Browsing by Author "Hay, Simon I"

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    ItemOpen Access
    Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018.
    (Nature medicine, 2021-10-12) Kinyoki, Damaris; Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron E; Bhattacharjee, Natalia V; Local Burden of Disease Anaemia Collaborators; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Hay, Simon I
    Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000-2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15-49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.
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    ItemOpen Access
    Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
    (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022-04) Cramer, Estee Y; Ray, Evan L; Lopez, Velma K; Bracher, Johannes; Brennen, Andrea; Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J; Gerding, Aaron; Gneiting, Tilmann; House, Katie H; Huang, Yuxin; Jayawardena, Dasuni; Kanji, Abdul H; Khandelwal, Ayush; Le, Khoa; Mühlemann, Anja; Niemi, Jarad; Shah, Apurv; Stark, Ariane; Wang, Yijin; Wattanachit, Nutcha; Zorn, Martha W; Gu, Youyang; Jain, Sansiddh; Bannur, Nayana; Deva, Ayush; Kulkarni, Mihir; Merugu, Srujana; Raval, Alpan; Shingi, Siddhant; Tiwari, Avtansh; White, Jerome; Abernethy, Neil F; Woody, Spencer; Dahan, Maytal; Fox, Spencer; Gaither, Kelly; Lachmann, Michael; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Scott, James G; Tec, Mauricio; Srivastava, Ajitesh; George, Glover E; Cegan, Jeffrey C; Dettwiller, Ian D; England, William P; Farthing, Matthew W; Hunter, Robert H; Lafferty, Brandon; Linkov, Igor; Mayo, Michael L; Parno, Matthew D; Rowland, Michael A; Trump, Benjamin D; Zhang-James, Yanli; Chen, Samuel; Faraone, Stephen V; Hess, Jonathan; Morley, Christopher P; Salekin, Asif; Wang, Dongliang; Corsetti, Sabrina M; Baer, Thomas M; Eisenberg, Marisa C; Falb, Karl; Huang, Yitao; Martin, Emily T; McCauley, Ella; Myers, Robert L; Schwarz, Tom; Sheldon, Daniel; Gibson, Graham Casey; Yu, Rose; Gao, Liyao; Ma, Yian; Wu, Dongxia; Yan, Xifeng; Jin, Xiaoyong; Wang, Yu-Xiang; Chen, YangQuan; Guo, Lihong; Zhao, Yanting; Gu, Quanquan; Chen, Jinghui; Wang, Lingxiao; Xu, Pan; Zhang, Weitong; Zou, Difan; Biegel, Hannah; Lega, Joceline; McConnell, Steve; Nagraj, VP; Guertin, Stephanie L; Hulme-Lowe, Christopher; Turner, Stephen D; Shi, Yunfeng; Ban, Xuegang; Walraven, Robert; Hong, Qi-Jun; Kong, Stanley; van de Walle, Axel; Turtle, James A; Ben-Nun, Michal; Riley, Steven; Riley, Pete; Koyluoglu, Ugur; DesRoches, David; Forli, Pedro; Hamory, Bruce; Kyriakides, Christina; Leis, Helen; Milliken, John; Moloney, Michael; Morgan, James; Nirgudkar, Ninad; Ozcan, Gokce; Piwonka, Noah; Ravi, Matt; Schrader, Chris; Shakhnovich, Elizabeth; Siegel, Daniel; Spatz, Ryan; Stiefeling, Chris; Wilkinson, Barrie; Wong, Alexander; Cavany, Sean; España, Guido; Moore, Sean; Oidtman, Rachel; Perkins, Alex; Kraus, David; Kraus, Andrea; Gao, Zhifeng; Bian, Jiang; Cao, Wei; Lavista