Nicholas School of the Environment

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10161/52

Master's projects by Nicholas School of the Environment students, including the Duke Marine Laboratory.

The masters project is done in partial fulfillment of the degree requirements for the professional Master of Environmental Management or the Master of Forestry degree. While the MP may include original laboratory or field research, it may also take the form of management plans, handbooks, educational curricula, or other such products. Each student is advised by a faculty member who reviews and approves the project prior to completion.

A masters projects that is original research should not be as large as a masters thesis although it should be of publishable quality but not necessarily comprehensive enough to stand alone as a publication. A masters projects that does not follow the usual format for scientific research should follow a framework that is considered good practice in an appropriate field.

Duke migrated to an electronic-only system for masters projects between 2006 and 2010. As such, projects completed between 2006 and 2010 may not be part of this system, and those created before 2006 are not hosted here except for a small number that have been digitized.

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Now showing 1 - 9 of 9

Open Access
A Time Series Regression Analysis of Future Climate
(2012-04-23) Rudulph, Jake
Current approaches to climate modeling, including environmental simulation, may not be able to generate actionable results for a few decades yet. Over the last 50 years, methods attempting to capture and predict states of the climate system have flourished and diversified. However, many such models are subject to errors and uncertainty arising from parameterization problems, the obligate characterization of poorly understood phenomena, and high capacity requirements stemming from the incredible computing power needed. As the window for meaningful actions towards altering the climate change trajectory closes, we should consider the use of simple methods that generally predict the conditions of the future climate. For my analysis, I developed a time-series regression analysis of land surface trends in precipitation and near-surface temperature. For each global 0.5º land surface grid, values for 1901-2009 baseline means were calculated, and 2050 values were predicted using time series regression models for each of four historical data subsets. Average predicted warming across the subsets range from 0.89 ºC to 5.8 ºC above the baseline, with high northern latitudes predicted to experience the most warming. Precipitation is predicted to follow the “wet getting wetter, dry getting dryer” paradigm, with average predicted changes across the subsets ranging from 3.2% to 26% above the baseline.
Open Access
Climate change induced changes in moisture availability in eastern Wyoming ranchlands with management recommendations for adaptation
(2008-04-25T20:24:54Z) Fox, Rob
In the future there is an expectation for climate change to have impacts on both natural systems and agricultural enterprises. A number of studies have been conducted for the purpose of determining the effects of a changing climate on agricultural enterprises, but most of these studies are large scale in their scope and give non-specific recommendations for adaptation. In the United States much of agriculture, including ranching, requires large capital shifts to change their products and as such they need to have more specific advice as to how to respond. Having more specific advice today also means that individuals in agriculture can start planning to adapt today, rather than being surprised a few decades from now. This project utilizes historical climate information and projections of future temperature and precipitation based on IPCC regional expectations and local climate variability. These projected values were used in two versions of the Thornwaite moisture balance model to calculate a range of possible changes for moisture availability from 2009 to the year 2100. The estimated changes in available moisture (potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture, atmospheric moisture deficit, etc.) were compared to the baseline values to determine the decrease from normal values. The literature was searched to determine the amount of decrease in moisture availability that would likely result in ecological drought and hinder production. The evidence indicates that there will be varying degrees of diminishing of available moisture dependent upon the amount of temperature increase. Because of the range of possible impacts, a variety of management practice recommendations are included, as well as mechanisms to monitor the climate more carefully to better spot droughts as they begin. For scenarios with severe shifts in the climate, recommendations are made to make strong changes in their production methods or the uses of the land.
Open Access
Finding the Opportunities in the Climate Change Consulting Industry
(2011-04-29) Zander, Elizabeth; La, Monica; Jiménez, Roberto
The goal of this report, which was commissioned by Kristel Dorion of EnergetixClimate, is to identify present and future opportunities in the U.S. climate change consulting industry. Additionally, this paper endeavors to fully understand the complex scientific, political and economic relationships between climate change and business. Our research relies on the qualitative review of over a hundred sources drawing from government papers, market reports, peer reviewed publications and periodicals. Additionally, to test and support the accuracy of our findings, we conducted a survey of professionals with expertise related to climate change. This report provides our client with knowledge that can be used to develop an effective strategy for her climate change consulting firm.
