Browsing by Subject "Climate Change"

Now showing 1 - 20 of 22

Open Access
A fast-moving target: achieving marine conservation goals under shifting climate and policies.
(Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America, 2020-01) Rilov, Gil; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Gissi, Elena; Pipitone, Carlo; Badalamenti, Fabio; Tamburello, Laura; Menini, Elisabetta; Goriup, Paul; Mazaris, Antonios D; Garrabou, Joaquim; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Danovaro, Roberto; Loiseau, Charles; Claudet, Joachim; Katsanevakis, Stelios
In the Anthropocene, marine ecosystems are rapidly shifting to new ecological states. Achieving effective conservation of marine biodiversity has become a fast-moving target because of both global climate change and continuous shifts in marine policies. How prepared are we to deal with this crisis? We examined EU Member States Programs of Measures designed for the implementation of EU marine environmental policies, as well as recent European Marine Spatial Plans, and discovered that climate change is rarely considered operationally. Further, our analysis revealed that monitoring programs in marine protected areas are often insufficient to clearly distinguish between impacts of local and global stressors. Finally, we suggest that while the novel global Blue Growth approach may jeopardize previous marine conservation efforts, it can also provide new conservation opportunities. Adaptive management is the way forward (e.g., preserving ecosystem functions in climate change hotspots, and identifying and targeting climate refugia areas for protection) using Marine Spatial Planning as a framework for action, especially given the push for Blue Growth.
Open Access
A mechanistic-bioclimatic modeling analysis of the potential impact of climate change on biomes of the Tibetan Plateau.
(Ecology, 2014-08) Ye, Jian-Sheng; Reynolds, James F; Li, Feng-Min
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is experiencing high rates of climatic change. We present a novel combined mechanistic-bioclimatic modeling approach to determine how changes in precipitation and temperature on the TP may impact net primary production (NPP) in four major biomes (forest, shrub, grass, desert) and if there exists a maximum rain use efficiency (RUE(MAX)) that represents Huxman et al.'s "boundary that constrain[s] site-level productivity and efficiency." We used a daily mechanistic ecosystem model to generate 40-yr outputs using observed climatic data for scenarios of decreased precipitation (25-100%); increased air temperature (1 degrees - 6 degrees C); simultaneous changes in both precipitation (+/- 50%, +/- 25%) and air temperature (+1 to +6 degrees C) and increased interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation (+1 sigma to +3 sigma, with fixed means, where sigma is SD). We fitted model output from these scenarios to Huxman et al.'s RUE(MAX) bioclimatic model, NPP = alpha + RUE x PPT (where alpha is the intercept, RUE is rain use efficiency, and PPT is annual precipitation). Based on these analyses, we conclude that there is strong support (when not explicit, then trend-wise) for Huxman et al.'s assertion that biomes converge to a common RUE(MAX) during the driest years at a site, thus representing the boundary for highest rain use efficiency; the interactive effects of simultaneously decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature on NPP for the TP is smaller than might be expected from additive, single-factor changes in these drivers; and that increasing IAV of precipitation may ultimately have a larger impact on biomes of the Tibetan Plateau than changing amounts of rainfall and air temperature alone.
Open Access
Above-ground biomass and structure of 260 African tropical forests.
(Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2013-01) Lewis, Simon L; Sonké, Bonaventure; Sunderland, Terry; Begne, Serge K; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; van der Heijden, Geertje MF; Phillips, Oliver L; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Baker, Timothy R; Banin, Lindsay; Bastin, Jean-François; Beeckman, Hans; Boeckx, Pascal; Bogaert, Jan; De Cannière, Charles; Chezeaux, Eric; Clark, Connie J; Collins, Murray; Djagbletey, Gloria; Djuikouo, Marie Noël K; Droissart, Vincent; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Ewango, Cornielle EN; Fauset, Sophie; Feldpausch, Ted R; Foli, Ernest G; Gillet, Jean-François; Hamilton, Alan C; Harris, David J; Hart, Terese B; de Haulleville, Thales; Hladik, Annette; Hufkens, Koen; Huygens, Dries; Jeanmart, Philippe; Jeffery, Kathryn J; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Leal, Miguel E; Lloyd, Jon; Lovett, Jon C; Makana, Jean-Remy; Malhi, Yadvinder; Marshall, Andrew R; Ojo, Lucas; Peh, Kelvin S-H; Pickavance, Georgia; Poulsen, John R; Reitsma, Jan M; Sheil, Douglas; Simo, Murielle; Steppe, Kathy; Taedoumg, Hermann E; Talbot, Joey; Taplin, James RD; Taylor, David; Thomas, Sean C; Toirambe, Benjamin; Verbeeck, Hans; Vleminckx, Jason; White, Lee JT; Willcock, Simon; Woell, Hannsjorg; Zemagho, Lise
We report above-ground biomass (AGB), basal area, stem density and wood mass density estimates from 260 sample plots (mean size: 1.2 ha) in intact closed-canopy tropical forests across 12 African countries. Mean AGB is 395.7 Mg dry mass ha⁻¹ (95% CI: 14.3), substantially higher than Amazonian values, with the Congo Basin and contiguous forest region attaining AGB values (429 Mg ha⁻¹) similar to those of Bornean forests, and significantly greater than East or West African forests. AGB therefore appears generally higher in palaeo- compared with neotropical forests. However, mean stem density is low (426 ± 11 stems ha⁻¹ greater than or equal to 100 mm diameter) compared with both Amazonian and Bornean forests (cf. approx. 600) and is the signature structural feature of African tropical forests. While spatial autocorrelation complicates analyses, AGB shows a positive relationship with rainfall in the driest nine months of the year, and an opposite association with the wettest three months of the year; a negative relationship with temperature; positive relationship with clay-rich soils; and negative relationships with C : N ratio (suggesting a positive soil phosphorus-AGB relationship), and soil fertility computed as the sum of base cations. The results indicate that AGB is mediated by both climate and soils, and suggest that the AGB of African closed-canopy tropical forests may be particularly sensitive to future precipitation and temperature changes.
Open Access
Antibiotic resistance-the need for global solutions.
(Lancet Infect Dis, 2013-12) Laxminarayan, Ramanan; Duse, Adriano; Wattal, Chand; Zaidi, Anita KM; Wertheim, Heiman FL; Sumpradit, Nithima; Vlieghe, Erika; Hara, Gabriel Levy; Gould, Ian M; Goossens, Herman; Greko, Christina; So, Anthony D; Bigdeli, Maryam; Tomson, Göran; Woodhouse, Will; Ombaka, Eva; Peralta, Arturo Quizhpe; Qamar, Farah Naz; Mir, Fatima; Kariuki, Sam; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Coates, Anthony; Bergstrom, Richard; Wright, Gerard D; Brown, Eric D; Cars, Otto
The causes of antibiotic resistance are complex and include human behaviour at many levels of society; the consequences affect everybody in the world. Similarities with climate change are evident. Many efforts have been made to describe the many different facets of antibiotic resistance and the interventions needed to meet the challenge. However, coordinated action is largely absent, especially at the political level, both nationally and internationally. Antibiotics paved the way for unprecedented medical and societal developments, and are today indispensible in all health systems. Achievements in modern medicine, such as major surgery, organ transplantation, treatment of preterm babies, and cancer chemotherapy, which we today take for granted, would not be possible without access to effective treatment for bacterial infections. Within just a few years, we might be faced with dire setbacks, medically, socially, and economically, unless real and unprecedented global coordinated actions are immediately taken. Here, we describe the global situation of antibiotic resistance, its major causes and consequences, and identify key areas in which action is urgently needed.
Open Access
Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.
(PLoS One, 2015) McNamara, Dylan E; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya; Smith, Martin D; Murray, A Brad
Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities.
Open Access
Climate change, disease range shifts, and the future of the Africa lion.
(Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, 2018-10) Carter, Neil H; Bouley, Paola; Moore, Sean; Poulos, Michael; Bouyer, Jérémy; Pimm, Stuart L
Open Access
Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.
(Ecol Appl, 2015-04) Flanagan, Neal E; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi
Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase due to anthropogenic watershed disturbance and accelerated nutrient and sediment export.
Open Access
Contingency in ecosystem but not plant community response to multiple global change factors
(New Phytologist, 2012) Bradford, MA; Wood, SA; Maestre, FT; REYNOLDS, JF; Warren, RJ
Community and ecosystem responses to global environmental change are contingent on the magnitude of change and interacting global change factors. To reveal whether responses are also contingent on the magnitude of each interacting factor, multifactor, multilevel experiments are required, but are rarely conducted. We exposed model grassland ecosystems to six levels of atmospheric CO2 and six levels of nitrogen enrichment, applying the latter both chronically (simulating deposition) and acutely (simulating fertilization). The 66 treatments were maintained for 6 months under controlled growing conditions, with biomass harvested every 28 d and sorted to species. Aboveground plant productivity responses to CO2 were contingent on nitrogen amount, and the responses to nitrogen amount were dependent on whether applications were chronic or acute. Specifically, productivity responses to increasing CO2 concentrations were accentuated with higher nitrogen enrichments, and productivity was greater when higher nitrogen enrichments were applied acutely. Plant community composition was influenced only by nitrogen enrichment, where the co-dominant grass species with the greatest leaf trait plasticity increasingly dominated with higher nitrogen amounts. Community processes are considered to be unpredictable, but our data suggest that the prediction of the impacts of simultaneous global changes is more complex for ecosystem processes, given that their responses are contingent on the levels of interacting factors.
