Browsing by Department "Earth and Ocean Sciences"

This dissertation investigates the limnology of the southwestern Peruvian Amazon centered on the Madre de Dios department by examining first the geomorphology and then the ecology and biogeochemistry of the region's fluvial systems.

Madre de Dios, Peru is world renowned for its prolific biodiversity and its location within the Andes biodiversity hotspot. It is also a site of study regarding the development of the Fitzcarrald Arch and that feature's geomorphological importance as the drainage center for the headwaters of the Madeira River - the Amazon's largest tributary and as well as its role as a physical divider of genetic evolution in the Amazon. Though each of these has been studied by a variety of prominent researchers, the ability to investigate all the aspects of this unique region is hampered by the lack of a regional geomorphological map. This study aims to fill that gap by using remote sensing techniques on digital elevation models, satellite imagery and soil, geology and geoecological maps already in publication to create a geomorphological map. The resulting map contains ten distinct landform types that exemplify the dominance of fluvial processes in shaping this landscape. The river terraces of the Madre de Dios River are delineated in their entirety as well as the various dissected relief units and previously undefined units. The demarcation of the boundaries of these geomorphic units will provide invaluable assistance to the selection of field sites by future researchers as well as insights into the origin of the high biodiversity indices of this region and aid in planning for biodiversity conservation.

Secondly this study examines 25 tropical floodplain lakes along 300 km of the Manu River within the Manu National Park in the Madre de Dios department. Alternative stable state and regime shifts in shallow lakes typically have been examined in lakes in temperate and boreal regions and within anthropogenically disturbed basins but have rarely been studied in tropical or in undisturbed regions. In contrast this study focuses on a tropical region of virtually no human disturbance and evaluates the effects of hydrological variability on ecosystem structure and dynamics. Using satellite imagery a 23 yr timeline of ecological regime shifts in Amazon oxbow lakes or "cochas" is reconstructed. The study shows that almost 25% of the river's floodplain lakes experience periodic abrupt vegetative changes with an average 3.4% existing in an alternative stable state in any given year. State changes typically occur from a stable phytoplankton-dominated state to a short lived, <3 yr, floating macrophytic state and often occur independent of regional flooding. We theorize that multiple dynamics, both internal and external, drive vegetative regime shifts in the Manu but insufficient data yet exists in this remote region to identify the key processes.

To complete the investigation of tropical limnology the third study compares and contrasts the nutrient-productivity ration of floodplain and non-floodplain lakes globally and regionally. For over 70 years a strong positive relationship between sestonic chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and total phosphorus (TP) has been established with phosphorus generally viewed as the most limiting factor to productivity. Most of these studies, however, have focused on northern, temperate regions where the lakes are typically postglacial, isolated and fed by small streams. Relatively little work has been done on floodplain lakes which are semi or permanently connected to the river. This study examines the relationship between nutrients and productivity in floodplain lakes globally through an extensive literature synthesis. Values for total phosphorus, total nitrogen and chlorophyll-a were collected for 523 floodplain lakes, represented by 288 data points while 551 data points were collected for 5444 non-floodplain lakes. Analysis revealed that globally, floodplain lakes do not show any significant difference in the total phosphorus/chlorophyll-a relationship from that found in non-floodplain lakes but significant differences are seen between tropical and temperate lakes. We propose that the term `floodplain' lake should serve as purely a geographical descriptor and that it is lacking as an ecological indicator. Instead factors such as precipitation seasonality, hydrological connectivity and regional flooding regimes are better indicators of high or low productivity in floodplain lakes.

The Peruvian/Bolivian Altiplano is an important hydrologic system for paleoclimate reconstruction because it is unique in its ability to record climate variability associated with the near-continental scale South American summer monsoon (SASM), which is responsible for much of the precipitation over the Amazon basin and the southern subtropics. Over long timescales moisture on the Altiplano fluctuates in intensity due to changes in precessional insolation forcing as well as teleconnections to decadal-to-millennial scale abrupt temperature shifts in the Northern hemisphere Atlantic. These long-term changes in moisture transport to the Altiplano have been observed in multiple paleoclimate records, including drill core records and paleo-lake level records, as apparent advances and retreats of large lakes in the terminal basin occupied by the Salar de Uyuni and the Salar de Coipasa.

Presented here are the results from three studies that utilize different methods to create a refined reconstruction of paleohydrology, as well as paleoclimate, on the Altiplano. A major goal of this research is a more detailed understanding of millennial scale climate variability as it relates to insolation changes and abrupt warming and cooling in the north Atlantic. The first study discusses the creation of a paleohydrologic profile to reconstruct north-south hydrological history using previously reported lake core sediment records the northern and southern basins of the Altiplano, and a new 14 m core from the Salar de Coipasa representing the last ~45 ka. The second study uses a terrestrial hydrology model to simulate lake level changes through time given changes in precipitation and temperature. The third study uses strontium isotopic measurements of carbonates and halites in a 220-m core from the Salar de Uyuni to determine how source waters to the southern basin have changed through time.

The paleohydrologic profile in the first study is constructed using records from three major basins within the Altiplano: Lake Titicaca in the north, and Salar de Coipasa and Salar de Uyuni in the south. The new continuous sediment core from Salar de Coipasa indicates a lake that has fluctuated between deep and shallow phases for the last 45 ka. Lacking sufficient calcium carbonate, we instead take advantage of the general correlation between d18O and d13C in closed basin lakes to approximate water balance using d13C from organic carbon. This reconstruction is validated with diatom paleoecological records. The isotope measurements and diatom records indicate that from 45-36 ka Coipasa was moderately deep, consistent with paleoshoreline evidence of paleolake Minchin (46-36 ka). From 36-26 ka a shallow lake <10 m deep occupied the Coipasa basin. During the LGM (26-21 ka) the lake varied from moderate to shallow and during the Holocene (< 10 ka) the lake evolved from a shallow lake to a salt flat.

The hydrologic model in the second study was run through many scenarios including increases in precipitation, decreases in temperature, and combinations of the two. During the LGM southern Altiplano lakes fluctuated between 3,660 - 3,700 masl. Model results suggest that during this period basin wide precipitation increased up to 250 mm/yr compared to modern values dependent on a temperature decrease of 5 °C relative to modern values. To create a lake at elevation 3,760 masl consistent with the highest paleolake phase (Tauca, ~16 ka) the model requires an increase of 350 mm/yr compared to modern values dependent on a 5 °C decrease in temperature (relative to modern values). An increase in temperature alone of 2 °C above modern values causes Lake Titicaca water level to decrease ~30 m, creating a closed basin lake. Results indicate that Lake Titicaca outflow is necessary to sustain large lakes in the southern basin, providing ~40-60% of total input via the Rio Desaguadero.

