Browsing by Author "Urban, Dean"
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Item Open Access 1 Linking Land Use and Water Quality: Guiding Development Surrounding Durham County’s Drinking Watershed(2012-04-26) Levin, Katie RoseAbstract Linking Land Use and Water Quality: Guiding Development Surrounding Durham County’s Drinking Watershed By Katie Rose Levin May 2012 Cities and Counties have an obligation to provide water to their citizens in the quality and quantity necessary to support a viable existence. To meet these demands, in 1929 Durham City dammed the Flat River, creating the reservoir named “Lake Michie” in the far north eastern part of Durham County. Although located in a primarily rural area, there are signs that stormwater runoff is having detrimental effects on Lake Michie. The reservoir has already lost a quarter of its holding capacity to sedimentation, and was recently classified as Eutrophic by the USGS. Development pressure will only increase, as for the last ten years Durham County’s population has grown faster than the average across the state. To address development concerns, Durham county and city created the Unified Development Ordinance (UDO) which provides enhanced protection for the land in the Lake Michie Watershed. The UDO limits the amount of impervious surface allowed on any one parcel in the watershed to 6%, while allowing a transfer of development between parcels to discourage urban sprawl. In addition to the protection afforded by codes, Durham managers are interested in creating a unified conservation scheme, based on preserving parcels as forested areas. This Project provides information and maps that can be used for conservation planning. Through combining topography, soils, and land use, areas likely to have highest impact on water quality are highlighted. Using this information, parcels can be evaluated based on their relative impact on water quality. Likewise, parcels can be compared against each other for the relative impact they have on water quality, informing transfers of impervious surface areas to meet development code. By combining the scientific evaluation of land use effects with the political boundaries of parcel ownership officials can easily translate science into the politics of conservation and development. Just like the New Hope Creek and Eno River conservation maps, now Lake Michie has a scientifically based conservation map to help officials and land managers preserve water quality into the future. Adviser: Dr. Dean UrbanItem Open Access A Farmland Conservation Plan for the Southern Appalachian Highlands Conservancy(2012-04-24) Graham, StephaniePrivate land conservation in the United States has increased in recent years, largely through the efforts of non-profit land trusts, willing private landowners, and state and federal grant programs. As a reaction to sprawling development in agriculturally important lands, many conservation organizations are increasing their efforts to protect working farms. This project worked with the Southern Appalachian Highlands Conservancy (SAHC) integrating ArcGIS and the Farm and Ranch Lands Protection Program (FRPP) to identify individual parcels within seven counties in western North Carolina that would qualify for federal funding of conservation easements. A model was created to identify 2-3 focus areas within each county that contain working farmlands that meet FRPP requirements. A tool was also created that evaluates any tract of land within their service area for the percentage of important farmland soils and the percentage of open space. Both the model and the tool were created with the preferences of SAHC and the specificity of the North Carolina FRPP 2011 Ranking Sheet.Item Open Access A Geospatial Approach to Understanding Poaching Behavior of ESA-listed and Endemic Dudleya on Santa Cruz Island within Channel Islands National Park(2023-04-28) Wood, EmilyThe Covid 19 pandemic has catalyzed the increase in plant poaching incidents, particularly with species of Dudleya in California. As people were confined to their homes, houseplant collecting popularity rose worldwide. For Santa Cruz Island, the threat is great with large areas of land and few on-ground managers to monitor for such risks. These managers face the challenge of how best to predict poaching before it occurs in an area to maximize the efficiency of their smaller staff. Using geospatial data, I model three distinct poaching behaviors to gain a better understanding on how to proactively monitor for poaching events. I also use the models to identify areas where certain poaching behaviors are not represented, presenting an opportunity for model tuning through site visits. Through proactive behavioral modeling, land managers have an increased understanding of where to focus their attention to minimize poaching risk.Item Open Access A MULTICRITERIA FRAMEWORK TO EXTEND THE NORTH CAROLINA NATURAL HERITAGE PROGRAM’S CONSERVATION PLANNING TOOL(2009-04-23T23:22:35Z) Mahoney, PatrickThe protection of natural communities is essential to preserving biodiversity and wildlife habitat across