Browsing by Author "Zhou, Mingyuan"
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Item Open Access Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022-04) Cramer, Estee Y; Ray, Evan L; Lopez, Velma K; Bracher, Johannes; Brennen, Andrea; Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J; Gerding, Aaron; Gneiting, Tilmann; House, Katie H; Huang, Yuxin; Jayawardena, Dasuni; Kanji, Abdul H; Khandelwal, Ayush; Le, Khoa; Mühlemann, Anja; Niemi, Jarad; Shah, Apurv; Stark, Ariane; Wang, Yijin; Wattanachit, Nutcha; Zorn, Martha W; Gu, Youyang; Jain, Sansiddh; Bannur, Nayana; Deva, Ayush; Kulkarni, Mihir; Merugu, Srujana; Raval, Alpan; Shingi, Siddhant; Tiwari, Avtansh; White, Jerome; Abernethy, Neil F; Woody, Spencer; Dahan, Maytal; Fox, Spencer; Gaither, Kelly; Lachmann, Michael; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Scott, James G; Tec, Mauricio; Srivastava, Ajitesh; George, Glover E; Cegan, Jeffrey C; Dettwiller, Ian D; England, William P; Farthing, Matthew W; Hunter, Robert H; Lafferty, Brandon; Linkov, Igor; Mayo, Michael L; Parno, Matthew D; Rowland, Michael A; Trump, Benjamin D; Zhang-James, Yanli; Chen, Samuel; Faraone, Stephen V; Hess, Jonathan; Morley, Christopher P; Salekin, Asif; Wang, Dongliang; Corsetti, Sabrina M; Baer, Thomas M; Eisenberg, Marisa C; Falb, Karl; Huang, Yitao; Martin, Emily T; McCauley, Ella; Myers, Robert L; Schwarz, Tom; Sheldon, Daniel; Gibson, Graham Casey; Yu, Rose; Gao, Liyao; Ma, Yian; Wu, Dongxia; Yan, Xifeng; Jin, Xiaoyong; Wang, Yu-Xiang; Chen, YangQuan; Guo, Lihong; Zhao, Yanting; Gu, Quanquan; Chen, Jinghui; Wang, Lingxiao; Xu, Pan; Zhang, Weitong; Zou, Difan; Biegel, Hannah; Lega, Joceline; McConnell, Steve; Nagraj, VP; Guertin, Stephanie L; Hulme-Lowe, Christopher; Turner, Stephen D; Shi, Yunfeng; Ban, Xuegang; Walraven, Robert; Hong, Qi-Jun; Kong, Stanley; van de Walle, Axel; Turtle, James A; Ben-Nun, Michal; Riley, Steven; Riley, Pete; Koyluoglu, Ugur; DesRoches, David; Forli, Pedro; Hamory, Bruce; Kyriakides, Christina; Leis, Helen; Milliken, John; Moloney, Michael; Morgan, James; Nirgudkar, Ninad; Ozcan, Gokce; Piwonka, Noah; Ravi, Matt; Schrader, Chris; Shakhnovich, Elizabeth; Siegel, Daniel; Spatz, Ryan; Stiefeling, Chris; Wilkinson, Barrie; Wong, Alexander; Cavany, Sean; España, Guido; Moore, Sean; Oidtman, Rachel; Perkins, Alex; Kraus, David; Kraus, Andrea; Gao, Zhifeng; Bian, Jiang; Cao, Wei; Lavista Ferres, Juan; Li, Chaozhuo; Liu, Tie-Yan; Xie, Xing; Zhang, Shun; Zheng, Shun; Vespignani, Alessandro; Chinazzi, Matteo; Davis, Jessica T; Mu, Kunpeng; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Xiong, Xinyue; Zheng, Andrew; Baek, Jackie; Farias, Vivek; Georgescu, Andreea; Levi, Retsef; Sinha, Deeksha; Wilde, Joshua; Perakis, Georgia; Bennouna, Mohammed Amine; Nze-Ndong, David; Singhvi, Divya; Spantidakis, Ioannis; Thayaparan, Leann; Tsiourvas, Asterios; Sarker, Arnab; Jadbabaie, Ali; Shah, Devavrat; Della Penna, Nicolas; Celi, Leo A; Sundar, Saketh; Wolfinger, Russ; Osthus, Dave; Castro, Lauren; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Michaud, Isaac; Karlen, Dean; Kinsey, Matt; Mullany, Luke C; Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin; Shin, Lauren; Tallaksen, Katharine; Wilson, Shelby; Lee, Elizabeth C; Dent, Juan; Grantz, Kyra H; Hill, Alison L; Kaminsky, Joshua; Kaminsky, Kathryn; Keegan, Lindsay T; Lauer, Stephen A; Lemaitre, Joseph C; Lessler, Justin; Meredith, Hannah R; Perez-Saez, Javier; Shah, Sam; Smith, Claire P; Truelove, Shaun A; Wills, Josh; Marshall, Maximilian; Gardner, Lauren; Nixon, Kristen; Burant, John C; Wang, Lily; Gao, Lei; Gu, Zhiling; Kim, Myungjin; Li, Xinyi; Wang, Guannan; Wang, Yueying; Yu, Shan; Reiner, Robert C; Barber, Ryan; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hay, Simon I; Lim, Steve; Murray, Chris; Pigott, David; Gurung, Heidi L; Baccam, Prasith; Stage, Steven A; Suchoski, Bradley T; Prakash, B Aditya; Adhikari, Bijaya; Cui, Jiaming; Rodríguez, Alexander; Tabassum, Anika; Xie, Jiajia; Keskinocak, Pinar; Asplund, John; Baxter, Arden; Oruc, Buse