Analysis of a 220 m core from the Salar de Uyuni suggests periods of alternating wet and dry phases (indicated by alternating mud and salt units respectively) at the salar. Evident in the record is a transition at ~60 ka from sediments consistent with dry conditions ("playa lakes") to sediments consistent with deep lakes ("great lakes"). It has been shown that rivers and lakes in the Bolivian and Peruvian Altiplano display a range of Sr isotopic ratios that can be connected to the lithologies of specific drainage basins. Measurements of Sr ratios of the alternating halites and carbonate sediments are used to determine when paleolakes in the Salar were supplied by flow from the northern and central basins of the Altiplano, and when they were more a product of increased precipitation in the Uyuni basin. The results from Sr isotope analysis suggest that prior to ~60 ka the primary source of Sr to the Uyuni was local runoff and direct precipitation. Following the state change from the "play lakes" phase to the "great lakes" phase Sr isotope measurements suggest a significant influence from more radiogenic waters originating in the central and northern Altiplano basins. The reason for this state change is attributed to a combination of a general increase in precipitation following the onset of the MIS-4 (~70 ka) glacial period and downcutting of the Laka Jahuira hydrologic divide, which connects Lago Poopó in the central basin to the Salar de Coipasa.

This approach of reconstructing hydrology using the combination of multiple paleolake records, hydrological modeling, and isotopic tracers allows for a better understanding of how precipitation and temperature changes affect the advance and retreat of large lakes on the Altiplano, and ultimately a more accurate understanding of how decadal-to-millennial forcings influence the climate of the subtropical Andes.

The Amazon basin is a center of deep atmospheric convection and thus acts as a major engine for global atmospheric circulation. From this basin, one fifth of the world's freshwater flux is discharged into the Atlantic and nearly two-thirds of the global rain forest resides herein. Yet despite its significance, little is known about past Amazon climate variability and the response of the forest ecosystem to climate.

Here, I attempt to reconstruct the paleoclimate history of a portion of the Amazon basin using both tree ring growth and the carbon and oxygen isotopes of tree ring cellulose from the Madre de Dios department of Southeastern Peru. Bomb 14C dating identifies annual rings in tropical species Cedrela odorata and Dipteryx micrantha. A ring width chronology spanning 189 years (1817-2006) is developed for Cedrela odorata and 5 trees of Dipteryx micrantha are utilized for isotope reconstruction. The oldest tree used in the isotope reconstructions has an error-adjusted age of about 473 years (1533-2006). Using the species Cedrela odorata, Ceiba pentandra, Hymenaea courbaril, Myroxylon balsamum, and Tabebuia serratifolia, I develop 5 tree ring chronologies using relative ring width measurements and chart the growth behaviors of over 40 trees. Ring width chronologies from tree species Cedrela odorata and Ceiba pentandra show a significant correlation with wet season precipitation (r = 0.42, and 0.37, respectively, p<0.05). The ring width chronology developed from the species Hymenaea courbaril is significantly correlated (r = 0.68, p<0.05) with January river discharge. Correlations between wet season precipitation and ring growth in Cedrela odorata are used to identify extreme wet and dry events. Nine historic droughts of the 20th century are identified in the C. odorata record. An increase in the frequency of extreme events (mean recurrence interval = 5-6 years) is observed in the 20th century and both Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing mechanisms are implicated. The chronology shows a moderate correlation with both ENSO and tropical North Atlantic SST anomalies, suggesting that both basins play a role in precipitation variability over tropical South America.

Carbon and oxygen isotopic measurements (proxies of moisture stress and precipitation amount, respectively), in tree ring cellulose from 5 Dipteryx micrantha trees are used to reconstruct an error adjusted 473 year long record of precipitation variability. Because an error correction factor is applied to the chronologies of the trees of this species, assessment of annual-scale variability is precluded. Instead lower frequency trends are examined. No long term trends are identified in the oxygen isotopic records from individual trees. The carbon isotopic records of all five individual trees track the depletion of atmospheric δ13C during the 20th century due to the anthropogenic input of fossil fuel CO₂ (The Suess effect). Relatively large variability in the oxygen isotopic records between trees suggests that site-specific and tree-specific conditions dominate this signal. Carbon isotopic records reveal a better correlation between records from multiple trees (r = 0.47, p<0.01) suggesting that a common climate signal is more robustly recorded by the δ13C of these trees. At interannual frequencies (5 year), both carbon and oxygen isotopic records correlate significantly with wet season precipitation (r = -0.50, and -0.55 respectively, p<0.05). Spectral analysis reveals dominant 8-10 year and 3-5 year periodicities in both the carbon and oxygen isotopic records of individual trees. The oldest tree examined reveals a shift from this 8-10 year periodicity during the early part of the record to a lower frequency (20-24 year) variability during the last century. The lower frequency variability identified in the records is associated with both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the decadal and multidecadal variability observed in the tropical North Atlantic.

Collectively, these data show that tropical tree ring growth and isotopic composition in the southwestern Amazon basin are precipitation dependent and these measures can be exploited to reconstruct a hydrologic history for this region.

The rising carbon dioxide emissions contributing to climate change has lead to the examination of potential ways to mitigate the environmental impact. One such method is through the geological sequestration of carbon (CCS). Although there are several different forms of geological sequestration (i.e. Saline Aquifers, Oil and Gas Reservoirs, Unminable Coal Seams) the current projects are just initiating the large scale-testing phase. The lead entry point into CCS projects is to combine the sequestration with enhanced oil recovery (EOR) due to the improved economic model as a result of the oil recovery and the pre-existing knowledge of the geological structures. The potential scope of CCS-EOR projects throughout the continental United States in terms of a systematic examination of individual reservoir storage potential has not been examined. Instead the majority of the research completed has centered on either estimating the total United States storage potential or the potential of a single specific reservoir.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between oil recovery, carbon dioxide storage and cost during CCS-EOR. The characteristics of the oil and gas reservoirs examined in this study from the Nehring Oil and Gas Database were used in the CCS-EOR model developed by Sean McCoy to estimate the lifting and storage costs of the different reservoirs throughout the continental United States. This allows for an examination of both technical and financial viability of CCS-EOR as an intermediate step for future CCS projects in other geological formations.

One option for mitigating climate change is to store industrial CO2 emissions in geologic reservoirs as part of a process known as carbon capture and storage (CCS). There is general consensus that large-scale deployment of CCS would best be initiated by combining geologic sequestration with enhanced oil recovery (EOR), which can use CO2 to improve production from declining oil fields. Revenues from the produced oil could help offset the current high costs of CCS.

