Browsing by Author "Nolen, Tracy L"

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Open Access
A model for predicting the risk of de novo stress urinary incontinence in women undergoing pelvic organ prolapse surgery.
(Obstetrics and gynecology, 2014-02) Jelovsek, J Eric; Chagin, Kevin; Brubaker, Linda; Rogers, Rebecca G; Richter, Holly E; Arya, Lily; Barber, Matthew D; Shepherd, Jonathan P; Nolen, Tracy L; Norton, Peggy; Sung, Vivian; Menefee, Shawn; Siddiqui, Nazema; Meikle, Susan F; Kattan, Michael W; Pelvic Floor Disorders Network
To construct and validate a prediction model for estimating the risk of de novo stress urinary incontinence (SUI) after vaginal pelvic organ prolapse (POP) surgery and compare it with predictions using preoperative urinary stress testing and expert surgeons' predictions.Using the data set (n=457) from the Outcomes Following Vaginal Prolapse Repair and Midurethral Sling trial, a model using 12 clinical preoperative predictors of de novo SUI was constructed. De novo SUI was determined by Pelvic Floor Distress Inventory responses through 12 months postoperatively. After fitting the multivariable logistic regression model using the best predictors, the model was internally validated with 1,000 bootstrap samples to obtain bias-corrected accuracy using a concordance index. The model's predictions were also externally validated by comparing findings against actual outcomes using Colpopexy and Urinary Reduction Efforts trial patients (n=316). The final model's performance was compared with experts using a test data set of 32 randomly chosen Outcomes Following Vaginal Prolapse Repair and Midurethral Sling trial patients through comparison of the model's area under the curve against: 1) 22 experts' predictions; and 2) preoperative prolapse reduction stress testing.A model containing seven predictors discriminated between de novo SUI status (concordance index 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.80) in Outcomes Following Vaginal Prolapse Repair and Midurethral Sling participants and outperformed expert clinicians (area under the curve 0.72 compared with 0.62, P<.001) and preoperative urinary stress testing (area under the curve 0.72 compared with 0.54, P<.001). The concordance index for Colpopexy and Urinary Reduction Efforts trial participants was 0.62 (95% CI 0.56-0.69).This individualized prediction model for de novo SUI after vaginal POP surgery is valid and outperforms preoperative stress testing, prediction by experts, and preoperative reduction cough stress testing. An online calculator is provided for clinical use.III.
Open Access
Models for Predicting Recurrence, Complications, and Health Status in Women After Pelvic Organ Prolapse Surgery.
(Obstetrics and gynecology, 2018-08) Jelovsek, J Eric; Chagin, Kevin; Lukacz, Emily S; Nolen, Tracy L; Shepherd, Jonathan P; Barber, Matthew D; Sung, Vivian; Brubaker, Linda; Norton, Peggy A; Rahn, David D; Smith, Ariana L; Ballard, Alicia; Jeppson, Peter; Meikle, Susan F; Kattan, Michael W; NICHD Pelvic Floor Disorders Network
OBJECTIVE:To develop statistical models predicting recurrent pelvic organ prolapse, surgical complications, and change in health status 12 months after apical prolapse surgery. METHODS:Logistic regression models were developed using a combined cohort from three randomized trials and two prospective cohort studies from 1,301 participants enrolled in surgical studies conducted by the Pelvic Floor Disorders Network. Composite recurrent prolapse was defined as prolapse beyond the hymen; the presence of bothersome bulge symptoms; or prolapse reoperation or retreatment within 12 months after surgery. Complications were defined as any serious adverse event or Dindo grade III complication within 12 months of surgery. Significant change in health status was defined as a minimum important change of SF-6D utility score (±0.035 points) from baseline. Thirty-two candidate risk factors were considered for each model and model accuracy was measured using concordance indices. All indices were internally validated using 1,000 bootstrap resamples to correct for bias. RESULTS:The models accurately predicted composite recurrent prolapse (concordance index=0.72, 95% CI 0.69-0.76), bothersome vaginal bulge (concordance index=0.73, 95% CI 0.68-0.77), prolapse beyond the hymen (concordance index=0.74, 95% CI 0.70-0.77), serious adverse event (concordance index=0.60, 95% CI 0.56-0.64), Dindo grade III or greater complication (concordance index=0.62, 95% CI 0.58-0.66), and health status improvement (concordance index=0.64, 95% CI 0.62-0.67) or worsening (concordance index=0.63, 95% CI 0.60-0.67). Calibration curves demonstrated all models were accurate through clinically useful predicted probabilities. CONCLUSION:These prediction models are able to provide accurate and discriminating estimates of prolapse recurrence, complications, and health status 12 months after prolapse surgery.
Open Access
Multiple HIV-1-specific IgG3 responses decline during acute HIV-1: implications for detection of incident HIV infection.
