Browsing by Author "Cook, Philip J"
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Item Open Access 911, Is There an Emergency? The Effects of Gentrification on 911 Calls in Durham, NC(2021-02) Vila, AudreyIn recent years, urbanization in the United States has led to the displacement of low-income, minority communities for middle and high-income individuals, a process termed gentrification. Scholars debate the benefits and consequences of these changes for the existing populations. One possible effect is the changing of expectations and norms in city neighborhoods as the population shifts. Similarly, it raises questions about the interactions between new populations and existing residents. The following analysis uses urban block groups and Calls to Service data in Durham County between 2006 and 2018. According to established indicators of gentrification, Durham block groups are gentrifying within this time period with increased population, decreased Black populations, increased rent, increased education levels, and increased income. Importantly, the majority of Durham’s urban block groups are experiencing an influx of Hispanic residents, which is different from previous gentrification trends. Next, the paper assesses implications from previous literature that with population mixing, conflict from changing norms and perceptions would lead to increased conflict and result in greater use of the police for minor incidents. The paper uses simple linear regression with all indicators on a dependent variable that measures per capita call frequency. For 911 noise complaints, disturbances, alcohol and drug incidents, and suspicion calls, the regression results demonstrate that gentrification’s common indicators did not correlate with increased calls. The same result is found when focusing on block groups generally susceptible to the effects of gentrification. Therefore, the paper concludes that the city of Durham did not experience an increase in disturbance calls with gentrification as predicted by the literature, providing important information as the city continues to grow.Item Open Access Birthdays, Schooling, and Crime: New Evidence on the Dropout-Crime Nexus(2013-02) Cook, Philip J; Kang, SongmanItem Open Access Childhood Obesity, Development, and Self-Regulation in Girls: Three Essays(2013) Gearing, Maeve EThis dissertation encompasses three essays which examine the development of obesity in black and white girls and its responses to interventions.
The first chapter asks the question, how does obesity develop in girls? Using the National Growth and Health Study (NGHS), a longitudinal study of 2400 girls from age 9 to age 18, this chapter aims to address gaps in knowledge about the development and persistence of obesity in girls. Analyses using multivariate regression and growth-mixture modeling describe trajectories of body mass change in children and their correlates. Results suggest that obesity in children begins early and persists in most cases--BMI at age 17 is, on average, 1.3 times BMI at age 9. However, change does occur; 0.8 percent of the sample move from being obese at age 9 to healthy weight at age 17, and 2.2 percent of the sample make the reverse journey from healthy weight to obese. Where change occurs, it is most commonly seen among those who socio-demographically were anomalies among their body mass cohort at age 9. These results emphasize the importance of early interventions as well as the need for more study into body mass mutability in population subsamples.
The second chapter investigates 1) what motivates children to pursue weight loss; and 2) what aspects of interventions may most effectively support healthy child motivations and program success. These questions are qualitatively studied among a sample of 45 obese girls aged 9 to 13 girls participating in a behavior modification intervention. In total, 106 interviews were conducted. All of the girls in the study were interested in losing weight, most commonly in order to fit in (n=11), reduce teasing (n=10), or express particular social identities (n=6). However, not all of the girls were able to translate this desire to lose weight into a healthy and effective lifestyle change motivation. Several factors were associated with adopting healthy motivation and behavior, including familial involvement, self-regulation skills, non-social weight desires, realistic weight loss goals, and clear messages about body ideals. Other program protocols also supported motivation during difficult periods for those who adopted healthy motivation, including nutrition information, incentives, lack of physician judgment, and patient autonomy. Finally, two other potential program protocols were mentioned by girls in the study as useful aids. More support services, particularly during the summer, and more information on the expected course of weight loss could, these girls argued, help sustain motivation. Together, these findings suggest a role for self-regulation theory in the design of lifestyle change motivation and for more directly addressing expectations in weight loss treatment.
The third chapter investigates the relationship between self-worth and obesity among girls, again using the National Growth and Health Study. Results indicate a negative relationship between self-worth and obesity across all participants. However, this relationship only has predictive power from early body mass to later self-worth and self-worth trajectories. That is, higher body mass at age 9 predicts lower self-worth at age 17 and decreases in self-worth from age 9 to age 17. The effect is larger for Caucasians and for those in young adolescence but persists across the sample. Mechanisms for this relationship are also investigated, and some support found for stigma. Analyses using self-worth components suggest most of the self-worth effects are driven by social concerns, while mediational analyses suggest social body image pressures explain the relationship between global self-worth and body mass. Overall, the findings suggest a complex interrelation between self-worth and body mass in girls, meriting further investigation as well as a more nuanced discussion in the public realm.
