Browsing by Author "Nadarajan, Gayathri Devi"

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    A hypothetical implementation of 'Termination of Resuscitation' protocol for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.
    (Resuscitation plus, 2021-06) Nazeha, Nuraini; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Limkakeng, Alexander T; Ye, Jinny J; Joiner, Anjni Patel; Blewer, Audrey; Shahidah, Nur; Nadarajan, Gayathri Devi; Mao, Desmond Renhao; Graves, Nicholas

    Background

    Out-of-hospital cardiac arrests with negligible chance of survival are routinely transported to hospital and many are pronounced dead thereafter. This leads to some potentially avoidable costs. The 'Termination of Resuscitation' protocol allows paramedics to terminate resuscitation efforts onsite for medically futile cases. This study estimates the changes in frequency of costly events that might occur when the protocol is applied to out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, as compared to existing practice.

    Methods

    We used Singapore data from the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study, from 1 Jan 2014 to 31 Dec 2017. A Markov model was developed to summarise the events that would occur in two scenarios, existing practice and the implementation of a Termination of Resuscitation protocol. The model was evaluated for 10,000 hypothetical patients with a cycle duration of 30 days after having a cardiac arrest. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis accounted for uncertainties in the outcomes: number of urgent transports and emergency treatments, inpatient bed days, and total number of deaths.

    Results

    For every 10,000 patients, existing practice resulted in 1118 (95% Uncertainty Interval 1117 to 1119) additional urgent transports to hospital and subsequent emergency treatments. There were 93 (95% Uncertainty Interval 66 to 120) extra inpatient bed days used, and 3 fewer deaths (95% Uncertainty Interval 2 to 4) in comparison to using the protocol.

    Conclusion

    The findings provide some evidence for adopting the Termination of Resuscitation protocol. This policy could lead to a reduction in costs and non-beneficial hospital admissions, however there may be a small increase in the number of avoidable deaths.
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    Development and Assessment of an Interpretable Machine Learning Triage Tool for Estimating Mortality After Emergency Admissions.
    (JAMA network open, 2021-08-02) Xie, Feng; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock; Liew, Johannes Nathaniel Min Hui; Tan, Kenneth Boon Kiat; Ho, Andrew Fu Wah; Nadarajan, Gayathri Devi; Low, Lian Leng; Kwan, Yu Heng; Goldstein, Benjamin Alan; Matchar, David Bruce; Chakraborty, Bibhas; Liu, Nan

    Importance

    Triage in the emergency department (ED) is a complex clinical judgment based on the tacit understanding of the patient's likelihood of survival, availability of medical resources, and local practices. Although a scoring tool could be valuable in risk stratification, currently available scores have demonstrated limitations.

    Objectives

    To develop an interpretable machine learning tool based on a parsimonious list of variables available at ED triage; provide a simple, early, and accurate estimate of patients' risk of death; and evaluate the tool's predictive accuracy compared with several established clinical scores.

    Design, setting, and participants

    This single-site, retrospective cohort study assessed all ED patients between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2016, who were subsequently admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore. The Score for Emergency Risk Prediction (SERP) tool was derived using a machine learning framework. To estimate mortality outcomes after emergency admissions, SERP was compared with several triage systems, including Patient Acuity Category Scale, Modified Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score, Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage, Rapid Acute Physiology Score, and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score. The initial analyses were completed in October 2020, and additional analyses were conducted in May 2021.

    Main outcomes and measures

    Three SERP scores, namely SERP-2d, SERP-7d, and SERP-30d, were developed using the primary outcomes of interest of 2-, 7-, and 30-day mortality, respectively. Secondary outcomes included 3-day mortality and inpatient mortality. The SERP's predictive power was measured using the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic analysis.

    Results

    The study included 224 666 ED episodes in the model training cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.60 [16.90] years; 113 426 [50.5%] female), 56 167 episodes in the validation cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.58 [16.87] years; 28 427 [50.6%] female), and 42 676 episodes in the testing cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 64.85 [16.80] years; 21 556 [50.5%] female). The mortality rates in the training cohort were 0.8% at 2 days, 2.2% at 7 days, and 5.9% at 30 days. In the testing cohort, the areas under the curve of SERP-30d were 0.821 (95% CI, 0.796-0.847) for 2-day mortality, 0.826 (95% CI, 0.811-0.841) for 7-day mortality, and 0.823 (95% CI, 0.814-0.832) for 30-day mortality and outperformed several benchmark scores.