The cumulative potential of CCS-EOR in the continental U.S. has been evaluated in terms of both CO2 storage capacity and additional oil production. This thesis examines the same potential, but on a reservoir-by-reservoir basis. Reservoir properties from the Nehring Oil and Gas Database are used as inputs to a CCS-EOR model developed by McCoy (YR) to estimate the storage capacity, oil production and CCS-EOR costs for over 10,000 oil reservoirs located throughout the continental United States.

We find that 86% of the reservoirs could store ≤1 y or CO2 emissions from a single 500 MW coal-fired power plant (i.e., 3 Mtons CO2). Less than 1% of the reservoirs, on the other hand, appear capable of storing ≥30 y of CO2 emissions from a 500 MW plan. But these larger reservoirs are also estimated to contain 48% of the predicted additional oil that could be produced through CCS-EOR. The McCoy model also predicts that the reservoirs will on average produce 4.5 bbl of oil for each ton of sequestered CO2, a ratio known as the utilization factor. This utilization factor is 1.5 times higher that arrived at by the U.S. Department of Energy, and leads to a cumulative production of oil for all the reservoirs examined of ~183 billion barrels along with a cumulative storage capacity of 41 Mtons CO2. This is equivalent to 26.5 y of current oil consumption by the nation, and 8.5 y of current coal plant emissions.

Arsenic (As) exposure via groundwater consumption is a global health problem affecting millions. Monitoring exposure is a key step in understanding and predicating future health outcomes. This thesis explores the relationships between arsenic concentrations in toenails and arsenic in water. Three case studies were investigated, with residents from: North Carolina, USA (n=103); the Rift Valley, Ethiopia (n=60); and the Mekong Delta, Vietnam (n=65). Arsenic concentrations above the WHO's recommended 10ppb limit were found in groundwater from the three research sites.

Arsenic in toenails was analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS).

In the Rift Valley of Ethiopia, 53% of the tested drinking wells (n=34) had As above the WHO's limit. Arsenic concentrations in toenails (n=60) were significantly correlated to As concentrations in groundwater (r=0.72; p<0.001), reflecting the direct exposure of rural communities to As in well water, which is their principle water source. Male minors (<18 years old) were found to have greater nail-As concentrations compared with adults consuming equal amounts of As (p<0.05). Estimated As dose specifically from drinking water sources was also associated with nail concentrations (p<0.01).

In the Mekong Delta of Vietnam (Dong Thap Province), 36 out of the 68 tested wells had As content above the WHO's recommended limit of 10ppb, with levels as high as 981 ppb. Arsenic contents in nails collected from local residents (n=62) were significantly correlated to As in drinking water (r=0.49, p<0.001). Demographic and survey data show that the ratio of As in nail to As in water varies among residents that reflects differential As accumulation in the exposed population. The data show that water filtration and diet, particularly increased consumption of animal protein and dairy and reduced consumption of seafood, were associated with lower ratios of As in nail to As in water and thus could play important roles in mitigating As exposure.

Sixty-one wells were tested from Union County, North Carolina, with 15 out of 61 wells exceeded the WHO's 10 ppb limit. Arsenic values ranged from below the limit of detection (0.07) to 130ppb, with a mean of 11ppb (median=1.5ppb). Nails were collected from county residents (n=103) and were statistically correlated with As-water concentrations (r=0.48, p<0.001).

Integration of the data from the three cases studies across different populations and ethnicities show high correlation between As concentrations in groundwater and As in nails in all the three locations (r(Union County)= 0.48, p<0.001; r(Ethiopia)=0.72 p<0.001; r(Vietnam)=0.49, p<0.001). For As-nail to As-water pairs in which As in water was above 1ppb, these three locations are statistically indistinguishable from one another (r=0.62, p<0.001, n=176). These results support the hypothesis that nails can be used as a biomarker of exposure regardless of geographic or ethnic differences in populations considered. Nutrition (meat, seafood, and milk consumption) rather than gender, ethnicity, or dose is suggested to be the major confounding issue affecting the magnitude of As exposure in the human body.

Residential energy consumption represents a large share of total end use energy and shows strong correlation with monthly cooling and heating degree days. This study focuses on quantifying temporal change in the relationship between monthly degree days and monthly U.S. residential use of electricity and natural gas for each of the 48 contiguous states from 1990 to 2017. We introduce a single degree day predicator to characterize the non-linear relationship between degree-day and state-level electricity and natural gas use. By looking at trends in three DD-energy use coordinates and curvature from single quadratic fits on a year-by-year and state-by-state basis, we confirm the non-linear relationship between DD and residential energy use and reveal processes that might influence the relationship. We find that residential electricity energy use has become more sensitive to seasonal fluctuations in temperature in most states. While the lowest electricity use per year has risen, natural gas use has fallen since 1990 in most states. We further group the states into 17 classes for electricity use and 21 classes for natural gas use based on combinations of temporal trends in quadratic curve variables. These large groupings for electricity have shown a similar spatial distribution as that of the climate regions defined by the U.S. Department of Energy, reaffirming temperature and humidity as influential factors in the climate-energy relationship. We also compare our results with the household and end uses information from U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Residential Energy Consumption (REC) Surveys and recognize electricity as a growing heating source in all U.S. regions. We further address economic development, energy efficiency of end uses, and building codes as potential trends that affect the relationship between degree day and residential energy use at national, regional and state levels.

Russia's war in Ukraine in 2022 has put a new spotlight on Europe's overall reliance on Russian energy resources. As the subsequent international sanctions and Russia's weaponization of energy have caused an energy crisis in Europe, we attempt to characterize Europe's reliance on Russian gas from a new standpoint. In this study, we used energy trade data from the IEA and an energy balance model to study whether European countries are dependent on Russian gas through imports from third countries. We discovered that this indirect reliance is not represented in IEA's reports, and that for certain countries, accounting for indirect imports can sometimes double its overall reliance on Russian gas, while other countries, who do not import any gas from Russia directly, can be reliant for over 40 % of their gas supply on indirect Russian imports. Accounting for these values should be of strategic importance to countries prioritizing their energy security, as well as those that are embarking on major energy transition projects.

Coherent, large-scale shapes and patterns are evident in many landscapes, and evolve according to climate and hydrological forces. For large-scale, sandy coastlines, these shapes depend on wave climate forcing. The wave climate is influenced by storm patterns, which are expected to change with the warming climate, and the associated changes in coastline shape are likely to increase rates of shoreline change in many places. Humans have historically responded to coastline change by manipulating various coastal processes, consequently affecting long-term, large-scale coastline shape change. Especially in the context of changing climate forcing and increasing human presence on the coast, the interaction of the human and climate-driven components of large-scale coastline evolution are becoming increasingly intertwined.