Item Open Access Confronting the Status Quo: Raising the Age of Juvenile Jurisdiction in North Carolina(2012-05-03) Kaplan, DavidPOLICY QUESTION (p.1) How can the case for increasing juvenile-status age in North Carolina be presented most effectively in the political arena? I. INTRODUCTION (p.1) North Carolina is one of two states (the other being New York) that end juvenile jurisdiction at age sixteen. This means that all sixteen and seventeen-year olds are processed as adults in the criminal justice system. Trying and sentencing youth as adults in the criminal system has serious and broad consequences for the offenders, their families, the criminal justice systems, and society at large. Youth in adult facilities are more prone to abuse; are less likely to receive health treatment and educational services; are more likely to join gangs and engage in violent behavior, and are more likely to recidivate. Further, adult convictions hinder access to employment and educational opportunities—two key sources that reduce the tendency to engage in criminal behavior. II. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT (p.4) The age of juvenile court jurisdiction in North Carolina is an old and contentious issue with much at stake. North Carolina set the maximum age of juvenile jurisdiction at age sixteen in 1919, over 90 years ago. The juvenile-status age has been looked at a number of times; however, all proposals to increase the status age have failed (See Figure 2, pg. 16 for synopsis). Most recently, proposals in 2007 and 2009 faced opposition from district attorneys, sheriffs and police chiefs, and the Retail Merchant Association. Opponents cited the high financial costs to transition the 16 and 17-year-old cohort to the juvenile system, arguing that the juvenile system is already overcrowded, underfunded, and understaffed. Although the two separate cost-benefit-analyses conducted indicated a substantial long-term net gain from increasing the juvenile-status age, no change was made. The policymaking process is adversarial, where competing agendas and conflicting interests and perspectives can transcend rational or objective solutions to particular problems. Influential actors and interest groups often oppose policy initiatives irrespective of what evidence and policy research indicates. Opposition to raising the age in North Carolina is indeed still significant and presents a legitimate barrier to successful legislative action. III. POLITICAL ANALYSIS (p.17) A Political Analysis involves looking closely at the actors in the policy environment, disaggregating them, identifying how they exert influence towards or against policy initiatives, and developing strategies to effectively communicate and interact with them. Thus, by examining the primary actors in the policy environment (through in-depth targeted stakeholder interviews) and disaggregating and identifying their values, concerns, and the interests that motivate their positions, I gained insight into the kinds of compromises and political bargaining that can be made to effectively present the case for increasing the juvenile status-age in the political arena. The primary stakeholders and influential actors identified are district attorneys, sheriffs and police chiefs, and the Retail Merchant Association. The conclusions derived from the political analysis are organized into three categories: (1) Resources & Hollow Promises, (2) Different Perspectives: Different Realities, and (3) Access to Records Resources & Hollow Promises (p.18) A resource-constraint has been a consistent barrier to legislative action in regards to raising the age of juvenile jurisdiction. Shifting sixteen and seventeen year olds to the juvenile system from the adult system will indeed cost a lot of money. This was detailed in the CBAs from 2009 and 2011, and proponents certainly acknowledge the cost issue. Despite this acknowledgement however, interview data reveals a stringent skepticism toward the General Assembly in regards to providing necessary funding and resources. This skepticism is based on multiple previous experiences where the legislature failed to follow through with their agreements. Indeed, opponent skepticism toward the General Assembly in this light is a legitimate issue that proponents need to address appropriately and effectively in order to gain support from key influential stakeholders. Different Perspectives: Different Realities (p.20) In addition to citing an underfunded juvenile system, opponents also referred to the system as too lenient, alluding also to its poor performance in rehabilitating young offenders. There is a strong perception that being in a youth facility and in the custody of the juvenile system is “easier” than being in an adult prison—which, accordingly, encourage criminal behavior for young offenders. This could indeed be a matter of perception, and more research should be conducted in regards to claims and counterclaims about the actual “toughness” of the juvenile system. There is also the concern of violent young offenders avoiding adult court if the status age is increased. The current legislation that is to be heard however, does not suggest this to be the case. Violent offenses can still be transferred to the adult system. This demonstrates, in part, that opponents do not fully understand the Raise the Age bill, which addresses misdemeanors and low-level felonies. Judge Morey suggested that despite all the education that has taken place over the last decade, law enforcement and district attorneys still do not all realize that violent offenders can still be automatically tried and sentenced as adults. In turn, this signals a failure by proponents to adequately communicate and educate opposing stakeholders on the bill and what it entails. Access To Records (p.22) The Retail Merchant Association is an influential player in the political arena regarding this particular issue. The Association’s opposition to increasing the juvenile-status age is based on a legitimate issue, representing a particularly unique challenge in gaining their support to raise the age. The North Carolina business community is accustomed to having access to the criminal histories of the 16 and 17-year-old cohort. If the juvenile-status age were increased to 18, business entities would not have access to 16 and 17 year olds’ criminal histories—an age group that many businesses in North Carolina rely on—because under the law, juvenile records are sealed. Another component to issue involves tort law. Juries have previously held businesses liable for not screening their employees appropriately. Thus, having the ability to conduct background checks and screen potential employees is of paramount importance to the business community in North Carolina. IV. CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS (pp.24-26) There have been a series of proposals to change the age of juvenile jurisdiction over the last century. Opposition to changing the juvenile-status age has varied by group across time, but the lack of resources—funding, facilities, facility capacity and capabilities, personnel and related workforce, or any combination of these—has routinely formed the basis for excluding sixteen and seventeen year olds from the juvenile justice system. A resource-constraint issue is still at the heart of the debate today and there is a strong skepticism toward lawmakers among district attorneys and members of the law enforcement community in particular, based on past funding abandonments by the legislature. Perceptions of a lenient, underfunded and ineffective juvenile system among opposing stakeholders are also prevalent. District attorneys and the Retail Merchant Association are two of the strongest opponents to raising the age. Both coalitions have legitimate concerns regarding the bill to raise the age; however, their opposition can be neutralized using strategies of