Browsing by Subject "Arctic"
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Item Open Access Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment(Environmental Research Letters, 2016-03-07) Abbott, BW; Jones, JB; Schuur, EAG; Chapin, FS; Bowden, WB; Bret-Harte, MS; Epstein, HE; Flannigan, MD; Harms, TK; Hollingsworth, TN; Mack, MC; McGuire, AD; Natali, SM; Rocha, AV; Tank, SE; Turetsky, MR; Vonk, JE; Wickland, KP; Aiken, GR; Alexander, HD; Amon, RMW; Benscoter, BW; Bergeron, Y; Bishop, K; Blarquez, O; Bond-Lamberty, B; Breen, AL; Buffam, I; Cai, Y; Carcaillet, C; Carey, SK; Chen, JM; Chen, HYH; Christensen, TR; Cooper, LW; Cornelissen, JHC; De Groot, WJ; Deluca, TH; Dorrepaal, E; Fetcher, N; Finlay, JC; Forbes, BC; French, NHF; Gauthier, S; Girardin, MP; Goetz, SJ; Goldammer, JG; Gough, L; Grogan, P; Guo, L; Higuera, PE; Hinzman, L; Hu, FS; Hugelius, G; Jafarov, EE; Jandt, R; Johnstone, JF; Karlsson, J; Kasischke, ES; Kattner, G; Kelly, R; Keuper, F; Kling, GW; Kortelainen, P; Kouki, J; Kuhry, P; Laudon, H; Laurion, I; MacDonald, RW; Mann, PJ; Martikainen, PJ; McClelland, JW; Molau, U; Oberbauer, SF; Olefeldt, D; Paré, D; Parisien, MA; Payette, S; Peng, C; Pokrovsky, OS; Rastetter, EB; Raymond, PA; Raynolds, MK; Rein, G; Reynolds, JF; Robards, M; Rogers, BM; Schdel, C; Schaefer, K; Schmidt, IK; Shvidenko, A; Sky, J; Spencer, RGM; Starr, G; Striegl, RG; Teisserenc, R; Tranvik, LJ; Virtanen, T; Welker, JM; Zimov, SAs the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.Item Open Access Community-scale changes to landfast ice along the coast of Alaska over 2000-2022(Environmental Research Letters, 2024-02-01) Cooley, SW; Ryan, JCLandfast sea ice that forms along the Arctic coastline is of great importance to coastal Alaskan communities. It provides a stable platform for transportation and traditional activities, protects the coastline from erosion, and serves as a critical habitat for marine mammals. Here we present a full assessment of landfast ice conditions across a continuous 7885 km length of the Alaska coastline over 2000-2022 using satellite imagery. We find that the maximum landfast ice extent, usually occurring in March, averaged 67 002 km2 during our study period: equivalent to 4% of the state’s land area. The maximum extent of landfast ice, however, exhibits considerable interannual variability, from a minimum of 29 871 km2 in 2019 to a maximum of 87 571 km2 in 2010. Likewise, the landfast ice edge position averages 22.9 km from the coastline but, at the community-scale, can range from 2.8 km (in Gambell) to 71.1 km (in Deering). Landfast ice breakup date averages 2 June but also varies considerably both between communities (3 May in Quinhagak to 24 July in Nuiqsut) and interannually. We identify a strong control of air temperature on breakup timing and use this relationship to project future losses of ice associated with Paris Climate Agreement targets. Under 2 °C of global air temperature warming, we estimate the average Alaskan coastal community will lose 19 days of ice, with the northernmost communities projected to lose 50 days or more. Overall, our results emphasize the highly localized nature of landfast ice processes and the vulnerability of coastal Arctic communities in a warming climate.Item Open Access Dire Straits: The American Canadian Dispute Over the Northwest Passage and a Policy Recommendation to Improve Arctic Security(2014-12-11) Elder, ZacGlobal climate change is thawing the Arctic, opening once impassable northern waterways and presenting new challenges for Canada and the United States as maritime traffic in the region increases. A longstanding legal dispute over the Northwest Passage, the once-frozen strait running through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago, continues to hinder bilateral efforts to curtail rising threats to the environment, human health, and national security. This analysis examines the existing literature on the North American Arctic and incorporates information gathered from various American and Canadian government officials, military personnel, and academics in order to craft a solution to this legal dispute. I argue that Canada and the United States can overcome this dispute by negotiating a bilateral transit agreement, and that this bilateral agreement will catalyze efforts by both nations to implement the infrastructure improvements necessary to safeguard the Arctic.Item Open Access Governing Maritime Transportation in the Arctic(2015-04-20) Ghosh, SupritiHistoric observations and projected models show a trend of declining sea-ice in the Arctic as a result of global climate change. Sea-ice is the largest obstacle to Arctic maritime transportation, and given these predictions, reductions of sea-ice extent in the Arctic Ocean will create new opportunities for the global transportation industry by opening up navigable passages. For this industry, the Arctic represents efficiencies via time and fuel saving routes and greater connectivity between major international ports. This paper synthesizes international, regional, and national scale governance regimes that collectively manage jurisdictional, infrastructural, and environmental issues of maritime transportation activities in the Arctic. The primary regimes in the Arctic are the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Arctic Council, national regimes, and the private transportation sector. Drawing on contemporary understandings of governance, these governance regimes are evaluated based on seven