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Item Open Access Analysis of risk factors influencing outcomes after cord blood transplantation in children with juvenile myelomonocytic leukemia: a EUROCORD, EBMT, EWOG-MDS, CIBMTR study.(Blood, 2013-09) Locatelli, Franco; Crotta, Alessandro; Ruggeri, Annalisa; Eapen, Mary; Wagner, John E; Macmillan, Margaret L; Zecca, Marco; Kurtzberg, Joanne; Bonfim, Carmem; Vora, Ajay; Díaz de Heredia, Cristina; Teague, Lochie; Stein, Jerry; O'Brien, Tracey A; Bittencourt, Henrique; Madureira, Adrienne; Strahm, Brigitte; Peters, Christina; Niemeyer, Charlotte; Gluckman, Eliane; Rocha, VandersonWe retrospectively analyzed 110 patients with juvenile myelomonocytic leukemia, given single-unit, unrelated donor umbilical cord blood transplantation. Median age at diagnosis and at transplantation was 1.4 years (age range, 0.1-6.4 years) and 2.2 years (age range, 0.5-7.4 years), respectively. Before transplantation, 88 patients received chemotherapy; splenectomy was performed in 24 patients. Monosomy of chromosome 7 was the most frequent cytogenetic abnormality, found in 24% of patients. All but 8 patients received myeloablative conditioning; cyclosporine plus steroids was the most common graft-versus-host disease prophylaxis. Sixteen percent of units were HLA-matched with the recipient, whereas 43% and 35% had either 1 or 2 to 3 HLA disparities, respectively. The median number of nucleated cells infused was 7.1 × 10(7)/kg (range, 1.7-27.6 × 10(7)/kg). With a median follow-up of 64 months (range, 14-174 months), the 5-year cumulative incidences of transplantation-related mortality and relapse were 22% and 33%, respectively. The 5-year disease-free survival rate was 44%. In multivariate analysis, factors predicting better disease-free survival were age younger than 1.4 years at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 0.42; P = .005), 0 to 1 HLA disparities in the donor/recipient pair (HR, 0.4; P = .009), and karyotype other than monosomy 7 (HR, 0.5; P = .02). Umbilical cord blood transplantation may cure a relevant proportion of children with juvenile myelomonocytic leukemia. Because disease recurrence remains the major cause of treatment failure, strategies to reduce incidence of relapse are warranted.Item Open Access Association Between Thrombolytic Door-to-Needle Time and 1-Year Mortality and Readmission in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.(JAMA, 2020-06) Man, Shumei; Xian, Ying; Holmes, DaJuanicia N; Matsouaka, Roland A; Saver, Jeffrey L; Smith, Eric E; Bhatt, Deepak L; Schwamm, Lee H; Fonarow, Gregg CImportance:Earlier administration of intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in acute ischemic stroke is associated with reduced mortality by the time of hospital discharge and better functional outcomes at 3 months. However, it remains unclear whether shorter door-to-needle times translate into better long-term outcomes. Objective:To examine whether shorter door-to-needle times with intravenous tPA for acute ischemic stroke are associated with improved long-term outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older who were treated for acute ischemic stroke with intravenous tPA within 4.5 hours from the time they were last known to be well at Get With The Guidelines-Stroke participating hospitals between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2016, with 1-year follow-up through December 31, 2017. Exposures:Door-to-needle times for intravenous tPA. Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, all-cause readmission, and the composite of all-cause mortality or readmission. Results:Among the 61 426 patients treated with tPA within 4.5 hours, the median age was 80 years and 43.5% were male. The median door-to-needle time was 65 minutes (interquartile range, 49-88 minutes). The 48 666 patients (79.2%) who were treated with tPA and had door-to-needle times of longer than 45 minutes, compared with those treated within 45 minutes, had significantly higher all-cause mortality (35.0% vs 30.8%, respectively; adjusted HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.09-1.18]), higher all-cause readmission (40.8% vs 38.4%; adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.12]), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (56.0% vs 52.1%; adjusted HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.06-1.12]). The 34 367 patients (55.9%) who were treated with tPA and had door-to-needle times of longer than 60 minutes, compared with those treated within 60 minutes, had significantly higher all-cause mortality (35.8% vs 32.1%, respectively; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 [95% CI, 1.07-1.14]), higher all-cause readmission (41.3% vs 39.1%; adjusted HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10]), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (56.8% vs 53.1%; adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.10]). Every 15-minute increase in door-to-needle times was significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.02-1.05]) within 90 minutes after hospital arrival, but not after 90 minutes (adjusted HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.99-1.03]), higher all-cause readmission (adjusted HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (adjusted HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.03]). Conclusions and Relevance:Among patients aged 65 years or older with acute ischemic stroke who were treated with tissue plasminogen activator, shorter door-to-needle times were associated with lower all-cause mortality and lower all-cause readmission at 1 year. These findings support efforts to shorten time to thrombolytic therapy.Item Open Access Association of anxiety and depression with all-cause mortality in individuals with coronary heart disease.