modification—a process that involves altering the policy proposal to align with stakeholder interests and preferences as a way to build support and neutralize opposition. This can occur through compromises and political bargaining. To present the most effective case for increasing the juvenile-status age in North Carolina, I recommend Ms. Katzenelson and the North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission do the following: (1) Tie legislation to an Appropriation Without the proper funding, increasing the juvenile-status age will not succeed in achieving its purpose. Shifting 16 and 17 year olds to the juvenile system to receive treatment and have access to educational opportunities will reduce recidivism and save taxpayers millions of dollars. However, the programs need to be implemented and supervised accordingly in order to make the impact they are designed to have. Requiring the “raise the age” bill to be tied to an appropriation will help satisfy legitimate concerns about inadequate resources. (2) Utilize Prosecutorial Waivers Modify the bill to appeal to prosecutors—a strong and influential coalition that currently opposes the bill. Enhancing DA discretion in their prosecutorial duties will give them more flexibility and control, satisfying their primary concerns. Gaining DA support will also help the implementation process. This recommendation should be considered carefully and the Committee should investigate the states that use this waiver. (3) Negotiate Terms & Conditions for Access to Criminal Histories for the Business Community Providing employer access to juvenile records under certain terms and conditions would substantially reduce opposition from the Retail Merchant Association. Access to records is their only and primary concern. Negotiating a practice that gives employers access while also protecting the privacy of the offender will not only eliminate this particular opposition, but it may also create buy-in and support. This modification represents a significant concession on the part of proponents and if not considered carefully, it could represent a pyrrhic victory where the fundamental purpose of raising the age is jeopardized. (4) Communicate & Educate Advocacy efforts must continue to educate all stakeholders, with special attention geared toward law enforcement. There are still a number of misperceptions, such as the leniency of the juvenile system and its ability to help rehabilitate young offenders. Stakeholders need to be convinced that these programs work when implemented and executed properly. Constant attention should be paid to the way advocacy groups in North Carolina discuss and frame this issue. In Connecticut, the campaign to raise the age faced similar opposition with members from the law enforcement community. One of their strategies was framing the issue in terms of public safety and investing in kids. While adolescent brain development is an important issue that supports increasing the status age, it is an argument that appeals to some, but not all stakeholders. Interview data suggests that this argument is not compelling for members of law enforcement and DA’s because it does not directly coincide with their primary concerns and daily activities.Item Open Access Cooperation and Clearance: Victim Cooperation in Shooting Crimes(2017-05-04) Ho, JeffreyThis thesis examined the factors affecting police clearance rates and citizen cooperation in investigations, particularly as they related to shooting crimes in Durham, North Carolina. Existing literature suggests that victim demographics and crime circumstances are limiting factors in police investigations and may influence the noncooperation of victims and witnesses. The study further explored these relationships through the use of statistical regression analyses of predictive factors for police clearance and victim cooperation in an examination of investigative case data and a qualitative analysis of police interview data. A secondary goal of the analysis was to provide insight and recommendations for reducing noncooperation in police investigations. Based on an examination of administrative data from the Durham Police Department records of shooting crimes in 2015, a multivariate logistic regression revealed that crime circumstances were highly associated with crime clearance. In addition, respondents who were male, racial and ethnic minorities, or between the ages of 20 and 30 were more likely to be uncooperative in police investigations. An analysis of semi-structured interviews with the Durham police department investigators assigned to the cases helped provide potential explanations for the noncooperation, including the presence of a pervasive culture of fear and the general mistrust in the police. I consequently proposed potential recommendations for improving citizen cooperation, such as through the use of community policing, providing credible relocation services for victims, and expanding staffing and resource availability.Item Open Access Correcting Misinformation on Firearms Injuries.(JAMA network open, 2022-12) Cook, Philip J; Parker, Susan TItem Open Access Determinants of Teenage Childbearing in the United States(2015) Tan, Poh LinThis dissertation consists of two original empirical studies on the determinants of teenage childbearing in the United States. The first study examines the impact of educational attainment on teenage childbearing, using school entry laws as an instrument for education and a highly detailed North Carolina administrative dataset that links birth certificate data to school administrative records. I show that being born after the school entry cutoff date affects educational success in offsetting ways, with a negative impact on years of education but positive impact on test scores. Using an IV regression strategy to distinguish the impacts of years of education and test scores, I show that both educational measures have negative impacts on teenage childbearing.
The second study examines potential causes of the decline in the U.S. teenage birth rate between 1991 and 2010. Using age-period-cohort models with Vital Statistics birth data and Census population counts, I show that the decline was driven by period changes in the early 1990s but by cohort changes between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s. I also use a difference-in-differences model to investigate the extent to which social policies in the 1970s-1980s can explain these cohort changes. The evidence suggests that while legalization of abortion for adult women and unilateral divorce laws had a significant impact on teenage birth rates in the 1990s-2000s, abortion legalization is unlikely to be a major explanation for the observed decline.
