Browsing by Subject "CLIMATE-CHANGE"
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Item Open Access Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment(Environmental Research Letters, 2016-03-07) Abbott, BW; Jones, JB; Schuur, EAG; Chapin, FS; Bowden, WB; Bret-Harte, MS; Epstein, HE; Flannigan, MD; Harms, TK; Hollingsworth, TN; Mack, MC; McGuire, AD; Natali, SM; Rocha, AV; Tank, SE; Turetsky, MR; Vonk, JE; Wickland, KP; Aiken, GR; Alexander, HD; Amon, RMW; Benscoter, BW; Bergeron, Y; Bishop, K; Blarquez, O; Bond-Lamberty, B; Breen, AL; Buffam, I; Cai, Y; Carcaillet, C; Carey, SK; Chen, JM; Chen, HYH; Christensen, TR; Cooper, LW; Cornelissen, JHC; De Groot, WJ; Deluca, TH; Dorrepaal, E; Fetcher, N; Finlay, JC; Forbes, BC; French, NHF; Gauthier, S; Girardin, MP; Goetz, SJ; Goldammer, JG; Gough, L; Grogan, P; Guo, L; Higuera, PE; Hinzman, L; Hu, FS; Hugelius, G; Jafarov, EE; Jandt, R; Johnstone, JF; Karlsson, J; Kasischke, ES; Kattner, G; Kelly, R; Keuper, F; Kling, GW; Kortelainen, P; Kouki, J; Kuhry, P; Laudon, H; Laurion, I; MacDonald, RW; Mann, PJ; Martikainen, PJ; McClelland, JW; Molau, U; Oberbauer, SF; Olefeldt, D; Paré, D; Parisien, MA; Payette, S; Peng, C; Pokrovsky, OS; Rastetter, EB; Raymond, PA; Raynolds, MK; Rein, G; Reynolds, JF; Robards, M; Rogers, BM; Schdel, C; Schaefer, K; Schmidt, IK; Shvidenko, A; Sky, J; Spencer, RGM; Starr, G; Striegl, RG; Teisserenc, R; Tranvik, LJ; Virtanen, T; Welker, JM; Zimov, SAs the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.Item Open Access Boom and bust carbon-nitrogen dynamics during reforestation(Ecological Modelling, 2017-09-24) Parolari, AJ; Mobley, ML; Bacon, AR; Katul, GG; Richter, DDB; Porporato, A© 2017 Elsevier B.V. Legacies of historical land use strongly shape contemporary ecosystem dynamics. In old-field secondary forests, tree growth embodies a legacy of soil changes affected by previous cultivation. Three patterns of biomass accumulation during reforestation have been hypothesized previously, including monotonic to steady state, non-monotonic with a single peak then decay to steady state, and multiple oscillations around the steady state. In this paper, the conditions leading to the emergence of these patterns is analyzed. Using observations and models, we demonstrate that divergent reforestation patterns can be explained by contrasting time-scales in ecosystem carbon-nitrogen cycles that are influenced by land use legacies. Model analyses characterize non-monotonic plant-soil trajectories as either single peaks or multiple oscillations during an initial transient phase controlled by soil carbon-nitrogen conditions at the time of planting. Oscillations in plant and soil pools appear in modeled systems with rapid tree growth and low initial soil nitrogen, which stimulate nitrogen competition between trees and decomposers and lead the forest into a state of acute nitrogen deficiency. High initial soil nitrogen dampens oscillations, but enhances the magnitude of the tree biomass peak. These model results are supported by data derived from the long-running Calhoun Long-Term Soil-Ecosystem Experiment from 1957 to 2007. Observed carbon and nitrogen pools reveal distinct tree growth and decay phases, coincident with soil nitrogen depletion and partial re-accumulation. Further, contemporary tree biomass loss decreases with the legacy soil C:N ratio. These results support the idea that non-monotonic reforestation trajectories may result from initial transients in the plant-soil system affected by initial conditions derived from soil changes associated with land-use history.Item Open Access Designing a network of critical zone observatories to explore the living skin of the terrestrial Earth(Earth Surface Dynamics, 2017-12-18) Brantley, SL; McDowell, WH; Dietrich, WE; White, TS; Kumar, P; Anderson, SP; Chorover, J; Ann Lohse, K; Bales, RC; Richter, DD; Grant, G; Gaillardet, JThe critical zone (CZ), the dynamic living skin of the Earth, extends from the top of the vegetative canopy through the soil and down to fresh bedrock and the bottom of the groundwater. All humans live in and depend on the CZ. This zone has three co-evolving surfaces: the top of the vegetative canopy, the ground surface, and a deep subsurface below which Earth's materials are unweathered. The network of nine CZ observatories supported by the US National Science Foundation has made advances in three broad areas of CZ research relating to the co-evolving surfaces. First, monitoring has revealed how natural and anthropogenic inputs at the vegetation canopy and ground surface cause subsurface responses in water, regolith structure, minerals, and biotic activity to considerable depths. This response, in turn, impacts aboveground biota and climate. Second, drilling and geophysical imaging now reveal how the deep subsurface of the CZ varies across landscapes, which in turn influences aboveground ecosystems. Third, several new mechanistic models now provide quantitative predictions of the spatial structure of the subsurface of the CZ.