an increasingly developed and fragmented landscape. The North Carolina Natural Heritage Program has produced a scoring of sites across the state using a geospatial tool that ranks sites based upon their importance to biodiversity and wildlife habitat. This scoring uses mostly datasets related to the presence of rare and threatened species. The tool developed in this study extends the rankings produced by the Natural Heritage Program to include other attributes of biodiversity and wildlife habitat, including site context, geometry and variety of abiotic conditions. Dataset measures of these attributes were developed and built into a geospatial tool that produces a ranking of sites. This enables the identification of areas of conservation value that are not well represented in the Natural Heritage Program’s current model. The geospatial datasets used as inputs for the model are structured using multi-attribute utility theory, allowing users to assign utility values to datasets and manipulate the weights received by each dataset in the final scoring. This allows decision-makers to incorporate their own opinions about what contributes to biodiversity value in the ranking of sites, and is transparent in the choices that they have made. This produces a ranking of sites that is representative of a variety of attributes of biodiversity value and explicitly demonstrates the user-specific decisions that were made in its production. This type of ranking is not meant to replace the professional opinions of decision-makers, but can help to guide inquiries into the conservation value of a site where data does not exist on rare and threatened species and help to compare sites that possess similar levels of known biodiversity.Item Open Access A MULTIVARIATE ASSESSMENT OF THE CONNECTICUT LAKES FOREST ECOSYSTEM , NH(2007-05) LaPlante, SarahFollowing 100 years of intense timber harvest and in the face of potential future development, the northeastern forest ecosystem is in a period of transition. To protect forest biodiversity, wildlife habitat, water quality and recreational needs, New Hampshire Fish and Game (NHFG) acquired 25,000 acres of this forest in 2002. With the intent of tracking change and management progress in this complex ecosystem, NHFG is currently designing a monitoring program to implement in the near future. This document applies ordination techniques to analyze both forest structure and forest species composition in an attempt to compare the state of the current forest with its future potential forest type. Techniques applied here can guide the design of future monitoring efforts. Forest structure variables were analyzed using a principal components analysis (PCA) and forest species composition variables were analyzed with a non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) technique. Species composition was further examined to search for distinct clusters in the NMS ordination. Current forest structure was found to be similar for all plots, regardless of their future forest potential. It is possible that either past harvesting in this region diminished natural variation between forest types, or that differences within forest types are greater than those between forest types. Current forest species composition analysis revealed that there are subtle differences between plots based on species composition, but that those differences did not align by potential forest type. Existing differences are present through a gradient, not in distinct forest types. Further analysis and exploration of these techniques will give NHFG a practical, integrated tool to gauge health and track change in this complex ecosystem.Item Open Access A Multivariate Framework for Evaluating the Management of Protected Areas(2008-05-09T12:53:32Z) Rieder, EricaAs the human population grows, Earth’s natural resources are under increasing threat from deforestation, biodiversity loss, pollution, and habitat fragmentation. For many years conservation scientists have set aside protected areas to preserve intact landscapes. Today, the network of protected areas covers over 12% of the world’s landmass. However, management of these areas is often constrained by varying financial, physical and scientific resources. Therefore, effective management is key to the success of protected areas in conserving biodiversity. Over the last decade, international NGOs and government agencies have developed tools to monitor management effectiveness (ME).
This project uses multivariate analysis to assess one of these methods. The Management Effectiveness Tracking Tool (METT) was created by the Wildlife Conservation Foundation and the International Bank to monitor the strengths and weaknesses in protected area ME around the world. It contains an Assessment Form with 33 questions that measure ME on a scale of 0-100. In this study, METT responses from 526 parks in 57 countries were analyzed with Principal Components Analysis and Factor Analysis to find common themes. The goal was to understand what determines good management.
