Browsing by Author "Uelmen, JA"

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    Dynamics of data availability in disease modeling: An example evaluating the tradeoffs of ultra-fine-scale factors applied to human West Nile virus disease models in the Chicago area, USA
    (PLoS ONE, 2021-05-01) Uelmen, JA; Irwin, P; Brown, WM; Karki, S; Ruiz, MO; Li, B; Smith, RL
    Background Since 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has moved rapidly across the United States, resulting in tens of thousands of human cases. Both the number of human cases and the minimum infection rate (MIR) in vector mosquitoes vary across time and space and are driven by numerous abiotic and biotic forces, ranging from differences in microclimates to sociodemographic factors. Because the interactions among these multiple factors affect the locally variable risk of WNV illness, it has been especially difficult to model human disease risk across varying spatial and temporal scales. Cook and DuPage Counties, comprising the city of Chicago and surrounding suburbs, experience some of the highest numbers of human neuroinvasive cases of WNV in the United States. Despite active mosquito control efforts, there is consistent annual WNV presence, resulting in more than 285 confirmed WNV human cases and 20 deaths from the years 2014-2018 in Cook County alone. Methods A previous Chicago-area WNV model identified the fifty-five most high and low risk locations in the Northwest Mosquito Abatement District (NWMAD), an enclave the size of the combined Cook and DuPage county area. In these locations, human WNV risk was stratified by model performance, as indicated by differences in studentized residuals. Within these areas, an additional two-years of field collections and data processing was added to a 12-year WNV dataset that includes human cases, MIR, vector abundance, and land-use, historical climate, and socio-economic and demographic variables, and was assessed by an ultra-fine-scale (1 km spatial x 1 week temporal resolution) multivariate logistic regression model. Results Multivariate statistical methods applied to the ultra-fine-scale model identified fewer explanatory variables while improving upon the fit of the previous model. Beyond MIR and climatic factors, efforts to acquire additional covariates only slightly improved model predictive performance. Conclusions These results suggest human WNV illness in the Chicago area may be associated with fewer, but increasingly critical, key variables at finer scales. Given limited resources, these findings suggest large variations in model performance occur, depending on covariate availability, and provide guidance in variable selection for optimal WNV human illness modeling.
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    Effects of winter temperatures, spring degree-day accumulation, and insect population source on phenological synchrony between forest tent caterpillar and host trees
    (Forest Ecology and Management, 2016-02-15) Uelmen, JA; Lindroth, RL; Tobin, PC; Reich, PB; Schwartzberg, EG; Raffa, KF
    Global climate change has the potential to dramatically alter multiple ecosystem processes, including herbivory. The development rates of both plants and insects are highly sensitive to temperature. Although considerable work has examined the effects of temperature on spring phenologies of plants and insects individually, few studies have examined how anticipated warming will influence their phenological synchrony. We applied elevated temperatures of 1.7 and 3.4. °C in a controlled chamberless outdoor experiment in northeastern Minnesota, USA to examine the relative responses in onset of egg eclosion by forest tent caterpillar (. Malacosoma disstria Hübner) and budbreak of two of its major host trees (trembling aspen, Populus tremuloides Michaux, and paper birch, Betula papyrifera Marshall). We superimposed four insect population sources and two overwintering regimes onto these treatments, and computed degree-day models. Timing of egg hatch varied among population source, overwintering location, and spring temperature regime. As expected, the development rates of plants and insects advanced under warmer conditions relative to ambient controls. However, budbreak advanced more than egg hatch. The degree of phenological synchrony between M. disstria and each host plant was differentially altered in response to warming. The interval by which birch budbreak preceded egg hatch nearly doubled from ambient to +1.7 °C. In the case of aspen, the sequence changed from egg hatch preceding, to following, budbreak at +3.4 °C. Additionally, under temperature regimes simulating future conditions, some insect populations currently south of our study sites became more synchronous with the manipulated hosts than did currently coexisting insect populations. These findings reveal how climate warming can alter insect-host plant interactions, through changes in phenological synchrony, possibly driving host shifts among tree species and genotypes. They also suggest how herbivore variability, both among populations and within individual egg masses, may provide opportunities for adaptation, especially in species that are highly mobile and polyphagous.