(J Am Heart Assoc, 2013-03-19) Watkins, Lana L; Koch, Gary G; Sherwood, Andrew; Blumenthal, James A; Davidson, Jonathan RT; O'Connor, Christopher; Sketch, Michael HBACKGROUND: Depression has been related to mortality in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients, but few studies have evaluated the role of anxiety or the role of the co-occurrence of depression and anxiety. We examined whether anxiety is associated with increased risk of mortality after accounting for depression in individuals with established CHD. METHODS AND RESULTS: The cohort was composed of 934 men and women with confirmed CHD (mean age, 62±11 years) who completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (HADS) during hospitalization for coronary angiography. Over the 3-year follow-up period, there were 133 deaths. Elevated scores on the HADS anxiety subscale (HADS-A≥8) were associated with increased risk of mortality after accounting for established risk factors including age, congestive heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction, 3-vessel disease, and renal disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27; 95% CI, 1.55 to 3.33; P<0.001). Elevated scores on the HADS depression subscale (HADS-D≥8) were also associated with increased risk of mortality (HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.47 to 3.22; P<0.001). When both psychosocial factors were included in the model, each maintained an association with mortality (anxiety, HR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.83; P=0.006; depression, HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.58; P=0.025). Estimation of the HR for patients with both anxiety and depression versus those with neither revealed a larger HR than for patients with either factor alone (HR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.95 to 4.94; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Anxiety is associated with increased risk of mortality in CHD patients, particularly when comorbid with depression. Future studies should focus on the co-occurrence of these psychosocial factors as markers of increased mortality risk.Item Open Access Causes of the change in the rates of mortality and severe complications of diabetes mellitus: 1992-2012.(Med Care, 2015-03) Yashkin, Arseniy P; Picone, Gabriel; Sloan, FrankOBJECTIVE: To quantify the causes of the changes in the rates of mortality and select severe complications of diabetes mellitus, type 2 (T2D) among the elderly between 1992 and 2012. RESEARCH DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study design based on Medicare 5% administrative claims data from 1992 to 2012 was used. Traditional fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, age 65 and older, diagnosed with T2D and living in the United States between 1992 and 2012 were included in the study. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition was used to quantify the potential causes of the change in the rates of death, congestive heart failure and/or acute myocardial infarction, stroke, amputation of lower extremity and end-stage renal disease between 1992 and 2012. RESULTS: The number of beneficiaries in the analysis sample diagnosed with T2D increased from 152,191 in 1992 to 289,443 in 2012. Over the same time period, rates of mortality decreased by 1.2, congestive heart failure and/or acute myocardial infarction by 2.6, stroke by 1.6, amputation by 0.6 while rates of end-stage renal disease increased by 1.5 percentage points. Improvements in the management of precursor conditions and utilization of recommended healthcare services, not population composition, were the primary causes of the change. CONCLUSIONS: With the exception of end-stage renal disease, outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with T2D improved. Analysis suggests that persons diagnosed with T2D are living longer with fewer severe complications. Much of the improvement in outcomes likely reflects more regular contact with health professionals and better management of care.Item Open Access Copy Number Variants of Undetermined Significance Are Not Associated with Worse Clinical Outcomes in Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome.(The Journal of pediatrics, 2018-11) Dailey-Schwartz, Andrew L; Tadros, Hanna J; Azamian, Mahshid Sababi; Lalani, Seema R; Morris, Shaine A; Allen, Hugh D; Kim, Jeffrey J; Landstrom, Andrew POBJECTIVE:To determine the prevalence, spectrum, and prognostic significance of copy number variants of undetermined significance (cnVUS) seen on chromosomal microarray (CMA) in neonates with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS). STUDY DESIGN:Neonates with HLHS who presented to Texas Children's Hospital between June 2008 and December 2016 were identified. CMA results were abstracted and compared against copy number variations (CNVs) in ostensibly healthy individuals gathered from the literature. Findings were classified as normal, consistent with a known genetic disorder, or cnVUS. Survival was then compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Secondary outcomes included tracheostomy, feeding tube at discharge, cardiac arrest, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). RESULTS:Our study cohort comprised 105 neonates with HLHS, including 70 (66.7%) with normal CMA results, 9 (8.6%) with findings consistent with a known genetic disorder, and 26 (24.7%) with a cnVUS. Six of the 26 (23.0%) neonates with a cnVUS had a variant that localized to a specific region of the genome seen in the healthy control population. One-year survival was 84.0% in patients with a cnVUS, 68.3% in those with normal CMA results, and 33.3% in those with a known genetic disorder (P = .003). There were no significant differences in secondary outcomes among the groups, although notably ECMO was used in 15.7% of patients with normal CMA and was not used in those with cnVUS and abnormal results (P = .038). CONCLUSIONS:Among children with HLHS, cnVUSs detected on CMA are common. The cnVUSs do not localize to specific regions of the genome, and are not associated with worse outcomes compared with normal CMA results.Item Open Access Effect of Once-Weekly Exenatide on Clinical Outcomes According to Baseline Risk in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Insights From the EXSCEL Trial.(Journal of the American Heart Association, 2018-10) Mentz, Robert J; Bethel, M Angelyn; Merrill, Peter; Lokhnygina, Yuliya; Buse, John B; Chan, Juliana C; Felício, João S; Goodman, Shaun G; Choi, Jasmine; Gustavson, Stephanie M; Iqbal, Nayyar; Lopes, Renato D; Maggioni, Aldo P; Öhman, Peter; Pagidipati, Neha J; Poulter, Neil R; Ramachandran, Ambady; Reicher, Barry; Holman, Rury R; Hernandez, Adrian F; EXSCEL Study GroupBackground In the EXSCEL (Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering), exenatide once-weekly resulted in a nonsignificant reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events ( MACEs ) and a nominal 14% reduction in all-cause mortality in 14 752 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2 DM ) with and without cardiovascular disease. Whether patients at increased risk for events experienced a comparatively greater treatment benefit with exenatide is unknown. Methods and Results In the EXSCEL population, we created risk scores for MACEs and all-cause mortality using step-wise selection of baseline characteristics. A risk score was calculated for each patient, and a time-to-event model for each end point was developed including the risk score, treatment assignment, and risk-treatment interaction. Interaction P values evaluating for a differential treatment effect by baseline risk were reported. Over a median follow-up of 3.2 years (interquartile range, 2.2, 4.4), 1091 (7.4%) patients died and 1744 (11.8%) experienced a MACE . Independent predictors of MACEs and all-cause mortality included age, sex, comorbidities (eg, previous cardiovascular event), body mass index, blood pressure, hemoglobin A1c, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. The all-cause mortality and MACE risk models had modest discrimination with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.73 and 0.71, respectively. No interaction was observed between treatment effect and risk profile for either end point (both interactions, P>0.1). Conclusions Baseline characteristics (eg, age, previous cardiovascular events) and routine laboratory values (eg, hemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate) provided modest prognostic value for mortality and MACEs in a broad population of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Exenatide's effects on mortality and MACEs were consistent across the spectrum of baseline risk. Clinical Trial Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT 01144338.Item Open Access Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.(The Lancet. Neurology, 2019-05) GBD 2016 Neurology CollaboratorsBackground
Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods
We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings
Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247-308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8-9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34-44] and DALYs by 15% [9-21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26-30] and DALYs by 27% [24-31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6-46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7-20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0-12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6-10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05-1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5-90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8-35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8-17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation
Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Item Open Access Hospital mortality of patients aged 80 and older after surgical repair for type A acute aortic dissection in Japan.(Medicine, 2016-08) Ohnuma, Tetsu; Shinjo, Daisuke; Fushimi, KiyohideTo evaluate whether patients aged 80 and older have higher risk of hospital mortality after repair of type A acute aortic dissection (TAAAD).Emergency surgery for TAAAD in patients aged 80 and older remains a controversial issue because of its high surgical risk.Data from patients who underwent surgical repair of TAAAD between April 2011 and March 2013 were retrospectively extracted from the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. The effect of age on hospital mortality was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis.A total of 5175 patients were enrolled. The mean age of patients was 67.1 ± 13.0 years, and the male:female ratio was 51:49. Patients aged 80 and older more frequently received tracheostomy than their younger counterparts (9.5% vs 5.4%, P <0.001). Intensive care unit and hospital stays were significantly longer in the elderly cohort versus the younger cohort (7.6 vs 6.7 days, P <0.001, and 42.2 vs 35.8 days, P <0.001, respectively). Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥80 years was significantly associated with a higher risk of hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.06; P <0.001). In linear regression analysis, age ≥80 years was also significantly associated with longer hospital stay (P = 0.007).In a large, nationwide, Japanese database, patients aged 80 and older were at increased risk of hospital mortality and length of hospital stay.Item Open Access Interaction Between the FOXO1A-209 Genotype and Tea Drinking Is Significantly Associated with Reduced Mortality at Advanced Ages.(Rejuvenation Res, 2016-06) Zeng, Y; Chen, H; Ni, T; Ruan, R; Nie, C; Liu, X; Feng, L; Zhang, F; Lu, J; Li, J; Li, Y; Tao, W; Gregory, SG; Gottschalk, W; Lutz, MW; Land, KC; Yashin, A; Tan, Q; Yang, Z; Bolund, L; Ming, Q; Yang, H; Min, J; Willcox, DC; Willcox, BJ; Gu, J; Hauser, E; Tian, X; Vaupel, JWOn the basis of the genotypic/phenotypic data from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) and Cox proportional hazard model, the present study demonstrates that interactions between carrying FOXO1A-209 genotypes and tea drinking are significantly associated with lower risk of mortality at advanced ages. Such a significant association is replicated in two independent Han Chinese CLHLS cohorts (p = 0.028-0.048 in the discovery and replication cohorts, and p = 0.003-0.016 in the combined dataset). We found the associations between tea drinking and reduced mortality are much stronger among carriers of the FOXO1A-209 genotype compared to non-carriers, and drinking tea is associated with a reversal of the negative effects of carrying FOXO1A-209 minor alleles, that is, from a substantially increased mortality risk to substantially reduced mortality risk at advanced ages. The impacts are considerably stronger among those who carry two copies of the FOXO1A minor allele than those who carry one copy. On the basis of previously reported experiments on human cell models concerning FOXO1A-by-tea-compounds interactions, we speculate that results in the present study indicate that tea drinking may inhibit FOXO1A-209 gene expression and its biological functions, which reduces the negative impacts of FOXO1A-209 gene on longevity (as reported in the literature) and offers protection against mortality risk at oldest-old ages. Our empirical findings imply that the health outcomes of particular nutritional interventions, including tea drinking, may, in part, depend upon individual genetic profiles, and the research on the effects of nutrigenomics interactions could potentially be useful for rejuvenation therapies in the clinic or associated healthy aging intervention programs.Item Open Access International variation in characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes and heart failure: Insights from TECOS.(American heart journal, 2019-12) Bhatt, Ankeet S; Luo, Nancy; Solomon, Nicole; Pagidipati, Neha J; Ambrosio, Giuseppe; Green, Jennifer B; McGuire, Darren K; Standl, Eberhard; Cornel, Jan H; Halvorsen, Sigrun; Lopes, Renato D; White, Harvey D; Holman, Rury R; Peterson, Eric D; Mentz, Robert J; TECOS Study GroupInternational differences in management/outcomes among patients with type 2 diabetes and heart failure (HF) are not well characterized. We sought to evaluate geographic variation in treatment and outcomes among these patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 14,671 participants in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS), those with HF at baseline and a documented ejection fraction (EF) (N = 1591; 10.8%) were categorized by enrollment region (North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia Pacific). Cox models were used to examine the association between geographic region and the primary outcome of all-cause mortality (ACM) or hospitalization for HF (hHF) in addition to ACM alone. Analyses were stratified by those with EF <40% or EF ≥40%. The majority of participants with HF were enrolled in Eastern Europe (53%). Overall, 1,267 (79.6%) had EF ≥40%. β-Blocker (83%) and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (86%) use was high across all regions in patients with EF <40%. During a median follow-up of 2.9 years, Eastern European participants had lower rates of ACM/hHF compared with North Americans (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.45; 95% CI: 0.32-0.64). These differences were seen only in the EF ≥40% subgroup and not the EF <40% subgroup. ACM was similar among Eastern European and North American participants (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.44-1.45). CONCLUSIONS: Significant variation exists in the clinical features and outcomes of HF patients across regions in TECOS. Patients from Eastern Europe had lower risk-adjusted ACM/hHF than those in North America, driven by those with EF ≥40%. These data may inform the design of future international trials.Item Open Access Losses of expected lifetime in the United States and other developed countries: methods and empirical analyses.