Browsing by Author "Newell, Richard G"
Now showing 1 - 20 of 24
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Open Access A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS FOR THE TRANSITION OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM PETROLEUM-BASED POWER GENERATION(2013-04-26) Truckor, KentSmall island economies are almost entirely dependent on petroleum-based products as the fuel stock for power generation. This dependency places a significant burden on economic growth with up to 30% of GDP attributable to importing oil along with accompanying environmental concerns. This paper focuses on the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) and considers different generation technologies that can help the USVI meet its goal of 60% reduction in petroleum usage for power generation by 2025. The paper assesses the cost effectiveness of different utility-scale generation technologies evaluated against the current baseline system in the context of cost and carbon emissions. The approach for the analysis assesses secondary research and publications on transitioning island economies from petroleum-based power generation. Research specific to the U.S. Virgin islands is utilized along with technology data to develop a cost effectiveness optimization model for serving the load demand in the U.S. Virgin islands under different scenarios. Two key scenarios are considered, one where energy efficiency measures are successful and electricity load is reduced 36% per NREL research conducted and the second where energy efficiency measures are not successful and load continues to grow at 1.2% annually through 2025. With these scenarios, different generation technologies are evaluated utilizing their respective levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to determine the most cost effective and carbon considerate technologies to serve the residual load of the USVI. Findings illustrate that natural gas-fed advanced combustion turbines provide the most cost effective means to meet the USVI demand load, regardless of the success of energy efficiency programs in reducing load. Energy efficiency deployment provides cost savings and value in reducing exposure to fuel price volatility by reducing the load served by oil/natural gas generators. Per these findings, further research is warranted for determining a secure and viable natural gas supply chain, advanced combustion turbine integration studies, cost/benefit analysis and roadmap evaluation of energy efficiency programs for the USVI.Item Open Access Abating Carbon Emissions in the Aviation Sector: Policy Analysis and Recommendations for the Federal Government(2012-04-26) Shenoy, VenaiThe top U.S. airlines by passenger volume move a little more than half a billion passengers annually, both domestically and internationally, burning millions of gallons of fuel and releasing millions of tons of the GHG carbon dioxide in the process. After building a case for action, this paper assumes that the United States Federal Government cannot sit idly by and is considering a carbon mitigation strategy for the aviation sector. Using publicly available data from MIT, the paper measured the carbon emission intensity of the major U.S. airlines to determine how efficiently airlines allocate carbon emissions, with the results providing insight into areas for emissions efficiency improvements. After determining that modernizing U.S. airline fleets is the most realistic opportunity to curb emissions, the paper developed a standard policy criterion to determine the best mix of regulatory policies to do so. It found that an emissions trading system, economic safeguards against foreign carriers and financial incentives for innovation can promote fleet modernization, decreasing carbon emissions across all airlines. Combining this modernization with new FAA air traffic management strategies, carbon emissions can be appreciably curbed despite projected growth.Item Open Access Arctic Offshore Energy Resources: Distribution Across International Boundaries and Climatic Impact(2013-04-26) Praprotnik, TinaThe USGS estimates “that about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil may be found [in the Arctic], mostly offshore.” While such large quantities of hydrocarbon resources hold out the promise of an Arctic energy future, this future is highly uncertain, implicating the interconnected issues of climate change, technological accessibility, sensitivity of the Arctic environment, and uncertainty of state jurisdiction over the resources under the international law of the sea. This study explores some of these questions by examining the distribution of Arctic hydrocarbon resources across national jurisdictions and by evaluating their greenhouse-gas potential. The study 1) reviews sources of the law of the sea relevant to jurisdiction over Arctic hydrocarbon resources, 2) intersects geological maps of undiscovered resources with an Arctic maritime boundary map to estimate the amount of resources across various zones of national jurisdiction, and 3) calculates the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that would be released from combustion of all undiscovered Arctic hydrocarbon resources.Item Open Access Carbon markets: effective policy?--Response.