Browsing by Author "Nigrovic, Lise E"

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    Geographic expansion of Lyme disease in Michigan, 2000-2014
    (Open Forum Infectious Diseases, 2017-01-01) Lantos, Paul M; Tsao, Jean; Nigrovic, Lise E; Auwaerter, Paul G; Fowler, Vance G; Ruffin, Felicia; Foster, Erik; Hickling, Graham
    © The Author 2017.Background. Most Lyme disease cases in the Midwestern United States are reported in Minnesota and Wisconsin. In recent years, however, a widening geographic extent of Lyme disease has been noted with evidence of expansion eastwards into Michigan and neighboring states with historically low incidence rates. Methods. We collected confirmed and probable cases of Lyme disease from 2000 through 2014 from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, entering them in a geographic information system. We performed spatial focal cluster analyses to characterize Lyme disease expansion. We compared the distribution of human cases with recent Ixodes scapularis tick distribution studies. Results. Lyme disease cases in both the Upper and Lower Peninsulas of Michigan expanded more than 5-fold over the study period. Although increases were seen throughout the Upper Peninsula, the Lower Peninsula particularly expanded along the Indiana border north along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. Human cases corresponded to a simultaneous expansion in established I scapularis tick populations. Conclusions. The geographic distribution of Lyme disease cases significantly expanded in Michigan between 2000 and 2014, particularly northward along the Lake Michigan shore. If such dynamic trends continue, Michigan-and possibly neighboring areas of Indiana, Ohio, and Ontario, Canada-can expect a continued increase in Lyme disease cases.
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    Geographic Expansion of Lyme Disease in the Southeastern United States, 2000-2014.
    (Open Forum Infect Dis, 2015-12) Lantos, Paul M; Nigrovic, Lise E; Auwaerter, Paul G; Fowler, Vance G; Ruffin, Felicia; Brinkerhoff, R Jory; Reber, Jodi; Williams, Carl; Broyhill, James; Pan, William K; Gaines, David N
    Background.  The majority of Lyme disease cases in the United States are acquired on the east coast between northern Virginia and New England. In recent years the geographic extent of Lyme disease has been expanding, raising the prospect of Lyme disease becoming endemic in the southeast. Methods.  We collected confirmed and probable cases of Lyme disease from 2000 through 2014 from the Virginia Department of Health and North Carolina Department of Public Health and entered them in a geographic information system. We performed spatial and spatiotemporal cluster analyses to characterize Lyme disease expansion. Results.  There was a marked increase in Lyme disease cases in Virginia, particularly from 2007 onwards. Northern Virginia experienced intensification and geographic expansion of Lyme disease cases. The most notable area of expansion was to the southwest along the Appalachian Mountains with development of a new disease cluster in the southern Virginia mountain region. Conclusions.  The geographic distribution of Lyme disease cases significantly expanded in Virginia between 2000 and 2014, particularly southward in the Virginia mountain ranges. If these trends continue, North Carolina can expect autochthonous Lyme disease transmission in its mountain region in the coming years.
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    Mapping the distribution of Lyme disease at a mid-Atlantic site in the United States using electronic health data.
    (PloS one, 2024-01) Lantos, Paul M; Janko, Mark; Nigrovic, Lise E; Ruffin, Felicia; Kobayashi, Takaaki; Higgins, Yvonne; Auwaerter, Paul G
    Lyme disease is a spatially heterogeneous tick-borne infection, with approximately 85% of US cases concentrated in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Surveillance for Lyme disease and its causative agent, including public health case reporting and entomologic surveillance, is necessary to understand its endemic range, but currently used case detection methods have limitations. To evaluate an alternative approach to Lyme disease surveillance, we have performed a geospatial analysis of Lyme disease cases from the Johns Hopkins Health System in Maryland. We used two sources of cases: a) individuals with both a positive test for Lyme disease and a contemporaneous diagnostic code consistent with a Lyme disease-related syndrome; and b) individuals referred for a Lyme disease evaluation who were adjudicated to have Lyme disease. Controls were individuals from the referral cohort judged not to have Lyme disease. Residential address data were available for all cases and controls. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model with a smoothing function for a coordinate location to evaluate the probability of Lyme disease within 100 km of Johns Hopkins Hospital. We found that the probability of Lyme disease was greatest in the north and west of Baltimore, and the local probability that a subject would have Lyme disease varied by as much as 30-fold. Adjustment for demographic and ecological variables partially attenuated the spatial gradient. Our study supports the suitability of electronic medical record data for the retrospective surveillance of Lyme disease.
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    The Positive Predictive Value of Lyme Elisa for the Diagnosis of Lyme Disease in Children.
    (Pediatr Infect Dis J, 2015-11) Lipsett, Susan C; Pollock, Nira R; Branda, John A; Gordon, Caroline D; Gordon, Catherine R; Lantos, Paul M; Nigrovic, Lise E
    By using a Lyme enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), we demonstrated that high ELISA index values are strongly predictive of Lyme disease. In children with clinical presentations consistent with Lyme disease, ELISA index values ≥3.0 had a positive predictive value of 99.4% (95% confidence interval: 98.1-99.8%) for Lyme disease, making a supplemental Western immunoblot potentially unnecessary.