(Demography, 2011-02) Shkolnikov, Vladimir M; Andreev, Evgeny M; Zhang, Zhen; Oeppen, James; Vaupel, James WPatterns of diversity in age at death are examined using e (†), a dispersion measure that equals the average expected lifetime lost at death. We apply two methods for decomposing differences in e (†). The first method estimates the contributions of average levels of mortality and mortality age structures. The second (and newly developed) method returns components produced by differences between age- and cause-specific mortality rates. The United States is close to England and Wales in mean life expectancy but has higher life expectancy losses and lacks mortality compression. The difference is determined by mortality age structures, whereas the role of mortality levels is minor. This is related to excess mortality at ages under 65 from various causes in the United States. Regression on 17 country-series suggests that e (†) correlates with income inequality across countries but not across time. This result can be attributed to dissimilarity between the age- and cause-of-death structures of temporal mortality reduction and intercountry mortality variation. It also suggests that factors affecting overall mortality decrease differ from those responsible for excess lifetime losses in the United States compared with other countries. The latter can be related to weaknesses of health system and other factors resulting in premature death from heart diseases, amenable causes, accidents and violence.Item Open Access Predicting mortality for paediatric inpatients where malaria is uncommon.(Arch Dis Child, 2012-10) Clifton, Dana C; Ramadhani, Habib O; Msuya, Levina J; Njau, Boniface N; Kinabo, Grace D; Buchanan, Ann M; Crump, John AOBJECTIVE: As the proportion of children living low malaria transmission areas in sub-Saharan Africa increases, approaches for identifying non-malarial severe illness need to be evaluated to improve child outcomes. DESIGN: As a prospective cohort study, we identified febrile paediatric inpatients, recorded data using Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) criteria, and collected diagnostic specimens. SETTING: Tertiary referral centre, northern Tanzania. RESULTS: Of 466 participants with known outcome, median age was 1.4 years (range 2 months-13.0 years), 200 (42.9%) were female, 11 (2.4%) had malaria and 34 (7.3%) died. Inpatient death was associated with: Capillary refill >3 s (OR 9.0, 95% CI 3.0 to 26.7), inability to breastfeed or drink (OR 8.9, 95% CI 4.0 to 19.6), stiff neck (OR 7.0, 95% CI 2.8 to 17.6), lethargy (OR 5.2, 95% CI 2.5 to 10.6), skin pinch >2 s (OR 4.8, 95% CI 1.9 to 12.3), respiratory difficulty (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.9 to 8.2), generalised lymphadenopathy (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.6 to 8.3) and oral candidiasis (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.4 to 8.3). BCS <5 (OR 27.2, p<0.001) and severe wasting (OR 6.9, p<0.001) were independently associated with inpatient death. CONCLUSIONS: In a low malaria transmission setting, IMCI criteria performed well for predicting inpatient death from non-malarial illness. Laboratory results were not as useful in predicting death, underscoring the importance of clinical examination in assessing prognosis. Healthcare workers should consider local malaria epidemiology as malaria over-diagnosis in children may delay potentially life-saving interventions in areas where malaria is uncommon.Item Open Access Rationale, design, and baseline characteristics of the CArdiovascular safety and Renal Microvascular outcomE study with LINAgliptin (CARMELINA®): a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial in patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardio-renal risk.