(Science, 2014-06-27) Newell, Richard G; Pizer, William A; Raimi, DanielItem Open Access Electric Vehicles: Cost and Emissions Analysis for CA Electric Grid(2012-04-26) Patadia, ShanaElectric vehicles have been suggested as one of the primary possible solutions to fuel dependency and emissions reduction, but hesitation has been expressed as to the actual emissions reductions that electric vehicles would bring as well as the cost impacts on the individual vehicle owner. This Masters Project analyzes the impacts of various scenarios of the integration of a passenger electric vehicle fleet into the California electric grid through Vehicle to Grid Services (V2G). The central focus of this analysis was to determine what percentage of vehicles can complete their standard driving behavior with an electric vehicle based on different assumptions of charging availability as well as battery and charging technology assumptions. To accommodate a range of possible future grid situations, three technology scenarios were conducted. Using these three grid scenarios the model was also able to show what the approximate cost would be per vehicle-week and vehicle-mile of using electric charging. The data showed that even the pessimistic technology baseline demonstrated superior costs and emissions as compared to conventional vehicles. All three scenarios reduced emissions by more than three-fold and the cost per mile was found to be an eighth of the conventional vehicle cost. The cost differences result from lower electricity “fueling” costs as compared to gasoline fueling costs, as well from the earnings the vehicles received from selling their electricity to the grid through V2G. At maximum, a total of 65 vehicles out of 841 vehicles “failed” meaning that the model could not find a way to allow them completion of their driving. This has significant implications as many concerns exist as to the feasibility of electric vehicles for the majority of drivers, but this data demonstrates that less than 8% of the employed population in CA has driving unfit for electric vehicles. The remainder of the population, 92%, could complete their driving under an aggregator controlled V2G scheme. These conclusions imply that a reasonable amount of investment into Level 2 chargers and Vehicle to Grid infrastructure, could result in savings or the consumer, increased frequency regulation for the grid, and significant emissions reductions.Item Open Access Energy efficiency economics and policy(Annual Review of Resource Economics, 2009) Gillingham, Kenneth; Newell, Richard G; Palmer, KarenItem Open Access Environmental and Technology Policy Options in the Electricity Sector: Interactions and Outcomes(2014-04-14) Fischer, Carolyn; Newell, Richard G; Preonas, LouisItem Open Access Environmental economics. Carbon market lessons and global policy outlook.(Science, 2014-03-21) Newell, Richard G; Pizer, William A; Raimi, DanielItem Open Access Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Domestic Policy Portfolios for Emissions Abatement in the Electricity Sector(2009-04-24T17:07:29Z) Wanner, BrentIncreased scientific certainty about anthropogenic climate change coupled with the Obama administration taking office has the United States poised to enact legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Studies have suggested that a combination of policy instruments will be more economically efficient than any single strategy in order to correct for multiple externalities in the market. This paper employs a theoretical model of the electricity sector developed in Fischer & Newell (2008) to compare the cost-effectiveness of individual and combinations of policy instruments. Despite many of the parameter values changing significantly in the numerical application of the model, this analysis affirms the relative rankings of the policy instruments in terms of economic efficiency found in Fischer & Newell (2008). Beginning with the most cost-effective instrument, the order is as follows: emissions price, tradable emissions performance standard, tax on fossil output, renewables portfolio standard, renewables production subsidy, and R&D subsidy. Several policy portfolios are modeled and costs compared to an emissions price. The results indicate that simultaneous policies for climate mitigation tend to be more cost-effective than any single instrument. While combining an emissions price with a renewables portfolio standard offers cost advantages over an emissions price alone, the best complementary policy for an emissions price is an R&D subsidy. The sensitivity analyses show that this is a robust conclusion for a broad range of parameter values. It is therefore recommended that policymakers seriously consider a substantial R&D subsidy for renewable energy technologies in addition to establishing a cap-and-trade system.Item Open Access Evaluating the Economics of Ethanol(2008-12-05T18:29:07Z) Bean, PatrickThe ethanol industry has experienced explosive growth in the past several years due to concerns about oil dependence and climate change. However, sentiment has begun to shift against corn ethanol due to increasing food costs, dwindling profit margins and increased government expenditures propping up the industry. Despite the record increase in gasoline prices, ethanol has struggled with its own rising costs of production and market turmoil. This Masters Project assesses the economics of corn-based ethanol production in the United States through the development of three models. The Ethanol Supply Curve Model constructs an ethanol supply curve based on user defined commodity prices. The model compares the marginal cost of ethanol production to the wholesale price of gasoline in order to determine the ability of ethanol to compete with gasoline in the transportation fuel market. The Ethanol Profit Model solves for a facility’s profit margin under user defined commodity conditions. The Ethanol Variable Subsidy Model calculates the price-contingent subsidy required for ethanol to compete with gasoline on a price basis. A reference case is developed using commodity prices from U.S. government forecasts for 2008. Additionally, several sensitivity analyses are completed to provide insight about the potential health of the ethanol industry under different conditions. The results from the reference case indicate the ethanol industry is facing a treacherous production environment. The reference case scenario finds