Browsing by Author "Ross, Martin"
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Item Open Access A Closer Look at RGGI and Grid Reliability(2021-11-24) Hill, Sophia; Konschnik, Kate; Monast, Jonas; Ross, MartinItem Open Access Assessing Impacts of the Clean Power Plan on Southeast States(2015-05-15) Ross, Martin; Murray, Brian; Hoppock, DavidThe proposed Clean Power Plan gives U.S. states flexibility in how they attain state-level carbon dioxide emissions rate goals from existing power plants. This analysis explores the potential impact of the proposed CPP on Southeast states across a range of compliance options relative to a baseline without the CPP. The analysis presents modeling results from the Dynamic Integrated Economy/Energy/Emissions Model for eight primary compliance scenarios involving rate-based or mass-based compliance, unilateral state action or regional cooperation, and inclusion or non-inclusion of natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units as regulated entities under the CPP. Regarding electricity sector adjustments, the modeling shows that a rate-based approach initially decreases coal generation, encourages use of existing and construction of new NGCC units, and incentivizes renewable generation, although use of renewables is not cost-effective in the Southeast under baseline cost assumptions. By comparison, a mass-based approach initially increases coal generation and removes incentives for use of existing NGCC units while significantly increasing new NGCC generation. Including new NGCC units under CPP compliance shifts generation from those units to existing NGCC units under mass-based compliance and increases coal generation under rate-based compliance. Regarding policy costs, the modeling shows that individual state compliance costs vary considerably, that a mass-based approach initially entails half the costs of a rate-based approach, and that both regional rate-based and mass-based approaches create significant net cost savings over unilateral state compliance.Item Open Access Data and Modeling Infrastructure for National Integration of Ecosystem Services into Decision Making: Expert Summaries(2017-07-17) Olander, Lydia; Bagstad, Ken; Characklis, Gregory; Comer, Patrick; Effron, Micah; Gunn, John; Holmes, Tom; Johnston, Robert; Kagan, James; Lehman, William; Loomis, John; McPhearson, Timon; Neale, Anne; Patterson, Lauren; Richardson, Leslie; Ross, Martin; Saah, David; Sifleet, Samantha; Stockmann, Keith; Urban, Dean; Wainger, Lisa; Winthrop, Robert; Yoskowitz, DavidResource managers face increasingly complex decisions as they attempt to manage for the long-term sustainability and the health of natural resources. Incorporating ecosystem services into decision processes provides a means for increasing public engagement and generating more transparent consideration of tradeoffs that may help to garner participation and buy-in from communities and avoid unintended consequences. A 2015 White House memorandum from the Council on Environmental Quality, Office of Management and Budget, and Office of Science Technology and Policy acknowledged these benefits and asked all federal agencies to incorporate ecosystem services into their decision making. This working paper, expanded since its initial publication in November 2016, describes the ecological and social data and models available for quantifying the production and value of many ecosystem services across the United States. To achieve nationwide inclusion of ecosystem services, federal agencies will need to continue to build out and provide support for this essential informational infrastructure.Item Open Access Emissions Benefits of Electric Vehicles: Influencing Electricity Generation Choices(2019-11-06) Ross, MartinElectric vehicles (EVs) represent a new source of electricity demand and their market share is expanding at a fast pace. Over the next several decades, these vehicles may well become a driving force in the economy with the potential to significantly increase total electricity requirements in the United States—at a time when more traditional sources of demand in aggregate are expected to grow less than one percent a year. How electricity is generated for these vehicles will, to a large degree, determine their net emissions benefits and their value in meeting any long-term climate and environmental goals. These vehicles are entering the marketplace at a time when the electricity industry is already transforming rapidly because of changes in fuel prices, environmental regulations, and declines in the costs of renewables. The last decade has seen substantial coal-plant retirements, nuclear plants on the edge of profitability, cheap natural gas from shale fields, and the construction of many new gas combined-cycle (NGCC) and wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) plants. In this shifting environment, focusing on today’s generation mix is not particularly useful when estimating the emissions benefits of electric vehicles. For more on the policies that could maximize the air quality benefits of vehicle electrification, see “Vehicle Electrification: Coordinating Transportation and Power Sector Policies to Maximize Air Quality Benefits.”Item Open Access Ongoing Evolution of the Electricity Industry: Effects of Market Conditions and the Clean Power Plan on States(2016-07-27) Ross, Martin; Hoppock, David; Murray, BrianThe electricity industry is evolving as changes in natural gas and coal prices, along with environmental regulations, dramatically shift the generation mix. Future trends in gas prices and costs of renewables are likely to continue moving the industry away from coal-fired generation and into lower-emitting sources such as natural gas and renewables. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) is likely to amplify these trends. The CPP rule regulates emissions from existing fossil generators and allows states to choose among an array of rate-based and mass-based goals. The analysis in this paper uses the electricity-dispatch component of the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions’ Dynamic Integrated Economy/Energy/Emissions Model to evaluate electricity industry trends and CPP impacts on the U.S. generation mix, emissions, and industry costs. Several coordinated approaches to the Clean Power Plan are considered, along with a range of uncoordinated “patchwork” choices by states. The model results indicate future industry trends are likely to make compliance with the Clean Power Plan relatively inexpensive; cost increases are likely to be on the order of 0.1% to 1.0%. Some external market conditions such as high gas prices could increase these costs, whereas low gas or renewables prices can achieve many of CPP goals without additional adjustments by the industry. However, policy costs can vary substantially across states, and may lead some of them to adopt a patchwork of policies that, although in their own best interests, could impose additional costs on neighboring states.Item Open Access Pathways to Net-Zero for the US Energy Transition(2022-11-04) Ewing, John; Ross, Martin; Pickle, Amy; Stout, Robert; Murray, BrianWhat will it take to achieve a net-zero carbon emissions footprint for the US economy by 2050? This report from Energy Pathways USA helps strengthen the evidence base on what will be required for a robust US energy transition and elucidates key barriers and opportunities for reaching net-zero goals. The authors examine past and present emissions trends and highlight common threads across recent quantitative analyses of potential net-zero trajectories, identifying sectors and shifts that could significantly boost decarbonization. Transforming the electricity grid—with clean energy production, increased high-voltage transmission, and grid modernization for resilience and reliability—is critical to all of these projections. Electrifying transportation and buildings, pursuing hydrogen as a fuel source, and expanding carbon management solutions are also commonly identified as significant ways to spur decarbonization. The authors also offer an overview of the federal and state decarbonization policy landscape—including analysis of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act passed into law in 2022. “For the US to reach its climate goals, these federal government investments will need to galvanize a multiplicative effect of private and subnational investments—along with construction of infrastructure and deployment of new technology—at an unprecedented scope, scale, and pace,” the authors note. The report closes with a selection of challenges and opportunities for the US net-zero project that require further attention: - Accelerated deployment of clean electricity and the electrification of vehicles - Accelerated energy efficiency and the electrification of buildings - Development and deployment of advanced energy technologies, including hydrogen; carbon capture, utilization, and storage; direct air capture; zero-carbon liquid fuels; and advanced nuclear and geothermal energy sources - Reduced industrial-sector emissions through electrification, efficiency upgrades, the deployment of advanced energy technologies, and low- or zero-carbon fuels - Reductions in methane emissions in oil and gas exploration and development - Enhanced conservation and sequestration in forest and agricultural lands - Accelerated state and regional coordination and efforts - Ensured equitability for the energy transition - Increased domestic supply chain sourcing to support all aspects of the transition The report concludes by outlining future areas of work for Energy Pathways USA. This Duke-based endeavor brings together corporate partners and thought leaders across multiple key industries to accelerate net-zero progress in the US.Item Open Access Planning for Growing Electricity Demand During an Era of Uncertain Renewables and Climate Policy(2024-11-15) Ross, Martin; Ewing, John; Murray, Brian; Profeta, Timothy; Stout, Robert; Yoo, MichaelElectricity demand growth has accelerated significantly, a trend that is expected to continue for at least the next 5 to 10 years and is driven by new technologies such as data centers and the expansion of the manufacturing and industrial base in the United States. This demand growth is anticipated at a time when connecting new generating resources to the grid, particularly renewables, and expanding transmission has never been more difficult. New emissions rules for existing coal and new gas units (the EPA Final Greenhouse Gas [GHG] Rule) will also create additional pressure toward clean generation on the system. This analysis uses a variety of integrated resource plans from utilities and other groups to estimate how overall electricity demand may change over the next decade. The trends are then analyzed using an electricity capacity-planning-and-dispatch model to evaluate how the US system may respond in a world of high demand growth. The findings suggest that additional electricity needs are likely to be met with a combination of new natural-gas and renewables capacity. Limitations on the ability of the system to incorporate renewables may place significant upward pressure on emissions, as would repeal of parts or all of the GHG rules.Item Open Access Power Sector Carbon Reduction: An Evaluation of Policies for North Carolina(2021-03-09) Konschnik, Kate; Ross, Martin; Monast, Jonas; Weiss, Jennifer; Wilson, GennelleWell-designed clean energy policies can accelerate pollution reduction, make change more affordable for state residents and business, and stimulate job growth. For this reason, the North Carolina Clean Energy Plan—developed pursuant to Governor Cooper’s Executive Order No. 80—recommended the year-long study of carbon reduction policies for the power sector (Recommendation A1). The Duke University Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions and the University of North Carolina’s Center for Climate, Energy, Environment, and Economics jointly conducted the study. This report reflects extensive modeling, policy and economic analysis, and stakeholder engagement. It does not make specific recommendations but evaluates different policies and offers options for decarbonizing the grid.Item Open Access Projecting Electricity-Sector Investments Under the Inflation Reduction Act: New Cost Assumptions and Interactions with EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Proposal(2023-12-04) Ross, Martin; Ewing, John; Murray, Brian; Profeta, Timothy; Stout, RobertEnergy Pathways USA, an initiative of the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability at Duke University, has released a report that offers new insights into US energy transition investments. This report comprehensively models the intersecting effects of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), clean electricity development cost increases, and the impacts of proposed US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations for fossil fuels. Core findings of the modeling include: * The IRA substantially accelerates the decline in US emissions through 2032, even in the face of recent renewables cost increases. After 2032, future reductions require additional policies. * Recent increases in financing and equipment costs have disproportionately large effects on renewables and have dampened the speed of the renewables transition but not altered basic trends. * Regardless of inflation, retail electricity prices and household electricity bills decrease under the IRA. * The availability of both sites and permitting for renewables can have a major effect on emissions trends. Reductions in the scope of renewables sites can potentially lead to emissions that are 50% higher in 2032 than otherwise expected under the IRA. * The IRA can dramatically change the desired investments in renewables in some regions of the country, while other regions might adopt similar strategies irrespective of the IRA. * If natural gas prices remain low, gas generation will largely displace nuclear once the IRA production credits expire, while also displacing many potential new renewables. * The electrification of transportation can increase emissions from generation, but total generation emissions would remain at levels well below those today; even before considering emissions savings from the vehicles themselves. * Some regions will require a significant number of miles of new spur transmission lines to connect new renewables to the grid. However, interregional expansion of long-distance transmission may be limited based on current costs. * The EPA GHG proposal can potentially cut in half the emissions remaining after the conclusion of the IRA. However, the proposal does not reach net-zero emissions from generation by 2050. * Under the EPA GHG proposal, the relative prices of natural gas and hydrogen, or costs associated with retrofitting gas units to co-fire with hydrogen, can have large effects on both emissions and costs. * Prior to 2038, the majority of emissions reductions from the GHG proposal are the result of coal carbon capture and storage. After 2038, hydrogen markets contribute most of the additional reductions, along with increased renewable generation (assuming hydrogen is cost competitive with natural gas). * If the clean hydrogen needed under the EPA GHG proposal is provided by electrolysis, significant amounts of new generation may be required. Solar photovoltaics expand to meet electrolysis needs, but they may not provide all requisite electricity. Energy Pathways USA is convened by the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability based at Duke University, in collaboration with the Energy Transitions Commission. This report constitutes a collective view of Energy Pathways USA. Members of Energy Pathways USA endorse the general thrust of the arguments made in this report but should not be taken as agreeing with every finding or recommendation. The companies involved have not been asked to formally endorse the report.Item Open Access Structure of the Dynamic Integrated Economy/Energy/Emissions Model: Electricity Component, DIEM-Electricity(2014-12-08) Ross, MartinThis paper, a companion to NI WP 14-12, describes the structure of, and data sources for, the electricity component of the Dynamic Integrated Economy/Energy/Emissions Model (DIEM), which was developed at the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University. The DIEM model includes a macroeconomic, or computable general equilibrium (CGE), component and an electricity component that gives a detailed representation of U.S. regional electricity markets. The electricity model (DIEM-Electricity) discussed in thus paper can be run as a stand-alone model or can be linked to the DIEM-CGE macroeconomic model to incorporate feedbacks among economy-wide energy policies and electricity generation decisions and interactions between electricity-sector policies and the rest of the U.S and global economies. Broadly, DIEM-Electricity is a dynamic linear-programming model of U.S. wholesale electricity markets that represents intermediate- to long-run decisions about generation, capacity planning, and dispatch of units. It provides results for generation, capacity, investment, and retirement by type of plant. It also determines wholesale electricity prices, production costs, fuel use, and CO2 emissions. Currently, the model can consider, at a national policy level, renewable portfolio standards, clean energy standards, caps on electricity-sector CO2 emissions, and carbon taxes.Item Open Access The Clean Power Plan: Implications of Three Compliance Decisions for U.S. States(2015-05-16) Ross, Martin; Murray, Brian; Hoppock, David