Browsing by Author "Smith, Martin D"
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Item Open Access A Cost Impact Analysis of the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard for Investor-Owned Utilities in North Carolina(2011-04-26) Lei, TingA Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a policy tool that sets a requirement for retail sellers of electricity to provide a minimum portion of their electricity sales from renewable resources. The RPS at state levels has become one of the most important policy incentives for stimulating clean energy expansion in electricity utilities in the United States. In 2007, North Carolina promulgated a Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS), requiring the investor-owned utilities (IOUs) to meet up to 12.5% of their energy needs through renewable energy resources by 2021. This Master’s Project is designed to evaluate the cost and rate impacts of REPS on three IOUs in North Carolina from the perspective of retail market. Referring to the core modeling approaches and assumptions in the former technical report for North Carolina, this project establishes a cost impact model to compare the total annual cost of the Utilities’ Portfolio and Alternative REPS Portfolio from 2011 to 2030. The project also analyzes the impacts of different sensitivities. The results suggest that the REPS policy exerts no cost impact on IOUs until 2017 and a 0.54 cents/kWh increase of retail electricity rate will be reached in 2030 under the REPS obligation. According to sensitivity analysis, the extended availability of Production Tax Credit (PTC), high fuel price of coal and natural gas, as well as high construction cost of nuclear plant will reduce the total incremental cost of the REPS policy over 20 years. It is noted that the design of the alternative REPS Portfolio in this project introduces major differences in model results compared to the former technical report. Levelized cost assumptions and forecasts of future fossil fuel prices would bring other uncertainties to this Master’s Project.Item Open Access A Policy Impact Analysis of New England Groundfish Sectors and Effort Redirection into Mid-Atlantic Fisheries(2012-04-27) Cunningham, SamUnited States commercial fisheries are managed by regional councils whose jurisdictions are circumscribed by political boundaries. Species range often spans management borders, linking fishing regions by participation. On the East Coast, individuals commonly prosecute several fisheries managed by different councils. This study tests both the existence and magnitude of policy-induced transboundary impacts on fishery participation, with the goal of providing a quantitative starting point for further investigation into the economic and social impact of spillover fishing effort. Regulatory structures vary across a spectrum from open access to individual harvest rights. In 2010, the New England Fishery Management Council expanded a cooperative rights-based management program – “sectors” – to enhance stock sustainability and economic efficiency in the groundfish fishery. Groundfish sector management altered the deployment of fishing effort in New England. Newly idled groundfish fishers possess the potential to increase participation in regulated open access Mid-Atlantic fisheries characterized by low entry barriers. This study utilizes econometric methods to estimate the transboundary effect of sector management on Mid-Atlantic fisheries. The use of a difference-in-differences estimation strategy allows the author to evaluate the causal link between New England sector management and altered fishing effort directed towards Mid-Atlantic managed species. Econometric methodology is employed to control for exogenous factors that may also affect fishing effort and to assess the unobservable policy counterfactual of present day Mid-Atlantic effort levels in the absence of New England groundfish sectors. The study finds that the establishment of groundfish sectors does affect Mid-Atlantic fisheries, but impacts are not uniform across species nor are they uniform across the 17 groundfish sectors. Further, effort redirection can be more or less pronounced when looking at the behavior of enrolled sector members, or looking only at those sector members who are now inactive in New England fisheries. Certain sectors are identified as redirecting more effort towards Mid-Atlantic species. While cumulative effort spillover does not seem to be pushing Mid-Atlantic fisheries perilously close to capacity limits, the identified influx can impact profitability in effort-receiving fisheries and could potentially have a negative effect on socioeconomic outcomes in the greater regional fishing economy.Item Open Access A PRICING MODEL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR MANURE-BASED BIOCHAR AS A SOIL AMENDMENT(2018-04-27) Bushell, AmandaThis document explores the environmental and market opportunity for manure-based char (MBC) to be used as an agricultural soil amendment product. Biochar is a product with multiple environmental and financial benefits to farmers. Current products on the market are made from plant-based feedstocks and are priced with little consistency; the lowest market price is $50/ton, and the highest is $5000/ton with an average global price of $2200/ton (Jerka and Thayer, 2013). A new product is being developed by a gasification company utilizing manure feedstocks for a product that is highly differentiated from other chars. In this report, I discuss the price and market opportunity for manure-based biochar as a soil amendment in California. In the first section, I discuss the environmental challenges that are relevant to gasification and biochar