Item Open Access Firearm Homicide-Suicides in North Carolina: Evidence from the North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System, 2004-2014(2016-05-17) Kerber, RoseHomicide-suicides are a patterned type of violence that is distinct from other suicides and other homicides. The evidence presented in this analysis suggests that compared to both homicides and suicides, homicide-suicides are less reflective of personal problems experienced by the perpetrator and more reflective of troubled and abusive relationships between the perpetrator and the victim(s). The evidence suggests that perpetrators become maximally violent when they have lost control of a relationship. The intense fixation on the victim suggests that these incidents may be primarily homicidal. The suicidal act may be less premeditated than the homicide, and may instead reflect the perpetrator’s complete loss of control and inability to function without their primary relationship. Homicide-suicides are often preceded by a history of domestic violence and interaction with law enforcement. Interactions with law enforcement and the court system present key opportunities for intervention in abusive relationships that might prevent escalation. With better screening and robust policies that empower law enforcement and the court system to confiscate firearms from abusive individuals, hundreds of deaths could be prevented over the next decade.Item Open Access Pesticide Exposure Monitoring Among North Carolina Farmworkers(2011-04-16) Perkins, Jenniferi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Client Toxic Free NC is a 501(c)3 non-profit. Toxic Free NC works specifically on pesticide pollution, and although it focuses on North Carolina, it looks at pesticide use around the world. Toxic Free NC advocates for pesticide alternatives and for proper use of pesticides to avoid environmental contamination and exposure. Based on the conclusions of the Master’s Project, Toxic Free NC may advocate for legislation at the state level. Policy Question Should North Carolina adopt a cholinesterase-monitoring program to monitor and prevent pesticide exposure among farmworkers and their families? Overview Pesticide exposure among farmworkers and their families may present a serious problem in the State of North Carolina. Currently, California and Washington State stand alone in their use of cholinesterase monitoring to monitor pesticide exposure. These states test pesticide handlers. This project assesses the utility of such a program in North Carolina and evaluates other policy options for reducing pesticide exposure among the state’s farmworker population. Problem Summary Organophosphate pesticides are not only widely used but are also responsible for a number of cases of exposure. Exposure to organophosphate pesticides can result in depressed acetylcholinesterase (cholinesterase) levels. Cholinesterase is an enzyme necessary for proper nerve functioning. Depressed cholinesterase levels are considered a sign of over-exposure to pesticides and are also considered a problem in and of themselves. Although chronic pesticide exposure can cause severe health problems, including cancer, birth defects, neurological problems, and other concerns, little is known about the level of chronic pesticide exposure in one of the most exposed groups. Pesticide handlers, non-handler farmworkers, and their families are exposed to pesticides on a routine basis. However, the exact level of this exposure, or even reliable estimates of such exposure, is unknown. The problem may be particularly severe among the children of farmworkers, who may be exposed both in residue brought home by the farmworker and by being in contact with the crops themselves. The Worker Protection Standard, a federal law, has not been significantly modified since 1992. It does not include any provisions or guidance for children under the age of 12, despite the fact that younger children may accompany their parents in farmwork. The cholinesterase monitoring programs that do exist do not collect data that would indicate the exposure among children. Additionally, since they measure cholinesterase levels only for those pesticide handlers who have worked with pesticides for 30 or more hours in the past 30 days, their data cannot be used to estimate a dose-response relationship of pesticide exposure and cholinesterase depression. Moreover, the State of North Carolina does not have spare funding in the current economic and political climate. Any actions taken by the client, at least for the immediate future, will need to rely on alternate sources of funding. Goals Used to Evaluate Options The policy options outlined below will be evaluated based on their ability to meet each of these four goals. • Collect data on the size and scope of the problem. • Create an early intervention system. • Improve compliance with Worker Protection Standard. • Reduce pesticide exposure among pesticide handlers, farmworkers, and their families. Recommendation 1. Measure pesticide exposure among pesticide handlers, farmworkers, and non- handler/farmworker family members by use of a survey conducted in cooperation with an academic institution. Recommendations Contingent on Supportive Data from Recommendation 1 2. Modify the Worker Protection Standard. 3. Institute an education program for state government agency (Health and Human Services and Agriculture) personnel as well as medical practitioners serving the agricultural community. 4. Implement a cholinesterase-monitoring program. 5. Hire more compliance inspectors and increase the number of compliance visits. Conclusion Particularly in North Carolina, where the farmworker population is reasonably large and agriculture is an important industry, it is vital that the size and scope of any pesticide exposure issue be scientifically documented. Once the size and scope is established, action can be taken to reduce pesticide exposure as needed.Item Open Access Policy Considerations for Implementing Gun Liability Insurance in North Carolina(2014-04-18) Madan, AnuradhaEXECUTIVE SUMMARY Policy Question Would a gun liability insurance requirement reduce gun violence in North Carolina and ensure compensation for victims of gun violence? Specifically, how would a liability insurance requirement for concealed carry permit holders reduce gun violence and provide compensation for shooting victims? Problem (p. 3) Gun violence in the United States has declined in the last 20 years, but is still unacceptably high. In 2011 alone, over 32,000 people died as a result of firearms. That same year, over 3,500 North Carolinians were injured or killed in gun-related assaults and accidents. In response to the tragic events at Newtown, Connecticut, that resulted in the death of twenty children and six school personnel, several proposals were introduced in legislatures across the nation to curb gun violence. Among them was the proposal to require gun owners to purchase gun liability insurance. To date, nine states have considered mandatory gun liability insurance legislation. The primary goal of such legislation is to compensate victims of gun violence. Financial compensation for harm done is a well-established principle of our insurance law system. For decades, lawmakers have required drivers in their states to purchase automobile insurance to provide compensation for any damage or bodily injury their vehicles may cause. Gun liability insurance would work in a similar fashion. Firearms, even in the hands of responsible and law-abiding gun owners, increase the risk of serious injury to others. An insurance mandate for firearms would help shift the economic costs of gun violence away from victims and taxpayers and onto those who possess firearms. Currently, some victims of gun violence have access to monetary compensation, such as the tort system, victims compensation programs, homeowners insurance, automobile insurance, and National Rifle Association (NRA) sponsored insurance. However, these programs are inadequate, as some do not cover intentional acts of gun violence while others provide minimal and insufficient compensation. In any event, in most cases, there is no compensation because the shooter is unknown, or if known, is judgment proof. A secondary goal of a gun liability insurance mandate would be to reduce gun violence. By requiring gun owners to purchase liability insurance for their firearms, some high-risk people may be deterred from possessing an arsenal of dangerous weapons. Alternatives (p. 18) Lawmakers must consider the following policy options when considering a gun liability insurance mandate: • Should the mandate cover injuries and deaths resulting from (1) unintentional shootings only or (2) intentional and unintentional shootings? • Should the mandate apply to (1) concealed carry permit holders only or (2) to all gun owners in North Carolina? • Should the mandate apply to (1) new firearms purchased after the mandate is enacted or (2) to all firearms? Criteria (p. 21) • Cost-Benefit Analysis (Maximize compensation for victims and reduce gun