The results indicated that the following six factors account for the trends within ME: personnel capacity, tourism, local community involvement, resource inventory, equipment and budget. Results also suggest that the current design of the METT Assessment Form could be improved to effectively measure ME. To address this issue, further research is recommended to develop a structural model to improve the definition of ME.
Item Open Access A Site Prioritization for Shortleaf Pine Restoration in Duke Forest(2022-12-10) Sneed, AnneHistorically, shortleaf pine forests spanned some 70-80 million acres in the U.S. Since then, the species has declined dramatically—today, only 6 million acres of shortleaf-dominated forests remain, roughly 10 percent of its historic range. North Carolina alone has seen a 60 percent decline in shortleaf pine acreage since 1990. There are several reasons for the decline, including fire suppression, land use changes from forest to urban-suburban development, and disease and pests. Due to these losses, the Duke Forest is seeking to restore shortleaf pine on its land. For this project, key site characteristics of Duke Forest parcels are collected, analyzed, and compared to historical data using geospatial analysis and habitat suitability modeling. The analysis is then used to identify candidate restoration sites for shortleaf pine within Duke Forest’s Durham and Korstian divisions. This site prioritization sets the stage for a successful restoration project of shortleaf pine in Duke Forest.Item Open Access ACE Basin National Wildlife Refuge Forest Inventory and Carbon Stock Analysis(2021-12-08) Murphy, Mary CarltonThe ACE Basin National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) is 11,815 acres of critical wildlife habitat in South Carolina’s Lowcountry region. The Refuge contains a mosaic of forest types, including upland pine and hardwood, bottomland hardwood, and cypress-tupelo swamps. Periodic forest inventories serve to update Refuge managers on current forest conditions and identify areas outside of desired forest conditions. Desired Forest Conditions (DFC) are defined forest composition and structure metrics representing critical wildlife habitat. Active forest management, including thinning and prescribed fire, is often used on NWRs to meet DFC metrics, and thereby promote and enhance wildlife habitat. This project consisted of a 10-week forest inventory field assessment of ACE Basin NWR to evaluate current forest conditions in relation to DFC metrics. A subsequent analysis quantified how potential forest management activities to achieve DFC metrics would affect carbon stocks. Project findings suggest that most Refuge forests are outside of desired conditions and require a suite of management activities to achieve optimal wildlife habitat. These activities, however, will reduce forest carbon stocks and this project suggests forest management practices that may address these tradeoffs.Item Open Access AN EVALUATION OF MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE OUTBREAKS IN COLORADO AND WYOMING UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE USING GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS(2011-04-26) Allen, NatalieIn the past two decades, the native mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) has decimated the pine forests of Colorado and Wyoming. These infestations are an issue for local communities because of the loss of ecosystem services that these forests provide, the potential for increased fire risk in the dead stands, and the unattractive appearance of these dead trees, which result in lower property values and is an eyesore for the local population. Previous research has linked climate change to increased outbreak levels and the range expansion of this beetle. In my study, a geospatial analysis was used to identify susceptible forests under current and future climate conditions based on the mountain pine beetle’s temperature tolerance and host vegetation requirements. A climate envelope model was used, and thus the results determine the potential for mountain pine beetle attack but do not evaluate the results of future attacks. Historically, cold winter temperatures limited the range and magnitude of outbreaks; however, under the IPCC’s A1B climate scenario, nearly all of the pine forests in the study area will be susceptible by 2050. Under this scenario, some 400,000 additional acres of forest will become susceptible to outbreaks by 2050, an increase of about 8.5%. The new areas that will become at risk include the San Isabel National Forest, Gunnison National Forest, Grand Mesa National Forest, and Uncompahgre National Forest. Forested areas just to the west of Colorado Springs that were once protected by cold winter temperatures will become increasingly susceptible to outbreaks. Under future conditions, climate change adaptation mechanisms such as forest restoration will be increasingly important. Because of a lack of resources for large-scale management operations, small-scale suppression strategies, such as the use of pheromones, insecticides, and thinning, will be particularly important at the wildlands-urban