Browsing by Subject "Adaptation"
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Item Open Access A Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment for the City of Atlanta, Georgia(2010-04-28T18:23:36Z) Morsch, AmyThe Southeastern United States will experience several impacts from climate change over the coming decades, including average temperature increases of several degrees, more frequent droughts, and heavier rain and flood events. More intense weather will place stress on Atlanta’s infrastructure, affect planning decisions, and increase demands for already scarce natural and financial resources. The impacts will affect the health of Atlantans and test the strength of the local and regional economy. Understanding the future climate and preparing now will help ensure that the city remains an economically viable, healthy, and enjoyable place to live and work. Twenty-four planning areas in nine sectors that the city can influence were evaluated to determine their vulnerability and risk with regard to climate change. The assessments were designed using guidance from ICLEI’s Adaptation Guidebook and involved dozens of expert interviews, analysis of city reports, and a comprehensive literature review. The results show that air quality, water quality, and energy assurance are the most vulnerable, at-risk planning areas in the City of Atlanta. These areas are crucial to the health of citizens and the economic viability of the city. Increasing their resiliency will require significant coordination with all levels of government and the private sector. Failure to properly prepare these planning areas for climate change could result in substantial costs to the city. Several additional planning areas show significant vulnerability and risk. These include: electricity production and demand, affordable housing, disaster response, heat relief, stormwater management, urban forest management, road and bridge maintenance, and air transport. Analysis of vulnerability and risk by sector resulted in similar findings. The sectors of energy, water, and health will be most impacted by climate change over the coming decades. Improving the resiliency of these sectors may be most effectively achieved through measures that focus on strengthening sectors like ecology, transportation, and land use and development. This study identified recurring barriers that lower the city’s adaptive capacity. Lack of program funding and knowledge of climate change - and the impacts - were pervasive. Short planning horizons and planning efforts based on historical data (or future projections that ignore climate change) are also common and reduce Atlanta’s resiliency. Coordination between several planning areas is strong, but could be increased in others such as heat relief and urban planning. Narrow government mandates, like the flood plain ordinance, can also limit progress towards climate resiliency. In other cases, strict mandates like those stemming from the CSO Consent Decree have been instrumental to project success. The results of this project are intended to inform the next phase of adaptation planning. This involves setting high-level goals for climate resiliency and outlining the adaptation tactics to achieve them. It is recommended that a diverse, knowledgeable committee of local decision makers and stakeholders be tasked with this challenge. A robust adaptation strategy will place Atlanta in the company of other climate proactive cities that have already created comprehensive adaptation plans, like New York City and Chicago.Item Open Access A Ripe Future? Coastal Climate Perceptions and Adaptations among the Long Island Wine Industry(2017-04-28) Hall, EmilyCoastal climates have distinctive effects on the growth, quality, and quantity produced of wine grapes. A changing coastal climate could alter these interactions and impact regional wine style and variety. There is a need to understand how growers and wine makers are perceiving and responding to climate change to inform future adaptation strategies. To explore this topic, those in the wine industry on the Eastern End of Long Island, NY were interviewed regarding their perception of 1) how the maritime climate affects viticulture, 2) how that interaction has changed/may change in the future, 3) how they will adapt, and 4) how viticulture affects the local environment. The maritime climate has the perceived effects of moderating land temperature, inducing humidity, and featuring unpredictable weather such as hurricanes and coastal storms. Most respondents believe that the maritime climate has changed over time, allowing for higher quality wine but also greater environmental risk. Industry professionals don’t see extensive adaptation methods as necessary yet, but do seek to utilize sustainable and vigilant vineyard practices to enhance resilience in times of greater risk and uncertainty.Item Open Access Adaptation and Tradition in Hellenistic Sacred Laws(2012) Austino, Chad ErikThis dissertation examines the adaptability of civic cults during the Hellenistic period. Faced with shifting populations, increasing social tensions, economic changes, and political pressures, Hellenistic communities devised a number of strategies aimed at negotiating the tension between maintenance of traditional religious practices and adaptive, context-specific change. Through the lens of inscribed Greek sacred laws we see communities balancing the twin requirements of innovation and tradition. The epigraphic record shows significant changes to the choreography of religious experience in response to demographic change; experimentation in funding mechanisms, in what appear to be responses to economic and cultural changes; ambitious attempts to redefine the configuration of sacred space both inside the city and out; savvy rhetorical and ritual framing of innovation in the face of cults that had had failed or else were on the brink of doing so.