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    Modeling community COVID-19 transmission risk associated with U.S. universities
    (Scientific Reports, 2023-12-01) Uelmen, JA; Kopsco, H; Mori, J; Brown, WM; Smith, RL
    The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is among the worst in recent history, resulting in excess of 520,000,000 cases and 6,200,000 deaths worldwide. The United States (U.S.) has recently surpassed 1,000,000 deaths. Individuals who are elderly and/or immunocompromised are the most susceptible to serious sequelae. Rising sentiment often implicates younger, less-vulnerable populations as primary introducers of COVID-19 to communities, particularly around colleges and universities. Adjusting for more than 32 key socio-demographic, economic, and epidemiologic variables, we (1) implemented regressions to determine the overall community-level, age-adjusted COVID-19 case and mortality rate within each American county, and (2) performed a subgroup analysis among a sample of U.S. colleges and universities to identify any significant preliminary mitigation measures implemented during the fall 2020 semester. From January 1, 2020 through March 31, 2021, a total of 22,385,335 cases and 374,130 deaths were reported to the CDC. Overall, counties with increasing numbers of university enrollment showed significantly lower case rates and marginal decreases in mortality rates. County-level population demographics, and not university level mitigation measures, were the most significant predictor of adjusted COVID-19 case rates. Contrary to common sentiment, our findings demonstrate that counties with high university enrollments may be more adherent to public safety measures and vaccinations, likely contributing to safer communities.
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    Supercooling points of diapausing forest tent caterpillar (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) eggs
    (Canadian Entomologist, 2016-10-01) Uelmen, JA; Duman, JG; Lindroth, RL; Schwartzberg, EG; Raffa, KF
    Forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner; Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) is a widely distributed defoliator that undergoes intermittent outbreaks. It overwinters as pharate larvae within egg bands, is univoltine, and experiences low winter temperatures in its northern range. Little is known about how low temperatures affect winter survival and cold tolerances, their cold tolerance strategy, or how cold tolerances may vary over time and among populations. We evaluated supercooling points (SCPs) from four populations of M. disstria eggs collected along a 552 km latitudinal gradient from southern Wisconsin to northern Minnesota, United States of America. To test for potential effects of winter environment, we also administered three overwintering regimes (Madison, Wisconsin; Cloquet, Minnesota; Ely, Minnesota). Supercooling points were recorded in November, February, and March of 2011-2012. Supercooling points varied with maternal source (egg band), time of winter season, population source, and overwintering treatment. Means ranged from -26.8 °C (±0.5 °C) to -40.3 °C (±0.3 °C), accordingly. In a separate laboratory experiment, 89% of pharate larvae held at -20 °C (18.3 °C above coolest mean SCP) survived, but none held at -45 °C (6.7 °C below lowest mean SCP) survived. This relatively high degree of cold tolerance in its overwintering stage, due to freeze avoidance, may partially explain survival patterns and limits of overwintering M. disstria in northern populations.
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    Sustainability Impacts of Installing Low-Flow Toilets in a University Residence Hall
    (Sustainability (United States), 2020-04-01) Uelmen, JA; Aley, I; Nehls, B; Hicks, A
    This study evaluates the sustainability impact of replacing inefficient toilets with low-flow units in a residence hall at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. A graduate student initiated this project through the university's Green Fund, which supports initiatives that improve the sustainability of campus facilities and engages students in the process. Each toilet upgraded to an efficient unit is estimated to save at least $2,380 in utility bills and reduce water usage and greenhouse gas emissions by 54 percent over the life of the unit. This simple intervention strategy does not require any changes to daily habits, yet contributes to significant reductions in water consumption. The partnership between students and staff offers educational potential both for those involved in the project and those impacted by the upgrades. Other institutions of higher education may want to consider upgrades to high-efficiency toilets for their potential to conserve large amounts of water and save thousands of dollars in utility costs over the life of the units.