interface and other sites of local importance. The lessons from this beetle can be used to direct future forest and climate change policies, and highlight the need to increase resources for adaptation in order to protect natural areas, improve landscape-level management, reduce other stresses to the environment, and enhance the natural resilience of forest ecosystems.Item Open Access AN UPDATED ANALYSIS OF PRIORITY LANDS FOR CONSERVATION IN THE ELLERBE CREEK WATERSHED(2022-04-21) Shapiro, Shana; Keller, SashaTraditionally, conservation organizations sought to protect the most pristine land from the pressures of conversion and degradation. The conserved lands were identified by their inherent ecological value such as biodiversity or their proximity to bodies of water. The legacy of protecting important ecological areas often overlooked natural spaces in urban areas because they were near developed areas or were themselves developed and required restoration. The contrast between urban and rural land protection led to more conservation outside urban areas and made the spaces and ecosystem services even more difficult to access. Our client, the Ellerbe Creek Watershed Association (ECWA), is a Durham nonprofit organization looking to contend with the conservation of natural spaces in an urban area in a more equitable way. Founded in 1999, ECWA was born from the realization that invasive species were proliferating in Durham. Through the use of conservation easements, fee simple acquisition, and transfers ECWA now owns and manages 450 acres of conserved lands. They work to protect and improve the Ellerbe Creek with the help of volunteers, and they are working to expand their efforts with equity and environmental justice at the forefront. ECWA first partnered with The Nicholas School to prioritize conservation lands in 2012. Yacobson (2013) constructed ECWA’s first geospatial tool to identify target areas, and our project works to update and reconstruct the model with both ecological and equity perspectives. Following a multi-criteria decision analysis framework, we constructed an adjustable model that will allow ECWA to find the most opportune areas for conservation according to their needs. Additionally, we emphasized equity as a core component of the analysis. Like many land trusts, ECWA has limited time and resources to devote to geospatial expertise. A driving goal for the project was to create a usable tool for ECWA’s limited GIS infrastructure. We created an easy-to-access, standardized, and easy-to-update model that includes datasets that are reliably funded and managed. Additionally, we synchronized our data with regional conservation efforts and built on established research in the Durham area. In collaboration with ECWA, we decided to base the prioritization on four main themes: (1) Water quality, (2) Habitat, (3) Equity, and (4) Accessibility potential. We combined the criteria from each theme in both equally weighted and adjusted weighting scenarios, resulting in different parcel conservation score rankings. Overall, the prioritization tool fulfills the need for a usable and adjustable tool that identifies the most opportune parcels for conservation. We provide maps and tables of the contributing criteria scores as well as the overall scores for different weighting scenarios. We find that when equity or accessibility are emphasized and weighted more heavily in the model, the resulting parcels with the highest conservation values are in distinctly different locations from model results where water quality or habitat are weighed more heavily. When equity and accessibility are weighed slightly higher than water quality or habitat, the parcels with the highest conservation value are located in more urban areas with lower socioeconomic status. The differences in conservation value based on the weighting scheme reflect how the priorities of a conservation organization can affect which parcels are most sought for conservation. The results can then inform conservation planning, project evaluation, educational outreach, and communication efforts for ECWA as they continue their work to protect the Ellerbe Creek watershed’s quality and provide more equitable access to green space.Item Open Access Are National Parks Islands? A Comparative Biodiversity Approach(2022-04-22) Bukovnik, IsabelThis project was a case study undertaken on behalf of the National Parks Conservation Association (NPCA). NPCA is a national non-profit organization that advocates for the protection and enhancement of the National Park System through issues like climate change, park funding, historical preservation, and wildlife conservation. With a more recent organizational shift to focusing on biodiversity conservation within National Parks, NPCA has become interested in ways to evaluate National Park units through the lens of biodiversity. This case study evaluates a single National Park, Yosemite, to see how well the biodiversity within the park represents the biodiversity of the larger surrounding area. In doing so, I develop a method for NPCA to use in future evaluations