Through a series of case studies I elucidate the legislative strategies with which communities dealt with these challenges. In chapter 1, I investigate legal strategies aimed at maintaining traditional oracular procedures as more visitors were coming to iatromantic shrines. I focus on the shrine of Apollo Coropeius in Thessaly where the civic authority at Demetrias passed a law reevaluating the administrative and ritual procedures for consultation. In chapter 2, I analyze the changing obligations of sacred personnel to perform rites in the city at large, i.e. before festivals, in the face of shifting socioeconomic norms. Communities frequently experimented with alternative mechanisms to fund religious activities. A sacred law from Halicarnassus forms the backbone of this analysis. I argue that cultural pressures may have helped shape these mechanisms. Chapter 3 concerns legislative strategies for the reconfiguration of sacred space, particularly the moving or refactoring of sanctuaries. Here I analyze a third-century decree from Tanagra that regulates the transfer of a sanctuary of Demeter and Kore. Other laws, particularly from Anaphe and Peparethus, provide crucial details for the rearrangement of important cult structures. In these cases, we see the concerted efforts to provide for private and public and sacred and secular interests in order to ensure the perpetuation of traditional religious practices. The fourth chapter investigates the reinvention of cult caused by political and ideological interests. Communities employed rhetorical strategies to justify or mask the reinvention or renewal of traditional rites that had lapsed or were on the brink of doing so. I focus on two case studies that illustrate the complexities of legislating ritual reinvention. A second-century Athenian law details the rites for the revived Thargelia whereas a decree from Magnesia-on-the-Maeander details the expansion of the cult of Artemis Leukophryene with a new festival commemorating the goddess' new temple. In both cases, we can see rhetorical strategies of augmentation and renewal reflected in the writings of Anaximines of Lampsacus. The concluding chapter provides a view of the other side of the coin: what happens when communities fail to adapt to the challenges that threatened their cults? Polybius, Pausanias, and Plutarch shed much light on our most pressing questions. For instance, what did failed cults look like? How did Greeks envisage dilapidated sanctuaries and defunct cults? Overall, the case studies based on sacred laws present a Greek view of religious change that finds strength in change, continuity in adaptation, commonality in variation, stability in the shifting sands of historical change. The portrait of Greek religion that emerges from this study is one in which tradition and innovation form two sides of the same coin, rather than opposing forces
Item Embargo Adaptation and Translation of Cancer Stigma Scale to Evaluate Perceived and Experienced Stigma among Pediatric Cancer Patients in Mwanza, Tanzania(2024) Pham, HongBackground: The Cataldo Cancer Stigma Scale (CASS) was developed to measure patient experienced and perceived stigma and was further modified for use in the pediatric patient population. This study aimed to adapt and translate a Swahili version of the CASS for use in the Tanzanian pediatric patient population to measure cancer stigma and identify the types of stigma pediatric cancer patients face. Methods: Approximately 40 items were extracted from two prior developmental and validation studies of the CASS that assessed stigma in adult patients and non-patient cohorts. The survey items, developed initially in English, underwent translation into Swahili, back-translated, reconciled, and screened for duplications. The translated items were refined using concurrent cognitive interviewing. Results: After three rounds of cognitive interviews with 15 respondents, comprehension of the survey questions was assessed and improved with all items reaching at least 80% comprehension. Additional reviews included grammar and specific Swahili word selection changes to clarify the question’s meaning. Duplications or repetition of sentences were also considered to remove questions from the survey. The final survey comprised 25 survey items with 7 stigma sub-categories. Conclusions: This study sheds light on the complex nature of cancer-related stigma in pediatric patients. For future purposes, research is needed to validate the CASS survey with a larger sample of the population, including a comparison stigma assessment to establish validity.
