Browsing by Author "Bachman, Joseph"

Now showing 1 - 8 of 8
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    An Examination of the Relationship between the Conservation Reserve Program and Stumpage Prices in the South
    (2022-04-22) Smith, Cullen
    Declines in stumpage prices have been linked to the Conservation Reserve Program, which may have influenced overall planting volume, and thus, supply, in the South since inception in 1986. This project investigates historic trends in planting volumes across private, industrial, and public dimensions in the 20th century and reports key findings on the relationship between those developments and shifts in demand and volatility in stumpage prices. Results indicate that (1) variation in pine sawtimber stumpage correlates more to demand drivers than acreage planted while (2) pine pulpwood stumpage prices are more correlated to acreage planted than to shifts in demand. While these results illuminate the overall impact of acreage planted on stumpage prices, additional findings indicate that the Conservation Reserve Program did not meaningfully contribute to an oversupply over operational inventory in the South
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    Analysis of the Feasibility and Efficacy of Sustainable Pollinator Bee Certifications for Almond Producers in California
    (2020-04-22) McNamara, Emily
    California’s almond pollination period is the largest pollination event in the world due to the vast almond acreage spanning the state and the crop’s dependence on pollination by managed honey bees. Since 1996, almond acreage in the state has increased fourfold from 428,000 to 1,700,000 acres. California supplies 80% of the world’s almonds, and 70% of US honey bee hives are transported to the state each year to meet the pollination demand. However, managed honey bee populations continue to decline nationwide, which threatens the almond industry. Experts attribute this decline to pesticide toxicity, lack of diverse and abundant nutrient and pollen sources, and stress from transportation. Several scientifically supported farm management practices show efficacy in protecting and supporting managed honey bee populations in almond orchards. Current analyses show that a majority of almond producers have not adopted these bee-friendly practices. By analyzing the feasibility and attractiveness of certification systems to almond producers in California, this project examines the opportunity to use a certification to incentivize growers to adopt recommended practices to support managed honey bee health. Results indicate that almond producers desire a bee-friendly certification yet confirm that bee-friendly practices are not widely adopted. Further, there is evidence that adoption rates and barriers for implementing bee-friendly practices differ by region, suggesting the need for a new certification that is both effective in supporting pollinator health and feasible for growers to implement.
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    Ecological and Financial Suitability of Sites for Long-Term Oak Management in Western North Carolina
    (2021-04-30) Scott, Michael
    For thousands of years, oak species have been the dominant canopy species in eastern and central United States hardwood forests. Oaks (Quercus spp.) provide myriad ecological services and arguably comprise the most valuable hardwood timber genus in the eastern US. In recent decades, however, research shows that oaks are declining in density and being outcompeted by fast growing species like yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera) and red maple (Acer rubrum). Due to oak fire tolerance, and ability to withstand droughts and poor soil conditions, Quercus promises to be a vital genus for climate resiliency. Western North Carolina has historically supported expansive oak dominated forests, and organizations are now concerned about protecting this valuable ecosystem. This project sought to identify land in western North Carolina that is ecologically and financially suitable for oak management and to understand the following questions: 1) Where is oak management ecologically viable? 2) What is the financial potential for oak management? 3) Where can loggers access timber? This was accomplished by conducting a survey and literature review about logger accessibility in the mountains, creating an oak management prioritization map and GIS tool using logger data and oak ecological requirements, and a financial analysis of the profitability of oak silviculture prescriptions. The results will help The Nature Conservancy (TNC) identify high priority areas to initiate oak management systems. With careful planning, oak management can be financially viable in western North Carolina.
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    Embedding Climate Change in Strategic Investment Decision-Making: Developing a Global Timber Resource Constraint Under Climate Scenarios
    (2020-04-24) Jia, Fanqi; Lam, Rosanne; Monsarrat, Julia; Tan, Cai May
    Climate change is a growing risk to the private sector. Research has shown that today’s financial assets at risk from climate change total between US$2.5 trillion and $24.2 trillion by 2100 . To mitigate this, our client, Ortec Finance, provides information to their clients on the macro-economic risks from climate change to inform their investment decisions. Our team helped Ortec Finance refine their Systemic Climate Risk-Aware Scenarios Sets by developing a natural resource constraint for the forestry sector to improve the accuracy of GDP impact projections. We worked with our strategic research partner, CICERO, to produce impact functions that showcase micro-economic changes in regional forest product markets under different climate scenarios. Our team developed a methodology and compiled a robust dataset capturing changes in available timber volume in country-level planted forests under baseline, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Available timber volume in temperate forests is predicted to increase under RCP2.6 compared to baseline. We also demonstrate that under RCP2.6, some regions experience an increase in forest product price and production value. These regions include Africa, Eastern Asia and Latin America after adjusting for changes in economic value and demand.
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    Evaluating the Relationship Between Timber and Forage Yields in a Loblolly Pine-Switchgrass Silvopastoral System
    (2020-04-22) Carroll, Colin
    As forest and agricultural landowners look to increase revenue streams and diversify risk, agroforestry systems could be viable land use options. Silvopasture is an agroforestry system that integrates the production of timber and livestock. Silvopasture is practiced globally and has great potential in the US South. Implementation of silvopastoral systems can vary, depending on landowner objectives. This investigation focuses on the relationship between timber (loblolly) and forage (switchgrass) yields for a non-industrial private landowner in Robeson County, NC. Managing for both silvopasture products presents establishment challenges and a nuanced understanding of how tree growth will affect forage yields over time. With careful planning, it appears that a silvopastoral system can be designed in which landowners can meet their objectives and balance yields from both products. In addition, the achievement of financial diversification through integration of both systems might be possible.
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    Getting to Liquidity: Determining Hunting Lease Prices using Predictive Analytics
    (2022-04-20) Christensen, Jamie
    Land leasing for hunting has historically been conducted with little more than a handshake. In response, digital marketplaces provide tools and establish trust for landowners to connect with outdoor enthusiasts seeking hunting leases. In the early stages of these marketplaces, with limited land supply and use demand, establishing accurate pricing for the hunting leases is challenging. This project seeks to understand if a predictive land pricing capability can be developed for long-term hunting leases on land available in one such two-sided marketplace, Outdoor Access. Analysis of paid recreational leases on hunting listings from 2020 identified key attributes that contributed to the price of these leases. Using publicly available spatial data, a linear regression model was developed to assign predictive lease prices to hunting listings in 2021. While the model failed to predict accurate lease prices, it supported Outdoor Access negotiations of final lease prices with landowners and hunters.
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    Health Forests: Scaling Up Urban Forests as a Health Response
    (2022-04-21) Toker, Rachel
    In the eastern United States, urban lifestyles, conditions, and constraints are causing a rise in chronic diseases like heart disease, stroke, and diabetes, which cost trillions of dollars annually to treat. Given the importance of forests for ecological restoration, this study explores whether regenerating native forest patches that incorporate health treatments (or “Health Forests”) in at-risk urban neighborhoods -- as a unified place-based response -- can treat these diseases more cost-effectively while accessing healthcare funding sources to improve environmental outcomes. The study suggests that Health Forests, distributed at large enough scale, could improve health outcomes and restore regional ecosystems at substantial cost savings. Nature experiences lower blood sugar, blood pressure, and cortisol levels, and they improve concentration, immune function, and heart rate variability; however, focused medical research showing treatment efficacy is still needed to enable corporate healthcare payers to justify funding this effort. This study finds that, if creating and operating Health Forests causes even a 20% net reduction of annual covered medical expenditures due to chronic diseases, corporate healthcare payers could reap substantial financial benefits from doing so.
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    The Future of Coffee Production in a Changing Climate – Will Demand Outpace Supply?
    (2021-04-28) Corwin, Garrett; Feng, Phoenix; Johnson, Kathryn; Naghavi, Sara
    The coffee sector is valued at $102 billion, but its future growth is at risk of a supply deficit due to climate change. Conservation International (CI) is a global environmental nonprofit organization dedicated to preserving forested and protected land from future coffee expansion. To achieve CI’s goal, a methodology was developed to project coffee supply into 2050, considering changing bioclimatic and social conditions for Brazil and Vietnam’s coffee industries. Estimated supply was forecasted based on quantifiable variables. For variables that were only qualifiable, their influence on production was analyzed using magnitude and direction. Results show numerous bioclimatic and social parameters negatively affect coffee production, the most profound being increases in atmospheric temperature. Our work will continue to be augmented with additional research to understand the interaction and quantifiable effects of these variables on future production and forest/protected land encroachment. This project additionally outlines high-level management and investment recommendations to incentivize industry action.