Open Access
Development of a curricular thread to foster medical students' critical reflection and promote action on climate change, health, and equity.
(PloS one, 2024-01) Dalapati, Trisha; Alway, Emily J; Mantri, Sneha; Mitchell, Phillip; George, Ian A; Kaplan, Samantha; Andolsek, Kathryn M; Velkey, J Matthew; Lawson, Jennifer; Muzyk, Andrew J
Introduction
Due to the health consequences arising from climate change, medical students will inevitably interact with affected patients during their training and careers. Accordingly, medical schools must incorporate education on the impacts of climate change on health and equity into their curricula. We created a curricular thread called "Climate Change, Health, and Equity" in the first-year preclinical medical program to teach foundational concepts and foster self-reflection and critical consciousness.
Methods
The authors developed a continuum of practice including administrators, educators and faculty members, students, and community partners to plan and design curricular activities. First-year medical students at Duke University School of Medicine participated in seven mandatory foundational lectures and two experiential learning opportunities in the local community. Following completion of activities, students wrote a critical reflection essay and completed a self-directed learning exercise. Essays were evaluated using the REFLECT rubric to assess if students achieved critical reflection and for thematic analysis by Bloom's Taxonomy.
Results
All students (118) submitted essays. A random sample of 30 (25%) essays underwent analysis. Evaluation by the REFLECT rubric underscored that all students were reflecting or critically reflecting on thread content. Thematic analysis highlighted that all students (30/30, 100%) were adept at identifying new areas of medical knowledge and connecting concepts to individual experiences, institutional practices, and public health and policy. Most students (27/30; 90%) used emotionally laden words, expressing negative feelings like frustration and fear but also positive sentiments of solidarity and hope regarding climate change and effects on health. Many students (24/30; 80%) expressed actionable items at every level including continuing self-directed learning and conversing with patients, minimizing healthcare waste, and advocating for climate-friendly policies.
Conclusion
After participating in the curricular thread, most medical students reflected on cognitive, affective, and actionable aspects relating to climate change, health, and equity.
Open Access
Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia.
(PloS one, 2015-01) Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia; Pimm, Stuart L
Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species' ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800 m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800 m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400 m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species' elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species' elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.
Open Access
Environmental Economics. Using and improving the social cost of carbon.
(Science, 2014-12-05) Wiener, J
Open Access
Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation.
(PLoS One, 2015) Sills, Erin O; Herrera, Diego; Kirkpatrick, A Justin; Brandão, Amintas; Dickson, Rebecca; Hall, Simon; Pattanayak, Subhrendu; Shoch, David; Vedoveto, Mariana; Young, Luisa; Pfaff, Alexander
Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts' selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal "blacklist" that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that are implemented in just a few locations.
Restricted
Genomic signatures of near-extinction and rebirth of the crested ibis and other endangered bird species
(GENOME BIOLOGY, 2014) Li, Shengbin; Li, Bo; Cheng, Cheng; Xiong, Zijun; Liu, Qingbo; Lai, Jianghua; Carey, Hannah V; Zhang, Qiong; Zheng, Haibo; Wei, Shuguang; Zhang, Hongbo; Chang, Liao; Liu, Shiping; Zhang, Shanxin; Yu, Bing; Zeng, Xiaofan; Hou, Yong; Nie, Wenhui; Guo, Youmin; Chen, Teng; Han, Jiuqiang; Wang, Jian; Wang, Jun; Chen, Chen; Liu, Jiankang; Stambrook, Peter J; Xu, Ming; Zhang, Guojie; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Yang, Huanming; Jarvis, Erich D; Yu, Jun; Yan, Jianqun
BACKGROUND: Nearly one-quarter of all avian species is either threatened or nearly threatened. Of these, 73 species are currently being rescued from going extinct in wildlife sanctuaries. One of the previously most critically-endangered is the crested ibis, Nipponia nippon. Once widespread across North-East Asia, by 1981 only seven individuals from two breeding pairs remained in the wild. The recovering crested ibis populations thus provide an excellent example for conservation genomics since every individual bird has been recruited for genomic and demographic studies. RESULTS: Using high-quality genome sequences of multiple crested ibis individuals, its thriving co-habitant, the little egret, Egretta garzetta, and the recently sequenced genomes of 41 other avian species that are under various degrees of survival threats, including the bald eagle, we carry out comparative analyses for genomic signatures of near extinction events in association with environmental and behavioral attributes of species. We confirm that both loss of genetic diversity and enrichment of deleterious mutations of protein-coding genes contribute to the major genetic defects of the endangered species. We further identify that genetic inbreeding and loss-of-function genes in the crested ibis may all constitute genetic susceptibility to other factors including long-term climate change, over-hunting, and agrochemical overuse. We also establish a genome-wide DNA identification platform for molecular breeding and conservation practices, to facilitate sustainable recovery of endangered species. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate common genomic signatures of population decline across avian species and pave a way for further effort in saving endangered species and enhancing conservation genomic efforts.