Item Open Access Adaptation to Climate Change by Smallholder Coffee Producers in Latin America(2016-04-29) King, Danielle; Wang, Tianyu; Finley, JenniferSmallholder coffee farmers in Latin America are already being impacted by and adapting to climate change. Our client, Counter Culture Coffee, a coffee roaster that sources from coffee cooperatives throughout Latin America and around the world, has a commitment to sustainability and ethical sourcing. As such, CCC seeks to better understand the viability of potential adaptation strategies in order to support their partners in developing resilient livelihood strategies and ensuring sustained, high-quality coffee production. We conducted participatory action research with two partner coffee cooperatives in Guatemala and Peru to determine which adaptation strategies were most desirable and feasible. Methods included key actor and cooperative leader interviews, focus groups with cooperative members, and transect walks. Based on analysis of this data, we identified five potential climate change adaptation strategies and the financial, human, natural, physical, and social capitals required to implement them. We provided recommendations on the viability of each strategy.Item Restricted Adapting to Rising Sea Levels(2010) Peloso, Margaret ElizabethAccording to IPCC estimates, sea levels will rise between .18 and .6 meters by 2100. More recent estimates indicate that actual amounts of sea level rise may be much more, and that 1 meter of sea level rise by 2100 is likely a conservative estimate. These rising sea levels will result not only in more flooding during storm events, but also increased erosion and gradual inundation of coastal property. At the same time, coastal populations in the United States continue to increase rapidly: over half of all Americans live in coastal counties, and at least 25 million more people are expected to move to the coast by 2015. The end result is that human populations, coastal infrastructure, and coastal ecosystems will become increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This study examines the political and legal constraints to and opportunities for adaptation to rising sea levels. Using legal and policy analysis and case studies from California, North Carolina and Texas, this study explores the ability of governments to use market tools, land use regulations, and property acquisition to promote adaptation to rising sea levels. Because of market dynamics and political factors including flaws in public risk perception, I conclude that governments who wish to avoid extensive coastal engineering, , can address coastal community vulnerability through a combination of regulations and incentives that spur state and local governments to engage in forward land use planning and other measures to reduce their exposure to sea level rise impacts.
Item Open Access Agriculture in a Changing Landscape: Modeling shifts in the geospatial distribution of crops in response to climate change(2014-04-17) Morse, NoraAltered patterns of temperature and precipitation associated with global climate change are expected to affect the productivity of agricultural regions around the world, with varying regional impacts. Since ideal environmental conditions vary depending on the physiological needs of specific plant types, the regions where we grow different crop varieties are likely to shift in response. This shift will have profound implications for rural landscapes and communities, as well as global food supply and international markets. In this research I use Classification and Regression Tree (CART) modeling to investigate whether changes in climate over the past 50 years have contributed to shifts in the distribution of crops in Minnesota. I incorporate climate, soil, and agricultural management data to create a time series of regression tree models which predict the acreage of three different important commodity crops, corn, soy, and wheat, for each county. The resulting models indicate that farmers’ decisions to grow corn are positively associated with warmer winter temperatures, and that the temperature threshold has increased over time. Soil quality is the primary predictor of soybean acreage, with a stable threshold over time. Wheat models produced inconsistent results, possibly due to displacement by conversion of wheat acreage to corn acreage. This suggests that farmers are already employing crop-switching strategies in response to recent changes in climate. As the impacts of climate change increase in severity, additional research and investment will be needed to help agricultural producers continue to adapt.Item Open Access Analysis of Climate Adaptation Strategies for Southeast U.S. Coastal Cities(2008-04-25T01:45:18Z) Reeves, UllaBrittThe realities of climate change are no longer future predictions to address in years to come. Impacts to Southeast coastal communities from rising sea levels, strange weather, and stronger storms caused by a warming planet are occurring today. Trends in scientific measurements clearly indicate that temperatures are rising, sea ice is melting, and storm intensity is increasing. The Southeast coastline is particularly vulnerable to these changes and local communities are the first to feel the impacts and address the needs. Yet many conversations about adaptation to climate change impacts are only occurring at high levels of government concerning international issues. Local decision-makers in the Southeast U.S. need tools to identify strategies that will provide adequate protection to their citizens as well as to manage environmental quality and prepare for any uncertainties. This Master’s project identifies primary and secondary climate change impacts to coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. A preliminary analysis was conducted to identify the societal implications incurred from impacts and the specific sector of society to which those impacts