of other park units. Additionally, in this report I explore how well the park represents species of cultural importance to Indigenous tribes with ties to the Yosemite area. Yosemite National Park is located in the southern stretch of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, close to the Nevada border. To answer the question of how representative Yosemite’s biodiversity is of the surrounding area, I calculated an index of compositional dissimilarity, Bray-Curtis distance, for samples inside as compared to outside the Park (with “outside” defined by a 50-km buffer around the Park boundary). While the Bray-Curtis Index normally uses species occurrence data (counts of how many individuals of each species are present in each community), this approach proved untenable for this analysis because species occurrence data within Yosemite’s boundaries showed acute spatial bias, with observations clustered around the park’s most popular attractions and missing from the difficult to access backcountry regions of the park. Because of this, I turned to a dataset created by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protections (CALFIRE). This dataset, which covers the entire state of California, maps 65 different Wildlife Habitat Relationships (WHR’s) at high thematic and spatial resolution. These categories range from single-species types (such as red fir) to more general habitat types (such as Sierran Mixed conifer forest or barren rock). This map allowed me to measure both habitat variety and abundance (calculated by the area covered by each WHR type) across the study site. Because my study site spans an elevation range of almost 4,000 meters, it was necessary to subdivide the site to make ecologically relevant comparisons. Based on information provided by Yosemite National Park, five ecologically distinct “vegetation zones” exist within the park boundary. Upon further exploration, it became clear that the lowest elevation zone (500-900 m above sea level) was present in such small amounts within the park as to warrant exclusion from this analysis. The study area was then randomly sampled with 2,000 cells measuring 1 km2 each (1,000 cells inside the park and 1,000 cells in the buffer area). The cells were then intersected with the California vegetation map, and the area of each WHR Type within each cell was calculated. The average area of each WHR Type was calculated for each elevation band within the park. The average composition (area per vegetation type) for each elevation band was then used to calculate the Bray-Curtis distance to each cell, both inside and outside the park. Boxplots were generated to summarize the results. Finally, the Bray-Curtis distances displayed as four maps, with each cell color coded by its compositional dissimilarity from the mean composition for each of the elevation bands. The results of this analysis show that overall, Yosemite National Park and its surrounding area contain a large diversity of wildlife habitat types. The Park is representative of the surrounding area’s biodiversity, with two key exceptions: (1) the paucity of the lowest elevation zone (and its biodiversity) within park boundaries and (2) a key difference in the biodiversity present on the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada mountains. Because the mountain range cuts diagonally through the park, the biodiversity present on the eastern side (outside of the park boundary) was dissimilar from that of the western side (inside the park boundary), due to a rain shadow effect. This dissimilarity was particularly evident in the Upper Montane Forest and, to a lesser degree, the Subalpine vegetation zones. I attempted to address the question of how well the park represents those species of cultural significance to Indigenous tribes, but I was unable to gain access to a key database curated by the Yosemite National Park, and therefore had to make do with publicly available information. This data, like other the occurrence data, was geographically clustered within the park, and I was therefore unable to make meaningful comparisons. In order to do evaluations of this kind in the future, it will be necessary to either have access to higher quality data, or collect that data in the field. Throughout this case study I have documented every step of the data exploration and analysis. This includes writing scripts in R and Python and creating tools in ArcGIS Pro that allow the user to input their own data and perform similar analyses. While this study only covers one park, these tools will allow my client to evaluate other park units in a similar fashion, providing them with key insight into how well parks across the nation are representing their surrounding biodiversity.Item Open Access ASSESSING THE BIODIVERSITY SUPPORT POTENTIAL OF FOREST PATCHES FOR CONSERVATION PLANNING(2008-12-04T19:39:07Z) Leddick, JesseBiological diversity is a critical component controlling ecosystem function and resiliency, yet it remains difficult to measure at the spatial and temporal scales relevant to conservation. Recently, biodiversity surrogates