(AIDS, 2011-11-13) Yates, Nicole L; Lucas, Judith T; Nolen, Tracy L; Vandergrift, Nathan A; Soderberg, Kelly A; Seaton, Kelly E; Denny, Thomas N; Haynes, Barton F; Cohen, Myron S; Tomaras, Georgia D
OBJECTIVE: Different HIV-1 antigen specificities appear in sequence after HIV-1 transmission and the immunoglobulin G (IgG) subclass responses to HIV antigens are distinct from each other. The initial predominant IgG subclass response to HIV-1 infection consists of IgG1 and IgG3 antibodies with a noted decline in some IgG3 antibodies during acute HIV-1 infection. Thus, we postulate that multiple antigen-specific IgG3 responses may serve as surrogates for the relative time since HIV-1 acquisition. DESIGN: We determined the magnitude, peak, and half-life of HIV-1 antigen-specific IgG1 and IgG3 antibodies in 41 HIV-1-infected individuals followed longitudinally from acute infection during the first appearance of HIV-1-specific antibodies through approximately 6 months after infection. METHODS: We used quantitative HIV-1-binding antibody multiplex assays and exponential decay models to estimate concentrations of IgG1 and IgG3 antibodies to eight different HIV-1 proteins including gp140 Env, gp120 Env, gp41 Env, p66 reverse transcriptase, p31 Integrase, Tat, Nef, and p55 Gag proteins during acute/recent HIV-1 infection. RESULTS: Among HIV-1-specific IgG3 responses, anti-gp41 IgG3 antibodies were the first to appear. We found that anti-gp41 Env IgG3 and anti-p66 reverse transcriptase IgG3 antibodies, in addition to anti-Gag IgG3 antibodies, each consistently and measurably declined after acute infection, in contrast to the persistent antigen-specific IgG1 responses. CONCLUSION: The detailed measurements of the decline in multiple HIV-specific IgG3 responses simultaneous with persistent IgG1 responses during acute and recent HIV-1 infection could serve as markers for detection of incident HIV infection.
Open Access
OnabotulinumtoxinA vs Sacral Neuromodulation on Refractory Urgency Urinary Incontinence in Women: A Randomized Clinical Trial.
(JAMA, 2016-10-04) Amundsen, Cindy L; Richter, Holly E; Menefee, Shawn A; Komesu, Yuko M; Arya, Lily A; Gregory, W Thomas; Myers, Deborah L; Zyczynski, Halina M; Vasavada, Sandip; Nolen, Tracy L; Wallace, Dennis; Meikle, Susan F
Importance: Women with refractory urgency urinary incontinence are treated with sacral neuromodulation and onabotulinumtoxinA with limited comparative information. Objective: To assess whether onabotulinumtoxinA is superior to sacral neuromodulation in controlling refractory episodes of urgency urinary incontinence. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter open-label randomized trial (February 2012-January 2015) at 9 US medical centers involving 381 women with refractory urgency urinary incontinence. Interventions: Cystoscopic intradetrusor injection of 200 U of onabotulinumtoxinA (n = 192) or sacral neuromodulation (n = 189). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome, change from baseline mean number of daily urgency urinary incontinence episodes over 6 months, was measured with monthly 3-day diaries. Secondary outcomes included change from baseline in urinary symptom scores in the Overactive Bladder Questionnaire Short Form (SF); range, 0-100, higher scores indicating worse symptoms; Overactive Bladder Satisfaction questionnaire; range, 0-100; includes 5 subscales, higher scores indicating better satisfaction; and adverse events. Results: Of the 364 women (mean [SD] age, 63.0 [11.6] years) in the intention-to-treat population, 190 women in the onabotulinumtoxinA group had a greater reduction in 6-month mean number of episodes of urgency incontinence per day than did the 174 in the sacral neuromodulation group (-3.9 vs -3.3 episodes per day; mean difference, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.13 to 1.14; P = .01). Participants treated with onabotulinumtoxinA showed greater improvement in the Overactive Bladder Questionnaire SF for symptom bother (-46.7 vs -38.6; mean difference, 8.1; 95% CI, 3.0 to 13.3; P = .002); treatment satisfaction (67.7 vs 59.8; mean difference, 7.8; 95% CI, 1.6 to 14.1; P = .01) and treatment endorsement (78.1 vs 67.6; mean difference; 10.4, 95% CI, 4.3 to 16.5; P < .001) than treatment with sacral neuromodulation. There were no differences in convenience (67.6 vs 70.2; mean difference, -2.5; 95% CI, -8.1 to 3.0; P = .36), adverse effects (88.4 vs 85.1; mean difference, 3.3; 95% CI, -1.9 to 8.5; P = .22), and treatment preference (92.% vs 89%; risk difference, -3%; 95% CI, -16% to 10%; P = .49). Urinary tract infections were more frequent in the onabotulinumtoxinA group (35% vs 11%; risk difference, -23%; 95% CI, -33% to -13%; P < .001). The need for self-catheterization was 8% and 2% at 1 and 6 months in the onabotulinumtoxinA group. Neuromodulation device revisions and removals occurred in 3%. Conclusions and Relevance: Among women with refractory urgency urinary incontinence, treatment with onabotulinumtoxinA compared with sacral neuromodulation resulted in a small daily improvement in episodes that although statistically significant is of uncertain clinical importance. In addition, it resulted in a higher risk of urinary tract infections and need for transient self-catheterizations.