Many countries fund critical zone observatories (CZOs) to measure the fluxes of solutes, water, energy, gases, and sediments in the CZ and some relate these observations to the histories of those fluxes recorded in landforms, biota, soils, sediments, and rocks. Each US observatory has succeeded in (i) synthesizing research across disciplines into convergent approaches; (ii) providing long-term measurements to compare across sites; (iii) testing and developing models; (iv) collecting and measuring baseline data for comparison to catastrophic events; (v) stimulating new process-based hypotheses; (vi) catalyzing development of new techniques and instrumentation; (vii) informing the public about the CZ; (viii) mentoring students and teaching about emerging multidisciplinary CZ science; and (ix) discovering new insights about the CZ. Many of these activities can only be accomplished with observatories. Here we review the CZO enterprise in the United States and identify how such observatories could operate in the future as a network designed to generate critical scientific insights. Specifically, we recognize the need for the network to study network-level questions, expand the environments under investigation, accommodate both hypothesis testing and monitoring, and involve more stakeholders. We propose a driving question for future CZ science and ahubs-and-campaigns
model to address that question and target the CZ as one unit. Only with such integrative efforts will we learn to steward the life-sustaining critical zone now and into the future.Item Open Access Estimating the population size of lemurs based on their mutualistic food trees(Journal of Biogeography, 2018-11-01) Herrera, JP; Borgerson, C; Tongasoa, L; Andriamahazoarivosoa, P; Rasolofoniaina, BJR; Rakotondrafarasata, ER; Randrianasolo, JLRR; Johnson, SE; Wright, PC; Golden, CDAim: Species’ distributions and abundances are primarily determined by the suitability of environmental conditions, including climate and interactions with sympatric species, but also increasingly by human activities. Modelling tools can help in assessing the extinction risk of affected species. By combining species distribution modelling of abiotic and biotic niches with population size modelling, we estimated the abundance of 19 lemur taxa in three regions, especially focusing on 10 species that are considered Endangered or Critically Endangered. Location: Madagascar. Taxa: Lemurs (Primates) and angiosperm trees. Methods: We used climate data, field samples, and published occurrence data on trees to construct species distribution models (SDM) for lemur food tree species. We then inferred the SDMs for lemurs based on the probability of occurrence of their food trees as well as climate. Finally, we used tree SDMs, topography, distance to the forest edge, and field estimates of lemur population density to predict lemur abundance in general linear models. Results: The SDMs of lemur food trees were stronger predictors of the occurrence of lemurs than climate. The predicted probability of presence of food trees, slope, elevation, and distance from the forest edge were significant correlates of lemur density. We found that sixteen species had minimum estimated abundances greater than 10,000 individuals over >1,000km2. Three lemur species are especially threatened, with less than 2,500 individuals predicted for Cheirogaleus sibreei, and heavy hunting pressure for the relatively small populations of Indri indri and Hapalemur occidentalis. Main conclusions: Biotic interactors were important variables in SDMs for lemurs, allowing refined estimates of ranges and abundances. This paper provides an analytical workflow that can be applied to other taxonomic groups to substantiate estimates of species’ vulnerability to extinction.Item Open Access Free-ranging livestock threaten the long-term survival of giant pandas(Biological Conservation, 2017-12-01) Li, Binbin V; Pimm, Stuart L; Li, Sheng; Zhao, Lianjun; Luo, Chunping© 2017 Elsevier Ltd China has implemented forest policies and expanded protected areas to halt deforestation and protect giant panda habitats. These policies simultaneously encouraged local communities to raise livestock that then freely range in forests. This grazing had unintended consequences. As an alternative livelihood, it has become the most prevalent human disturbance across the panda's range. How do free-ranging livestock impact giant panda habitats and what are the implications for future conservation and policy on a larger scale? We use Wanglang National Nature Reserve as a case study. It has seen a nine-fold livestock increase during past 15 years. We combined bamboo survey plots, GPS collar tracking, long-term monitoring, and species distribution modelling incorporating species interaction to understand the impacts across spatial and temporal scales. Our results showed that livestock, especially horses, lead to a significant reduction of bamboo biomass and regeneration. The most intensively used areas by livestock are in the valleys, which are also the areas that pandas prefer. Adding livestock