have emerged as a potentially useful tool for estimating the ability of a habitat patch to support biological diversity over the long-term, termed biodiversity support potential. The objective of the present study was to assess the biodiversity support potential of forest habitat patches in North Carolina. I used the diversity of unique land cover types and biophysical conditions as surrogates for biodiversity. Biophysical conditions were captured through the use of terrain-based indices: a topographic convergence index, potential radiation load, and elevation; these were indexed and combined to generate unique environmental conditions affecting the distribution of plant community types. Modeled estimates of soil moisture were ground-truthed to verify that topographic convergence is a reasonable index of soil moisture. Natural Heritage Element Occurrences were used to weight discrete environmental conditions and land covers according to their current biodiversity value. Finally, Significant Natural Heritage Areas were used as a reference to assesses whether biodiversity surrogates effectively capture habitats presumed to have the highest biodiversity value, and thus, whether surrogates are capable of evaluating existing networks of protected lands and identifying conservation priorities. The study revealed that both environmental settings and vegetation community types may be effectively used as surrogates for biodiversity. While surrogate assessment suggests that current biodiversity value (estimated by weighted metrics) should be considered distinct from biodiversity support potential (estimated by unweighted zip code diversity), both metrics are relevant and should be incorporated into conservation planning initiatives. Using geospatial tools developed in this study, estimates of biodiversity support potential and value can be generated for all regions of the United States using existing, publicly available data. Environmental settings may be adjusted to capture the most relevant characteristics of each ecoregion, especially as additional data sets (including fine-scale soils data) becomes nationally available. Biodiversity surrogates may also be readily calibrated through the use Natural Heritage data. Thus, I call for increased cooperation and data-sharing in future conservation planning and implementation efforts.Item Open Access Assessing the Hydrologic Implications of Land Use Change for the Upper Neuse River Basin(2010-04-30T16:59:49Z) Conaghan, KellyLand cover plays a vital role in the chemistry and the quantity of runoff, and therefore can indirectly have an immense impact on the water quality of stream and river systems. Simulation models have become extremely useful tools available to watershed managers as geospatial environmental datasets become increasingly more available. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a deterministic hydrologic model that can predict hydrologic conditions over various temporal and spatial scales. This project evaluates the accuracy of the SWAT model for the Upper Neuse River Basin, while comparing two land use scenarios in an effort to identify sensitive regions in the watershed. A regression analysis between observed and predicted stream velocity demonstrated that the initial model required calibration of stream parameters in order to more accurately model the natural system. After calibration, stream sedimentation values were compared by subbasin between a current (2001) and future (2010) land use scenario, in order to identify areas in the watershed that were the most susceptible to degradation via urbanization. Out of the 138 catchments delineated in the watershed, 29 experienced no relative change while the remaining 109 all displayed an increase in the relative difference of the sedimentation rate between scenarios. Subbasins with the greatest potential for degradation were identified and prioritized for conservation efforts or further analysis. The subbasins experiencing the highest increase in both the relative change as well as the percent change in sediment yield are all in either Wake or Durham County, suggesting a need for conservation planning in these regions. Moreover, through examining the spatial variability of these results, the influence of regional characteristics like slope, land use and soil type can be exemplified. The tremendous variation in sediment yield that occurs with urbanization suggests that local spatial conditions can exert a noticable influential on water quality and should be taken into account to maximize future management efforts. Overall, environmental tools such as the SWAT model demonstrate their usefulness in helping inform land use decisions, and can assist environmental managers in protecting water quality.Item Open Access Avian Population Trends in the Pacific Northwest(2009-04-24T13:24:27Z) Schoenbaechler, CaimeeLand bird populations are facing a growing number of threats including habitat loss, climate change, loss of stratospheric ozone, and toxic pollution. In response to land bird monitoring needs by federal agencies, the High Cascades