Open Access
Global air quality and health co-benefits of mitigating near-term climate change through methane and black carbon emission controls.
(Environ Health Perspect, 2012-06) Anenberg, Susan C; Schwartz, Joel; Shindell, Drew; Amann, Markus; Faluvegi, Greg; Klimont, Zbigniew; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Pozzoli, Luca; Van Dingenen, Rita; Vignati, Elisabetta; Emberson, Lisa; Muller, Nicholas Z; West, J Jason; Williams, Martin; Demkine, Volodymyr; Hicks, W Kevin; Kuylenstierna, Johan; Raes, Frank; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran
BACKGROUND: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM(2.5)), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. OBJECTIVES: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years. METHODS: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM(2.5) and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM(2.5)- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions. RESULTS: We estimated that, for PM(2.5) and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM(2.5) relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.
Open Access
Hidden Loss of Wetlands in China.
(Current biology : CB, 2019-09) Xu, Weihua; Fan, Xinyue; Ma, Jungai; Pimm, Stuart L; Kong, Lingqiao; Zeng, Yuan; Li, Xiaosong; Xiao, Yi; Zheng, Hua; Liu, Jianguo; Wu, Bingfang; An, Li; Zhang, Lu; Wang, Xiaoke; Ouyang, Zhiyun
To counter their widespread loss, global aspirations are for no net loss of remaining wetlands [1]. We examine whether this goal alone is sufficient for managing China's wetlands, for they constitute 10% of the world's total. Analyzing wetland changes between 2000 and 2015 using 30-m-resolution satellite images, we show that China's wetlands expanded by 27,614 km² but lost 26,066 km²-a net increase of 1,548 km² (or 0.4%). This net change hides considerable complexities in the types of wetlands created and destroyed. The area of open water surface increased by 9,110 km², but natural wetlands-henceforth "marshes"-decreased by 7,562 km². Of the expanded wetlands, restoration policies contributed 24.5% and dam construction contributed 20.8%. Climate change accounted for 23.6% but is likely to involve a transient increase due to melting glaciers. Of the lost wetlands, agricultural and urban expansion contributed 47.7% and 13.8%, respectively. The increase in wetlands from conservation efforts (6,765 km²) did not offset human-caused wetland losses (16,032 km²). The wetland changes may harm wildlife. The wetland loss in east China threatens bird migration across eastern Asia [2]. Open water from dam construction flooded the original habitats of threatened terrestrial species and affected aquatic species by fragmenting wetland habitats [3]. Thus, the "no net loss" target measures total changes without considering changes in composition and the corresponding ecological functions. It may result in "paper offsets" and should be used carefully as a target for wetland conservation.
Open Access
Implications of shale gas development for climate change.
(Environ Sci Technol, 2014) Newell, Richard G; Raimi, Daniel
Advances in technologies for extracting oil and gas from shale formations have dramatically increased U.S. production of natural gas. As production expands domestically and abroad, natural gas prices will be lower than without shale gas. Lower prices have two main effects: increasing overall energy consumption, and encouraging substitution away from sources such as coal, nuclear, renewables, and electricity. We examine the evidence and analyze modeling projections to understand how these two dynamics affect greenhouse gas emissions. Most evidence indicates that natural gas as a substitute for coal in electricity production, gasoline in transport, and electricity in buildings decreases greenhouse gases, although as an electricity substitute this depends on the electricity mix displaced. Modeling suggests that absent substantial policy changes, increased natural gas production slightly increases overall energy use, more substantially encourages fuel-switching, and that the combined effect slightly alters economy wide GHG emissions; whether the net effect is a slight decrease or increase depends on modeling assumptions including upstream methane emissions. Our main conclusions are that natural gas can help reduce GHG emissions, but in the absence of targeted climate policy measures, it will not substantially change the course of global GHG concentrations. Abundant natural gas can, however, help reduce the costs of achieving GHG reduction goals.