application. These challenges include manure management, soil degradation, water-use and fertilizer use for crop and livestock farming in the United States. In the next section, the technology, business model, and location of application are explored. Then, I discuss the alternative applications for biochar and the differences between plant-based char and manure-based char as well as the farmer willingness to adopt biochar. I then use a breakeven analysis to find a minimum viable price for the biochar and a value-based pricing model to determine an appropriate target price in early years of adoption. In the breakeven analysis, I find that the minimum price for biochar that allows gasification to be profitable is $383 per ton to achieve a debt service coverage ratio of 1.00x and $485/ton to maintain a DSCR of 1.25x. The economic value-added analysis finds that a dairy feedstock could achieve a market price between $388-688 and a blended feedstock could achieve a market price between $422-722 depending on market conditions for the closest competitor, plant-based char. In the final section of the report, I conduct interviews with farmers about water and fertilizer-use as well as willingness to adopt biochar. Based on farmer interviews, I recommend that the company sell the product at $485 per ton. I also suggest that the company focuses on indoor agriculture producers who are price insensitive and then vineyard managers whose water and nutrient needs align with the attributes of the char. Finally, I recommend that the company collaborate with respected academic institutions and extension services to continue research trials and gain credibility with farmers in California. The document will be submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Environmental Management degree in the Nicholas School of the Environment of Duke University to be made available to the public and will be shared with the company developing the technology to aid in market development.Item Open Access A Toolkit for Identifying Energy Savings at Colleges and Universities(2012-04-26) Davis, ElizaAcross the country college and university leaders are beginning to recognize the financial and reputational benefits of saving energy and “going green”. However school administrators and other campus leaders face institutional, behavioral, and economic barriers to identifying energy-saving opportunities on their own. To address these challenges a “toolkit” was developed to help college and university leaders identify energy-saving upgrades and programs, calculate project costs and savings, and communicate the value of these investments to key stakeholders. The toolkit includes a menu of energy efficiency projects appropriate for college and university campuses as well as detailed explanations of how to calculate the expected project costs and savings. This resource walks users through the process of benchmarking and tracking campus energy use over time and introduces key calculations to consider for all energy investments such as net present value, payback period, and avoided greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally the toolkit addresses the importance of education and engagement for successful adoption of energy efficiency programs. Finally, the toolkit includes two case studies about identifying energy-saving projects at universities in North Carolina. This is a free and accessible guidebook designed for use by school administrators, faculty, staff, and students who want to identify ways for their institutions to save money, reduce energy use, and cut greenhouse gas emissions. The toolkit can be used as an alternative to hiring an energy consultant or enrolling in a green building certification program or as a complementary resource for an institution that already plans to take these steps. The author hopes that the use of this toolkit will encourage community dialogue on environmental issues and will inspire a lasting commitment to sustainability on college and university campuses.Item Open Access Application of Global Value Chains to Seafood Sustainability: Lessons from the mahi mahi industries of Ecuador and Peru(2014-04-25) Nanninga, Roxanne; Anhalzer, GabrielaFish products have become the most traded food commodities worldwide but wild fish stocks face ever-increasing pressure from rising demand (Smith et al., 2010). Over 75% of the world’s fisheries are currently either fully or over exploited (FAO, 2014). Developing sustainable fisheries is critical if seafood is to remain available for future generations. Global Value Chain (GVC) analysis frames these challenges holistically by linking global and local scales in order to elucidate operations and relationships throughout the international supply chain. In this study we employ the GVC framework to analyze the production of mahi mahi (Coryphaena hippurus) from Ecuador and Peru that is exported to the United States. Information was collected from stakeholder interviews and analyzed in conjunction with trade and production data. This information was then used to construct product flow patterns, characterize governance structures, and provide insights for potential economic and environmental improvements. The importance of mahi mahi as an export commodity to small-scale fishers in developing countries combined with its highly migratory life history typify many of the challenges facing modern global fisheries. Peru and Ecuador together produce the highest volumes of mahi mahi globally. Nearly 60% of all mahi mahi imported into the United States comes from these two countries. In this analysis, we examine global trends in production and trade and track the two main product forms of mahi mahi—fresh and