This dissertation explores how climate shapes coastlines, and how the effects of humans altering the landscape interact with the effects of a changing climate. Because the coastline is a spatially extended, nonlinear system, I use a simple numerical modeling approach to gain a basic theoretical understanding of its dynamics, incorporating simplified representations of the human components of coastline change in a previously developed model for the physical system.

Chapter 1 addresses how local shoreline stabilization affects the large scale morphology of a cuspate-cape type of coastline, and associated large-scale patterns of shoreline change, in the context of changing wave climate, comparing two fundamentally different approaches to shoreline stabilization: beach nourishment (in which sediment is added to a coastline at a long-term rate that counteracts the background erosion), and hard structures (including seawalls and groynes). The results show that although both approaches have surprisingly long-range effects with spatially heterogeneous distributions, the pattern of shoreline changes attributable to a single local stabilization effort contrast greatly, with nourishment producing less erosion when the stabilization-related shoreline change is summed alongshore.

Chapter 2 presents new basic understanding of the dynamics that produce a contrasting coastline type: convex headland-spit systems. Results show that the coastline shapes and spatially-uniform erosion rates emerge from two way influences between the headland and spit components, and how these interactions are mediated by wave climate, and the alongshore scale of the system. Chapter 2 also shows that one type of wave-climate change (altering the proportion of `high-angle' waves) leads to changes in coastline shape, while another type (altering wave-climate asymmetry) tends to reorient a coastline while preserving its shape.

Chapter 3 builds on chapter 2, by adding the effects of human shoreline stabilization along such a convex coastline. Results show that in the context of increasing costs for stabilization, abandonment of shoreline stabilization at one location triggers a cascade of abandonments and associated coastline-shape changes, and that both the qualitative spatial patterns and alongshore speed of the propagating cascades depends on the relationship between patterns of economic heterogeneity and the asymmetry of the wave-climate change--although alterations to the proportion of high-angle waves in the climate only affects the time scales for coupled morphologic/economic cascades.

The rise of the twenty-first century has seen the further increase in the industrialization of Earth’s resources, as society aims to meet the needs of a growing population while still protecting our environmental and natural resources. The advent of the industrial bioeconomy – which encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into food, feed, and bio-based products – is seen as an important step in transition towards sustainable development and away from fossil fuels. One sector of the industrial bioeconomy which is rapidly being expanded is the use of biobased feedstocks in electricity production as an alternative to coal, especially in the European Union.

As bioeconomy policies and objectives increasingly appear on political agendas, there is a growing need to quantify the impacts of transitioning from fossil fuel-based feedstocks to renewable biological feedstocks. Specifically, there is a growing need to conduct a systems analysis and potential risks of increasing the industrial bioeconomy, given that the flows within it are inextricably linked. Furthermore, greater analysis is needed into the consequences of shifting from fossil fuels to renewable feedstocks, in part through the use of life cycle assessment modeling to analyze impacts along the entire value chain.

To assess the emerging nature of the industrial bioeconomy, three objectives are addressed: (1) quantify the global industrial bioeconomy, linking the use of primary resources with the ultimate end product; (2) quantify the impacts of the expaning wood pellet energy export market of the Southeastern United States; (3) conduct a comparative life cycle assessment, incorporating the use of dynamic life cycle assessment, of replacing coal-fired electricity generation in the United Kingdom with wood pellets that are produced in the Southeastern United States.

To quantify the emergent industrial bioeconomy, an empirical analysis was undertaken. Existing databases from multiple domestic and international agencies was aggregated and analyzed in Microsoft Excel to produce a harmonized dataset of the bioeconomy. First-person interviews, existing academic literature, and industry reports were then utilized to delineate the various intermediate and end use flows within the bioeconomy. The results indicate that within a decade, the industrial use of agriculture has risen ten percent, given increases in the production of bioenergy and bioproducts. The underlying resources supporting the emergent bioeconomy (i.e., land, water, and fertilizer use) were also quantified and included in the database.

Following the quantification of the existing bioeconomy, an in-depth analysis of the bioenergy sector was conducted. Specifically, the focus was on quantifying the impacts of the emergent wood pellet export sector that has rapidly developed in recent years in the Southeastern United States. A cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment was conducted in order to quantify supply chain impacts from two wood pellet production scenarios: roundwood and sawmill residues. For reach of the nine impact categories assessed, wood pellet production from sawmill residues resulted in higher values, ranging from 10-31% higher.

The analysis of the wood pellet sector was then expanded to include the full life cycle (i.e., cradle-to-grave). In doing to, the combustion of biogenic carbon and the subsequent timing of emissions were assessed by incorporating dynamic life cycle assessment modeling. Assuming immediate carbon neutrality of the biomass, the results indicated an 86% reduction in global warming potential when utilizing wood pellets as compared to coal for electricity production in the United Kingdom. When incorporating the timing of emissions, wood pellets equated to a 75% or 96% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, depending upon whether the forestry feedstock was considered to be harvested or planted in year one, respectively.

Finally, a policy analysis of renewable energy in the United States was conducted. Existing coal-fired power plants in the Southeastern United States were assessed in terms of incorporating the co-firing of wood pellets. Co-firing wood pellets with coal in existing Southeastern United States power stations would result in a nine percent reduction in global warming potential.

Coastal ecosystems provide a wide range of services including protecting the mainland from the destructive effects of storms, nutrient cycling, water filtration, nurseries for fish and crustaceans, and carbon sequestration. These zones are threatened by human impacts and climate change through more frequent intense storms and sea level rise with a projected increase of up to 16 mm/yr for the last two decades of the 21st century. However, it is not fully understood what mechanisms control the formation and degradation of these landforms, and determine their resilience to environmental change. In this work, I highlight the role of various physical characteristics and environmental parameters that contribute to the formation and stability of coastal environments.

First, I develop and use remote sensing analyses to quantitatively characterize coastal dune eco-topographic patterns by simultaneously identifying the spatial distribution of topographic elevation and vegetation biomass in order to understand the coupled dynamics of vegetation and coastal dunes. LiDAR-derived leaf area index and hyperspectral-derived normalized difference vegetation index patterns yield vegetation distributions at the whole-system scale which are in agreement with each other and with field observations. LiDAR-derived concurrent quantifications of biomass and topography show that plants more favorably develop on the landward side of the foredune crest and that the foredune crestline marks the position of an ecotone, which is interpreted as the result of a sheltering effect sharply changing local environmental conditions. The findings reveal that the position of the foredune crestline is a chief ecomorphodynamic feature resulting from the two-way interaction between vegetation and topography.