correspond. A resiliency criterion analysis was then created to qualitatively examine climate adaptation response strategies through three core evaluation mechanisms: adequate adaptive capacity, environmental sustainability, and the win-win nature of measures. To test the usefulness of the resiliency criteria, sea level rise response strategies were analyzed. Methods for this project included an extensive literature review of scientific findings as well as in-depth interviews with nine professional experts in the fields of government, academia, and coastal environmental non-profit organizations. The results of the criteria analysis indicate that measures receiving a “very high” ranking thoroughly meet the resiliency goals of maximizing human safety, community protection, environmental sustainability, and flexibility. Measures ranking “low” or “very low” fail the resiliency criteria in two or more categories and likely contribute to environmental degradation. Reviewing adaptation strategies for resiliency is an effective determination of strategic response initiatives. Creating communities resilient to climate change will require local officials to utilize tools such as this to choose optimal adaptation strategies.Item Open Access Analysis of Global Sea Level Rise Impact and Adaptation Risk Assessments(2011-04-28) Ward, MollyGlobal sea levels currently are rising and will continue to rise far into the future. This rise engenders significant risks to life and the environment, as it creates negative physical, economic, and societal impacts across the globe. The precise magnitude of the impacts depends on a diversity of variables, e.g., the amount the sea will rise, the magnitude of storm surges, and the types of adaptation and protection measures in place to mitigate the impacts. If the various geographic regions across the globe are to adequately prepare for the rising sea, it is necessary to conduct risk assessments to determine which specific impacts and the policy options that are necessary to mitigate those impacts. While many regions have conducted analyses and are planning adaptation measures, many have neither thoroughly assessed the impacts nor planned adequately for the risks. Additionally, some regions that have conducted analyses did not rigorously assess the impacts or a diversity of possible policy options. This may be due to lack of sufficient funding to conduct the assessment, lack of knowledge of the severity of the issue, or lack of expertise to conduct a thorough assessment. This paper examines a diversity of risk assessments conducted by regions worldwide. It includes a range of studies that assess regions with different economic capacities, types of terrain, location, and that implement a range of different methodologies. It examines and compares the impacts and policy options included in the analyses, as well as the variable inputs and evaluation criteria that were implemented to conduct the assessments. While some previous studies have analyzed a particular risk assessment methodology for sea level rise or compared adaptation measures, no previous study has been conducted to comparatively weigh the components and results of impact and adaptation risk assessments. Through a comparison of the components and results of a variety of risk analyses, this study provides valuable insights into the diverse impacts and possible policy options that may be selected for inclusion in future sea level rise studies. The goal of this study is to assist regions in tackling the problem of sea level rise by providing a foundation to streamline the process for future assessments. Based on the assessed reports, the results demonstrate that the most commonly analyzed impacts are those to a region’s economy and population. Additionally, the impacts to a region’s infrastructure, particularly transportation infrastructure, and total land surface appear to be of great importance. The variable inputs that appear to be most commonly applied to assess the impacts are storm surge and a range of sea level rise scenarios, as opposed to one specific future sea level rise quantity. The results of a comparison of reports that analyze policy options to sea level rise show that hard adaptation options (e.g., dikes, sea walls, breakwaters) are more commonly assessed than soft adaptation options (e.g., land use change, relocation). Of the hard and soft measure categories, natural barriers and resettle were included in the most reports. Additionally, it appears valuable to include the current protection activities and policies of a region in an assessment. The criteria most utilized for conducting the policy evaluations are the protection cost of a measure and its environmental impacts. While not all reports proposed an exact recommendation that the study area should pursue for mitigating sea level rise impacts, soft options were more frequently recommended at the conclusion of the reports. The majority of the studies were conducted with quantitative methods. However, it is recommended that future assessments also include a qualitative perspective. It may be valuable to discuss the impacts of sea level rise with residents of an area to determine which impacts are considered most important to mitigate and to determine the most appropriate adaptation options to pursue in preparation for mitigating those impacts. There is no correlation between a study region and the quantity of impacts analyzed or depth of the impacts assessed. Additionally, there is no correlation between a study region and the policy options pursued. Lastly, omissions of variables and criteria from the reports are explored. Future impact studies should include location-specific trends in sea level rise, as opposed to assessing the impacts based on the global average future sea level rise prediction. It is also important to incorporate the speed of the rise in a dynamic analysis, as well as any uncertainties in a