Ferres, Juan; Li, Chaozhuo; Liu, Tie-Yan; Xie, Xing; Zhang, Shun; Zheng, Shun; Vespignani, Alessandro; Chinazzi, Matteo; Davis, Jessica T; Mu, Kunpeng; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Xiong, Xinyue; Zheng, Andrew; Baek, Jackie; Farias, Vivek; Georgescu, Andreea; Levi, Retsef; Sinha, Deeksha; Wilde, Joshua; Perakis, Georgia; Bennouna, Mohammed Amine; Nze-Ndong, David; Singhvi, Divya; Spantidakis, Ioannis; Thayaparan, Leann; Tsiourvas, Asterios; Sarker, Arnab; Jadbabaie, Ali; Shah, Devavrat; Della Penna, Nicolas; Celi, Leo A; Sundar, Saketh; Wolfinger, Russ; Osthus, Dave; Castro, Lauren; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Michaud, Isaac; Karlen, Dean; Kinsey, Matt; Mullany, Luke C; Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin; Shin, Lauren; Tallaksen, Katharine; Wilson, Shelby; Lee, Elizabeth C; Dent, Juan; Grantz, Kyra H; Hill, Alison L; Kaminsky, Joshua; Kaminsky, Kathryn; Keegan, Lindsay T; Lauer, Stephen A; Lemaitre, Joseph C; Lessler, Justin; Meredith, Hannah R; Perez-Saez, Javier; Shah, Sam; Smith, Claire P; Truelove, Shaun A; Wills, Josh; Marshall, Maximilian; Gardner, Lauren; Nixon, Kristen; Burant, John C; Wang, Lily; Gao, Lei; Gu, Zhiling; Kim, Myungjin; Li, Xinyi; Wang, Guannan; Wang, Yueying; Yu, Shan; Reiner, Robert C; Barber, Ryan; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hay, Simon I; Lim, Steve; Murray, Chris; Pigott, David; Gurung, Heidi L; Baccam, Prasith; Stage, Steven A; Suchoski, Bradley T; Prakash, B Aditya; Adhikari, Bijaya; Cui, Jiaming; Rodríguez, Alexander; Tabassum, Anika; Xie, Jiajia; Keskinocak, Pinar; Asplund, John; Baxter, Arden; Oruc, Buse Eylul; Serban, Nicoleta; Arik, Sercan O; Dusenberry, Mike; Epshteyn, Arkady; Kanal, Elli; Le, Long T; Li, Chun-Liang; Pfister, Tomas; Sava, Dario; Sinha, Rajarishi; Tsai, Thomas; Yoder, Nate; Yoon, Jinsung; Zhang, Leyou; Abbott, Sam; Bosse, Nikos I; Funk, Sebastian; Hellewell, Joel; Meakin, Sophie R; Sherratt, Katharine; Zhou, Mingyuan; Kalantari, Rahi; Yamana, Teresa K; Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey; Li, Michael L; Bertsimas, Dimitris; Skali Lami, Omar; Soni, Saksham; Tazi Bouardi, Hamza; Ayer, Turgay; Adee, Madeline; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Dalgic, Ozden O; Ladd, Mary A; Linas, Benjamin P; Mueller, Peter; Xiao, Jade; Wang, Yuanjia; Wang, Qinxia; Xie, Shanghong; Zeng, Donglin; Green, Alden; Bien, Jacob; Brooks, Logan; Hu, Addison J; Jahja, Maria; McDonald, Daniel; Narasimhan, Balasubramanian; Politsch, Collin; Rajanala, Samyak; Rumack, Aaron; Simon, Noah; Tibshirani, Ryan J; Tibshirani, Rob; Ventura, Valerie; Wasserman, Larry; O'Dea, Eamon B; Drake, John M; Pagano, Robert; Tran, Quoc T; Ho, Lam Si Tung; Huynh, Huong; Walker, Jo W; Slayton, Rachel B; Johansson, Michael A; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Reich, Nicholas G
    Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.
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    ItemOpen Access
    Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.