profit margins of $-0.1116/gallon for dry-mill ethanol producers, and $0.0498/gallon for wet-mill producers. Ethanol producers face the risk of bankruptcy, consolidation and failure to meet government production mandates if the current conditions persist. In the reference case, ethanol producers require a 33% increase in the ethanol subsidy from $0.51/gallon to $0.6796/gallon in order to break-even with gasoline prices. The Ethanol Supply Curve Model also shows that the market currently values ethanol on a gasoline-energy equivalent basis rather than a volumetric basis. Model instructions and computer code are included in the report.Item Open Access Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Duke University Employee Commuters: The Cost-Effectiveness of Reductions(2008-12-05T21:41:34Z) Potes, AndresDuke University is seeking to decrease greenhouse gas emissions from its employee commuters. I build a linear optimization model to predict Duke University and Medical Center employee commute mode share. Combining these results with a forecast of Duke employee growth, I calculate the impact on employee commuter greenhouse gas emissions of 1) existing Duke carpooling and bus subsidies, 2) a $10 per month increase in employee parking costs and 3) a $20 per month increase in employee parking costs. The cost-effectiveness of these measures in 2015 to Duke University is $309.96 per mtCO2e for existing policy, -$248.87 per mtCO2e for a $10 per month increase in parking costs and -$516.21 per mtCO2e for a $20 per month increase in parking costs. Including costs to commuters, the cost-effectiveness of these policies to society as a whole is $57.41, $84.18, and $399.82 per mtCO2e. From the perspective of Duke University, excluding costs to employee commuters, the existing policy scenario is the least cost-effective strategy for achieving greenhouse gas emissions reductions from employee commuters. The parking cost increases are the least cost-effective when costs to employee commuters are included. From this combined perspective, the existing policy scenario is the most cost-effective policy.Item Open Access Implications of shale gas development for climate change.(Environ Sci Technol, 2014) Newell, Richard G; Raimi, DanielAdvances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.Item Open Access Informing SPR Policy Through Oil Futures and Inventory Dynamics(2017-11-02) Newell, Richard G; Prest, BrianItem Open Access Introduction and Summary(Accelerating Energy Innovation: Insights from Multiple Sectors, 2011-05-30) Henderson, Rebecca M.; Newell, RItem Open Access New England's Installed Electric Generation Forecast 2013-2025(2014-04-24) DeMarco, Elizabeth; Osteen, C. Alex; Song, Jiayin; Wang, YuanThe aim of this Master’s Project, as identified by our client the C Three Group, LLC, was to forecast installed electric capacity in the ISO New England region through the year 2025 under different scenarios including varying natural gas prices and RPS programs. ISO New England is the Independent System Operator of New England and oversees electric generation and transmission in the New England States. Our team built a basic supply model and, using linear optimization, we estimated ways for the ISO New England region to expand its supply to meet the growth in forecast demand. We ran our model under different scenarios, including varying natural gas prices and RPS programs. We took into account announced changes to capacity as well as possible scenarios that may affect further changes in the makeup of capacity. The final results showed continued expansion of natural gas and wind generation, the low-cost leaders, as well as new development of demand response. As we varied the future prices of natural gas, more electricity began to be imported from Canada. We believe that future carbon prices and stricter RPS standards may further ratchet up imports and renewables, in place of natural gas. Finally, our model predicts possible future coal retirements and is doubtful of new nuclear. Our client will potentially use the explanation of our models and written report of our findings in future research and consulting for their business.Item Open Access Opening Duke University’s Energy Data(2013-04-26) Ordal, PeterDuke University stores and maintains a variety of data regarding energy and water consumption on its campuses. These data have traditionally been known to and accessible only by Duke's Facilities Management Department (FMD), and a limited set of other personnel. As interest in sustainability increases at the University, students and faculty undertaking energy and water analyses, efficiency, and conservation projects will need access to these data. Similarly, the Facilities Management Department, which is actively working to help Duke achieve its carbon neutrality goal of 2024, stands to benefit from collaboration with students and faculty to analyze data and find opportunities for conservation. This master's project sought to build stronger relationships between the academic and Facilities communities. The project included writing several online resources to improve FMD's communications with the rest of the University regarding energy use and energy data. Among those resources is a short form students and faculty can use to request energy data access, which is backed by a simple new approval process proposed to FMD. An energy data visualization was created to demonstrate an original use for energy data. The project also identified and assisted the growth of several discrete collaborations between FMD and Duke’s academics, as a means to induce broader academic research on the University's utility data.Item Open Access Physical and economic potential of geological CO2 storage in saline aquifers.