report’s input variables. Future policy assessments should include a criterion that accounts for the human behavior and response to the sea level rise and the implemented policy measures.Item Open Access Ancestry-based Methods for Characterizing the Evolutionary History of Admixed Populations(2022) Hamid, ImanAdmixture occurs when previously isolated populations come together to form a new population with genetic ancestry from those sources. Admixture is ubiquitous across the tree of life, including humans, and is often associated with migration and exposure to new environments and selective pressures. Admixed populations provide a unique opportunity to study adaptation on short timescales by introducing beneficial alleles at high frequency. However, admixed populations are often excluded from genomic studies due to lack of applicable methodology. Instead of relying on classical methods confounded by the process of admixture itself, we can detect changes in patterns of genetics ancestry that are informative about selection in admixed populations and at the short timescales often relevant for post-admixture selection. However, we lack theoretical expectations and methods to detect and characterize ancestry-based genomic signals indicative of post-admixture selection and adaptation. Common ancestry outlier approaches discard information about the surrounding genomic context and are prone to false positives due to drift and demography. Here, I present three studies which leverage patterns of genetic ancestry to investigate the evolutionary history of admixed populations. First, I develop a suite of ancestry-based summary statistics and computational methods to detect post-admixture adaptation, and demonstrate their application in a case study of human adaptation to malaria. In particular, these summary statistics incorporate patterns of ancestry beyond the site under selection, such as the length of contiguous ancestry tracts surrounding the locus, and are informative about the strength and timing of selection in admixed populations. I observe one of the strongest signals of recent selection in humans at the malaria protective Duffy-null allele, and show that this mode of strong single-locus selection over 20 generations has impacted genome-wide patterns of ancestry. Next, I move beyond summary statistics to develop a deep learning strategy for localizing regions of the genome under selection. This method takes images of chromosomes painted by ancestry as input to avoid the loss of information and bias that can occur when relying on user-defined summary statistics. I demonstrate this approach on simulated admixture scenarios and find that the method successfully localizes variants under selection 95% percent of the time, outperforms the common ancestry outlier approach, and is robust to demographic misspecification. Lastly, I present the first Illyrian genome sequences available from the Iron Age in a study of the ancestry and genetic relationships of five neonates buried in Korčula, Croatia. I find genetic support for classifying these individuals as Illyrian, and show that patterns of ancestry and genetic variation are consistent with their geographic location between Italy and the mainland Balkans. In the combined work presented here, I advance our ability to study the evolutionary history of admixed populations, which has implications for our understanding of phenotypic variation, disease risk, and conservation genetics across many study systems. Further, these methods tailored to the mosaic ancestry of admixed populations is a step towards expanding the diversity of populations, especially humans, who benefit from discoveries and advancement in genomic research.
Item Open Access Bioenergetic and Fitness Costs of PAH Adapted Fundulus heteroclitus to Early Life PAH and Hypoxia Exposures(2019-04-26) Fuerte, MichaelGrowing evidence suggests that acute polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposures have toxic mitochondrial effects and may inhibit aerobic respiration. However, the effect of subteratogenic exposures during development is not well described in literature – especially in the presence of other deleterious environmental conditions. For example, Atlantic teleost fishes experience seasonal hypoxia that may exacerbate co-occurring PAH exposure due to molecular crosstalk with the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) pathway. This study investigated the potential link between sustained swimming performance and mitochondrial oxygen consumption in two populations of Fundulus heteroclitus months after a single initial exposure to a PAH mixture with and without hypoxia. This study used lab-reared embryos from killifish originating in the Elizabeth River (Portsmouth, VA) near a polluted wood treatment facility where the fish have become highly resistant to developmental cardiac teratogenicity (Republic Creosoting; ~113886 ng PAHs/g dry sediment). Another population of killifish were sourced from an undeveloped reference location (King’s Creek; ~526 ng PAHs/g dry sediment) outside the Elizabeth River. Subset individuals were treated with either a subteratogenic dilution of a complex PAH mixture (∑[PAHs] ≈ 25.2 μg/L) for 24 hours post-fertilization (hpf), diurnal hypoxia exposure for 14 days post-fertilization (dpf), or both. Upon reaching 6 months of age, their sustained swimming velocity (Ucrit) was measured in a recirculating swim chamber. A separate subset was processed for basal and mitochondrial oxygen consumption rate (OCR) analysis. The study found that killifish population that had historically little PAH exposure had a higher sustained swimming performance than killifish adapted to PAHs. Additionally, mitochondrial oxygen consumption, at baseline and at an induced maximal rate, increases with PAH exposure for the non-adapted fish and hypoxia exposure for PAH-adapted fish.Item Open Access Climate science strategy of the US