Next, to shed light on the vertical depositional dynamics of salt marshes in response to sea level rise, I investigate the hypothesis that competing effects between biomass production and aeration/decomposition determine an approximately spatially constant contribution of soil organic matter (SOM) to total accretion. I use concurrent observations of SOM and decomposition rates from marshes in North Carolina. The results are coherent with the notion that SOM does not significantly vary in space and suggest that this may be the result of an at least partial compensation of opposing trends in biomass productivity and decomposed organic matter. The analyses show that deeper soil layers are characterized by lower decomposition rates and higher stabilization factors than shallower layers, likely because of differences in inundation duration. However, overall, decomposition processes are sufficiently rapid that the labile material in the fresh biomass is completely decomposed before it can be buried and stabilized. The findings point to the importance of the fraction of initially refractory material and of the stabilization processes in determining the final distribution of SOM within the soil column.

Finally, I develop a process-based model to evaluate the relative role of watershed, estuarine, and oceanic controls on salt marsh depositional/erosional dynamics and define how these factors interact to determine salt marsh resilience to environmental change at the estuary scale. The results show that under some circumstances, vertical depositional dynamics can lead to transitions between salt marsh and tidal flat equilibrium states that occur much more rapidly than marsh/tidal flat boundary erosion or accretion could. Additionally, the analyses reveal that river inputs affect the existence and extent of marsh/tidal flat equilibria by both modulating exchanges with the ocean (by partially “filling” the basin) and by providing suspended sediment.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is characterized as a northward upper limb that carries warm near-surface waters from southern latitudes to the subpolar North Atlantic, and a southward lower limb that transports cold deep waters back to the southern latitudes. Due to its special role in distributing heat, carbon and water masses globally, AMOC as an essential part in the climate system, has long been a strong focus within the ocean community. For decades, AMOC variability has been attributed to changes in deep water production at high latitudes in the North Atlantic through a geostrophic response in the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), the assumed major export pathway of the deep waters. However, recent Lagrangian studies have revealed the importance of eddy-driven interior pathways, challenging the traditional DWBC-dominated spreading pattern, hence the linkage between deep water formation and AMOC. Under the new spreading scheme of the deep waters, this dissertation provides an extended Lagrangian analysis on the spreading pathways of two major deep waters, Labrador Sea Water (LSW) and Iceland Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW), and re-examines the relationships among deep water production, deep water export and the strength of AMOC.

A Lagrangian simulation of newly-formed LSW in an ocean/sea ice model (1/4°) reveals strong recirculation of the water mass in the subpolar gyre, with a small portion exported to the subtropical gyre through an advective-diffusive pathway. Furthermore, no significant correlation between LSW production and its Lagrangian export to the subtropical gyre is found on interannual to decadal time scales, suggesting a negligible or at best modest impact of LSW production on the subtropical AMOC.

In a combined Lagrangian and Eulerian frame, a first comprehensive description of ISOW spreading branches in the eastern North Atlantic is presented with observational data and output from an eddy-resolving ocean model. The major export pathway for ISOW is shown to be the southward branch into the Western European Basin, instead of the branch through the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone, the traditional DWBC pathway. Interestingly, these two branches show compensating relationships in the model, a result assumed to reflect these pathways’ interactions with the North Atlantic Current in magnitude and/or position shift.

Finally, with output from ocean circulation models and an ocean reanalysis dataset, the meridional connection of the deep water transport anomalies and their relationships with AMOC are assessed. It is shown that deep water transport anomalies in the subpolar gyre do not propagate coherently to the subtropical gyre in general, particularly so for Upper North Atlantic Deep Water (UNADW, containing LSW). Furthermore, while UNADW and Lower North Atlantic Deep Water (LNADW, containing overflow waters) transports in the subpolar gyre are linked to local AMOC strength on interannual to decadal time scales, in the subtropical gyre only LNADW transport variability shows this linkage, the latter results consistent with observations. These analyses suggest a dominance of gyre-specific, rather than basin-wide, mechanisms for water mass transport variability. Thus, latitudinal coherence in AMOC is likely unrelated to continuity in water mass transport anomalies. An exception to this generalization is possible with strong LNADW transport events.

Taken together, this dissertation emphasizes the importance of interior pathways to the export of deep waters from the subpolar to the subtropical gyre. It also reveals a tenuous linkage between deep water production and AMOC strength at subtropical latitudes on interannual to decadal time scales.

Marine productivity is limited by nitrogen in a large portion of the global ocean. Marine nitrogen fixation, catalyzed by a select group of microorganisms called diazotrophs, converts nitrogen gas (N2) into bioavailable nitrogen that can support the growth of marine phytoplankton. By supplying new nitrogen to marine ecosystems, marine N2 fixation affects marine primary production, the uptake of carbon dioxide and ultimately the global climate. However, the environmental controls on N2 fixation and the physiologies of diverse diazotrophs remain elusive, in great part due to the limited number of observations. As part of this dissertation, I applied a variety of approaches including statistical modeling, high-resolution field measurements, and gene sequencing to characterize the biogeography of marine diazotrophy.

The first approach was to model marine N2 fixation and diazotrophs using machine learning methods. To that end, I conducted meta-analyses to update the global datasets of N2 fixation and diazotrophs. The number of observations in these updated datasets are ~80% and over 100% larger than previous datasets, respectively. Simple correlation analyses between N2 fixation rates and different environmental factors failed to identify a single factor explaining marine N2 fixation at a global scale. In contrast, individual diazotrophic phylotypes showed distinct relations to environmental properties. Machine learning methods including random forest (RF) and support vector regression (SVR) simulated the observed N2 fixation and diazotrophs fairly well by accounting for nonlinearities among multiple environmental factors. The estimated global N2 fixation fluxes from the two statistical models were within the range of other studies. However, the machine learning estimates and other simulations in some cases showed substantial disagreement in both the magnitude and distribution of N2 fixation and diazotrophs, especially in high latitudes and the eastern equatorial Pacific, where observations are scarce. The large uncertainties in simulated N2 fixation and diazotrophs emphasized the need for a better understanding of the factors regulating N2 fixation and the physiology of diazotrophs.

Achieving this goal can be labor-intensive and difficult with current techniques, which are based on discrete sampling and long incubation time. To overcome some of the drawbacks of traditional methods, our laboratory developed a method for high-frequency underway N2 fixation measurements. This method provides better coverage of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in N2 fixation. I deployed this method over large swaths of the western North Atlantic Ocean in the summers of 2015, 2016, and 2017, covering over 10,000 km cruise tracks. This extensive survey identified new hotspots of N2 fixation in the coastal waters of the mid-Atlantic Bight. By coupling high-resolution N2 fixation observations with underway estimates of net community production (NCP) derived from O2/Ar measurements, I revealed the heterogeneous contribution of N2 fixation to NCP and to the carbon cycle, with a surprisingly large contribution in coastal waters.