frozen—through the supply chain. This study also examines the transactions between actors in the supply chain and the private and public institutions acting upon them. Government regulations for fisheries, human health and safety, as well as international standards exert control at each level of the supply chain. Recently sustainability has become an additional criterion guiding the sourcing and sale of seafood. The US, one of the largest seafood buyers in the world, imports over 80% of its seafood. Private, market-based initiatives have emerged as a means of improving seafood sustainability in areas outside US fisheries management. The most prominent of these programs is the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), which aims to create demand-driven premiums or preferences for certified products. Motivated by their substantial shares in the US market, Ecuador and Peru are undergoing Fishery Improvement Projects for their mahi mahi fisheries, ultimately aimed at attaining MSC certification. Through an analysis of the governance structures our study examines the influence of various actors within the value chain. We thereby determine which actors hold the greatest leverage to affect changes regarding the decision-making and enforcement of sustainability. Adoption of initiatives that engage in more sustainable seafood sourcing by retailers in the United States creates pressure downstream to implement sustainability standards. Large companies and supply chain segments that are highly integrated can exert more power through the products they buy and sell on downstream supply chain actors. The Peruvian and Ecuadorian mahi mahi fleets are largely comprised of informal networks of artisanal fishers with relatively low technological capabilities. This scenario poses challenges to the effective implementation of private standards and fishery regulations. By contrast, processing plants exert a high degree of control over the supply and production of fish, better positioning them to implement or enforce sustainability measures. Our study recommends improvements for the industry’s environmental and economic outcomes. We do so by evaluating the position of both Ecuador and Peru in the global market and their progress on pre-existing sustainability programs. These include discussion on the importance of sustainable and innovative financing tools for market-based initiatives as well as the need for increased transparency and coordination. Our recommendations, informed by a comprehensive understanding of the value chain, may prove useful to industry leaders and environmental organizations interested in improving sustainability practices.Item Open Access BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING OF CONTAMINATED BLUEFIN TUNA AND ATLANTIC MACKEREL FISHERIES DYNAMICS(2009-04-23T20:56:34Z) Press, MichaelFollowing the discovery of acute mercury toxicity from seafood consumption in the 1950s and subsequent research into mercury in the environment, scientists and managers now recognize the health threats of mercury poisoning from seafood consumption, especially in fetuses, infants, and children. Unfortunately, consumers remain confused or uneducated about species-specific mercury concentrations, thus perpetuating the risks associated with contaminated seafood. This study models the bio-economic dynamics of a system involving two species consumed by humans: a highly mercury-contaminated predator, bluefin tuna, and a tuna prey fish with low levels of contamination, Atlantic mackerel. Model scenarios evaluate varying levels of mercury pollution, consumer aversion to mercury, and fishes’ biological resistance to mercury poisoning to determine optimal harvest rates and population sizes for both species. The results demonstrate that while the mackerel fishery remains largely unaffected by the influence of mercury, optimal harvest and population of tuna depend greatly upon their biological resistance to mercury and consumers’ aversion to purchasing mercury-contaminated fish. When resistance to mercury is low, both tuna population and harvest decrease. When consumer aversion is high, harvest decreases and population increases. Increased mercury pollution exacerbates both effects. Due to lack of previous such studies and the paucity of empirical data, this research is both exploratory and qualitative in nature. Effective fisheries conservation and management requires understanding the strength of both fish resistance and consumer aversion to mercury. Future research should address the lack of empirical data, both biological and economic, as well as refine the above model in order to assist managers in appropriate consumer education and setting fisheries management goals that couple sustainability and public health.Item Open Access Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.(PLoS One, 2015) McNamara, Dylan E; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya; Smith, Martin D; Murray, A BradHuman population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.Item Open Access Coal- and Biomass-to-Liquids: A Comparative Analysis(2007-05) Ferrari, Oliver DGlobally, there is growing interest in advancing alternatives to petroleum-derived transportation fuel in order to mitigate the risks posed by energy insecurity and global climate change. Coal-to-liquids (CTL) and biomass-to-liquids (BTL) represent promising means of supplementing or supplanting refined petroleum products, particularly diesel fuel. This work evaluates the technical and economic aspects of coalto- liquids and biomass-to-liquids, and concludes that both technologies may offer an economic means of replacing petroleum products. It is shown that CTL is more technically proven