Abstract:
When disaster occurs, an authority explains the severity and gives citizens the choice to
leave or stay. People complain they are not told enough regarding specifics that affect
their safety. I propose a model explaining why an authority is vague due to its understanding
of the citizens pessimism. While an authority may decide the disasters severity
merits evacuation, a citizens definition of high risk may be different. To maximize its
expected payoff, the government speaks vaguely to play off the citizens emotions and
realign incentives. As the governments payoffs change in magnitude, its inclination to
induce certain citizen action changes.