In addition to the spatial distribution of N2 fixation, I also characterized types of diazotrophs responsible for N2 fixation and how they responded to varying environmental conditions. By measuring diazotrophic diversity, abundance and activity at high-resolution using newly developed underway sampling and sensing techniques, I captured a shift between diazotrophs from Trichodesmium to UCYN-A from oligotrophic warm (25-29°C) subtropical Sargasso Sea to the relatively nutrient-enriched cold (13-24°C) eastern American coastal waters. Meanwhile, N2 fixation rates were significantly enhanced when phosphorus and Fe availabilities, and chlorophyll-a concentration increased across the Gulf Stream into the subpolar and coastal waters. Phosphorus limitation was confirmed with changes in the expression of phosphorus uptake genes in Trichodesmium and UCYN-A. While temperature was the major factor controlling the diazotrophic community, phosphorous was dominantly driving the changes of N2 fixation rates in the western North Atlantic.

Overall, this dissertation significantly improves our understanding of the distribution of N2 fixation and diazotrophs and their environmental controls in the western North Atlantic and in the global ocean.

Previously, we usually analyze climate responses to all the climate drivers combined. However, the climate responses to individual climate drivers are far from well-known, as it is nearly impossible to separate the climate responses to individual climate drivers from the pure observational records. In this dissertation, I analyzed the responses of effective radiative forcing (ERF), precipitation and clouds to five individual climate drivers by using the model output from the Precipitation and Driver Response Model Inter-comparison Project (PDRMIP, consisting of five core experiments: CO2x2, CH4x3, Solar+2%, BCx10, and SO4x5). Firstly, I compared the ERF values estimated by six different methods and demonstrated that the values estimated using fixed sea-surface temperature and linear regression methods are fairly consistent for most climate drivers. For each individual driver, multi-model mean ERF values vary by 10-50% with different methods, and this difference may reach 70-100% for BC. Then, I analyzed the dynamical responses of precipitation in Mediterranean to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) and aerosols and found that precipitation in Mediterranean is more sensitive to BC forcing. When scaled to historical forcing level, WMGHG contributed roughly two-thirds to the Mediterranean drying during the past century and BC aerosol contributed the remaining one-third by causing a northward shift of the jet streams and storm tracks. Lastly, I explored the responses of shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) to CO2 and the two aerosol species and found that CO2 causes positive SWCRE changes over most of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer, and BC causes similar positive responses over North America, Europe and East China but negative SWCRE over India and tropical Africa. When normalized by global ERF, the change of SWCRE from BC forcing is roughly 3-5 times larger than that from CO2. SWCRE change is mainly due to cloud cover changes resulting from the changes in relative humidity, and to a lesser extent, changes in circulation and stability. The SWCRE response to sulfate aerosols, however, is negligible compared to that from CO2 and BC, because the radiation scattered by clouds under all-sky conditions will also be scattered by aerosols under clear-sky conditions. As SW is in effect only during daytime, positive (negative) SWCRE could amplify (dampen) daily maximum temperature (Tmax). Using a multi-linear regression model, I found that Tmax increases by 0.15 K and 0.13 K given unit increase in local SWCRE under the CO2 and BC experiments, respectively. When domain-averaged, SWCRE changes contributed to summer mean Tmax changes by 10-30% under CO2 forcing and by 30-50% under BC forcing, varying by regions, which can have important implications extreme climatic events and socio-economic activities.

The focus of this work is to use geologic and geophysical methods to better understand the faults and fracture systems at Puna, in southeastern Hawaii, and southern Montserrat, in the Lesser Antilles. The particular interest is understanding and locating the deep fracture networks that are necessary for fluid circulation in hydrothermal systems. The dissertation first presents a study in which identification of large scale faulting places Montserrat into a tectonic context. Then follow studies of Puna and Montserrat that focus on faults and fractures of the deep hydrothermal systems.

The first chapter consists of the results of the SEA-CALIPSO experiment seismic reflection data, recorded on a 48 channel streamer with the active source as a 2600 in3 airgun. This chapter discusses volcaniclastic debris fans off the east coast of Montserrat and faults off the west coast. The work places Montserrat in a transtensional environment (influenced by oblique subduction) as well as in a complex local stress regime. One conclusion is that the stress regime is inconsistent with the larger arc due to the influence of local magmatism and stress.

The second chapter is a seismic study of the Puna hydrothermal system (PHS) along the Kilauea Lower East Rift Zone. The PHS occurs at a left step in the rift, where a fracture network has been formed between fault segments. It is a productive geothermal field, extracting steam and reinjecting cooled, condensed fluids. A network of eight borehole seismometers recorded >6000 earthquakes. Most of the earthquakes are very small (< M.2), and shallow (1-3 km depth), likely the result of hydrothermal fluid reinjection. Deeper earthquakes occur along the rift as well as along the south-dipping fault plane that originates from the rift zone.

Seismic methods applied to the PHS data set, after the initial recording, picking, and locating earthquakes, include a tomographic inversion of the P-wave first arrival data. This model indicates a high seismic velocity under the field that is thought to be an intrusion and the heat source of the hydrothermal system. A shear wave splitting study suggested the PHS fracture system is largely oriented rift-parallel with some orthogonal fractures. Shear wave splitting data also were used in a tomographic inversion for fracture density. The fracture density is high in the PHS, which indicates high permeability and potential for extensive fluid circulation. This has been confirmed by high fluid flow and energy generation. The high fracture density is consistent with the interpretation of a transfer zone between the rift segments where a fracture mesh would be expected. In Puna the transfer zone is a relay ramp.

The results from the PHS are used as an example to examine the proposed hydrothermal system at St. George's Hill, Montserrat. In southern Montserrat, hot springs and fumaroles suggest a deep hydrothermal system heated by local magmatism. A magnetotelluric study obtained resistivity data that suggest focused alteration under southeastern Montserrat that is likely to be along fault segments. Several faults intersect under SGH, making it the probable center of the hydrothermal system. At Puna, and also Krafla, Iceland, where faults interact is an area of increased permeability, acting as a model to be applied to southern Montserrat. The conclusion is that in both Puna and Montserrat large faults interact to produce local areas of stress transfer that lead to fracturing and permeable networks; these networks allow for high-temperature hydrothermal circulation.