National Marine Fisheries Service(Marine Policy, 2016-12) Sykora-Bodie, Seth; Busch, D Shallin; Griffis, Roger; Link, Jason; Abrams, Karen; Baker, Jason; Brainard, Russell E; Ford, Michael; Hare, Jonathan A; Himes-Cornell, Amber; Hollowed, Anne; Mantua, Nathan J; McClatchie, Sam; McClure, Michelle; Nelson, Mark W; Osgood, Kenric; Peterson, Jay O; Rust, Michael; Saba, Vincent; Sigler, Michael F; Toole, Christopher; Thunberg, Eric; Waples, Robin S; Merrick, RichardItem Open Access Community Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in East Palo Alto(2016-08-23) Saena, FagamalamaClimate change and sea level rise continue to devastate communities around the globe. The impacts have a disproportionate effect on those of lower socio-economic levels, and the consequences are frequently not borne equally amongst impacted individuals (UNDP, 2013). Community-based adaptation has been widely used to assess vulnerabilities and impacts at the community level, with an inclusive process that addresses root causes of risk. The process provides the opportunity for local government to empower and engaged impacted communities in identifying and prioritising their urgent adaptation needs. This study aims to understand East Palo Alto community vulnerabilities by assessing local knowledge and perception of risk to climate change. East Palo Alto, an urban city in California with socio- economic challenges, is vulnerable to flooding and coastal inundation. The limited financial and institutional capacity of the local government and community increases vulnerability and risk. Recommendations and steps are presented to guide actions and programs that are crucial in addressing community priorities and concernsItem Open Access Community Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in East Palo Alto(2016-08-23)Climate change and sea level rise continue to devastate communities around the globe. The impacts have a disproportionate effect on those of lower socio-economic levels, and the consequences are frequently not borne equally amongst impacted individuals (UNDP, 2013). Community-based adaptation has been widely used to assess vulnerabilities and impacts at the community level, with an inclusive process that addresses root causes of risk. The process provides the opportunity for local government to empower and engaged impacted communities in identifying and prioritizing their urgent adaptation needs. This study aims to understand East Palo Alto community vulnerabilities by assessing local knowledge and perception of risk to climate change. East Palo Alto, an urban city in California with socio-economic challenges, is vulnerable to flooding and coastal inundation. The limited financial and institutional capacity of the local government and community increases vulnerability and risk. Recommendations and steps are presented to guide actions and programs that are crucial in addressing community priorities and concerns.Item Open Access Consistency and Adaptation of Gaussian Process Regression, Bayesian Stochastic Block Model and Tail Index(2021) Jiang, ShengBayesian methods offer adaptive inference via hierarchical extensions and uncertaintyquantification automatically with corresponding posterior distribution. Frequentist evaluation of Bayesian methods becomes a fundamental and necessary step in Bayesian analysis.
Bayesian nonparametric regression under a rescaled Gaussian process prior offers smoothness-adaptive function estimation with near minimax-optimal error rates. Hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with stochastic variable selection, are known to also adapt to the unknown intrinsic dimension of a sparse true regression function. But it remains unclear if such extensions offer variable selection consistency, i.e., if the true subset of important variables could be consistently learned from the data. It is shown here that variable consistency may indeed be achieved with such models at least when the true regression function has finite smoothness to induce a polynomially larger penalty on inclusion of false positive predictors. Our result covers the high dimensional asymptotic setting where the predictor dimension is allowed to grow with the sample size.
Stochastic Block Models (SBMs) are a fundamental tool for community detection in network analysis. But little theoretical work exists on the statistical performance of Bayesian SBMs, especially when the number of communities is unknown. This project studies weakly assortative SBMs whose members of the same community are more likely to connect with one another than with members from other communities. The weak assortativity constraint is embedded within an otherwise weak prior, and, under mild regularity conditions, the resulting posterior distribution is shown to concentrate on the true number of communities and membership allocation as the network size grows to infinity. A reversible-jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior computation strategy is developed by adapting the allocation sampler. Finite sample properties are examined via simulation studies in which the proposed method offers competitive estimation accuracy relative to existing methods under a variety of challenging scenarios.
Tail index estimation has been well studied in the frequentist literature. However, few asymptotic studies on Bayesian tail index estimation are available. This paper works with a transformation based semi-parametric density model by non-parametrically transforming a parametric CDF. The semiparametric density model offers both accurate density estimation and tail index estimation. Compared with frequentist methods, it avoids choosing a high quantile to threshold the data. We provide sufficient conditions on the parametric family and the logistic Gaussian process priors, such that posterior contraction rate of tail index can be established. Limitations of the semiparametric density model are also discussed.