violence, and minimize costs to insurers and gun owners) • Maximize Political Feasibility • Ensure Constitutionality Analysis (p. 22) The analysis seeks to balance compensation for victims and costs, political feasibility, and constitutionality of each policy option. All policy options will likely be deemed constitutional since neither of the alternatives restricts an individual’s right to possess a firearm for lawful purposes. • Alternative 1: Should the mandate cover injuries and deaths resulting from (1) unintentional shootings only or (2) intentional and unintentional shootings? In 2011, there were six times as many assaults as there were accidental shootings. The 20 unintentional firearm deaths accounted for only 1.1 percent of all manners and methods of violent death in North Carolina, whereas the 519 homicides accounted for nearly 29 percent. Thus, providing coverage for both intentional and unintentional shootings would maximize compensation for victims and would be most likely to reduce gun violence. Although the costs to insurers and gun owners would be higher under this option, they are likely to be small in comparison to the value of lives saved and the value of compensating innocent people injured by the misuse of firearms. A mandate that covers injuries and deaths resulting from intentional injuries is not going to be popular among insurers and lawmakers. Insurance companies have vocally opposed any scheme that would provide coverage for intentional acts. Insurers fear that insuring intentional acts would give individuals an incentive to commit violent acts. However, because it is unlikely that a shooter would use his own resources to compensate a victim, insuring intentional acts would not raise a moral hazard problem. • Alternative 2: Should the mandate apply to (1) concealed carry permit holders only or (2) to all gun owners in North Carolina? By the end of 2011, there were more than 240,000 concealed carry permit holders in North Carolina. Although the precise number of gun owners in North Carolina is unknown, estimates indicate that, at a minimum, North Carolina has about 1.2 million gun owners. Evidence also suggests that a significant number of gun-related assaults are committed by gun owners who do not possess a concealed carry permit. Although a mandate that applies to all gun owners would provide coverage for a greater number of gun violence victims, the costs of providing coverage to all gun owners would be higher than providing coverage for concealed carry permit holders alone. Since gun owners who do not possess a concealed carry permit commit a greater number of weapons-related assaults, insurers would likely have fewer claims to pay out if the mandate only applied to concealed carry permit holders. Concealed carry permit holders are already regulated by the state. Thus, mandating liability insurance for concealed carry permit holders is far more feasible than mandating insurance for all gun owners. • Alternative 3: Should the mandate apply to (1) new firearms purchased after the mandate is enacted or (2) to all firearms? A significantly small portion of gun injuries and deaths would be covered if the mandate were to apply to firearms purchased after the insurance scheme were implemented. The costs generated by insurers and gun owners would, however, be higher if the mandate applied to all firearms since insurance companies would be required to pay out significantly more claims. If the mandate only applied to new purchases, fewer gun owners would be implicated. Thus, an insurance scheme that applies to guns purchased after the date of enactment is likely to be more feasible. Recommendation (p. 30) I recommend that the gun liability insurance scheme (1) cover injuries and deaths from intentional and unintentional shootings, (2) apply to concealed carry permit holders only, and (3) apply to all firearms, purchased before and after the date of enactment. Moving Forward (p. 31) Before any gun liability scheme can be implemented in North Carolina, several more issues need to be resolved. For example, should the mandate provide compensation for pain and suffering, or merely medical expenses and funeral costs? What factors should insurance providers take into account when setting premiums? Should the mandate be modeled after victims compensation programs or the tort system?Item Open Access Program Evaluation of the Denver Police HALO Camera Surveillance System: A Geospatial Statistical Analysis of Crime(2012-04-17) Papazian, JohnThe Denver Police Department has recently implemented a new high-tech surveillance program to prevent crime throughout the city. The High Activity Location Observation (HALO) cameras are an improvement over traditional closed-circuit television cameras because they have full pivot and zoom capabilities that can transmit video to police headquarters in real time. The department has installed more than 100 HALO cameras at various high crime areas in Denver as of 2012. This investigation attempts a program evaluation of the surveillance system through a geospatial statistical analysis of crime. Although cameras have been installed across the city, this investigation focuses on cameras installed in Police District #6, which encompasses the central business district. This investigation establishes a statistically significant relationship between the installation of the HALO cameras and a reduction of thefts from motor vehicles in the viewshed of the cameras in Denver Police District #6. The difference-in-difference econometric approach is rigorous enough to infer causality in the relationship. Other categories of crime also may have been reduced due to the HALO cameras, but the statistical evidence is not strong enough to make a causal claim. Based upon the empirical results, I recommend three strategies: (1) collaborating with local BIDs to expand new HALO video cameras into other areas experiencing high levels of theft from motor vehicles, (2) upgrading the information system to cross-reference NIBRS crime incident data to actual arrests and convictions, and (3) implementing a randomized controlled experiment in the next phase of the HALO program.Item Open Access Projecting the Impacts of a Coerced Abstinence Probation Modification Program in North Carolina(2012-04-21) Richey, MaureenEXECUTIVE SUMMARY POLICY QUESTION (Page 7) The objective of this paper is to examine whether or not the North Carolina Department of Corrections should adopt a coerced abstinence model of probation modification similar to the Hawaii Opportunity Probation with Enforcement (HOPE) program that was piloted in Honolulu in 2004. HOPE appears to be phenomenally successful at reducing recidivism among drug-involved probationers. Reducing new crimes and probation violations among this sub-set of high-risk probationers in North Carolina could have substantial impacts on public safety and corrections spending. BACKGROUND (Page 7) The probation system in America, widely used as a cheaper and less severe alternative to incarceration for qualifying criminal offenders, is also widely considered to be ineffective at preventing new crimes. Probationers frequently re-offend which fails to meet the goals of probation, as defined by the American Probation and Parole Association: “to protect society and promote law-abiding behavior.” Some characteristics of the probation system may contribute to the high rate of recidivism. Because resources are often strained and probation officers are often over-burdened with caseloads, it becomes virtually impossible to sanction every probation violation. When probationers are sanctioned, for violations such as missed appointments or failed drug tests, punishments are often delayed and come after the accumulation of multiple violations. This being the case, offenders likely perceive the risks of violating probation as very low. A low risk perception, coupled with the