Ranger District in Prospect, OR, began implementation of mist-netting efforts as established by the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program in 1994. Site specific population trends were analyzed using regression and non metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMS) ordination analysis over a fourteen year period, and then compared to regional trends using the MAPS web-based query. Of thirty nine species, four demonstrated significantly increasing trends, while two species demonstrated significantly decreasing trends in regression analysis. Site-specific trends were consistent with regional trends. Regression analysis also revealed a significant correlation between abundance and climate factors, specifically temperature and precipitation. The NMS ordination did not reveal clear ecological trends, but did show that species composition varies with net placement. Climate factors, life history strategy, productivity, and survivorship were factors used to interpret population trends. Continued MAPS monitoring will facilitate our understanding of shifts in avian populations and their ranges that will most likely occur in light of increased land use and climate change.Item Open Access Best Practices for Integrating Ecosystem Services into Federal Decision Making(2015-07-20) Olander, Lydia; Johnston, Robert; Tallis, Heather; Kagan, Jimmy; Maguire, Lynn; Polasky, Steve; Urban, Dean; Boyd, James; Wainger, Lisa; Palmer, MargaretFederal agencies take many actions that influence ecosystem conditions and change the provision of ecosystem services valued by the public. To date, most decisions affecting ecosystems have relied on ecological assessments with little or no consideration of the value of ecosystem services. Best practice for ecosystem services assessments is to apply quantitative measures and methods that express both an ecosystem’s capacity to provide valued services and, through those services, social benefit (value). Although preference evaluation methods are well established, their implementation can be infeasible because of time or resource constraints, particularly when new data need to be collected. In such cases, the minimum standard recommended for an ecosystem services assessment is to use measures that go beyond narrative description and that are carefully constructed to reflect the ecosystem’s capacity to provide benefits to society but that stop short of a formal assessment of people’s preferences. These measures of ecosystem services are benefit-relevant indicators (BRIs). Their use ensures that ecosystem services assessments measure outcomes that are demonstrably relevant to human welfare, rather than biophysical measures that might not be relevant to human welfare. If ecosystem service values or BRIs are not used in some manner, ecosystem services are not being assessed, and no direct insights can be drawn about effects on social welfare. This minimum best practice is broadly achievable across agencies and decision contexts with current capacity and resources.Item Open Access Classification of stream biological condition within the Chesapeake Bay watershed(2009-04-25T04:39:46Z) Talal, Michelle LeeHuman land use activities at the landscape scale are increasingly the largest threat to the biological condition of watershed and stream ecosystems. The Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW), a particularly valuable watershed within the United States, has undergone considerable land use change over the past 400 years and faces many restoration challenges. Using fish indicators of biological integrity (IBIs), and data for land use, land cover, and environmental attributes, five empirical models (CART model, Random Forest, Conditional Tree, Conditional Forest, and ordinal logistic regression) were used to predict the biological condition of 1st-3rd order streams within the CBW. After the models were evaluated using resubstitution and 10-fold cross validation, the highest performing model was identified (Random Forest) and extrapolated to 71,182 stream sites within the CBW using geographic information software (GIS). Of these sites, 49% (35,006 sites) were classified as having “Good” biological condition, 24% (16,826 sites) as having “Fair” biological condition, and 27% (19,350 sites) as having “Poor” biological condition. The variable importance plot generated by the Random Forest (RF) model showed that watershed area (upslope of sampling location, km2) was the most important variable, followed by percentage of impervious surface cover, and percentage of pasture cover. Additionally, the Random Forest’s partial dependence plots showed the marginal effect of each variable on the class probability. As watershed area (km2) increases, there is a higher probability of a “fair” or “good” classification of stream biological condition; with a threshold watershed area of approximately 20 – 25 km2. Also, as the percentage of impervious surface cover increases, there is a greater probability of a poor classification of stream condition (threshold of ~5% impervious surface cover). The results of this