presence to predictive models of the giant panda's distribution yielded a higher accuracy and suggested livestock reduce panda habitat by 34%. Pandas were driven out of the areas intensively used by livestock. We recommend the nature reserve carefully implement a livestock ban and prioritise removing horses because they cause the greater harm. To give up livestock, local communities prefer long-term subsidies or jobs to a one-time payment. Thus, we recommend the government provide payments for ecosystem services that create jobs in forest stewardship or tourism while reducing the number of domestic animals.Item Open Access Hydrological and ecological responses of ecosystems to extreme precipitation regimes: A test of empirical-based hypotheses with an ecosystem model(Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 2016-10-01) Ye, JS; Reynolds, JF; Maestre, FT; Li, FMMany uncertainties exist in our quest to understand and predict how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to climate change. A particularly challenging issue is how increases in extreme precipitation regimes, which are characterized by larger but fewer individual precipitation events, will impact ecosystems. Based on a wide-ranging review of empirical studies of both hydrological and ecological processes, Knapp et al. (2008) generated a suite of hypotheses positing how these processes would respond to an increase in extreme precipitation regimes and, from this, concluded that mesic ecosystems would be more detrimentally impacted than xeric ones. In this study we present the first thorough test of these hypotheses by examining how forest, shrubland, grassland and desert ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau, having very different vegetation and climate characteristics, respond to more extreme rainfall regimes. We accomplished this by using a simulation model (Biome-BGC) to examine the integrated behavior of these ecosystems based on the simultaneous responses and interactions of 10 hydrological and ecological processes: runoff, canopy evaporation, soil evaporation, soil water storage, transpiration, net primary productivity, soil respiration, net ecosystem exchange, nitrogen [N] mineralization, and N leaching. We ran forty-year simulations (1986–2008) where we manipulated mean growing season precipitation to create more extreme intra-annual precipitation regimes characterized by lower precipitation frequencies, longer dry periods, and larger individual (daily) precipitation events. When compared to ambient conditions, our simulations showed that increases in extreme rainfall regimes (1) impacted all hydrological processes in mesic ecosystems, resulting in a reduction of soil mineral N due to increased leaching; and (2) enhanced plant growth in xeric ecosystems, leading to larger and denser canopies and higher light interception. The responses of hydrological processes tended to follow Knapp et al.’s hypotheses more so than ecological responses. Overall, responses of mesic ecosystems closely followed the hypotheses but xeric ecosystems were highly variable and only weakly consistent with them. Our findings provide new insights as to how more extreme rainfall regimes may potentially affect the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems.Item Open Access Marine resource management and conservation in the Anthropocene(Environmental Conservation, 2018-06-01) ASWANI, SHANKAR; BASURTO, XAVIER; FERSE, SEBASTIAN; GLASER, MARION; CAMPBELL, LISA; CINNER, JOSHUAE; DALTON, TRACEY; JENKINS, LEKELIAD; MILLER, MARCL; POLLNAC, RICHARD; VACCARO, ISMAEL; CHRISTIE, PATRICK© 2017 Foundation for Environmental Conservation. Because the Anthropocene by definition is an epoch during which environmental change is largely anthropogenic and driven by social, economic, psychological and political forces, environmental social scientists can effectively analyse human behaviour and knowledge systems in this context. In this subject review, we summarize key ways in which the environmental social sciences can better inform fisheries management policy and practice and marine conservation in the Anthropocene. We argue that environmental social scientists are particularly well positioned to synergize research to fill the gaps between: (1) local behaviours/needs/worldviews and marine resource management and biological conservation concerns; and (2) large-scale drivers of planetary environmental change (globalization, affluence, technological change, etc.) and local cognitive, socioeconomic, cultural and historical processes that shape human behaviour in the marine environment. To illustrate this, we synthesize the roles of various environmental social science disciplines in better understanding the interaction between humans and tropical marine ecosystems in developing nations where issues arising from human-coastal interactions are particularly pronounced. We focus on: (1) the application of the environmental social sciences in marine resource management and conservation; (2) the development of 'new' socially equitable marine conservation; (3) repopulating the