Item Open Access Crop Insurance and Climate Change: Balancing structure and flexibility to improve on-farm management of climate risk(2014-04-18) Morse, NoraEXECUTIVE SUMMARY: INTRODUCTION Crop insurance has become an important tool for managing economic and environmental risk in the agricultural sector, and one of the largest sources of Federal subsidies to agricultural producers. This research examines the near- and long-term risks to agricultural producers, and seeks to identify and evaluate potential policy opportunities within the federal crop insurance program to improve the climate adaptation capacity of insured farms. The crop insurance program contains several structural barriers to sustainable, adaptive management practices, including a lack of soil and water conservation requirements common to other farm support programs (remedied in the Agricultural Act of 2014), and stringent planting date requirements which discourage farmers from using cover crops to protect their soil from erosion and enhance fertility, as well as diversify their farms (both economically and biologically) and increase climate resiliency. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Reinstate conservation compliance requirements for eligibility to receive federal subsidies towards crop insurance coverage (successfully passed in the Agricultural Act of 2014). 2. Provide farmers who plant cover crops with an additional “buffer” period after their policy’s final planting date to allow appropriate termination of the cover crop without jeopardizing the insurance coverage on their primary crop. ANALYSIS & METHODS To evaluate the economic impacts of requiring conservation compliance for eligibility to receive crop insurance subsidies, I constructed a cost benefit analysis at the national scale, including cash flows for the economy as a whole, the government, and affected farmers. My analysis focuses on the marginal impact of the program, quantifying only the marginal costs and benefits of implementing the program on farms which are not currently participating in any other Farm Bill programs requiring conservation compliance, and which will be coming under the compliance requirement for the first time due to their use of subsidized crop insurance. This eliminates all farms which would be subject to the requirement whether or not it was added to the crop insurance program, and thus more accurately quantifies the impact of the policy change within the context of other interrelated farm support programs. Due to the lack of data from the field regarding the dynamics of planting date restrictions and cover cropping decisions, I could not construct a national-scale cost benefit analysis to evaluate my second policy recommendation. I instead created a farm-scale cost benefit model to compare the performance of a commodity mono-crop with a dual, cover crop and commodity crop system. The model takes into account the unique economic, social, and biological attributes of the farm using yield, acreage, crop selection, planting dates, management practices, and insurance parameters to produce estimates of the costs and benefits at the farm level. RESULTS The results of my analysis show that conservation compliance, even under the most conservative scenario, provides a net benefit to farmers and to the economy as a whole for a comparatively modest initial investment on the part of farmers and the government. In my moderately conservative cost benefit analysis scenario, reinstating the conservation compliance requirements in association with crop insurance provides an incremental net benefit of at least $4,411 per acre in present value terms, with over $780 per acre of those benefits accruing to the farmer. The cover crop analysis did not provide any generalizable results, however it does suggest that a buffer period within the planting date restrictions for farmers growing cover crops may help mitigate the risk of cover crops interfering with the profitability of farmers’ primary commodity crop, and thus remove one of the barriers to adoption. I recommend a pilot test of this policy change, with rigorous measurement and evaluation of the impacts on farm revenue, insurance and subsidy payments, and environmental outcomes. CONCLUSIONS With impending near- and long-term threats of climate change, the crop insurance program should balance the need for rigid management requirements to ensure an appropriate baseline level of risk mitigation and management with the flexibility to allow farmers to experiment with new management practices to find what works best in their new climate context. The benefits of the conservation compliance requirement vastly outweigh the costs, and provide a cost-effective mechanism for improving adaptive capacity on already vulnerable agricultural lands. While the planting date buffer period is a promising mechanism for increasing the use of cover crops and improving farmers’ capacity to develop new adaptive risk management strategies at the local level, additional research and field testing is needed to determine the impact of relaxing the constraint on actual adoption rates in the field.Item Open Access Darfur, Conflict and Climate Change(2008-04-25T18:59:06Z) Croshaw, HeatherThe issue of climate change poses to be one of the most pressing challenges facing community of nation states in the 21st century. While both developed and developing nations will feel the far-reaching impacts of climate change, Africa, as a whole, will be hit hardest by effects of climate change. The combination of resource scarcity, human insecurity, weak political institutions and limited financial means is likely to nurture the ripe conditions for conflict to erupt. Already this is evident in Darfur where the impacts of climate change have contributed to the outbreak of acute conflict. These impacts include expanding desertification, decreased rainfall and land degradation. The consequences are dire, as pastoralists have migrated south for improved grazing for their herds, yet farmers have denied them access due to their marginal lands. As a result, more Darfurians are competing for access to land, water, and other natural resources than at any other time. The increased competition only further aggravates the already uneasy political, social, and ethnic relationships in the Darfur region. This Master’s Project first discusses the linkages between climate changes, weak states, and conflict and second how preventative adaptation strategies can alleviate conflicts.Item Open Access Dopaminergic modulation of retinal processing from starlight to sunlight.