study may help environmental and land use managers understand the effects of human land use and make more effective land use decisions to address watershed impairment within the CBW.Item Open Access Clean Water Through Conservation in the Jordan Lake Watershed(2019-04-25) Tucker, Emily; Ray, James; Parks, RyanWatershed management is becoming increasingly holistic. Novel approaches are needed to satisfy the interests of diverse stakeholders – including municipal water users, environmental groups, and agricultural communities. In the rapidly developing Jordan Lake Watershed, stakeholders are eagerly seeking comprehensive approaches to prevent further water quality degradation and the loss and fragmentation of ecological resources. We present an approach for identifying these opportunities. First, we identify high quality natural areas that should be protected to maintain water quality. Second, we highlight riparian restoration areas that maximize pollutant retention and bridge the watershed’s biodiversity hotspots. Finally, we evaluate the financial costs and benefits farmers face when adopting conservation agricultural practices to determine where they will be most successful. In combination, these practices can protect, connect and restore a high-functioning watershed.Item Open Access Climate and Conservation: Site Prioritization in the North Carolina Coastal Plains(2022-04-22) Gaffney, MichaelLand trusts are typically focused on preserving land for the purposes of recreation, education, and biodiversity. Recently, however, many land trusts have begun to see their rationale extending beyond these traditional goals to include using land for different kinds of social benefits. Working with the North Carolina Coastal Land Trust, my project designed a geospatial method of analysis to optimize site prioritization for traditional conservation values as well as climate adaptation and mitigation. More specifically, I developed a method of ranking and selecting parcels for NCCLT based on their capacity to promote biodiversity, reduce flooding (through the restoration of headwater wetlands), and sequester carbon (through forestation and wetland restoration). I applied this method to two watersheds in eastern North Carolina, the Upper Cashie and the Waccamaw, and provided a ranked list of properties recommended for conservation.Item Open Access Climate Change and Climate Analogs for the Southern Appalachians(2023-04-27) Ochocki, Chloe; Schoenecker, Rachel; Thompson, MichelleThe National Park Service aims to manage the natural resources within its protected lands and preserve biodiversity in the face of today’s biggest environmental challenges, including climate change. In this project we used a water balance model to explore possible changes in vegetation ranges in Shenandoah and Great Smoky Mountains national parks under climate change conditions, to inform the decisions of park managers. We plotted vegetation coverages of interest in a “climate space” defined by actual evapotranspiration and deficit, and change vectors charted the graphical movement of vegetation classes from historic to climate change conditions. These movements were translated to geographical shifts using analog maps. Based on our analyses, the vegetation within the two national parks undergo drastic changes to their historical hydrologic domains under climate change conditions. While our analysis was limited by coarse data resolution, it provides an important framework to begin understanding the implications of climate change for NPS units across the country.Item Open Access Conserving Brook Trout in Southern Appalachia: A Case Study in Building Public-Private Partnerships(2008-04-24T22:44:16Z) Bounds, JoannaAs with many of our natural resources, Brook Trout, Salvelinus fontinalis, are in need of protection on private lands. Increasing development and poor agricultural practices have removed or degraded much of this species’ habitat in western North Carolina. In order to protect remaining Brook Trout habitat in this region, the Southern Appalachian Biodiversity Project held the Brook Trout Summit with the purpose of promoting public-private partnerships between private landowners and government conservation agencies. Specifically, this summit introduced farmers and developers to conservation easements and the conservation incentive programs that would allow them to preserve and restore riparian habitat. This research used a survey to assess the Summit’s effectiveness in 1. attracting private landowners, 2. increasing participants’ knowledge of the conservation programs and partners that they can become involved with to conserve Brook Trout habitat, and 3. encouraging the formation of public-private partnerships. Analysis of survey results showed that the Summit was effective in increasing participants’ knowledge and encouraging the formation of partnerships, but was unable to attract sufficient numbers of private landowners. Suggestions for improvement of the summit format are explored and recommendations for future endeavors, including a second Brook Trout Summit, are discussed.