and more economic, but represents a potentially tremendous new source of carbon dioxide emissions.Item Open Access Coastal Migration and Climate Adaptation(2020-04-20) Sugerik, Corey; Zhu, KunxinThe increasing risk associated with more frequent and severe hurricanes and flooding, coastal erosion, and sea level rise have led to more consideration of human migration away from the coast of the United States. The decision to migrate is a complex process that weighs a variety of factors, and climate related risks play only a small role in that process. This project attempts to shed light on the various factors that influence migration decision making and tries to develop a quantitative and qualitative understanding of the weight that climate change and its associated risks play in that decision making. This project utilizes a survey delivered to Florida homeowners and a regression analysis of the infoUSA dataset to begin to unpack these challenging questions. The results from the survey provided insight into how much weight climate risks carried in the decision to migrate compared to other life events, and also provided quantitative results for willingness-to-accept buyouts and willingness-to-pay for a “rentback” scenario. The results from the regression analysis found that the potential positive relationship between migration and natural disaster is highly sensitive to the definition of migration, suggesting that micro-level data might be more helpful for the research question. This project serves as a jumping-off point for further research and studies on coastal migration and climate adaptation.Item Open Access Cold-Ironing as a Cost-Effective Tool for Improving Sustainability in the Shipping Industry(2012-04-20) Weiner, Paul-HarveyThe marine transportation sector stands as a major component of the global economy, delivering goods from major producing markets in Asia and the Pacific region to major consumer markets in Europe and North America. The United States Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration recorded over a billion tons of foreign trade through U.S. ports in 2009. Given the economic importance of this sector, its inclusion in future environmental remediation regimes is key. But any improvement in the environmental performance of shipping must take into account the fact that requirements that make shipping more expensive relative to other forms of transport would likely result in an overall negative environmental outcome. This master’s project investigates whether or not cold-ironing, a method by which ships use shore-side electric power rather than auxiliary engines while in port, can improve environmental performance in a cost-effective manner. The analysis involved constructing a model that compared operational costs under business-as-usual conditions with operational costs following the deployment of cold-ironing. A deterministic analysis was first undertaken to explore how historic movements in fuel and electricity prices affected the magnitude of savings. This was followed by a stochastic analysis using a monte carlo simulation to explore how variations in fuel prices, electricity prices, and ship operating characteristics affected the expected level of savings across an entire fleet. The results demonstrated that cold-ironing could deliver substantial savings, dependent on the relative magnitudes of fuel and electricity prices. Overall, smaller ships did not experience savings as they could not recoup the costs of the cold-ironing retrofit. A sensitivity analysis showed that changing operational characteristics, such as the number of engines in operation on a ship, had a large impact on savings. Governments and port authorities need to look where their interests in environmental improvement align with those of ship operators that can benefit economically from the use of cold-ironing to aid in the deployment of the shore-side infrastructure necessary to expand the use of this tool.Item Open Access Consumer Demand for Sustainable American Shrimp(2009-04-24T17:45:34Z) Greene, MaryIncreasing competition from foreign imports and rising fuel prices have seriously threatened the Gulf of Mexico shrimp fishery. If the industry is to survive, fishermen must receive more money for their shrimp. This crisis presents an opportunity to address the environmental degradation caused by shrimp trawling, while at the same time providing economic stability for fishermen. By marketing their shrimp as both American and environmentally friendly, fishermen may be able to increase the price of their shrimp. This study investigates consumer willingness to pay for American and environmentally labeled shrimp using survey methodology., Evidence of increased willingness to pay on the part of consumers may provide the impetus necessary to convince fishermen to change their fishing strategies and earn an eco-friendly label.Item Open Access Effects of Fuel Costs and Market Product Price on Catch of Small Pelagic Fish: Market Study of the Sardine Fishery in the Gulf of California(2017-04-28) Arenas, EstebanFrom a management perspective, what is the best use of forage fish? Global landings of forage fish comprise approximately 16% of the global wild marine fish catch. Forage fish provide livelihoods and a protein source for millions of people worldwide. Also, forage fish are a critical food source for transferring energy from plankton to higher trophic levels in marine ecosystems. Knowing their significance, should forage fish be made into fish meal and used in agriculture, canned for domestic human consumption, frozen fresh as feed for blue fin tuna mariculture, or left in the ocean to serve ecological functions? Recognizing that this is a complex