principles of global environmental governance. Existing governance institutions successfully contribute to overall governance in the region, yet there are still gaps that impair Arctic governance from functioning as a cohesive form of global environmental governance. Of the various governance regimes proposed by Arctic scholars to manage the changing region, I argue for an expansion of the Arctic Council that would facilitate a networked governance regime in the Arctic. A networked regime – a combination of multilevel, niche, and hybrid governance – recognizes the successful attributes of existing regimes and strives to connect them all in a network of governance to collectively and comprehensively manage the natural resources of a region. Growing maritime transportation activities in the Arctic will face opportunities and threats associated with the environmental, political, and socioeconomic conditions unique to the region. A networked governance regime in the Arctic would effectively manage the maritime transportation industry to mitigate and minimize environmental harms while achieving the greatest resource benefits for society.Item Open Access PROTECTING THE ARCTIC MARINE ENVIRONMENT: AN EVALUATION OF THE UNITED STATES PARTICIPATION IN THE ARCTIC COAST GUARD FORUM(2019-04-22) Hughes, TrevorDeveloped under the leadership of retired Commandant, Admiral Papp, and introduced in May 2013, the United States Coast Guard (U.S. Coast Guard) Arctic Strategic Plan highlighted the need for the United States to broaden partnerships in the Arctic through international collaborative efforts. Specifically, the 2013 Arctic Strategic Plan called for future Coast Guard and Department of Homeland Security leadership to explore the concept of an Arctic Coast Guard Forum (Papp, 2013). Two years later, on October 30, 2015, Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Paul Zukunft joined leaders from seven other nations to sign a joint statement that officially established the Arctic Coast Guard Forum (ACGF). Individual agencies with coast guard functions from Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the United States comprise the members of the ACGF. This Masters Project evaluates the United States’ participation in the ACGF. Specifically, this project focuses on evaluating benefits of the United States’ participation in the forum directly related to protection of the marine environment and makes recommendations for future planning purposes. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with high-ranking officials having firsthand experience with the forum and the United States Coast Guard. The interview data was then analyzed to identify strategic threats, opportunities, weaknesses, and strengths related to United States participation in the ACGF. The establishment of the ACGF was a direct result of changing environmental conditions in the Arctic Region. As retreating seasonal sea ice has given way to open water and northern shipping lanes have become viable for maritime transportation and shipping. Furthermore, open water allows new opportunities to explore the extraction of oil from seafloor that was once protected by sheets of multi-year ice. Additional vessel traffic and an increase in oil and gas lease sales related to pending resources extraction has drastically increased the region’s exposure to the threat of a coastal oil spill in U.S. waters. However, the United States currently lacks the resources and experience necessary to successfully manage an environmental response in the Arctic.Item Open Access Quantifying Ecologically Significant Feeding Areas for Marine Mammals and Seabirds in the Arctic(2017-04-27) Crothers, GinnyThe Arctic marine ecosystem is highly dynamic and sensitive to environmental change, experiencing the impacts of climate change at a rate at least twice as fast as other areas of the world. Arctic organisms are adapted to the strong seasonality of the Arctic marine ecosystem, making them sensitive to changes in phenology. While it has already been shown that phenological shifts are occurring with relation to sea ice and primary production in this region, it is necessary to further quantify what species and key ecological zones will be most impacted. In an effort to assess potential changes to these key ecological areas, I analyze satellite remote sensing data for sea ice concentration and chlorophyll a concentration in ecologically significant feeding areas in the Arctic. This provides for a clearer view of what species stand to gain or lose the most as the Arctic transitions to a more temperate marine environment.Item Open Access The Changing Structure and Function of Arthropod Food Webs in a Warming Arctic(2015) Koltz, Amanda M.Environmental changes, such as climate change, can have differential effects on species, with important consequences for community structure and ultimately, for ecosystem functioning. In the Arctic, where ecosystems are experiencing warming at twice the rate as elsewhere, these effects are expected to be particularly strong. A proper characterization of the link between warming and biotic interactions in these particular communities is of global importance because the tundra's permafrost stores a vast amount of carbon that could be released through decomposition as greenhouse gases and alter the global rate of climate change. In this dissertation, I examine how arthropod communities are responding to warming in the Arctic and how these responses might be affecting ecosystem functioning.