The geochemical evolution of basaltic magmas, in a variety of settings, has been the subject of countless studies. In some instances, basaltic magmas evolve to form economic transition and precious metal ore bodies. The metals extracted from these ore bodies are of critical importance to a wide variety of industries, such as automotive manufacturing. On a larger scale, basaltic magmas evolve to form the oceanic crust, the interface between the Earth’s mantle and the oceans. These are just two examples of how basaltic magmas are entwined with life on Earth and together represent the focus of this dissertation.

The second chapter of this dissertation uses detailed petrography to characterize the late-stage evolution of the Eocene Skaergaard Intrusion, Greenland. Significantly, this study identifies textural and chemical evidence that suggests that late hydrothermal fluids modified the Skaergaard transition (copper) and precious metal (silver, gold, platinum) budget.

The third chapter examines the major and trace element concentrations, as well as the 87Sr/86Sr ratios, for a suite of basaltic lavas dredged from the Cocos-Nazca Spreading Center, the Dietz Volcanic Ridge, and the East Pacific Rise. Prior to this study, this region of the Pacific basin was sparsely sampled. Notably, this study determines that lavas from the Cocos-Nazca Spreading Center are chemically depleted and are likely sourced from mantle that differs from that characteristic of normal mid-ocean ridge basalt.

Finally, the fourth chapter examines the size distribution, morphology, and chemical composition of plagioclase in plagioclase phyric lavas from the Cocos-Nazca Spreading Center. A variety of plagioclase morphologies, textures, and chemical compositions are reported. Importantly, this study demonstrates that combining size distribution analysis with textural and compositional information can provide nuanced information about the processes occurring beneath mid-ocean ridges.

Complex feedbacks dominate landscape dynamics over large spatial scales (10s – 100s km) and over the long-term (10s – 100s yrs). These interactions and feedbacks are particularly strong at land-water boundaries, such as coastlines, marshes, and rivers. Water, although necessary for life and agriculture, threatens humans and infrastructure during natural disasters (e.g., floods, hurricanes) and through sea-level rise. The goal of this dissertation is to better understand landscape morphodynamics in these settings, and in some cases, to investigate how humans have influenced these landscapes (e.g., through climate or land-use change). In this work, I use innovative numerical models to study the larger-scale emergent interactions and most critical variables of these systems, allowing me to clarify the most important feedbacks and explore large space and time scales.

Chapter 1 focuses on understanding the shoreline dynamics of pocket (embayed) beaches, which are positioned between rocky headlands and adorn about half the world’s coastlines. Previous work suggested that seasonality or oscillations in climate indices control erosion and accretion along these shorelines; however, using the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM), I find that patterns of shoreline change can be found without systematic shifts in wave forcings. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), I identify two main modes of sediment transport dynamics: a shoreline rotation mode, which had been previously studied, and a shoreline “breathing” mode, which is newly discovered. Using wavelet analysis of the PCA mode time series, I find characteristic time scales of these modes, which emerge from internal system dynamics (rather than changes in the wave forcing; e.g., seasonality). To confirm the breathing mode’s existence, I retroactively identified this mode in observations of pocket beach shoreline change from different parts of the world. Characterization of these modes, as well as their timescales, better informs risk assessment and coastal management decisions along thinning shorelines, especially as climate change affects storminess and wave energy variations across the world.

Chapter 2 moves slightly inland to examine how coastal marshes, which provide numerous ecosystem services and are an important carbon sink, respond to climate change and anthropogenic influences. Specifically, I focus on how increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 affect marsh resilience to increased rates of sea-level rise relative to inorganic sediment availability and elevated nitrogen levels. Using a meta-analysis of the available literature for marsh plant biomass response to elevated levels of CO2 and nitrogen, I incorporated these effects into a coupled model of marsh vegetation and morphodynamics. Although nitrogen’s effect on biomass and marsh accretion rates is less clear, elevated CO2 causes a fertilization effect, increasing plant biomass, which enhances marsh accretion rates (through increased rates of both in- organic and organic sedimentation). Findings from the model experiments suggest that the CO2 fertilization effect significantly increases marsh resilience to sea-level rise; however, reduced inorganic sediment supply (e.g., through land-use change or damming) still remains a serious threat to marsh survival).

Almost half a billion people live on or near river deltas, which are flat, fertile landscapes that have long been ideal for human settlement, but are increasingly vulnerable to flooding. These landscapes are formed by the repeated stacking of sedimentary lobes, the location and size of which are formed by river channel avulsions, which occur when the river changes course relatively rapidly. Despite the importance of avulsions to delta morphodynamics, we do not fully understand their dynamics(specifically, avulsion location and timing). In order to investigate the relative influence of rivers and waves on delta morphology and avulsion processes, I develop the River Avulsion and Floodplain Evolution Model (RAFEM) and couple it to CEM to create a new morphodynamic river delta model.

In Chapter 3, I use the new coupled fluvial-coastal model to examine the upstream location of avulsions over a range of sea-level rise rates and wave energies. In model experiments, the longitudinal river profile adjusts as the river progrades, causing a preferential avulsion location where the river aggradation relative to the floodplain topography is most rapid. This avulsion length scale is a function of the amount of in-channel sedimentation required to trigger an avulsion, where a larger amount of aggradation required necessitates a greater amount of pre-avulsion progradation. If an avulsion is triggered once aggradation reaches half bankfull channel depth, the preferential length scale is around a backwater length, which scales well with laboratory and field observations.

In Chapter 4, I explore how a wide range sea-level rise rates and wave climates affect both delta morphology and avulsion dynamics with the coupled model. Surprisingly, I find that increasing sea-level rise rates do not always accelerate avulsions. In river-dominated deltas, avulsion time scales tend not to decrease, as upslope river mouth transgression counteracts base-level driven aggradation. I also find that both the sign and magnitude of the wave climate diffusivity affects both avulsion dynamics and large-scale delta morphology. My findings highlight not only important differences between river and wave-dominated deltas, but also prototypical deltas and those created in the lab. Because the wave climate, sea-level rise rate, and amount of in-channel aggradation required to trigger an avulsion all affect rates of autogenic variability operating within the delta, each of these forcings has important implication for avulsion dynamics and stratigraphic interpretation of paleo-deltaic deposits.

Coal fired power plants are ubiquitous in the United States and most developed countries around the world, providing affordable electricity to consumers. In the US, approximately six hundred power plants generate 136 million tons of Coal Combustion Residuals (CCRs) annually, encompassing fly ash, bottom ash, and flue gas desulfurization materials. The range and blends of CCRs varies substantially across coal-fired plants and depends on a unique set of circumstances for each plant and coal source. Current U.S. regulations mandate the installation of advanced capture technologies to reduce atmospheric pollution, but do not address the transfer and storage, or the potential impacts to water resources. Thus improved air quality is traded for significant enrichments of contaminants in the solid waste and effluent discharged from power plants.