tendency for crime to attract impulsive and reckless individuals, often leads to the choice to violate the terms of probation. Crime, as well as reckless, impulsive behavior, is also strongly linked to drug use. This link is backed up by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, which reports that about 30% of probationers in the United States are “current” drug users, compared to only 8.3% of the general population of American adults. Individuals using drugs are more likely to engage in crime either while under the influence of drugs, or for the purpose of getting money to buy drugs. As such, it stands to reason that reducing drug use will lead to a reduction in crime. Several programs in the United States have recently sought to address these shortcomings in the probation system and alter the underlying behavioral tendencies that lead to continued drug use and other probation violations. These programs focus around “swift and certain” sanctions for each probation violation. Rather than having a low risk of a severe sanction, they offer a high risk of a moderate sanction per violation. Examples of programs that address the link between drug use, impulsiveness, and crime include Intensive Supervision Probation, 24/7 Sobriety, drug courts, and coerced abstinence—typified by the HOPE program. This paper examines what might happen in North Carolina if the Department of Corrections adopted a coerced abstinence, HOPE-style program. DATA AND MEASUREMENT (Page 15) Data used to predict the impact that coerced abstinence might have in North Carolina come from published reports on the evaluation of HOPE in Hawaii and from the North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission. HOPE data come from a randomized controlled trial of the program done in 2007 that followed 493 probationers over a 12-month span of time starting in 2007. The North Carolina Sentencing Commission followed all 60,824 offenders released from prison or placed on probation in FY 2005/2006. This included 41,091 probationers, 12,622 of whom were labeled by the courts as being somehow “drug-involved.” Both datasets report on outcomes of interest, such as the probation revocation rate, re-arrest rate, incarceration, and continued drug use. They also report on background information that is useful for drawing comparisons between probationers in Hawaii and North Carolina, such as age, gender, race, prior criminal history, and risk assessment. PREDICTING THE IMPACT IN NORTH CAROLINA (Page 21) There are numerous limitations to attempting to predict the impacts of a HOPE-style program in North Carolina. Among these are latent background differences between the probationer populations in Hawaii and North Carolina, such as age, race, and criminal background. Additionally, the geographic, political, cultural, and other differences between states impact how such a program might work in different jurisdictions. Also, there are differences in how researchers tracked data between states. For example, Hawaii and North Carolina use different assessments to determine the risk of recidivism, and the available measures of prior criminal history, drug use, and other factors are tracked differently between states. Acknowledging the limitations in making predictions, it is possible to make tentative estimates of the potential impact of a coerced abstinence program on drug-involved offenders in North Carolina. Outcomes potentially include: • A 50% drop in technical probation revocations over 12 months. • A 55% reduction in the re-arrest rate of probationers over 12 months. • Up to a 91% reduction in drug crimes committed by drug-involved probationers in the first year of probation, or a 38% reduction in drug-offenses over all probationers. • Substantially fewer jail days served and reduced rates of incarceration among the treatment population. • Improved public safety. POLICY ANALYSIS (Page 28) Even though preliminary research suggests that coerced abstinence programs are successful at reducing recidivism and drug use among probationers, such a policy may face many obstacles. First, coerced abstinence is founded on principles of behavioral economics and cognitive psychology, which may make it difficult to explain to policy makers and the public. This lack of understanding may breed skepticism of the program. Coerced abstinence might also offend two important groups of people: drug treatment advocates and probation officers. HOPE and similar programs seem to suggest that simple incentives can lead to dramatic reductions in substance abuse without any therapeutic medical treatment. Thus, it may be viewed as ‘competition’ to traditional, medical methods of addiction treatment. Also, if coerced abstinence does not achieve the total buy-in of probation officers, they are unlikely to cooperate with the implementation of such a program. Unless sanctions are applied to each and every probation violation, a coerced abstinence system cannot work. Getting probation officers on board with such a program may be difficult, however, because of the perceived workload. The primary reason so many probation violations currently go unpunished is because of severe resource strains on probation departments. It would simply be too time consuming to sanction every violation. This problem must be addressed in order to achieve the cooperation of probation officers. Additionally, there is the question of how well a coerced abstinence program works in the long-term. Existing research on the topic is favorable, but limited in scope. It may be difficult to win popular support for a program with unknown long-term consequences. HOPE and other ongoing coerced abstinence program evaluations need to be watched carefully in the coming years in order to determine how well they work over longer periods of time. IMPLEMENTATION (Page 29) Successful implementation of a HOPE-style program in North Carolina requires certain program elements, broad-based stakeholder buy-in, and effective leadership. Fortunately, the RCT of HOPE included a process evaluation that addressed how each of these objectives was achieved in Honolulu. The necessary program elements, according to researchers include monitoring, guaranteed sanctions, a clear set of rules, an initial warning hearing, prompt hearings, drug treatment for those who continue to fail drug tests, and the capacity to pursue those who fail to appear for probation meetings. These program elements, combined with a visible public champion or leader to maintain support for such a program, are essential to successful implementation. Myriad stakeholders are also necessary to ensure success. Probation officers, judges, prosecutors, public defenders, court staff, sheriffs, and probationers themselves must all agree to cooperate with the terms of a coerced abstinence program in order for it to work. Any inconsistency will erode the perception of guaranteed sanctions.Item Open Access Public Support, Family Support, and Life Satisfaction of the Elderly: Evidence from a New Government Old-Age Pension in Korea(2012) Kim, Erin HyeWonPopulation aging is a global phenomenon occurring both in developed and less developed countries. While families are still playing an important role in providing support for elderly people, governments are also expanding their public old-age support programs in many societies. Public pensions are one of the major policy tools geared to social protection of the elderly. However, little is known about how the programs affect elders particularly in terms of their subjective well-being. Such effectiveness depends in part on the extent to which public pension income displaces or `crowds out' family elder support. Using the introduction of the Basic Old-Age Pension (BOAP), a non-contributory old-age pension in Korea, this dissertation examines the relationship among public support, family support, and life satisfaction of the elderly.