(Journal of pharmacological sciences, 2019-05-04) Roy, Suva; Field, Greg DNeuromodulators such as dopamine, enable context-dependent plasticity of neural circuit function throughout the central nervous system. For example, in the retina, dopamine tunes visual processing for daylight and nightlight conditions. Specifically, high levels of dopamine release in the retina tune vision for daylight (photopic) conditions, while low levels tune it for nightlight (scotopic) conditions. This review covers the cellular and circuit-level mechanisms within the retina that are altered by dopamine. These mechanisms include changes in gap junction coupling and ionic conductances, both of which are altered by the activation of diverse types of dopamine receptors across diverse types of retinal neurons. We contextualize the modulatory actions of dopamine in terms of alterations and optimizations to visual processing under photopic and scotopic conditions, with particular attention to how they differentially impact distinct cell types. Finally, we discuss how transgenic mice and disease models have shaped our understanding of dopaminergic signaling and its role in visual processing. Cumulatively, this review illustrates some of the diverse and potent mechanisms through which neuromodulation can shape brain function.Item Open Access Genetics Analysis of Standing Variation for Floral Morphology and Fitness Components in a Natural Population of Mimulus Guttatus (Common Monkeyflower)(2009) Lee, Young WhaAn unresolved problem in evolutionary biology is the nature of forces that maintain standing variation for quantitative traits. In this study we take advantage of newly developed genomic resources to understand how variation is maintained for flower size and fitness components in a natural population of annual Mimulus guttatus in the Oregon Cascades. Extensive inbreeding depression has been documented in this population for fertility and viability (Willis 1999 a,b), while previous biometric experiments have demonstrated that some of the floral variation in this site is due to common alleles perhaps maintained by balancing selection (Kelly and Willis 2001, Kelly 2003). Detailed comparison of the genetic architecture of these two categories of traits can clarify the relative contributions of mutation versus selection in maintaining trait variation within populations as well as the relevance of standing variation for trait diversification.
We present here the results from a large scale effort to dissect variation for flower size and a suite of genetically correlated traits. In 3 independent F2 mapping populations we mapped QTLs for floral morphology (flower width and length, pistil length, and stamen length), flowering time, and leaf size. We also mapped segregation distortion loci and QTLs for fertility components (pollen viability and seed set) that exhibit inbreeding depression. We compare the genetic architecture of these two sets of traits and find clear differences. Morphological traits and flowering time are polygenic and QTLs are generally additive. In contrast, deleterious QTLs associated with segregation distortion or fertility are partially recessive and include major QTLs. There is also little co-localization between morphological/flowering time and fertility QTLs. The analysis suggests that the genetic basis of segregating variation in morphology is fundamentally different from traits exhibiting inbreeding depression. Further, there is considerable variation in the extant of pleiotropy exhibited by QTLs for morphological traits as well as flowering time and we report that epistasis contributes to the standing variation for these traits. The analysis suggests that the standing variation is relevant for trait diversification and that the variation in floral allometry, plant form, and life history observed in the guttatus species complex could have readily evolved from the standing variation.
Item Open Access Identifying branch-specific positive selection throughout the regulatory genome using an appropriate proxy neutral.(BMC genomics, 2020-05-13) Berrio, Alejandro; Haygood, Ralph; Wray, Gregory ABACKGROUND:Adaptive changes in cis-regulatory elements are an essential component of evolution by natural selection. Identifying adaptive and functional noncoding DNA elements throughout the genome is therefore crucial for understanding the relationship between phenotype and genotype. RESULTS:We used ENCODE annotations to identify appropriate proxy neutral sequences and demonstrate that the conservativeness of the test can be modulated during the filtration of reference alignments. We applied the method to noncoding Human Accelerated Elements as well as open chromatin elements previously identified in 125 human tissues and cell lines to demonstrate its utility. Then, we evaluated the impact of query region length, proxy neutral sequence length, and branch count on test sensitivity and specificity. We found that the length of the query alignment can vary between 150 bp and 1 kb without affecting the estimation of selection, while for the reference alignment, we found that a length of 3 kb is adequate for proper testing. We also simulated sequence alignments under different classes of evolution and validated our ability to distinguish positive selection from relaxation of constraint and neutral evolution. Finally, we re-confirmed that a quarter of all non-coding Human Accelerated Elements are evolving by positive selection. CONCLUSION:Here, we introduce a method we called adaptiPhy, which adds significant improvements to our earlier method that tests for branch-specific directional selection in noncoding sequences. The motivation for these improvements is to provide a more sensitive and better targeted characterization of directional selection and neutral evolution across the genome.