(Cardiovascular diabetology, 2018-03-14) Rosenstock, Julio; Perkovic, Vlado; Alexander, John H; Cooper, Mark E; Marx, Nikolaus; Pencina, Michael J; Toto, Robert D; Wanner, Christoph; Zinman, Bernard; Baanstra, David; Pfarr, Egon; Mattheus, Michaela; Broedl, Uli C; Woerle, Hans-Juergen; George, Jyothis T; von Eynatten, Maximilian; McGuire, Darren K; CARMELINA® investigatorsBACKGROUND:Cardiovascular (CV) outcome trials in type 2 diabetes (T2D) have underrepresented patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), leading to uncertainty regarding their kidney efficacy and safety. The CARMELINA® trial aims to evaluate the effects of linagliptin, a DPP-4 inhibitor, on both CV and kidney outcomes in a study population enriched for cardio-renal risk. METHODS:CARMELINA® is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial conducted in 27 countries in T2D patients at high risk of CV and/or kidney events. Participants with evidence of CKD with or without CV disease and HbA1c 6.5-10.0% (48-86 mmol/mol) were randomized 1:1 to receive linagliptin once daily or matching placebo, added to standard of care adjusted according to local guidelines. The primary outcome is time to first occurrence of CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke. The key secondary outcome is a composite of time to first sustained occurrence of end-stage kidney disease, ≥ 40% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from baseline, or renal death. CV and kidney events are prospectively adjudicated by independent, blinded clinical event committees. CARMELINA® was designed to continue until at least 611 participants had confirmed primary outcome events. Assuming a hazard ratio of 1.0, this provides 90% power to demonstrate non-inferiority of linagliptin versus placebo within the pre-specified non-inferiority margin of 1.3 at a one-sided α-level of 2.5%. If non-inferiority of linagliptin for the primary outcome is demonstrated, then its superiority for both the primary outcome and the key secondary outcome will be investigated with a sequentially rejective multiple test procedure. RESULTS:Between July 2013 and August 2016, 6980 patients were randomized and took ≥ 1 dose of study drug (40.6, 33.1, 16.9, and 9.4% from Europe, South America, North America, and Asia, respectively). At baseline, mean ± SD age was 65.8 ± 9.1 years, HbA1c 7.9 ± 1.0%, BMI 31.3 ± 5.3 kg/m2, and eGFR 55 ± 25 mL/min/1.73 m2. A total of 5148 patients (73.8%) had prevalent kidney disease (defined as eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or macroalbuminuria [albumin-to-creatinine ratio > 300 mg/g]) and 3990 patients (57.2%) had established CV disease with increased albuminuria; these characteristics were not mutually exclusive. Microalbuminuria (n = 2896 [41.5%]) and macroalbuminuria (n = 2691 [38.6%]) were common. CONCLUSIONS:CARMELINA® will add important information regarding the CV and kidney disease clinical profile of linagliptin by including an understudied, vulnerable cohort of patients with T2D at highest cardio-renal risk. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier-NCT01897532; registered July 9, 2013.Item Open Access Relationship Between Cancer and Cardiovascular Outcomes Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.(J Am Heart Assoc, 2015-07-06) Hess, Connie N; Roe, Matthew T; Clare, Robert M; Chiswell, Karen; Kelly, Joseph; Tcheng, James E; Hagstrom, Emil; James, Stefan K; Khouri, Michel G; Hirsch, Bradford R; Kong, David F; Abernethy, Amy P; Krucoff, Mitchell WBACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease and cancer increasingly coexist, yet relationships between cancer and long-term cardiovascular outcomes post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are not well studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined stented PCI patients at Duke (1996-2010) using linked data from the Duke Information Systems for Cardiovascular Care and the Duke Tumor Registry (a cancer treatment registry). Our primary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. Secondary outcomes included composite cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, or repeat revascularization and all-cause mortality. We used adjusted cause-specific hazard models to examine outcomes among cancer patients (cancer treatment pre-PCI) versus controls (no cancer treatment pre-PCI). Cardiovascular mortality was explored in a cancer subgroup with recent (within 1 year pre-PCI) cancer and in post-PCI cancer patients using post-PCI cancer as a time-dependent variable. Among 15 008 patients, 3.3% (n=496) were cancer patients. Observed rates of 14-year cardiovascular mortality (31.4% versus 27.7%, P=0.31) and composite cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or revascularization (51.1% versus 55.8%, P=0.37) were similar for cancer versus control groups; all-cause mortality rates were higher (79.7% versus 49.3%, P<0.01). Adjusted risk of cardiovascular mortality was similar for cancer patients versus controls (hazard ratio 0.95; 95% CI 0.76 to 1.20) and for patients with versus without recent cancer (hazard ratio 1.46; 95% CI 0.92 to 2.33). Post-PCI cancer, present in 4.3% (n=647) of patients, was associated with cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.51; 95% CI 1.11 to 2.03). CONCLUSIONS: Cancer history was present in a minority of PCI patients but was not associated with worse long-term cardiovascular outcomes. Further investigation into PCI outcomes in this population is warranted.Item Open Access Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's life expectancy.(Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2016-04-12) Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Rau, Roland; Jeune, Bernard; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Lenart, Adam; Christensen, Kaare; Vaupel, James WHealth conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects' relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975-2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915-1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects.