Carrots and Sticks: Fertility Effects of China's Population Policies

Abstract

For 20 years following 1948, average total fertility per woman in China hovered just above six children. The year 1970 marked the beginning of persistent fertility declines. By 1980, the rate had dropped to 2.75, and scine 1992 it has remained under 2 (Peiyun Peng 1996). while some of this transition can be accounted for by broad socioeconome developments (e.g., T. Paul Schultz and Yi Zeng, 1995; Junshen Zhang, 1990), the extent to which it is attributable to China's unique population policies remains controversial. This paper analyzes household data from the 1992 Household Economy and Fertility Survey (HEFS) to provide the first direct microeconomic empiracle evidence on the efficacy of these policies.