I first address the question of whether and how long-term changes in climate are affecting individual groups and overall community structure in a high-arctic arthropod food web. I find that increasingly warm springs and summers between 1996-2011 differentially affected some arthropod groups and that this led to major changes in the relative abundances of different trophic groups within the arthropod community. Specifically, spring and summer warming are associated with relatively more herbivores and parasitoids and fewer detritivores within the community. These changes are particularly pronounced in heath sites, suggesting that arthropod communities in dry habitats are more responsive to climate change than those in wet habitats. I also show that herbivores and parasitoids are sensitive to conditions at subzero temperatures, even during periods of diapause, and that all trophic groups benefit from a longer transition period between summer and winter. These results suggest that the projected winter and springtime warming in Greenland may have unexpected consequences for northern arthropod communities. Moreover, the relative increase in herbivores and loss of detritivores may be changing the influence of the arthropod community over key ecosystem processes such as decomposition, nutrient cycling, and primary productivity in the tundra.
Predator-induced trophic cascades have been shown to impact both community structure and ecosystem processes, yet it is unclear how climate change may exacerbate or dampen predator effects on ecosystems. In the second chapter of my dissertation, I investigate the role of one of the dominant tundra predators within the arctic ecosystem, wolf spiders, and how their impact might be changing with warming. Using results from a two-year-long field experiment, I test the influence of wolf spider density over the structure of soil microarthropod communities and decomposition rates under both ambient and artificially warmed temperatures. I find that predator effects on soil microarthropods change in response to warming and that these changes translate into context-specific indirect effects of predators on decomposition. Specifically, while high densities of wolf spiders lead to faster decomposition rates at ambient temperatures, they are associated with slower decomposition rates in experimentally warmed plots. My results suggest that if warming causes an increase in arctic wolf spider densities, these spiders may buffer the rate at which the massive pool of stored carbon is lost from the tundra.
Wolf spiders in the Arctic are expected to become larger with warming, but it is unclear how this change in body size will affect spider populations or the role of wolf spiders within arctic food webs. In the third chapter of my dissertation, I explore wolf spider population structure and juvenile recruitment at three sites of the Alaskan Arctic that naturally differ in mean spider body size. I find that there are fewer juveniles in sites where female body sizes are larger and that this pattern is likely driven by a size-related increase in the rate of intraspecific cannibalism. These findings suggest that across the tundra landscape, there is substantial variation in the population structure and trophic position of wolf spiders, which is driven by differences in female spider body sizes.
Overall, this dissertation demonstrates that arctic arthropod communities are changing as a result of warming. In the long-term, warming is causing a shift in arthropod community structure that is likely altering the functional role of these animals within the ecosystem. However even in the short-term, warming can alter species interactions and community structure, with important consequences for ecosystem function. Arthropods are not typically considered to be major players in arctic ecosystems, but I provide evidence that this assumption should be questioned. Considering that they are the largest source of animal biomass across much of the tundra, it is likely that their activities have important consequences for regional and global carbon dynamics.