Open Access
Increased labor losses and decreased adaptation potential in a warmer world.
(Nature communications, 2021-12) Parsons, Luke A; Shindell, Drew; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Zhang, Yuqiang; Spector, June T
Working in hot and potentially humid conditions creates health and well-being risks that will increase as the planet warms. It has been proposed that workers could adapt to increasing temperatures by moving labor from midday to cooler hours. Here, we use reanalysis data to show that in the current climate approximately 30% of global heavy labor losses in the workday could be recovered by moving labor from the hottest hours of the day. However, we show that this particular workshift adaptation potential is lost at a rate of about 2% per degree of global warming as early morning heat exposure rises to unsafe levels for continuous work, with worker productivity losses accelerating under higher warming levels. These findings emphasize the importance of finding alternative adaptation mechanisms to keep workers safe, as well as the importance of limiting global warming.
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Indigenous lands, protected areas, and slowing climate change.
(PLoS Biol, 2010-03-16) Ricketts, Taylor H; Soares-Filho, Britaldo; da Fonseca, Gustavo AB; Nepstad, Daniel; Pfaff, Alexander; Petsonk, Annie; Anderson, Anthony; Boucher, Doug; Cattaneo, Andrea; Conte, Marc; Creighton, Ken; Linden, Lawrence; Maretti, Claudio; Moutinho, Paulo; Ullman, Roger; Victurine, Ray
Recent climate talks in Copenhagen reaffirmed the crucial role of reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD). Creating and strengthening indigenous lands and other protected areas represents an effective, practical, and immediate REDD strategy that addresses both biodiversity and climate crises at once.
Unknown
Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests.
(Science (New York, N.Y.), 2020-05-21) Sullivan, Martin JP; Lewis, Simon L; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Castilho, Carolina; Costa, Flávia; Sanchez, Aida Cuni; Ewango, Corneille EN; Hubau, Wannes; Marimon, Beatriz; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Qie, Lan; Sonké, Bonaventure; Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez; Baker, Timothy R; Brienen, Roel JW; Feldpausch, Ted R; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; Alexiades, Miguel N; Almeida, Everton C; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; Dávila, Esteban Álvarez; Loayza, Patricia Alvarez; Andrade, Ana; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Aragão, Luiz EOC; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric JMM; Arroyo, Luzmila; Ashton, Peter; Aymard C, Gerardo; Baccaro, Fabrício B; Banin, Lindsay F; Baraloto, Christopher; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Barlow, Jos; Barroso, Jorcely; Bastin, Jean-François; Batterman, Sarah A; Beeckman, Hans; Begne, Serge K; Bennett, Amy C; Berenguer, Erika; Berry, Nicholas; Blanc, Lilian; Boeckx, Pascal; Bogaert, Jan; Bonal, Damien; Bongers, Frans; Bradford, Matt; Brearley, Francis Q; Brncic, Terry; Brown, Foster; Burban, Benoit; Camargo, José Luís; Castro, Wendeson; Céron, Carlos; Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto; Moscoso, Victor Chama; Chave, Jerôme; Chezeaux, Eric; Clark, Connie J; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Collins, Murray; Comiskey, James A; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Medina, Massiel Corrales; da Costa, Lola; Dančák, Martin; Dargie, Greta C; Davies, Stuart; Cardozo, Nallaret Davila; de Haulleville, Thales; de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon; Derroire, Géraldine; Di Fiore, Anthony; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Dourdain, Aurélie; Droissart, Vincent; Duque, Luisa Fernanda; Ekoungoulou, Romeo; Elias, Fernando; Erwin, Terry; Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane; Fauset, Sophie; Ferreira, Joice; Llampazo, Gerardo Flores; Foli, Ernest; Ford, Andrew; Gilpin, Martin; Hall, Jefferson S; Hamer, Keith C; Hamilton, Alan C; Harris, David J; Hart, Terese B; Hédl, Radim; Herault, Bruno; Herrera, Rafael; Higuchi, Niro; Hladik, Annette; Coronado, Eurídice Honorio; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Huasco, Walter Huaraca; Jeffery, Kathryn J; Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana; Kalamandeen, Michelle; Djuikouo, Marie Noël Kamdem; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi; Kho, Lip Khoon; Killeen, Timothy; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Klitgaard, Bente; Koch, Alexander; Labrière, Nicolas; Laurance, William; Laurance, Susan; Leal, Miguel