Browsing by Author "Thompson, James P"

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    Future living arrangements of Singaporeans with age-related dementia.
    (International psychogeriatrics, 2012-10) Thompson, James P; Riley, Crystal M; Eberlein, Robert L; Matchar, David B

    Background

    With rapid aging, Singapore faces an increasing proportion of the population with age-related dementia. We used system dynamics methodology to estimate the number and proportion of people with mild, moderate, and severe dementia in future years and to examine the impact of changing family composition on their likely living arrangements.

    Methods

    A system dynamics model was constructed to estimate resident population, drawing birth and mortality rates from census data. We simulate future mild, moderate, and severe dementia prevalence matched with estimates of total dementia prevalence for the Asian region that includes Singapore. Then, integrating a submodel in which family size trends were projected based on fertility rates with tendencies for dependent elderly adults with dementia to live with family members, we estimate likely living arrangements of the future population of individuals with dementia.

    Results

    Though lower than other previous estimates, our simulation results indicate an increase in the number and proportion of people in Singapore with severe dementia. This and the concurrent decrease in family size point to an increasing number of individuals with dementia unlikely to live at home.

    Conclusions

    The momenta of demographic and illness trends portend a higher number of individuals with dementia less likely to be cared for at home by family members. Traditions of care for frail elderly found in the diverse cultures of Singapore will be increasingly difficult to sustain, and care options that accommodate these demographic shifts are urgently needed.
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    Implications of long-term care capacity response policies for an aging population: a simulation analysis.
    (Health policy (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 2014-05) Ansah, John P; Eberlein, Robert L; Love, Sean R; Bautista, Mary Ann; Thompson, James P; Malhotra, Rahul; Matchar, David B

    Introduction

    The demand for long-term care (LTC) services is likely to increase as a population ages. Keeping pace with rising demand for LTC poses a key challenge for health systems and policymakers, who may be slow to scale up capacity. Given that Singapore is likely to face increasing demand for both acute and LTC services, this paper examines the dynamic impact of different LTC capacity response policies, which differ in the amount of time over which LTC capacity is increased, on acute care utilization and the demand for LTC and acute care professionals.

    Methods

    The modeling methodology of System Dynamics (SD) was applied to create a simplified, aggregate, computer simulation model for policy exploration. This model stimulates the interaction between persons with LTC needs (i.e., elderly individuals aged 65 years and older who have functional limitations that require human assistance) and the capacity of the healthcare system (i.e., acute and LTC services, including community-based and institutional care) to provide care. Because the model is intended for policy exploration, stylized numbers were used as model inputs. To discern policy effects, the model was initialized in a steady state. The steady state was disturbed by doubling the number of people needing LTC over the 30-year simulation time. Under this demand change scenario, the effects of various LTC capacity response policies were studied and sensitivity analyses were performed.

    Results

    Compared to proactive and quick adjustment LTC capacity response policies, slower adjustment LTC capacity response policies (i.e., those for which the time to change LTC capacity is longer) tend to shift care demands to the acute care sector and increase total care needs.

    Conclusions

    Greater attention to demand in the acute care sector relative to demand for LTC may result in over-building acute care facilities and filling them with individuals whose needs are better suited for LTC. Policymakers must be equally proactive in expanding LTC capacity, lest unsustainable acute care utilization and significant deficits in the number of healthcare professionals arise. Delaying LTC expansion could, for example, lead to increased healthcare expenditure and longer wait lists for LTC and acute care patients.
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    Stakeholders' perspective on issues and challenges associated with care and treatment of aging-related cognitive impairment disorders in Singapore.
    (International psychogeriatrics, 2011-11) Setia, Monika; Islam, Amina M; Thompson, James P; Matchar, David B

    Background

    An expanding elderly population poses challenges for the provision of care and treatment for age-related physical and mental disorders. Cognitive impairment (CI)/dementia is one such mental disorder that is on the rise in Singapore and has concomitant implications for social and health systems. The objective of this study is to understand the perspectives of prominent stakeholders about current and future issues and challenges associated with CI/dementia among the elderly in Singapore.

    Methods

    Using indepth interviews, this qualitative study obtained the views of multiple stakeholders on issues and challenges associated with CI/dementia in Singapore. The 30 individuals interviewed as part of the study included clinicians, policy-makers, researchers, community workers, administrators, and caregivers. Using a framework approach, interview texts were indexed into domains and issues by utilizing NVivo 9.0 software.

    Results

    The stakeholders expressed concerns related to multiple domains of the CI/dementia care system: attitude and awareness, economics, education, family caregiving, inputs to care system, living arrangements, prevention, screening and diagnosis, and treatment and management of care. Within each domain, multiple issues and challenges were identified by respondents.

    Conclusions

    The study identifies a complex set of inter-related issues and challenges that are associated with the care and treatment of people with CI/dementia. The results suggest that CI and dementia profoundly affect patients, families, and communities and that the issues related to the two disorders are truly system-wide. These findings lay the foundation for utilization of a systems approach to studying CI/dementia and provide an analytic framework for future research on complex health care issues.
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    Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective.
    (Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2011-09) Carrasco, Luis R; Lee, Vernon J; Chen, Mark I; Matchar, David B; Thompson, James P; Cook, Alex R
    Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.