    (Nature, 2019-10-16) Burstein, Roy; Henry, Nathaniel J; Collison, Michael L; Marczak, Laurie B; Sligar, Amber; Watson, Stefanie; Marquez, Neal; Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Mahdieh; Abbasi, Masoumeh; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdoli, Amir; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi; Abrigo, Michael RM; Acharya, Dilaram; Adebayo, Oladimeji M; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adham, Davoud; Afshari, Mahdi; Aghaali, Mohammad; Ahmadi, Keivan; Ahmadi, Mehdi; Ahmadpour, Ehsan; Ahmed, Rushdia; Akal, Chalachew Genet; Akinyemi, Joshua O; Alahdab, Fares; Alam, Noore; Alamene, Genet Melak; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Alijanzadeh, Mehran; Alinia, Cyrus; Alipour, Vahid; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed; Almalki, Mohammed J; Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M; Altirkawi, Khalid; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Amini, Saeed; Amit, Arianna Maever Loreche; Anbari, Zohreh; Androudi, Sofia; Anjomshoa, Mina; Ansari, Fereshteh; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Arabloo, Jalal; Arefi, Zohreh; Aremu, Olatunde; Armoon, Bahram; Arora, Amit; Artaman, Al; Asadi, Anvar; Asadi-Aliabadi, Mehran; Ashraf-Ganjouei, Amir; Assadi, Reza; Ataeinia, Bahar; Atre, Sachin R; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Ayanore, Martin Amogre; Azari, Samad; Babaee, Ebrahim; Babazadeh, Arefeh; Badawi, Alaa; Bagheri, Soghra; Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba; Baheiraei, Nafiseh; Balouchi, Abbas; Barac, Aleksandra; Bassat, Quique; Baune, Bernhard T; Bayati, Mohsen; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Behzadifar, Masoud; Behzadifar, Meysam; Belay, Yared Belete; Bell, Brent; Bell, Michelle L; Berbada, Dessalegn Ajema; Bernstein, Robert S; Bhattacharjee, Natalia V; Bhattarai, Suraj; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bijani, Ali; Bohlouli, Somayeh; Breitborde, Nicholas JK; Britton, Gabrielle; Browne, Annie J; Nagaraja, Sharath Burugina; Busse, Reinhard; Butt, Zahid A; Car, Josip; Cárdenas, Rosario; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Cerin, Ester; Chanie, Wagaye Fentahun; Chatterjee, Pranab; Chu, Dinh-Toi; Cooper, Cyrus; Costa, Vera M; Dalal, Koustuv; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Daoud, Farah; Daryani, Ahmad; Das Gupta, Rajat; Davis, Ian; Davis Weaver, Nicole; Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil; De Neve, Jan-Walter; Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen; Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam; Deribe, Kebede; Desai, Rupak; Deshpande, Aniruddha; Desyibelew, Hanna Demelash; Dey, Sagnik; Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda; Dhimal, Meghnath; Diaz, Daniel; Doshmangir, Leila; Duraes, Andre R; Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura; Earl, Lucas; Ebrahimi, Roya; Ebrahimpour, Soheil; Effiong, Andem; Eftekhari, Aziz; Ehsani-Chimeh, Elham; El Sayed, Iman; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa; El Tantawi, Maha; El-Khatib, Ziad; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Enany, Shymaa; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Eyawo, Oghenowede; Ezalarab, Maha; Faramarzi, Mahbobeh; Fareed, Mohammad; Faridnia, Roghiyeh; Faro, Andre; Fazaeli, Ali Akbar; Fazlzadeh, Mehdi; Fentahun, Netsanet; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, João C; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Foigt, Nataliya A; Foroutan, Masoud; Francis, Joel Msafiri; Fukumoto, Takeshi; Fullman, Nancy; Gallus, Silvano; Gebre, Destallem Gebremedhin; Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde; Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn; Gessner, Bradford D; Geta, Birhanu; Gething, Peter W; Ghadimi, Reza; Ghadiri, Keyghobad; Ghajarzadeh, Mahsa; Ghashghaee, Ahmad; Gill, Paramjit Singh; Gill, Tiffany K; Golding, Nick; Gomes, Nelson GM; Gona, Philimon N; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gorini, Giuseppe; Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia; Graetz, Nicholas; Greaves, Felix; Green, Manfred S; Guo, Yuming; Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin; Haj-Mirzaian, Arya; Hall, Brian James; Hamidi, Samer; Haririan, Hamidreza; Haro, Josep Maria; Hasankhani, Milad; Hasanpoor, Edris; Hasanzadeh, Amir; Hassankhani, Hadi; Hassen, Hamid Yimam; Hegazy, Mohamed I; Hendrie, Delia; Heydarpour, Fatemeh; Hird, Thomas