As an introductory chapter, chapter 1, "The continuing importance of children in relieving elder poverty: evidence from Korea," describes the actual financial status of elderly Koreans and the amount of financial support they receive from children. Analysis of the 2006 Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing shows that almost 70 per cent of Koreans aged 65 or more years received financial transfers from children and that the transfers accounted for about a quarter of the average elder's income. While over 60 per cent of elders would be poor without private transfers, children's transfers substantially mitigate elder poverty, filling about one quarter of the poverty gap. Furthermore, children's transfers to low-income parents tend to be proportionally larger, so elder income inequality is reduced by the transfers. Over 40 per cent of elders lived with a child and co-residence helps reduce elder poverty.
Using the introduction of BOAP, chapter 2, "Does money buy happiness?: Evidence from a new government pension in Korea," assesses how the program affected elders' life satisfaction. Notably, this study adds valuable evidence to the literature of whether money buys happiness, a question of great interest but notoriously difficult to answer given the difficulties associated with isolating income as a causal factor. To make the causal inference, this chapter utilizes a difference-in-difference research design and analyzes longitudinal data from the Korean Retirement and Income Study (KReIS). Results show that BOAP did raise elders' life satisfaction: annual benefits of 1,000 kW, approximately 1,000 U.S. dollars, raised elders' life satisfaction by 0.16-0.22 of one standard deviation and the effect was statistically significant.
Chapter 3, "Public support crowds out family support: Evidence from a new government pension in Korea," investigates how public financial provision affects family support. In particular, the present study provides a novel estimate of crowd-out by BOAP by using a combined measure of financial support and in-kind support received from all adult children regardless of their co-residence status with elderly parents. This paper also examines the impact on co-residence and is the first quasi-experimental study on the crowd-out question using data from an Asian nation. Results from difference-in-difference analyses of the KReIS data show that every $1 from the pension led to a 30-cent drop in children's support, netting a 70-cent increase in elders' income. The impact on the likelihood of elders' co-residing with children was positive but not statistically significant.
By showing that Korean children still play a crucial role in providing financial old-age security, chapter 1 demonstrates how important it is for the Korean government to design old-age policies that preserve the incentives for private assistance. The second chapter suggests that, at least in the context of modern-day Korea, pensions do buy happiness, or at least satisfaction. This finding suggests that researchers and policymakers need to pay further attention to public pensions as a tool to intervene people's subjective well-being. Finally, chapter 3 confirms that crowd-out of family support does occur in Korea and that increases in income, more so than other factors, have a positive impact on elders' life satisfaction found in chapter 2. These findings may generalize to other rapidly changing societies with a strong family elder-support tradition and emerging public elder-support system.
Item Open Access Punishing Illegal Firearm Possession in Durham(2018-01-17) Gavcovich, AmandaGun violence is a high-priority crime problem in Durham and other cities across the nation. In the first half of 2017, over 20,000 Americans died from gun violence. In Durham, as of 2016, gun homicides and injuries are at a 36-year high. Criminal misuse of guns by felons, youths, and others is an important precursor of gun violence. This thesis examines law enforcement response to illegal gun use, with a particular focus on how the courts process arrests for illegal possession, carrying, and transfer of a gun. The data set, all the non-violent, illegal firearm possession cases between June 2015 and June 2016, was specially requested from the Durham District Attorney’s Office to be examined for this thesis. To analyze subsequent arrest rates of the defendants, I gathered the data from the public access terminal at the Durham courthouse. In addition, the data results are better understood through interviews with Durham assistant district attorneys as well as the Durham public defenders. The illegal possession of a gun is essentially a victimless crime and lacks courthouse media coverage, like violent crimes tend to have. However, research suggests that illegal firearm possession is a precursor to violent crime and an inherently risky behavior. Efforts that have historically reduced risky behaviors have played an important role in addressing violent crime. For instance, Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) created political strategy to target DUIs to address high rates of drunk driving accidents. DUI cases are a risky behavior that is a precursor to fatal crashes. In much the same way, reducing illegal firearms could be a useful step toward reducing violent gun crimes. Debate and opposition exist on the efficiency of enforcing a full punishment – like jail time – on a crime committed disproportionately by young black men, unlike DUIs. Minimum mandatories or firearm enhancements– policies that North Carolina does not currently have in place – face pushback from policymakers and some federal judges for being disproportionate to the particular charge and for its damaging effects on black youth. Still, young black men experience gun homicides at a much higher rate than young white men, and this fact warrants more immediate attention. The research indicated that the Durham District Attorney’s Office takes cases most seriously when a misdemeanor or felony probation violation is involved. Felony gun possession cases, without a probation violation, most often result in dismissal. These cases have a conviction rate at less than half, and active sentencing resulting in just 15% of cases. Most cases are charged with multiple offenses, but the gun charge is likely the offense convicted. The Durham District Attorney’s Office is using the gun charge to drive a conviction, even if it is not the lead charge. In addition, the DDA is recognizing more active offenders constituting illegal gun possession cases, as 58% of defendants who were sentenced to jail were rearrested on other gun related charges while 36% of defendants, overall, were rearrested. The police appear to be identifying and arresting a certain suspect, as well – between 18 and 24 years of age, black, and a prior criminal record matching gang diversion risk markers.Item Open Access Reducing Unintentional Prescription Drug Overdose Deaths in North Carolina: Policy Implications based on Current Public Health Surveillance Systems and Law Enforcement Records(2013-04-18) Tiry, EmilyExecutive Summary Background In North Carolina, the number of deaths from unintentional drug overdoses has increased more than 300 percent in just over a decade, from 279 in 1999 to 1,140 in 2011. An increasing proportion of these deaths come from prescription drugs as opposed to illicit drugs. In particular, prescription opioids are involved in a majority