seascape; (4) incorporating multi-scale dynamics of marine social-ecological systems; and (5) envisioning the future of marine resource management and conservation for producing policies and projects for comprehensive and successful resource management and conservation in the Anthropocene.Item Open Access Scientific concepts for an integrated analysis of desertification(Land Degradation and Development, 2011-03-01) Reynolds, JF; Grainger, A; Stafford Smith, DM; Bastin, G; Garcia-Barrios, L; Fernández, RJ; Janssen, MA; Jürgens, N; Scholes, RJ; Veldkamp, A; Verstraete, MM; Von Maltitz, G; Zdruli, PThe Global Drylands Observing System proposed in this issue should reduce the huge uncertainty about the extent of desertification and the rate at which it is changing, and provide valuable information to scientists, planners and policy-makers. However, it needs careful design if information outputs are to be scientifically credible and salient to the needs of people living in dry areas. Its design would benefit from a robust, integrated scientific framework like the Dryland Development Paradigm to guide/inform the development of an integrated global monitoring and assessment programme (both directly and indirectly via the use of modelling). Various types of dryland system models (e.g. environmental, socioeconomic, land-use cover change, and agent-based) could provide insights into how to combine the plethora of monitoring information gathered on key socioeconomic and biophysical indicators to develop integrated assessment models. This paper shows how insights from models can help in selecting and integrating indicators, interpreting synthetic trends, incorporating cross-scalar processes, representing spatio-temporal variation, and evaluating uncertainty. Planners could use this integrated global monitoring and assessment programme to help implement effective policies to address the global problem of desertification. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Item Open Access The next widespread bamboo flowering poses a massive risk to the giant panda(Biological Conservation, 2019-06-01) Tian, Zhaoxue; Liu, Xuehua; Fan, Zhiyong; Liu, Jianguo; Pimm, Stuart L; Liu, Lanmei; Garcia, Claude; Songer, Melissa; Shao, Xiaoming; Skidmore, Andrew; Wang, Tiejun; Zhang, Yuke; Chang, Youde; Jin, Xuelin; Gong, Minghao; Zhou, Lingguo; He, Xiangbo; Dang, Gaodi; Zhu, Yun; Cai, QiongThe IUCN Red List has downgraded several species from “endangered” to “vulnerable” that still have largely unknown extinction risks. We consider one of those downgraded species, the giant panda, a bamboo specialist. Massive bamboo flowering could be a natural disaster for giant pandas. Using scenario analysis, we explored possible impacts of the next bamboo flowering in the Qinling and Minshan Mountains that are home to most giant pandas. Our results showed that the Qinling Mountains could experience large-scale bamboo flowering leading to a high risk of widespread food shortages for the giant pandas by 2020. The Minshan Mountains could similarly experience a large-scale bamboo flowering with a high risk for giant pandas between 2020 and 2030 without suitable alternative habitat in the surrounding areas. These scenarios highlight thus-far unforeseen dangers of conserving giant pandas in a fragmented habitat. We recommend advance measures to protect giant panda from severe population crashes when flowering happens. This study also suggests the need to anticipate and manage long-term risks to other downgraded species.Item Open Access Water turnover among human populations: Effects of environment and lifestyle.(American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council, 2020-01) Swanson, Zane S; Pontzer, HermanOBJECTIVES:To discuss the environmental and lifestyle determinants of water balance in humans and identify the gaps in current research regarding water use across populations. METHODS:We investigated intraspecific variation in water turnover by comparing data derived from a large number of human populations measured using either dietary survey or isotope tracking. We also used published data from a broad sample of mammalian species to identify the interspecific relationship between body mass and water turnover. RESULTS:Water facilitates nearly all physiological tasks and water turnover is strongly related to body size among mammals (r2=0.90). Within humans, however, the effect of body size is small. Instead, water intake and turnover vary with lifestyle and environmental conditions. Notably, despite living physically active lives in conditions that should increase water demands, the available measures of water intake and turnover among small-scale farming and pastoralist communities are broadly similar to those in less active, industrialized populations. CONCLUSIONS:More work is required to better understand the environmental, behavioral, and cultural determinants of water turnover in humans living across a variety of ecosystems and lifestyles. The results of such work are made more vital by the climate crisis, which threatens the water security of millions around the globe.