Browsing by Author "Brinkerhoff, R Jory"

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    Empiric antibiotic treatment of erythema migrans-like skin lesions as a function of geography: a clinical and cost effectiveness modeling study.
    (Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis, 2013-12) Lantos, Paul M; Brinkerhoff, R Jory; Wormser, Gary P; Clemen, Robert
    The skin lesion of early Lyme disease, erythema migrans (EM), is so characteristic that routine practice is to treat all such patients with antibiotics. Because other skin lesions may resemble EM, it is not known whether presumptive treatment of EM is appropriate in regions where Lyme disease is rare. We constructed a decision model to compare the cost and clinical effectiveness of three strategies for the management of EM: Treat All, Observe, and Serology as a function of the probability that an EM-like lesion is Lyme disease. Treat All was found to be the preferred strategy in regions that are endemic for Lyme disease. Where Lyme disease is rare, Observe is the preferred strategy, as presumptive treatment would be expected to produce excessive harm and increased costs. Where Lyme disease is rare, clinicians and public health officials should consider observing patients with EM-like lesions who lack travel to Lyme disease-endemic areas.
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    Geographic Expansion of Lyme Disease in the Southeastern United States, 2000-2014.
    (Open Forum Infect Dis, 2015-12) Lantos, Paul M; Nigrovic, Lise E; Auwaerter, Paul G; Fowler, Vance G; Ruffin, Felicia; Brinkerhoff, R Jory; Reber, Jodi; Williams, Carl; Broyhill, James; Pan, William K; Gaines, David N
    Background.  The majority of Lyme disease cases in the United States are acquired on the east coast between northern Virginia and New England. In recent years the geographic extent of Lyme disease has been expanding, raising the prospect of Lyme disease becoming endemic in the southeast. Methods.  We collected confirmed and probable cases of Lyme disease from 2000 through 2014 from the Virginia Department of Health and North Carolina Department of Public Health and entered them in a geographic information system. We performed spatial and spatiotemporal cluster analyses to characterize Lyme disease expansion. Results.  There was a marked increase in Lyme disease cases in Virginia, particularly from 2007 onwards. Northern Virginia experienced intensification and geographic expansion of Lyme disease cases. The most notable area of expansion was to the southwest along the Appalachian Mountains with development of a new disease cluster in the southern Virginia mountain region. Conclusions.  The geographic distribution of Lyme disease cases significantly expanded in Virginia between 2000 and 2014, particularly southward in the Virginia mountain ranges. If these trends continue, North Carolina can expect autochthonous Lyme disease transmission in its mountain region in the coming years.