E; Levesley, Aurora; Lima, Adriano JN; Lisingo, Janvier; Lopes, Aline P; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Lovejoy, Tom; Lovett, Jon C; Lowe, Richard; Magnusson, William E; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Manzatto, Ângelo Gilberto; Marimon, Ben Hur; Marshall, Andrew R; Marthews, Toby; de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias; Maycock, Colin; Melgaço, Karina; Mendoza, Casimiro; Metali, Faizah; Mihindou, Vianet; Milliken, William; Mitchard, Edward TA; Morandi, Paulo S; Mossman, Hannah L; Nagy, Laszlo; Nascimento, Henrique; Neill, David; Nilus, Reuben; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Palacios, Walter; Camacho, Nadir Pallqui; Peacock, Julie; Pendry, Colin; Peñuela Mora, Maria Cristina; Pickavance, Georgia C; Pipoly, John; Pitman, Nigel; Playfair, Maureen; Poorter, Lourens; Poulsen, John R; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Preziosi, Richard; Prieto, Adriana; Primack, Richard B; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Reitsma, Jan; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Correa, Zorayda Restrepo; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Bayona, Lily Rodriguez; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustín; Rutishauser, Ervan; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Salomão, Rafael P; Schietti, Juliana; Sheil, Douglas; Silva, Richarlly C; Espejo, Javier Silva; Valeria, Camila Silva; Silveira, Marcos; Simo-Droissart, Murielle; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Singh, James; Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos; Stahl, Clement; Stropp, Juliana; Sukri, Rahayu; Sunderland, Terry; Svátek, Martin; Swaine, Michael D; Swamy, Varun; Taedoumg, Hermann; Talbot, Joey; Taplin, James; Taylor, David; Ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Thomas, Sean C; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Umunay, Peter; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; van der Heijden, Geertje; van der Hout, Peter; van der Meer, Peter; van Nieuwstadt, Mark; Verbeeck, Hans; Vernimmen, Ronald; Vicentini, Alberto; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Vleminckx, Jason; Vos, Vincent; Wang, Ophelia; White, Lee JT; Willcock, Simon; Woods, John T; Wortel, Verginia; Young, Kenneth; Zagt, Roderick; Zemagho, Lise; Zuidema, Pieter A; Zwerts, Joeri A; Phillips, Oliver L
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.
Open Access
Reconciling oil palm expansion and climate change mitigation in Kalimantan, Indonesia.
(PloS one, 2015-01) Austin, Kemen G; Kasibhatla, Prasad S; Urban, Dean L; Stolle, Fred; Vincent, Jeffrey
Our society faces the pressing challenge of increasing agricultural production while minimizing negative consequences on ecosystems and the global climate. Indonesia, which has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation while doubling production of several major agricultural commodities, exemplifies this challenge. Here we focus on palm oil, the world's most abundant vegetable oil and a commodity that has contributed significantly to Indonesia's economy. Most oil palm expansion in the country has occurred at the expense of forests, resulting in significant GHG emissions. We examine the extent to which land management policies can resolve the apparently conflicting goals of oil palm expansion and GHG mitigation in Kalimantan, a major oil palm growing region of Indonesia. Using a logistic regression model to predict the locations of new oil palm between 2010 and 2020 we evaluate the impacts of six alternative policy scenarios on future emissions. We estimate net emissions of 128.4-211.4 MtCO2 yr(-1) under business as usual expansion of oil palm plantations. The impact of diverting new plantations to low carbon stock land depends on the design of the policy. We estimate that emissions can be reduced by 9-10% by extending the current moratorium on new concessions in primary forests and peat lands, 35% by limiting expansion on all peat and forestlands, 46% by limiting expansion to areas with moderate carbon stocks, and 55-60% by limiting expansion to areas with low carbon stocks. Our results suggest that these policies would reduce oil palm profits only moderately but would vary greatly in terms of cost-effectiveness of emissions reductions. We conclude that a carefully designed and implemented oil palm expansion plan can contribute significantly towards Indonesia's national emissions mitigation goal, while allowing oil palm area to double.

Browsing by Subject "Climate Change"

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