Abstract:
The Sandhills region, located in central North Carolina, is expected to experience
dramatic population growth in the next 5 years. Population growth triggers urbanization, which
may result in impairment of local water bodies. This study applied GIS analysis and the
Environmental Protection Agency’s Analytical Tools Interface for Landscape Assessments
(ATtILA) to investigate the effects of alternative patterns of future urban development on water
quality in the Sandhills region. GIS tools, along with considerations for population growth and
future planned roads, were used to develop two scenarios for future land use: “Less Sprawl” and
“More Sprawl.” The “Less Sprawl” refers to a case of land cover associated with high housing
density, 9 units per acre, and new developments occurring near existing urban developments and
major roads. The “More Sprawl” scenario is represented by lower housing densities and more
dispersed new developments. Then ATtILA was applied to model relative changes for nitrogen
and phosphorus area loadings in 12-digit hydrologic units between each scenario. Finally, the
site ranking was developed to identify areas of the highest concern. The ranking was based on
the projected level of impact of urban growth on the water quality and the amount of
conservation areas in each hydrologic unit.