of unintentional drug overdose deaths. Prescription drug overdose deaths are preventable, yet the death toll continues to increase. This dramatic increase is a relatively new phenomenon and the regulatory structure around prescription drugs differs in important ways from the one around illicit drugs. With that in mind, the goal of this paper is to examine and evaluate the current public health surveillance systems and law enforcement records with regard to unintentional prescription drug overdoses in North Carolina. In particular, it looks at the extent to which these systems record information about the source of the drugs involved in the overdose. Before we can design effective interventions to reduce unintentional overdoses, we need to know how victims obtain the drugs that contribute to their deaths, as well as whether and where that information exists. Policy Options There are many paths through which those at risk of a fatal prescription drug overdose may obtain the drugs that contribute to their deaths, including through legitimate prescriptions; doctor shopping; non-legitimate prescriptions (“pill mills”); receiving, purchasing, or stealing from family or friends; and purchasing on the street. Each path requires a different type of intervention; therefore, determining the relative importance of each path will guide recommendations for improving existing policies or implementing new ones. Several programs have already been implemented in North Carolina, each primarily addressing one source. These include Project Lazarus (legitimate prescriptions), the North Carolina Controlled Substances Reporting System (CSRS) (doctor shopping), the State Bureau of Investigation’s Diversion and Environmental Crimes Unit (non-legitimate prescriptions and purchasing on the street), and Operation Medicine Cabinet (receiving or stealing from family or friends). Data and Methods Using a data set compiled by the North Carolina Division of Public Health’s Injury and Violence Prevention Branch, I analyzed the characteristics of the unintentional pharmaceutical-related overdose deaths in North Carolina from 2010. This data set included information from death certificates, medical examiner files, and controlled substance prescription records. The analysis included categorizing cases according to the number and currency of controlled substance prescriptions as well as according to the types of drugs contributing to death. I also looked for evidence of diversion among the cases. This included identifying doctor shopping using three different criteria as well as identifying other types of diversion from information available in the medical examiner narratives. Finally, I evaluated how providers, pharmacists, and the State Bureau of Investigation are using the North Carolina Controlled Substance Reporting System. Results Of the 707 cases that were analyzed, unintentional prescription overdose victims were more likely to be male, white, and/or between the ages of 35 and 54. Over half of the cases (57 percent) had at least one current prescription for a controlled substance at the time of death. Additionally, of those who did have at least one current prescription, 72 percent had a current prescription for a drug that also contributed to their deaths. Opioids were by far the most common type of drug to contribute to death. Overall, opioids contributed to 94 percent of deaths, followed by benzodiazepines at 28 percent. In fact, all of the top ten specific drugs (e.g., oxycodone, alprazolam) to contribute to death were either an opioid or a benzodiazepine. Opioids and benzodiazepines were also more likely to contribute to death for those cases who had at least one current prescription for a contributory drug than for those who did not. The three doctor shopping criteria produced widely varying estimates, from a low of 16 cases using medical examiner narratives to a high of 252 cases using a criterion of filling prescriptions from at least five different prescribers in one year. The medical examiner narratives contained information about diversion sources for 78 cases, the most common source mentioned being receiving or stealing from family or friends. Fewer than half of the cases were looked up in the CSRS by anyone in the year before their deaths, which may have contributed to excessive prescriptions. Conclusions and Policy Implications Although North Carolina currently has a system in place that is intended to ensure that controlled substances are prescribed and used safely, unintentional overdoses from these drugs continue to increase. Though they are not definitive, these results provide at least preliminary evidence about where the system is failing, which can in turn guide potential policy changes. The following recommendations are based on my evaluation of the current public health surveillance system and law enforcement records: • Promote and evaluate increased use of the CSRS among prescribers and pharmacists when prescribing or dispensing an opioid or benzodiazepine. • Develop criteria to identify unusual or suspicious patterns of prescribing by providers. • Develop police investigation guidelines for collecting consistent information related to intent and to the source of the contributing drug(s). • Create a comprehensive surveillance system to monitor and analyze prescription drug overdose trends over time. However, any policy to reduce overdose deaths should minimize a “chilling effect,” which would unnecessarily restrict access to these drugs for those who have a legitimate need for them. Additionally, a comprehensive strategy to reduce overdose deaths should also attempt to reduce spillover from prescription drug overdoses to heroin overdoses, as well as address the demand side of prescription drug abuse.Item Open Access ShotSpotter in Durham, NC: Service or Burden? A Community Sentiment Evaluation(2023-12) Kelly, PilarShotSpotter is a gunshot detection technology that uses audio sensors to locate and notify local police departments of gunfire. In 2023, the Durham Police Department (DPD) conducted a year-long pilot of ShotSpotter. Conversations with 30 residents of ShotSpotter’s three-square mile pilot area revealed nuanced opinions on the role of police officers, both generally and within their role as responders to ShotSpotter alerts. In the context of ShotSpotter specifically, conversations surrounded the ethics of technology and corporate actors in policing, as well as the lack of community engagement in the decision to pilot. Less frequently did these conversations reveal any observed impact on gun crime or police activity after ShotSpotter was implemented. Not one participant believed that ShotSpotter could help reduce gun crime. However, the participants who did report seeing changes in policing since ShotSpotter described those changes in a positive light. Opposition to ShotSpotter was rooted primarily in preconceived mistrust rather than direct experiences. This mistrust was directed toward City Council, ShotSpotter as a corporation, policing as an institution, and concerns about surveillance and storing personal sensitive information. City Council should consider the experiences and perceptions of the citizens most affected by gun violence when deciding how to proceed with ShotSpotter. Meaningful engagement and representation of these community voices is critical in efforts to promote institutional trust, community-police relations, and reductions in violent crime.