    Conclusions and relevance

    In this retrospective cohort study, SERP had better prediction performance than existing triage scores while maintaining easy implementation and ease of ascertainment in the ED. It has the potential to be widely applied and validated in different circumstances and health care settings.
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    Impact of COVID-19 on perceived wellbeing, self-management and views of novel modalities of care among medically vulnerable patients in Singapore.
    (Chronic illness, 2021-12-29) Yoon, Sungwon; Hoe, Pei Shan; Chan, Angelique; Malhotra, Rahul; Visaria, Abhijit; Matchar, David; Goh, Hendra; Seng, Bridget; Ramakrishnan, Chandrika; Koh, Mariko S; Yee, Tiew Pei; Nadarajan, Gayathri Devi; Bee, Yong Mong; Graves, Nicholas; Jafar, Tazeen H; Ong, Marcus Eh

    Objectives

    This study aims to examine the impact of COVID-19 measures on wellbeing and self-management in medically vulnerable non-COVID patients and their views of novel modalities of care in Singapore.

    Methods

    Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, chronic kidney disease, diabetes and cancer were recruited from the SingHealth cluster and national cohort of older adults. Data on demographics, chronic conditions and perceived wellbeing were collected using questionnaire. We performed multivariable regression to examine factors associated with perceived wellbeing. Qualitative interviews were conducted to elicit patient's experience and thematically analyzed.

    Results

    A total of 91 patients participated. Male patients compared with female patients perceived a lower impact of the pandemic on subjective wellbeing. Patients with CVD compared to those having conditions other than CVD perceived a lower impact. Impacts of the pandemic were primarily described in relation to emotional distress and interference in maintaining self-care. Hampering of physical activity featured prominently, but most did not seek alternative ways to maintain activity. Despite general willingness to try novel care modalities, lack of physical interaction and communication difficulties were perceived as main barriers.

    Discussion

    Findings underline the need to alleviate emotional distress and develop adaptive strategies to empower patients to maintain wellbeing and self-care.
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    Spillover Effects of COVID-19 on Essential Chronic Care and Ways to Foster Health System Resilience to Support Vulnerable Non-COVID Patients: A Multistakeholder Study.
    (Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, 2021-11-12) Yoon, Sungwon; Goh, Hendra; Chan, Angelique; Malhotra, Rahul; Visaria, Abhijit; Matchar, David; Lum, Elaine; Seng, Bridget; Ramakrishnan, Chandrika; Quah, Stella; Koh, Mariko S; Tiew, Pei Yee; Bee, Yong Mong; Abdullah, Hairil; Nadarajan, Gayathri Devi; Graves, Nicholas; Jafar, Tazeen; Ong, Marcus EH

    Objectives

    Little empirical research exists on how key stakeholders involved in the provision of care for chronic conditions and policy planning perceive the indirect or "spillover" effects of the COVID-19 on non-COVID patients. This study aims to explore stakeholder experiences and perspectives of the impact of COVID-19 on the provision of care for chronic conditions, evolving modalities of care, and stakeholder suggestions for improving health system resilience to prepare for future pandemics.

    Design

    Qualitative study design.

    Setting and participants

    This study was conducted during and after the COVID-19 lockdown period in Singapore. We recruited a purposive sample of 51 stakeholders involved in care of non-COVID patients and/or policy planning for chronic disease management. They included health care professionals (micro-level), hospital management officers (meso-level), and government officials (macro-level).

    Methods

    In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted. All interviews were digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim, and thematically analyzed.

    Results

    Optimal provision of care for chronic diseases may be compromised through the following processes: lack of "direct" communication between colleagues on clinical cases resulting in rescheduling of patient visits; uncertainty in diagnostic decisions due to protocol revision and lab closure; and limited preparedness to handle non-COVID patients' emotional reactions. Although various digital innovations enhanced access to care, a digital divide exists due to uneven digital literacy and perceived data security risks, thereby hampering wider implementation. To build health system resilience, stakeholders suggested the need to integrate digital care into the information technology ecosystem, develop strategic public-private partnerships for chronic disease management, and give equal attention to the provision of holistic psychosocial and community support for vulnerable non-COVID patients.

    Conclusions and implications

    Findings highlight that strategies to deliver quality chronic care for non-COVID patients in times of public health crisis should include innovative care practices and institutional reconfiguration within the broader health system context.