topic, this projects aims to analyze the sardine Mexican fishery solely from an economic standpoint and identify externalities or relationships in the market that, if managed differently, could have significant effects on economic incentives for the use of sardines. Fuel subsidies are analyzed as a potential tool to influence fishing behavior. It’s found that higher fuel prices and differences between high and low quality market sardine prices, incentivize a greater percent catch of high quality sardines. This implies higher production of canned sardine products and thus potentially addressing food security concerns. This economic analysis of the use of the sardine resource in Mexico can consequently be complemented by social, environmental, or other tailored analyses.Item Open Access Effects of the Global Seafood Trade on Health and Nutritional Security(2019-04-24) Dietz, David; Colson Leaning, DustinThe global seafood trade represents the world’s largest food commodity market by value, generating massive economic flows across nations of all development levels. On top of the financial importance of this supply chain, seafood provides a broad range of nutritional benefits, from fats and proteins to key micronutrients. Building off of the dynamics of the Seafood Trade Deficit hypothesis, which asserts that developing nations export higher-value seafood than they import, this study seeks to determine whether such a value exchange extends to nutrition, and if the price of seafood is positively correlated with nutritional density. Using a six-nation, one-year comparative case-study approach, a global seafood trade database was generated. This database maps all international seafood trades by species and product type and affixes unique nutritional profiles for each good. This data demonstrates additional quantitative support of the Seafood Trade Deficit, as well as economic trade flows that suggest unique price-points of seafood depending on the development status of each nation participating. A hedonic pricing model displays strong evidence that the finfish market has a radically different relationship between price and nutrition compared to all other seafood product types. While price was positively correlated to macro-nutritional density of protein and fat in finfish, the market for other seafood products did not demonstrate the same positive correlation between price and nutritional benefit. Looking forward, we recommend expanding the database to include seafood trade across all countries within a longer time frame to increase the scope of reference and refine our findings. For more information, please contact David at ddietz92@gmail.com or Dustin at dzcolson@gmail.com.Item Open Access Electric Utility Demand Side Management: Defining and Evaluating Achievable Potential(2008-04-25T20:58:21Z) Frisch, CarlaProjections of demand side management efficiency potential can inform electric utility program design and policy compliance. Beyond technology and cost, “achievable potential” estimates explore factors that facilitate end-use efficiency advances. This study compiles state level ex ante achievable potential estimates, explores estimation methods, and compares ex ante estimates with ex post energy efficiency load reductions. Quantitative analysis indicates that ex ante estimates and ex post reductions are correlated; they do not differ significantly. While ex ante estimates may appropriately estimate ex ante reductions, ex ante estimates are noisy and capture little variation in the ex post efficiency gains. Qualitative review of demand side management program evaluations identifies multiple factors absent from achievable potential estimates. Inclusion of these factors could refine achievable potential estimates. Generally, achievable potential estimates have improved over the past decade but remain hindered by inconsistency and oversimplified assumptions. This study provides a platform for continued clarification of achievable potential definitions and estimation methods. The importance of achievable potential accuracy grows with demand side management’s role in climate change strategy.Item Open Access ENV 350S / PUBPOL 280S Seminar in Marine Conservation Leadership(2016) Stefanski, Stephanie; Smith, Martin DDuke PhD student Stephanie Stefanski recently taught a class focused on the process of designing, implementing, and analyzing the results from an economic valuation survey. The class was given as a module to inform the broader class themes of policy design and cost-benefit analysis in fisheries and marine resource management. The data file contains 1,526 observations of U.S. households who responded to an online Qualtrics survey in May 2012 about their familiarity with and willingness to pay to protect marine biodiversity in the Gulf of Mexico by paying additional taxes to fund an expansion of a marine sanctuary in the northern Gulf. There are 92 variables, which include socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, their answers to willingness to pay questions, and their answers to debriefing questions. Stephanie gave a presentation describing the context and motivation of the study and the main questions used in the survey. She then demonstrated to students the different data analysis commands and coding in Stata to visualize the data through histograms and frequency charts. These data visualizations informed the different types of regression analyses Stephanie taught the class. Finally, the students separated into small groups to discuss one of four policy implication discussion questions. The purpose of the exercise is to help students think critically about survey design and implementation, and how the results of surveys