Open Access
Green Plus - Beyond Certification
(2011-04-29) Noyes, Catherine
The mission of the Institute for Sustainable Development’s Green Plus program is to democratize triple bottom line sustainability by making sustainability education and practices more accessible to small enterprises across the United States. This impact assessment examines the success of Green Plus in fulfilling its mission by analyzing qualitative interviews from ten participating organizations in different industries and areas of the country, survey results from more than 30 current Green Plus participants, and the results of a survey of a control group of comparable small enterprises not involved in the program. The impact assessment indicates that participants have made significant improvements to their sustainable practices and policies over their tenure in the program, and that participants are generally satisfied with their involvement.
Open Access
Guidebook for Domestic Forest Landowners in the Emerging Low-Carbon Economy
(2010-04-30T15:39:58Z) Hasson, Tomer
A new low-carbon economy is approaching. While the federal government provides needed incentives in the development of clean energy to stimulate this emerging economy, currently only states and regions have implemented a comprehensive program which sends to markets a signal as to the price of carbon. However, when a federal program is enacted it will inherently have winners and losers, determined by market dynamics, regulatory structure and political preference. Forestry looks to be a winner as forest offsets – activities which sequester carbon in forested land beyond business-as-usual – will play a critical role. As such, educating landowners to the opportunities of offsets is a fundamental first step in the development a robust and effective climate change program. This masters project, crafted from a literature review and informal interviews, develops an educational Guidebook which introduces U.S. forest landowners to the methodologies, responsibilities and costs of a possible federally administered forestry offset program, as based from the Clean Energy Partnerships Act of 2009, its likely legislative vehicle. The Guidebook also serves as the basis to develop a summary document to potentially be circulated by the U.S. Forest Service and the American Forest Foundation to landowners and foresters. It provides recommendations as to the content of the summary document as well as how to best facilitate its dissemination.
Open Access
Hydrologic variation and lake sediments: a reconstruction of the Bolivian Lowlands over the last 5,500 years
(2011-04-29) Carnes, Allyson
Sediment cores raised from the shallow floor of Lake Opabusu in the Bolivian Gran Chaco record 5500 years of hydrologic change in the surrounding region. Sediment samples were analyzed for their organic carbon and nitrogen contents and stable isotopic ratios as well as for their CaCO3 contents. These analyses indicate a general trend from drier to wetter conditions from the mid-Holocene to present. This trend is consistent with changes observed in the northern Bolivian lowlands and in the adjacent tropical Andes. Accompanying the increase in precipitation, the C/N ratio and 13C content of sedimentary organic matter indicate an apparent trend from algal to terrestrial sources as well as a possible increase in C3 plants at the expense of drought-tolerant C4 plants. Other studies done in the neighboring Altiplano and Amazon regions corroborate the movement toward wetter conditions, and work done in the Bolivian Amazon supports the idea of a shift of the type and amount of vegetative cover in Lake Opabusu's watershed. This trend toward wetter conditions is likely governed by an orbitally-forced increase in summer insolation. The higher insolation at present intensifies the South American monsoon resulting in greater precipitation and higher lake levels; drier mid-Holocene conditions coincided with lower summer insolation. Several, but not all, general circulation model simulations, suggest that the future climate of the study region will be significantly drier and warmer by the end of the 21st century. Both changes would contribute to a negative water balance and it is likely that Lake Opabusu will dry completely in the near future. Although the lake has shrunk and expanded during the last century (as seen in historic air photos), there is no evidence within the sediment core, that the lake has previously desiccated to the depth of the core site at any time in the past five millennia.
Open Access
LEED vs. ENERGY STAR: A Cost/Benefit Analysis of Sustainability Labels for Commercial Buildings
(2011-04-22) Hiser, Stephen
Existing commercial buildings are at the forefront of efforts to address climate change through the implementation of energy efficiency upgrades and other sustainability measures. These efforts have been supported by both public and private organizations, and appear to be gaining momentum as the United States continues to search for ways to make its existing and future infrastructure more sustainable. As a result of the push for more green buildings, many real estate investors have elected to pursue sustainability labels for their existing building portfolios, including the ENERGY STAR rating and Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design - Existing Buildings: Operations & Maintenance (LEED-EBOM) certification. These labels are designed to certify and verify a commercial building’s operating efficiency with respect to sustainability and environmental impact. There is much