R; Hoang, Chi Linh; Hollerich, Gillian; Rad, Enayatollah Homaie; Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Mojtaba; Hossain, Naznin; Hosseini, Mostafa; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Hostiuc, Mihaela; Hostiuc, Sorin; Househ, Mowafa; Hsairi, Mohamed; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Imani-Nasab, Mohammad Hasan; Iqbal, Usman; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Islam, Nazrul; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Jürisson, Mikk; Balalami, Nader Jafari; Jalali, Amir; Javidnia, Javad; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jenabi, Ensiyeh; Ji, John S; Jobanputra, Yash B; Johnson, Kimberly; Jonas, Jost B; Shushtari, Zahra Jorjoran; Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy; Kabir, Ali; Kahsay, Amaha; Kalani, Hamed; Kalhor, Rohollah; Karami, Manoochehr; Karki, Surendra; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kemp, Grant Rodgers; Khabiri, Roghayeh; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Junaid; Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatab, Khaled; Khater, Amir; Khater, Mona M; Khatony, Alireza; Khazaei, Mohammad; Khazaei, Salman; Khazaei-Pool, Maryam; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Kianipour, Neda; Kim, Yun Jin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinyoki, Damaris K; Kisa, Adnan; Kisa, Sezer; Kolola, Tufa; Kosen, Soewarta; Koul, Parvaiz A; Koyanagi, Ai; Kraemer, Moritz UG; Krishan, Kewal; Krohn, Kris J; Kugbey, Nuworza; Kumar, G Anil; Kumar, Manasi; Kumar, Pushpendra; Kuupiel, Desmond; Lacey, Ben; Lad, Sheetal D; Lami, Faris Hasan; Larsson, Anders O; Lee, Paul H; Leili, Mostafa; Levine, Aubrey J; Li, Shanshan; Lim, Lee-Ling; Listl, Stefan; Longbottom, Joshua; Lopez, Jaifred Christian F; Lorkowski, Stefan; Magdeldin, Sameh; Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy; Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy; Majeed, Azeem; Maleki, Afshin; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mamun, Abdullah A; Manafi, Navid; Manda, Ana-Laura; Mansourian, Morteza; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Masaka, Anthony; Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard; Maulik, Pallab K; Mayala, Benjamin K; Mazidi, Mohsen; McKee, Martin; Mehrotra, Ravi; Mehta, Kala M; Meles, Gebrekiros Gebremichael; Mendoza, Walter; Menezes, Ritesh G; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mestrovic, Tomislav; Miller, Ted R; Miller-Petrie, Molly K; Mills, Edward J; Milne, George J; Mini, GK; Mir, Seyed Mostafa; Mirjalali, Hamed; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M; Mohamadi, Efat; Mohammad, Dara K; Mohammad, Dara K; Darwesh, Aso Mohammad; Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi; Mohammed, Ammas Siraj; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mokdad, Ali H; Molokhia, Mariam; Monasta, Lorenzo; Moodley, Yoshan; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Moradi, Ghobad; Moradi, Masoud; Moradi, Yousef; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moradinazar, Mehdi; Moraga, Paula; Morawska, Lidia; Mosapour, Abbas; Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam; Mueller, Ulrich Otto; Muluneh, Atalay Goshu; Mustafa, Ghulam; Nabavizadeh, Behnam; Naderi, Mehdi; Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman; Nahvijou, Azin; Najafi, Farid; Nangia, Vinay; Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith; Neamati, Nahid; Negoi, Ionut; Negoi, Ruxandra Irina; Ngunjiri, Josephine W; Thi Nguyen, Huong Lan; Nguyen, Long Hoang; Nguyen, Son Hoang; Nielsen, Katie R; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nirayo, Yirga Legesse; Nixon, Molly R; Nnaji, Chukwudi A; Nojomi, Marzieh; Noroozi, Mehdi; Nosratnejad, Shirin; Noubiap, Jean Jacques; Motlagh, Soraya Nouraei; Ofori-Asenso, Richard; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oladimeji, Kelechi E; Olagunju, Andrew T; Olfatifar, Meysam; Olum, Solomon; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Oluwasanu, Mojisola Morenike; Onwujekwe, Obinna E; Oren, Eyal; Ortega-Altamirano, Doris DV; Ortiz, Alberto; Osarenotor, Osayomwanbo; Osei, Frank B; Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron E; Otstavnov, Stanislav S; Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo; P A, Mahesh; Pagheh, Abdol Sattar; Pakhale, Smita; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Pandey, Animika; Park, Eun-Kee; Parsian, Hadi; Pashaei, Tahereh; Patel, Sangram