(Environ Sci Technol, 2009-03-15) Eccles, Jordan K; Pratson, Lincoln; Newell, Richard G; Jackson, Robert BCarbon sequestration in sandstone saline reservoirs holds great potential for mitigating climate change, but its storage potential and cost per ton of avoided CO2 emissions are uncertain. We develop a general model to determine the maximum theoretical constraints on both storage potential and injection rate and use it to characterize the economic viability of geosequestration in sandstone saline aquifers. When applied to a representative set of aquifer characteristics, the model yields results that compare favorably with pilot projects currently underway. Over a range of reservoir properties, maximum effective storage peaks at an optimal depth of 1600 m, at which point 0.18-0.31 metric tons can be stored per cubic meter of bulk volume of reservoir. Maximum modeled injection rates predict minima for storage costs in a typical basin in the range of $2-7/ ton CO2 (2005 U.S.$) depending on depth and basin characteristics in our base-case scenario. Because the properties of natural reservoirs in the United States vary substantially, storage costs could in some cases be lower or higher by orders of magnitude. We conclude that available geosequestration capacity exhibits a wide range of technological and economic attractiveness. Like traditional projects in the extractive industries, geosequestration capacity should be exploited starting with the low-cost storage options first then moving gradually up the supply curve.Item Open Access SUSTAINABILITY CHOICES: IDENTIFY OPTIONAL TECHNOLOGY USING THE PECAN STREET SMART GRID DATABASE(2015-04-24) Zhang, XinxingEffective measures for tackling climate change and the depletion of nature resources such as oil and natural gas are required, particularly in the residential sector. Varying in different countries, energy consumption of the residential sector accounts for 16–50% of that consumed by all sectors, and averages approximately 30% worldwide (Lukas G. Swan, 2009). This significant consumption level warrants leads researchers to have increasing interests in the real impact brought by renewable energy technologies and electricity pricing programs on electricity usage. A number of researches are conducted around this topic but most of them are not using real-time data to support their analysis. This report investigated the impact of solar, electric vehicles and demand response/time-of-use pricing programs on household electricity consumption using data collected by Pecan Street smart grid, which is one of the world’s largest energy database, from three different perspectives: 1) electricity savings 2) cost savings for utility 3) water savings for utility. Findings from this study suggest that all of the three approaches can lead to considerable savings for utility companies, and for consumers as well. The result of this report can be used as a strong and objective support in promoting renewable energy technologies and time-of-use pricing program.Item Open Access Tailoring renewable portfolio standards to achieve disparate economic and environmental goals(2008-12-05T21:40:16Z) Martin, GarrettWithin the United States, Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) programs have become a popular public policy initiative for states to enact in order to encourage the use of renewable resources for meeting state energy demand. As more states have adopted RPS programs, the design of these programs have grown more varied and complex as states seek to increase the benefits and decrease the costs of RPS programs by tailoring program design to suit the interests and characteristics of a state. The purpose of this Masters Project is to create a primer for policymakers, interested in designing new, or amending existing, RPS programs, to better understand the policy design options available when developing an RPS program, the potential impacts of structuring an RPS program in a particular manner, and the current best practices and national trends in designing RPS programs. My report uses best practice RPS design principles, created by Wiser et al. in 2003, to evaluate the positive and negative impacts RPS component options have on each principle. The use of an energy-based compliance requirement, unbundled renewable energy certificates (RECs), REC banking, true-up periods, and clearly defined financial penalties for non-compliance are necessary components for the optimal performance of any state RPS program. The goals emphasized by different RPS programs and state-specific characteristics dictate the additional RPS components needed to complete the optimal RPS design for a state. Of the RPS design options analyzed, most have positive impacts on some best practice principles while having negative impacts on others. As a result, it is important for policymakers to clearly define the relative importance of different policy goals that an RPS program aims to achieve in order to select the appropriate RPS component options.Item Open Access Technological Change and the Environment(2003-01-01) Jaffe, Adam B; Newell, Richard G; Stavins, Robert NThis book provides a state-of-the-art review of both classical and emerging themes in forest resource economics. The authors show how neo-classical economic principles can be used to analyze forest policy issues across existing and developing market economies in the United States, Latin America, and South and Southeast Asia. The chapters encompass traditional and modern areas of concern in forest policy, including timber production and markets, multiple use forestry, and valuation of non-market benefits. These topics are developed with case studies that demonstrate rigorous empirical analysis in a manner accessible to readers with a background in intermediate microeconomic theory and statistics. The book is intended for forest economists, forest policy analysts, and graduate students studying natural resource economics.