industry speculation over whether these labels contribute to overall building value for the investor, and if other intangible benefits exist for owners/operators and/or building occupants. This project attempts to provide institutional real estate investors, such as real estate investment trusts (REITs), with general guidelines for selecting one of the aforementioned sustainability labels based on its potential contribution to building value and possible reductions in carbon dioxide emissions attributable to building operations. Analyses were conducted using fundamental real estate valuation models and industry data to evaluate financial and environmental costs and benefits associated with the ENERGY STAR and LEED-EBOM building labels. Financial costs and benefits were analyzed using the direct capitalization valuation model, as well as simple and discounted payback models. Other materials and resources associated with the ENERGY STAR and/or LEED-EBOM labels contributing to other possible benefits were analyzed qualitatively. The results of these analyses indicate that both the ENERGY STAR and LEED-EBOM labels may increase overall building value, while reducing operations-based carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, the results reveal that one label cannot be deemed absolutely superior to the other, and that selection depends upon other factors specific to the investor and/or building project. Based on these findings, a set of general guidelines has been provided to assist real estate investors evaluate the merits and drawbacks associated with the ENERGY STAR and LEED-EBOM sustainability labels for existing commercial buildings. It is my hope that these guidelines will enable real estate investors to make sound financial and environmental decisions when implementing strategies to make existing commercial building operations more sustainable.
Open Access
Predicting the Spread of White-Nose Syndrome in Bats: A Strategy for Prioritizing Resources
(2013-04-25) Ihlo, Christy M.
In 2006, cavers near Albany, New York first documented a few hibernating bats with a curious white fungus growing on their muzzles. Over the next seven winters, the aptly named white-nose syndrome (WNS) has decimated bat populations throughout the eastern United States, causing average declines of over 70%. The migration of WNS westward into regions with higher bat diversity and more extensive cave systems has potential catastrophic consequences for species populations and the ecosystem services they provide. Predicting areas particularly susceptible to WNS as well as potential pathways for transmission of its fungal spores across the U.S. can inform targeted management practices. However, data on bat population sizes, locations, and dynamics is scarce. This analysis uses the limited data available to highlight areas of particular concern. Susceptibility to WNS infection at the county level was calculated using three variables: number of potential roost sites, bat species, and approximated cave temperature. Potential pathways of spore transmission were identified using susceptibility ratings and estimates of past dispersal distances. The results identify counties of interest in the Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest as well as a potential corridor facilitating transport of fungal spores into western states from Oklahoma and north Texas to eastern Colorado. Targeting these areas for future research and monitoring efforts could be an efficient use of limited resources and potentially curtail the impacts of this devastating epizootic.
Open Access
Prospects of Carbon Dioxide Emissions at a Power Company in Korea
(2009-04-17T19:17:06Z) Choi, Jongshin
Issues on green house gas emissions and climate change are principle global concerns which should be addressed urgently. Among the emitters, power generation sector is the most critical point source of CO2. In fact, many current countermeasures of climate change are focused on the power generation sector, which may imply that the successful action in this area would contribute to the mitigation of climate change substantially. At the same time, it would be consequential to recognize the diverse situations of each nation’s power industry to approach this global task with more collaboration. At this point, it seems to be practical to examine the CO2 emissions trends for a certain existing power company in Korea, a developing country, while an OECD member. For my research, I have selected the Korea East-West Power co. Ltd (EWP), one of the five major thermal power companies in Korea and analyzed during a time period between 2007 and 2030. According to the results, CO2 is projected to increase 60% during this time period with Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. Even with the renewable energy scenario, the CO2 increase is 32%, which might imply that CO2 reduction for this company would be very complicated task in the near future mainly because of the expected economic growth, high efficiency of existing plants and lack of low carbon power source. Currently, innovative technologies from the industry and energy conservation efforts from the public should be combined together. In terms of technology, renewable energy and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) should be on the priority. As for costs, coal-fired power and nuclear power plants have turned out to be more competitive. While, renewable energy has been proved to be an expensive choice, this power source is expected to gain competitiveness as extensive researches and supports are invested in this field.

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Browsing Nicholas School of the Environment by Advisor "Baker, Paul A"