Browsing by Author "Hassmiller Lich, Kristen"

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    Linked Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration, and Uncertainty Analysis Using a System Dynamics Model for Stroke Comparative Effectiveness Research.
    (Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2016-11) Tian, Yuan; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Osgood, Nathaniel D; Eom, Kirsten; Matchar, David B

    Background

    As health services researchers and decision makers tackle more difficult problems using simulation models, the number of parameters and the corresponding degree of uncertainty have increased. This often results in reduced confidence in such complex models to guide decision making.

    Objective

    To demonstrate a systematic approach of linked sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty analysis to improve confidence in complex models.

    Methods

    Four techniques were integrated and applied to a System Dynamics stroke model of US veterans, which was developed to inform systemwide intervention and research planning: Morris method (sensitivity analysis), multistart Powell hill-climbing algorithm and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (calibration), and Monte Carlo simulation (uncertainty analysis).

    Results

    Of 60 uncertain parameters, sensitivity analysis identified 29 needing calibration, 7 that did not need calibration but significantly influenced key stroke outcomes, and 24 not influential to calibration or stroke outcomes that were fixed at their best guess values. One thousand alternative well-calibrated baselines were obtained to reflect calibration uncertainty and brought into uncertainty analysis. The initial stroke incidence rate among veterans was identified as the most influential uncertain parameter, for which further data should be collected. That said, accounting for current uncertainty, the analysis of 15 distinct prevention and treatment interventions provided a robust conclusion that hypertension control for all veterans would yield the largest gain in quality-adjusted life years.

    Conclusions

    For complex health care models, a mixed approach was applied to examine the uncertainty surrounding key stroke outcomes and the robustness of conclusions. We demonstrate that this rigorous approach can be practical and advocate for such analysis to promote understanding of the limits of certainty in applying models to current decisions and to guide future data collection.
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    Stakeholder Perspectives on Creating and Maintaining Trust in Community-Academic Research Partnerships.
    (Health education & behavior : the official publication of the Society for Public Health Education, 2017-02) Frerichs, Leah; Kim, Mimi; Dave, Gaurav; Cheney, Ann; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Jones, Jennifer; Young, Tiffany L; Cene, Crystal W; Varma, Deepthi S; Schaal, Jennifer; Black, Adina; Striley, Catherine W; Vassar, Stefanie; Sullivan, Greer; Cottler, Linda B; Brown, Arleen; Burke, Jessica G; Corbie-Smith, Giselle
    Community-academic research partnerships aim to build stakeholder trust in order to improve the reach and translation of health research, but there is limited empirical research regarding effective ways to build trust. This multisite study was launched to identify similarities and differences among stakeholders' perspectives of antecedents to trust in research partnerships. In 2013-2014, we conducted a mixed-methods concept mapping study with participants from three major stakeholder groups who identified and rated the importance of different antecedents of trust on a 5-point Likert-type scale. Study participants were community members ( n = 66), health care providers ( n = 38), and academic researchers ( n = 44). All stakeholder groups rated "authentic communication" and "reciprocal relationships" the highest in importance. Community members rated "communication/methodology to resolve problems" ( M = 4.23, SD = 0.58) significantly higher than academic researchers ( M = 3.87, SD = 0.67) and health care providers ( M = 3.89, SD = 0.62; p < .01) and had different perspectives regarding the importance of issues related to "sustainability." The importance of communication and relationships across stakeholders indicates the importance of colearning processes that involve the exchange of knowledge and skills. The differences uncovered suggest specific areas where attention and skill building may be needed to improve trust within partnerships. More research on how partnerships can improve communication specific to problem solving and sustainability is merited.