Browsing by Subject "Climate Modeling"
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Item Open Access Embedding Climate Change in Strategic Investment Decision-Making: Developing a Global Timber Resource Constraint Under Climate Scenarios(2020-04-24) Jia, Fanqi; Lam, Rosanne; Monsarrat, Julia; Tan, Cai MayClimate change is a growing risk to the private sector. Research has shown that today’s financial assets at risk from climate change total between US$2.5 trillion and $24.2 trillion by 2100 . To mitigate this, our client, Ortec Finance, provides information to their clients on the macro-economic risks from climate change to inform their investment decisions. Our team helped Ortec Finance refine their Systemic Climate Risk-Aware Scenarios Sets by developing a natural resource constraint for the forestry sector to improve the accuracy of GDP impact projections. We worked with our strategic research partner, CICERO, to produce impact functions that showcase micro-economic changes in regional forest product markets under different climate scenarios. Our team developed a methodology and compiled a robust dataset capturing changes in available timber volume in country-level planted forests under baseline, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Available timber volume in temperate forests is predicted to increase under RCP2.6 compared to baseline. We also demonstrate that under RCP2.6, some regions experience an increase in forest product price and production value. These regions include Africa, Eastern Asia and Latin America after adjusting for changes in economic value and demand.Item Open Access Mechanistic Habitat Modeling with Multi-Model Climate Ensembles(2013-04-25) Jones, HunterProjections of future Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) were prepared using a 13-member ensemble of climate model output from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Three climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5), corresponding to low, moderate, and high climate change possibilities, were used to generate these projections for known Harp Seal whelping locations. The projections were splined and statistically downscaled via the CCAFS Delta method using satellite-derived observations from the National Sea Ice Data Center (NSIDC) to prepare a spatial representation of sea ice decline through the year 2100. Multi-Model Ensemble projections of the mean sea ice concentration anomaly for Harp Seal whelping locations under the moderate and high climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) show a decline of 10% to 40% by 2100 from a modern baseline climatology (average of SIC, 1988 - 2005) while sea ice concentrations under the low climate change scenario remain fairly stable. Projected year-over-year sea ice concentration variability decreases with time through 2100, but uncertainty in the prediction (model spread) increases. The general decline in sea ice projected by climate models is detrimental to Harp Seal survival, but the effect of the decreased year-over-year variability is less certain.