This work examines the geochemical and isotopic characteristics of CCRs, as well as potential environmental impacts from CCRs. This investigation looks at several different aspects of CCR and environmental interactions from 1) the immediate impacts of the 2008 TVA coal ash spill in Kingston, TN, 2) the long-term (18-month) exposure of the spilled ash in the Emory and Clinch rivers, 3) impacts on waterways in North Carolina that receive CCR effluent from coal fired power plants, and 4) examination of boron and strontium isotopes of CCRs from leaching experiments and their application as tracers in the environment of the TVA spill and NC waterways. These investigations have illuminated several conclusions, including contact of surface water with CCRs leach high concentrations of leachable CCR contaminants, such as As, Se, B, Sr, Mo, and V in the surface waters; the dilution effect is critical in determining the concentration of contaminants from the CCRs in surface water (both at the spill and in waterways receiving CCR effluent); recycling of trace elements (such as As) through adsorption/desorption can impact water quality; and elevated boron and strontium concentrations, in addition to their isotopes, can trace CCR effluent in the environment. Combining the geochemical behavior and isotopic characteristics provides a novel tool for the identification CCR effluents in the environment.

The hematite-stained grain (HSG) proxy method, commonly employed by the late G.C. Bond to detect the "1500-year cycle" in North Atlantic climate, is reproduced and verified for the first time. The exact method is compiled from various sources and presented in Chapter 1. In Chapter 2, an HSG record from classic North Atlantic DSDP Site 609 is reconsidered. While the Site 609 HSG record was initially interpreted to exhibit 1500-year variability, it did not actually contain spectral power at the 1500-year band. The chronology for Site 609 is based on radicarbon dates to 26 ka, beyond which the sea surface temperature record is matched to the record of air temperature variations over Greenland from the GISP2 ice core. However, it is now evident that the lack of spectral power at the primary period of the observed fluctuation was likely due to the GISP2 chronology, which has been subsequently shown to become progressively deficient over the course of the last glaciation. Updating the Site 609 chronology to the latest chronology for the virtually complete NGRIP Greenland ice core, which is based on layer counting to 60 ka, results in 99% significant spectral power at a 1/1415 year frequency.

In Chapter 3, the classic Site 609 lithic records are extended to the previous two glaciations, glacial Stages 6 and 8, at IODP Site U1308 (reoccupied Site 609). The "1500-year cycle" is not detected within Stage 6, perhaps indicating that D-O Events were not manifest in a similar fashion, if at all. Heinrich Event are also not detected, indicating relative stability of the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet during Stage 6. As a result, individual North Atlantic sites recorded lower-amplitude, asynchronous hydrographic changes. The SST proxy record at Site U1308 during Stage 6 primarily records intermediate temperatures. The subtle SST changes detected likely indicate local as opposed to basin-scale changes related to the migration of oceanic frontal boundaries. During Stage 6, benthic

δ13C changes are of lower amplitude than Stages 2 - 4 and correspond more strongly to variations in SST than to ice rafting, indicating that ice-rafting events did not as strongly influence NADW formation.

During Stage 8, however, well-structured cycles in HSG with a mean event spacing of ~ 1500 ± 500 years are detected, potentially indicating a greater likelihood of D-O Events during Stage 8. In addition, three Heinrich Events, defined by a large abundance of DC, occurred during MIS 8, indicating surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet Ice Sheet. Stage 8 is therefore more analogous to that of the last glaciation than Stage 6.

Chapter 4 explores the link between HSG and cosmogenic nuclide production, which are highly coherent at a frequency of 1/950 years. A 950-year period is present in the HSG records of the last three glaciations. While a 950- year oscillation may be the product of solar forcing, due to uncertainty in paleomagnetic reconstructions and in the Site U1308 chronology, the null hypothesis that the HSG proxy does not reflect variable solar irradiance cannot be unequivocally refuted. Solar forcing does however provide an explanation for climate variability in the 950-year band during the last three glaciations.

This dissertation is a collection of studies at the intersection of global energy systems and international trade. In the first study (Chapter 2), we estimate the sensitivities of primary energy exports to disruptions through maritime chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is the conduit between the Persian Gulf region and the rest of the world. The countries in this region are rich in crude oil resources and are major energy exporters. In this study, we apply a two-stage least-squares (2SLS) approach to estimate the impacts of a soft restriction in the Strait of Hormuz to energy exports from the region on a fuel-by-fuel, country-by-country basis. The soft restriction that we evaluate here is maritime piracy, a low-grade but chronic hazard for maritime shipping. Our results suggest that maritime piracy is associated with a 7.5-vessel reduction through the Strait of Hormuz two years after the event occurred. We also find that energy exports from the Persian Gulf are generally resilient to these soft restrictions. The exceptions are refined petroleum products from smaller energy exporters, specifically Bahrain and Kuwait. We find that this is linked to different market structures for refined petroleum products and crude oil. Crude oil is demanded globally, but can only be produced in select regions. Refined petroleum products are also demanded globally, but can be produced where crude oil has been imported.

The second study (Chapter 3) introduces and applies a new hybrid-unit input-output database of energy flows in the global economy. This database, the Hybridized Option for Modeling Input-output Energy Systems (HOMIES), models the financial flows of 26 non-energy sectors and the energy flows of 13 energy types among 136 countries over 20 years (1995-2015). HOMIES is able to trace flows of primary energy (e.g. crude oil), secondary energy (e.g. electricity), and embodied energy. The latter consists of direct energy used to produce a final good and indirect energy incorporated in intermediate goods and services used to make a final product. Using HOMIES, we find that 23% of the world’s embodied energy network is comprised of trade linkages in indirect energy between primary energy producing countries and countries with which they do not have direct trade ties. We also find that the global economy is 90% more dependent on imports of indirect energy than direct energy.

The third study (Chapter 4) applies HOMIES to the global supply chains for transport equipment. This sector is unique in its complexity; it requires many kinds of manufacturing inputs from many different countries. It is also a key factor in achieving mobility security, or the ability to meet global transportation demand. The transport equipment sector relies heavily on maritime transport and, consequently, on transit through maritime chokepoints. In this study, we build an extension to HOMIES that isolates the portion of international trade that relies on thirteen key maritime chokepoints. This extension, HOMIES-CP, also differentiates between direct and indirect chokepoint dependence. The former is estimated based on bilateral transactions that require chokepoint transit. The latter compounds chokepoint dependencies as a product or service moves through the supply chain. In this study, we use HOMIES-CP to examine the mechanisms that drive chokepoint dependence in the major exporters and importers of transport equipment.