Eylul; Serban, Nicoleta; Arik, Sercan O; Dusenberry, Mike; Epshteyn, Arkady; Kanal, Elli; Le, Long T; Li, Chun-Liang; Pfister, Tomas; Sava, Dario; Sinha, Rajarishi; Tsai, Thomas; Yoder, Nate; Yoon, Jinsung; Zhang, Leyou; Abbott, Sam; Bosse, Nikos I; Funk, Sebastian; Hellewell, Joel; Meakin, Sophie R; Sherratt, Katharine; Zhou, Mingyuan; Kalantari, Rahi; Yamana, Teresa K; Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey; Li, Michael L; Bertsimas, Dimitris; Skali Lami, Omar; Soni, Saksham; Tazi Bouardi, Hamza; Ayer, Turgay; Adee, Madeline; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Dalgic, Ozden O; Ladd, Mary A; Linas, Benjamin P; Mueller, Peter; Xiao, Jade; Wang, Yuanjia; Wang, Qinxia; Xie, Shanghong; Zeng, Donglin; Green, Alden; Bien, Jacob; Brooks, Logan; Hu, Addison J; Jahja, Maria; McDonald, Daniel; Narasimhan, Balasubramanian; Politsch, Collin; Rajanala, Samyak; Rumack, Aaron; Simon, Noah; Tibshirani, Ryan J; Tibshirani, Rob; Ventura, Valerie; Wasserman, Larry; O'Dea, Eamon B; Drake, John M; Pagano, Robert; Tran, Quoc T; Ho, Lam Si Tung; Huynh, Huong; Walker, Jo W; Slayton, Rachel B; Johansson, Michael A; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Reich, Nicholas GShort-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Item Open Access Multichannel electrophysiological spike sorting via joint dictionary learning and mixture modeling(IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 2014-01-01) Carlson, David E; Vogelstein, Joshua T; Wu, Qisong; Lian, Wenzhao; Zhou, Mingyuan; Stoetzner, Colin R; Kipke, Daryl; Weber, Douglas; Dunson, David B; Carin, LawrenceWe propose a methodology for joint feature learning and clustering of multichannel extracellular electrophysiological data, across multiple recording periods for action potential detection and classification (sorting). Our methodology improves over the previous state of the art principally in four ways. First, via sharing information across channels, we can better distinguish between single-unit spikes and artifacts. Second, our proposed "focused mixture model" (FMM) deals with units appearing, disappearing, or reappearing over multiple recording days, an important consideration for any chronic experiment. Third, by jointly learning features and clusters, we improve performance over previous attempts that proceeded via a two-stage learning process. Fourth, by directly modeling spike rate, we improve the detection of sparsely firing neurons. Moreover, our Bayesian methodology seamlessly handles missing data. We present the state-of-the-art performance without requiring manually tuning hyperparameters, considering both a public dataset with partial ground truth and a new experimental dataset. © 2013 IEEE.Item Open Access Nonparametric Bayesian Dictionary Learning and Count and Mixture Modeling(2013) Zhou, MingyuanAnalyzing the ever-increasing data of unprecedented scale, dimensionality, diversity, and complexity poses considerable challenges to conventional approaches of statistical modeling. Bayesian nonparametrics constitute a promising research direction, in that such techniques can fit the data with a model that can grow with complexity to match the data. In this dissertation we consider nonparametric Bayesian modeling with completely random measures, a family of pure-jump stochastic processes with nonnegative increments. In particular, we study dictionary learning for sparse image representation using the beta process and the dependent hierarchical beta process, and we present the negative binomial process, a novel nonparametric Bayesian prior that unites the seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling. We show a wide variety of successful applications of our nonparametric Bayesian latent variable models to real problems in science and engineering, including count modeling, text analysis, image processing, compressive sensing, and computer vision.