Browsing by Author "Kroeger, T"

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Open Access
Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers
(Environmental Research Letters, 2022-01-01) Parsons, LA; Masuda, YJ; Kroeger, T; Shindell, D; Wolff, NH; Spector, JT
Humid heat impacts a large portion of the world's population that works outdoors. Previous studies have quantified humid heat impacts on labor productivity by relying on exposure response functions that are based on uncontrolled experiments under a limited range of heat and humidity. Here we use the latest empirical model, based on a wider range of temperatures and humidity, for studying the impact of humid heat and recent climate change on labor productivity. We show that globally, humid heat may currently be associated with over 650 billion hours of annual lost labor (148 million full time equivalent jobs lost), 400 billion hours more than previous estimates. These differences in labor loss estimates are comparable to losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Globally, annual heat-induced labor productivity losses are estimated at 2.1 trillion in 2017 PPP$, and in several countries are equivalent to more than 10% of gross domestic product. Over the last four decades, global heat-related labor losses increased by at least 9% (>60 billion hours annually using the new empirical model) highlighting that relatively small changes in climate (<0.5 C) can have large impacts on global labor and the economy.
Open Access
Impacts of warming on outdoor worker well-being in the tropics and adaptation options
(One Earth, 2024-03-15) Masuda, YJ; Parsons, LA; Spector, JT; Battisti, DS; Castro, B; Erbaugh, JT; Game, ET; Garg, T; Kalmus, P; Kroeger, T; Mishra, V; Shindell, D; Tigchelaar, M; Wolff, NH; Vargas Zeppetello, LR
Over a billion outdoor workers live in the tropics, where nearly a fifth of all hours in the year are hot and humid enough to exceed recommended safety thresholds for workers conducting heavy labor. Reviews have focused on heat impacts on worker health, well-being, and productivity, but synthesis on how to increase resilience to heat for outdoor workers is lacking. Here we assess current and future heat exposure in the tropics and review four bodies of literature on heat impacts on workers. We also synthesize knowledge about mitigation and adaptation uncertainties as well as the actions that can be taken to strengthen worker resilience. We show that under an additional 1°C of warming, ∼800 million people in the tropics will live in areas where heavy work should be limited for over half of the hours in the year. Our review provides primary, secondary, and tertiary solutions that will inform policies and practices as well as research that is needed to bolster worker resilience and well-being.
Open Access
Tropical deforestation accelerates local warming and loss of safe outdoor working hours
(One Earth, 2021-12-17) Parsons, LA; Jung, J; Masuda, YJ; Vargas Zeppetello, LR; Wolff, NH; Kroeger, T; Battisti, DS; Spector, JT
Climate change has increased heat exposure in many parts of the tropics, negatively impacting outdoor worker productivity and health. Although it is known that tropical deforestation is associated with local warming, the extent to which this additional heat exposure affects people across the tropics is unknown. In this modeling study, we combine worker health guidelines with satellite, reanalysis, and population data to investigate how warming associated with recent deforestation (2003–2018) affects outdoor working conditions across low-latitude countries, and how future global climate change will magnify heat exposure for people in deforested areas. We find that the local warming from 15 years of deforestation was associated with losses in safe thermal working conditions for 2.8 million outdoor workers. We also show recent large-scale forest loss was associated with particularly large impacts on populations in locations such as the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso and Pará. Future global warming and additional forest loss will magnify these impacts.