Browsing by Author "Damien, P"

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    Bayesian Model Averaging in the M-Open Framework
    (Bayesian Theory and Applications, 2013) Clydec, Merlise; Iversen, Edwin S
    This chapter presents a model averaging approach in the M-open setting using sample re-use methods to approximate the predictive distribution of future observations. It first reviews the standard M-closed Bayesian Model Averaging approach and decision-theoretic methods for producing inferences and decisions. It then reviews model selection from the M-complete and M-open perspectives, before formulating a Bayesian solution to model averaging in the M-open perspective. It constructs optimal weights for MOMA:M-open Model Averaging using a decision-theoretic framework, where models are treated as part of the ‘action space’ rather than unknown states of nature. Using ‘incompatible’ retrospective and prospective models for data from a case-control study, the chapter demonstrates that MOMA gives better predictive accuracy than the proxy models. It concludes with open questions and future directions.
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    Modeling and forecasting of Brazilian reservoir inflows via dynamic linear models
    (International Journal of Forecasting, 2014-07) Lima, LMM; Popova, E; Damien, P