Browsing by Author "Li, Wenhong"

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

The Southeastern United States (SE US) is one of the fastest developing regions of the nation, where summer precipitation becomes increasingly important to sustain population and economic growth. In recent decades, the variability of SE US summer precipitation has significantly intensified, leading to more frequent and severe climate extremes. However, the processes that have caused such enhanced climate variability have been poorly understood. By analyzing atmospheric hydrological cycle, diagnosing atmospheric circulation dynamics, and performing regional climate simulations, this dissertation investigates the mechanisms responsible for SE US summer precipitation variability.

Analysis of regional moisture budget indicates that the variability of SE US summer precipitation is primarily controlled by moisture transport processes associated with the variation of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western ridge, while local water recycling is secondary. As the ridge moves northwestward (NW) into the US continent, moisture transport pathway is away from the SE US and the upward motion is depressed. Thus, rainfall decreases over the SE US, leading to dry summers. In contrast, when the ridge moves southwestward (SW), moisture convergence tends to be enhanced over the SE US, facilitating heavier rainfall and causing wetter summers. However, as the ridge is located relatively eastward, its influence on the summer precipitation is weakened. The intensified precipitation variability in recent decades is attributed to the more frequent occurrence of NW- and SW-type ridges, according to the "NASH western ridge - SE US summer precipitation" relationship.

In addition, the "NASH western ridge - SE US summer precipitation" relationship acts as a primary mechanism to determine general circulation model (GCM) and regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Generally, the state-of-the-art GCMs that are capable of representing the abovementioned relationship perform better in simulating the variability of SE US summer precipitation. Similarly, the RCM simulated summer precipitation bias over the SE US is largely caused by the errors in the NASH western ridge circulation, with the physical parameterization playing a secondary role.

Furthermore, the relationship between the NASH western ridge and SE US summer precipitation well explains the projected future precipitation changes. According to the projection by the ensemble of phase-5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, summer precipitation over the SE US will become more variable in a warming climate. The enhancement of precipitation variability is due mainly to the atmospheric circulation dynamics, resulting from the pattern shift of the NASH western ridge circulation. In a warming climate, the NASH circulation tends to intensify, which forces its western ridge to extend further westward, exerting stronger impact on the SE US summertime climate. As the ridge extends westward, the NW- and SW-type ridges occur more frequently, resulting in an increased occurrence of extreme summers over the SE US.

In summary, the studies presented in this dissertation identify the NASH western ridge as a primary regulator of SE US summer precipitation at seasonal scale. The "NASH western ridge - SE US summer precipitation" relationship established in this study serves as a first order mechanism for understanding and simulating processes that influence the statistics of extreme events over the SE in the current and future climate.

Global mean surface air temperature (GMST) is one of the most well-known and robust measures of global climate change both contemporarily as well as through deep time. In contemporary climate science, the most often discussed causes of GMST change are referred to as external radiative forcings, which are considered to be exogenous to the land-atmosphere-ocean system and which impose a radiative energy imbalance (N) at the top of the earth’s atmosphere. Examples of external radiative forcings include changes in well-mixed greenhouse gas concentrations, changes in volcanic or anthropogenic aerosol loading, anthropogenic changes in land use, and changes in incoming solar radiation. The climate system can also produce unforced variability in GMST that spontaneously emerges from the internal dynamics of the land-atmosphere-ocean system. Unforced GMST variability can emerge via a vertical redistribution of heat within the climate system. For example, there can be a net transport of energy from below the ocean’s mixed layer to the surface during an El-Niño event. Additionally, unforced GMST variability can be due to an unforced change in N. For example, an internally generated change in the strength of an ocean circulation could alter the extent of sea ice and thus change the Earth’s albedo.

Understanding the magnitude and mechanisms underlying unforced GMST variability is relevant for both the attribution of past climate change to various causes, as well to the prediction of future changes on policy-relevant timescales. However, the literature on unforced GMST variability, particularly at interdecadal and longer timescales, is inconsistent and there is significant disagreement on its magnitude, on its primary geographic origins, and on the physical mechanisms that are most responsible.

This dissertation seeks to advance the scientific understanding of unforced GMST variability by addressing seven primary scientific goals: 1) To identify the geographic locations (and by proxy modes of variability) that are most responsible for unforced GMST variability in both the instrumental record and in climate models. 2) To identify the primary reasons why AOGCMs disagree on the magnitude of interdecadal unforced GMST variability. 3) To quantify the magnitude of unforced GMST variability in observations over the instrumental record as well as in multi-proxy reconstructions over the past millennium. 4) To quantify the degree to which unforced GMST variability is influenced by internally generated N energy imbalances. 5) To understand how anomalous N fluxes can influence large scale modes of surface temperature variability that affect GMST, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). 6) To understand the nature of the restoring force responsible for returning a perturbed GMST anomaly back to equilibrium; and 7) To understand how the magnitude and mechanisms of GMST variability might change in the future as the climate warms.

This research relies on the analysis of coupled Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) that participated in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), satellite observations of the Earth’s energy budget from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), instrumental surface temperature observations from NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-I) and surface temperature reconstructions over the past millennium from numerous multiproxy archives.

This work has yielded six primary conclusions: I) Dynamics over the tropical Pacific Ocean represent the primary contributor to unforced GMST variability at interdecadal and longer timescales with lesser contributions from dynamics in the subpolar north Atlantic and Southern Ocean. II) AOGCMs tend to underestimate the magnitude of unforced GMST variability at interdecadal and longer timescales relative to both instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature datasets. III) N imbalances can act to significantly enhance interdecadal GMST variability. IV) GMST is able to restore equilibrium after an internally generated perturbation via the transport of energy to high-latitude locations and via the rearrangement the atmospheric circulation; both of which allow for much more efficient release of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) than would otherwise be expected. V) N imbalances can significantly enhance internal modes of variability such as the AMO; and VI) The magnitude of interdecadal GMST variability is likely to decline and the generating mechanisms of such variability may be fundamentally altered as climate warms over the 21st century. These results advance our understanding of unforced GMST variability and they have implications for attribution studies and may inform projections of climate change on interdecadal timescales.

As a continuous drying trend is predicted in California, changes in precipitation and temperature may significantly impact various ecosystem processes, and subsequently, the gross primary production (GPP), a measure of the amount of carbon assimilated by plants from the atmosphere. This study investigates the sensitivity of GPP to variations in precipitation and temperature in a semi-arid grassland in California by analyzing AmeriFlux tower observation and using the process-based biogeochemical model, Biome-BGCMuSo. Analyses of the observation demonstrate that GPP is affected by both precipitation and temperatures, but precipitation plays a larger role than temperatures in controlling soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and incoming shortwave radiation in spring, and therefore, annual GPP; compared to summer, fall and winter seasons, spring GPP dominates annual GPP. Over the period 2002 – 2019, Biome-BGCMuSo-simulated GPP is in good agreement with eddy covariance tower-based GPP. Model results also reveal that precipitation and temperature primarily affect GPP by regulating leaves’ stomatal conductance through their influences on soil moisture and VPD. Precipitation reduction and temperature rise projected by CMIP5 North America Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) under the high representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario decreased annual GPP by 8% and 7%, respectively, when applied separately, and 16% when applied together. These results suggest a reduction of terrestrial primary production in the semi-arid ecosystems when the climate warms.