Kishor; Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino; Pereira, Alexandre; Perkins, Samantha; Pickering, Brandon V; Pilgrim, Thomas; Pirestani, Majid; Piroozi, Bakhtiar; Pirsaheb, Meghdad; Plana-Ripoll, Oleguer; Pourjafar, Hadi; Puri, Parul; Qorbani, Mostafa; Quintana, Hedley; Rabiee, Mohammad; Rabiee, Navid; Radfar, Amir; Rafiei, Alireza; Rahim, Fakher; Rahimi, Zohreh; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahimzadeh, Shadi; Rajati, Fatemeh; Raju, Sree Bhushan; Ramezankhani, Azra; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Rasella, Davide; Rashedi, Vahid; Rawal, Lal; Reiner, Robert C; Renzaho, Andre MN; Rezaei, Satar; Rezapour, Aziz; Riahi, Seyed Mohammad; Ribeiro, Ana Isabel; Roever, Leonardo; Roro, Elias Merdassa; Roser, Max; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Roshani, Daem; Rostami, Ali; Rubagotti, Enrico; Rubino, Salvatore; Sabour, Siamak; Sadat, Nafis; Sadeghi, Ehsan; Saeedi, Reza; Safari, Yahya; Safari-Faramani, Roya; Safdarian, Mahdi; Sahebkar, Amirhossein; Salahshoor, Mohammad Reza; Salam, Nasir; Salamati, Payman; Salehi, Farkhonde; Zahabi, Saleh Salehi; Salimi, Yahya; Salimzadeh, Hamideh; Salomon, Joshua A; Sambala, Evanson Zondani; Samy, Abdallah M; Santric Milicevic, Milena M; Jose, Bruno Piassi Sao; Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer; Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo; Sartorius, Benn; Sathian, Brijesh; Saxena, Sonia; Sbarra, Alyssa N; Schaeffer, Lauren E; Schwebel, David C; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba; Shaahmadi, Faramarz; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran; Shamshirian, Amir; Shamsizadeh, Morteza; Sharafi, Kiomars; Sharif, Mehdi; Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi; Sharifi, Hamid; Sharma, Jayendra; Sharma, Rajesh; Sheikh, Aziz; Shields, Chloe; Shigematsu, Mika; Shiri, Rahman; Shiue, Ivy; Shuval, Kerem; Siddiqi, Tariq J; Silva, João Pedro; Singh, Jasvinder A; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain; Sisay, Malede Mequanent; Sisay, Solomon; Sliwa, Karen; Smith, David L; Somayaji, Ranjani; Soofi, Moslem; Soriano, Joan B; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Sudaryanto, Agus; Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale; Sykes, Bryan L; Sylaja, PN; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tabb, Karen M; Tabuchi, Takahiro; Taveira, Nuno; Temsah, Mohamad-Hani; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Tessema, Zemenu Tadesse; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman; Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish; To, Quyen G; Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto; Tran, Bach Xuan; Tran, Khanh Bao; Ullah, Irfan; Usman, Muhammad Shariq; Uthman, Olalekan A; Vahedian-Azimi, Amir; Valdez, Pascual R; van Boven, Job FM; Vasankari, Tommi Juhani; Vasseghian, Yasser; Veisani, Yousef; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Violante, Francesco S; Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch; Vlassov, Vasily; Vos, Theo; Vu, Giang Thu; Vujcic, Isidora S; Waheed, Yasir; Wakefield, Jon; Wang, Haidong; Wang, Yafeng; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Ward, Joseph L; Weintraub, Robert G; Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey; Weldesamuel, Girmay Teklay; Westerman, Ronny; Wiysonge, Charles Shey; Wondafrash, Dawit Zewdu; Woyczynski, Lauren; Wu, Ai-Min; Xu, Gelin; Yadegar, Abbas; Yamada, Tomohide; Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid; Yilgwan, Christopher Sabo; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Lebni, Javad Yoosefi; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Yousof, Hebat-Allah Salah A; Yu, Chuanhua; Yusefzadeh, Hasan; Zabeh, Erfan; Moghadam, Telma Zahirian; Bin Zaman, Sojib; Zamani, Mohammad; Zandian, Hamed; Zangeneh, Alireza; Zerfu, Taddese Alemu; Zhang, Yunquan; Ziapour, Arash; Zodpey, Sanjay; Murray, Christopher JL; Hay, Simon I
    Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
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    ItemOpen Access
    Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2018.
    (Nature human behaviour, 2021-08) Bhattacharjee, Natalia V; Schaeffer, Lauren E; Hay, Simon I; Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding Collaborators
    Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life-is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030.