can be used to inform a variety of policies and to better understanding why people support environmental policy. The module successfully engaged students in learning about a published study and the data collection and analysis process it entailed. The class discussion fostered critical thinking about how to connect this type of data analysis and survey design to their own research and to addressing environmental challenges and policies beyond the scope of the study.Item Open Access Evaluating the Economics of Power Market Restructuring in North Carolina(2011-04-27) Xiaoyuan, GuIn the last century, the electric power market has been transformed to be more competitive around U.S. Several states have deregulated the industry and expect lower energy prices and higher social benefits to result. However, the electric industry is still operated in a regulated market in many states, including North Carolina (NC). Proposals for power market restructuring have been declined by governments for more than ten years and the legislation and utility commission of North Carolina is still under investigation. This master project is designed to evaluate the costs and benefits of power market restructuring in NC from the perspective of suppliers using a case study of a coal-fired plant. It uses the Roxboro plant, which belongs to Progress Energy. The basic Cost-Benefit Analysis model and sensitivity analysis considering uncertain energy prices and sales amounts have been conducted to estimate the power plant’s annual net benefit and total Net Present Value in the next two decades under three scenarios. The results indicate that integrating the Roxboro plant into a competitive market will bring the most profits, while merging to Duke Energy and keeping operation in a regulated market will bring the least ones. However, further studies including financial and environmental performance, transmission expansion and other major related factors are necessary for the analysis about power market restructuring’s influence at the company scale.Item Open Access EVALUATING TRADE-OFFS IN AN ECOSYSTEM-BASED FISHERY MANAGEMENT PARADIGM: AN EXPLORATION THROUGH ANALYSIS OF THE ATLANTIC BUTTERFISH AND LONGFIN SQUID FISHERIES(2013-04-25) Rogers, Anthony; Carlisle, Keith; Wang, JiaxiThe Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, our client for this masters project, is evaluating how best to transition from a primarily single-species management approach to an integrated multi-species management paradigm. In this connection, we explore how economic considerations may be incorporated into an integrated multi-species management approach by focusing on two closely associated stocks managed by the Council: longfin squid and Atlantic butterfish. We take several different approaches in our analysis of the two fisheries, our ultimate objectives being (i) to characterize the behavior of the fleets based upon historical landings data and geospatial analysis; and (ii) to provide the Council with insight into the potential impact of management constraints and ecosystem interactions on economic benefits in the fisheries. To illustrate potential impacts to economic benefits, we develop a two-species bioeconomic model and derive optimal harvest levels for the stocks, taking into account varying degrees of management constraints and ecosystem interactions. Based upon our analysis of landings data, we found that the Council’s allocation of the longfin squid landings quota among trimester management periods is no longer representative of actual landings in the fishery throughout the year. As a result, there is potential that the fishery may be forced to close prematurely in the summer months, thereby reducing economic benefits to participants who are highly dependent on revenues from the fishery. We also found, based upon our geospatial analysis of butterfish landings and butterfish bycatch in the longfin squid fishery, that a statistically significant correlation exists between the distance to shore from the point of catch and the butterfish bycatch rate. With respect to the model, we explored the importance of three parameters not generally included in a single-species model: predation, bycatch by fishermen, and benefits to the longfin squid population of additional butterfish. We found that all three have potential economic impacts. We also found that the amount of the total allowable catch of butterfish allocated to a bycatch cap imposed on the longfin squid fishery is higher than necessary to prevent early closure of the longfin squid fishery and could result in lost revenues in the butterfish fishery.Item Open Access EVALUATING TRADE-OFFS IN AN ECOSYSTEM-BASED FISHERY MANAGEMENT PARADIGM: AN EXPLORATION THROUGH ANALYSIS OF THE ATLANTIC BUTTERFISH AND LONGFIN SQUID FISHERIES(2013-04-25) Carlisle, Keith; Rogers, Anthony; Wang, JiaxiThe Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, our client for this masters project, is evaluating how best to transition from a primarily single-species management approach to an integrated multi-species management paradigm. In this connection, we explore how economic considerations may be incorporated into an integrated multi-species management approach by focusing on two closely associated stocks managed by the Council: longfin squid and Atlantic butterfish. We take several different approaches in our analysis of the two fisheries, our ultimate objectives being (i) to characterize the behavior of the fleets based upon historical landings data and geospatial analysis; and (ii) to provide the Council with insight into the potential impact of management constraints and ecosystem interactions on economic benefits in the fisheries. To illustrate potential impacts to economic benefits, we develop a two-species bioeconomic model and derive optimal harvest levels for the stocks, taking into account varying degrees of management constraints and ecosystem interactions. Based upon our analysis of landings data, we found that the Council’s allocation of the longfin squid landings quota among trimester management periods is no longer representative of actual landings in the fishery throughout the year. As a result, there is potential that the fishery may be forced to close prematurely in the summer months, thereby reducing economic benefits to participants who are highly dependent on revenues from the fishery. We also found, based upon our geospatial analysis of butterfish landings and butterfish bycatch in the longfin squid fishery, that a statistically significant correlation exists between the distance to shore from the point of catch and the butterfish bycatch rate. With respect to the model, we explored the importance of three parameters not generally included in a single-species model: predation, bycatch by fishermen, and benefits to the longfin squid population of additional butterfish. We found that all three have potential economic impacts. We also found that the amount of the total allowable catch of butterfish allocated to a bycatch cap imposed on the longfin squid fishery is higher than necessary to prevent early closure of the longfin squid fishery and could result in lost revenues in the butterfish fishery.Item Open Access EVALUATING TRADE-OFFS IN AN ECOSYSTEM-BASED FISHERY MANAGEMENT PARADIGM: AN EXPLORATION THROUGH ANALYSIS OF THE ATLANTIC BUTTERFISH AND LONGFIN SQUID FISHERIES(2013-04-25) Wang, Jiaxi; Rogers, Anthony; Carlisle, KeithThe Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, our client for this masters project, is evaluating how best to transition from a primarily single-species management approach to an integrated multi-species management paradigm. In this connection, we explore how economic considerations may be incorporated into an integrated multi-species management approach by focusing on two closely associated stocks managed by the Council: longfin squid and Atlantic butterfish. We take several different approaches in our analysis of the two fisheries, our ultimate objectives being (i) to characterize the behavior of the fleets based upon historical landings data and geospatial analysis; and (ii) to provide the Council with insight into the potential impact of management constraints and ecosystem interactions on economic benefits in the fisheries. To illustrate potential impacts to economic benefits, we develop a two-species bioeconomic model and derive optimal harvest levels for the stocks, taking into account varying degrees of management constraints and ecosystem interactions. Based upon our analysis of landings data, we found that the Council’s allocation of the longfin squid landings quota among trimester management periods is no longer representative of actual landings in the fishery throughout the year. As a result, there is potential that the fishery may be forced to close prematurely in the summer months, thereby reducing economic benefits to participants who are highly dependent on revenues from the fishery. We also found, based upon our geospatial analysis of butterfish landings and butterfish bycatch in the longfin squid fishery, that a statistically significant correlation exists between the distance to shore from the point of catch and the butterfish bycatch rate. With respect to the model, we explored the importance of three parameters not generally included in a single-species model: predation, bycatch by fishermen, and benefits to the longfin squid population of additional butterfish. We found that all three have potential economic impacts. We also found that the amount of the total allowable catch of butterfish allocated to a bycatch cap imposed on the longfin squid fishery is higher than necessary to prevent early closure of the longfin squid fishery and could result in lost revenues in the butterfish fishery.Item Open Access Fish is food--the FAO's fish price index.(PLoS One, 2012) Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Asche, Frank; Bellemare, Marc F; Smith, Martin D; Guttormsen, Atle G; Lem, Audun; Lien, Kristin; Vannuccini, StefaniaWorld food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations-which compiles prices for other major food categories-has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of global seafood prices that can help to understand food crises and may assist in averting them. The fish price index (FPI) relies on trade statistics because seafood is heavily traded internationally, exposing non-traded seafood to price competition from imports and exports. Easily updated trade data can thus proxy for domestic seafood prices that are difficult to observe in many regions and costly to update with global coverage. Calculations of the extent of price competition in different countries support the plausibility of reliance on trade data. Overall, the FPI shows less volatility and fewer price spikes than other food price indices including oils, cereals, and dairy. The FPI generally reflects seafood scarcity, but it can also be separated into indices by production technology, fish species, or region. Splitting FPI into capture fisheries and aquaculture suggests increased scarcity of capture fishery resources in recent years, but also growth in aquaculture that is keeping pace with demand. Regionally, seafood price volatility varies, and some prices are negatively correlated. These patterns hint that regional supply shocks are consequential for seafood prices in spite of the high degree of seafood tradability.