Browsing by Subject "Costs and Cost Analysis"
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Item Open Access An evaluation of patient self-testing competency of prothrombin time for managing anticoagulation: pre-randomization results of VA Cooperative Study #481--The Home INR Study (THINRS).(Journal of thrombosis and thrombolysis, 2010-10) Dolor, Rowena J; Ruybalid, R Lynne; Uyeda, Lauren; Edson, Robert G; Phibbs, Ciaran; Vertrees, Julia E; Shih, Mei-Chiung; Jacobson, Alan K; Matchar, David B; THINRS Site InvestigatorsPrior studies suggest patient self-testing (PST) of prothrombin time (PT) can improve the quality of anticoagulation (AC) and reduce complications (e.g., bleeding and thromboembolic events). "The Home INR Study" (THINRS) compared AC management with frequent PST using a home monitoring device to high-quality AC management (HQACM) with clinic-based monitoring on major health outcomes. A key clinical and policy question is whether and which patients can successfully use such devices. We report the results of Part 1 of THINRS in which patients and caregivers were evaluated for their ability to perform PST. Study-eligible patients (n = 3643) were trained to use the home monitoring device and evaluated after 2-4 weeks for PST competency. Information about demographics, medical history, warfarin use, medications, plus measures of numeracy, literacy, cognition, dexterity, and satisfaction with AC were collected. Approximately 80% (2931 of 3643) of patients trained on PST demonstrated competency; of these, 8% (238) required caregiver assistance. Testers who were not competent to perform PST had higher numbers of practice attempts, higher cuvette wastage, and were less able to perform a fingerstick or obtain blood for the cuvette in a timely fashion. Factors associated with failure to pass PST training included increased age, previous stroke history, poor cognition, and poor manual dexterity. A majority of patients were able to perform PST. Successful home monitoring of PT with a PST device required adequate levels of cognition and manual dexterity. Training a caregiver modestly increased the proportion of patients who can perform PST.Item Open Access Bundled Payment and Care of Acute Stroke: What Does it Take to Make it Work?(Stroke, 2015-05) Matchar, David Bruce; Nguyen, Hai V; Tian, YuanItem Open Access Burning a hole in the budget: tobacco spending and its crowd-out of other goods.(Appl Health Econ Health Policy, 2004) Busch, Susan H; Jofre-Bonet, Mireia; Falba, Tracy A; Sindelar, Jody LSmoking is an expensive habit. Smoking households spend, on average, more than $US1000 annually on cigarettes. When a family member quits, in addition to the former smoker's improved long-term health, families benefit because savings from reduced cigarette expenditures can be allocated to other goods. For households in which some members continue to smoke, smoking expenditures crowd-out other purchases, which may affect other household members, as well as the smoker. We empirically analyse how expenditures on tobacco crowd-out consumption of other goods, estimating the patterns of substitution and complementarity between tobacco products and other categories of household expenditure. We use the Consumer Expenditure Survey data for the years 1995-2001, which we complement with regional price data and state cigarette prices. We estimate a consumer demand system that includes several main expenditure categories (cigarettes, food, alcohol, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care) and controls for socioeconomic variables and other sources of observable heterogeneity. Descriptive data indicate that, comparing smokers to nonsmokers, smokers spend less on housing. Results from the demand system indicate that as the price of cigarettes rises, households increase the quantity of food purchased, and, in some samples, reduce the quantity of apparel and housing purchased.Item Open Access Cost efficiency of anticoagulation with warfarin to prevent stroke in medicare beneficiaries with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.(Stroke, 2011-01) Mercaldi, Catherine J; Ciarametaro, Mike; Hahn, Beth; Chalissery, George; Reynolds, Matthew W; Sander, Stephen D; Samsa, Gregory P; Matchar, David BBackground and purpose
in controlled trials, anticoagulation with warfarin reduces stroke risk by nearly two thirds, but the benefit has been less pronounced in clinical practice. This report describes the extent of warfarin use, its effectiveness, and its impact on medical costs among Medicare patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.Methods
using claims from >2 million beneficiaries in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services 5% Sample Standard Analytic Files, we identified patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation from 2004 to 2005. Warfarin use was inferred from 3 or more tests of the international normalized ratio within 1 year. Incidence of ischemic/hemorrhagic stroke and major bleeding was evaluated. Adjusted risk was calculated by Cox proportional-hazards regression. Medical costs (reimbursed amounts in 2006 US dollars) were estimated by multivariate linear regression.Results
of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (N=119 764, mean age=79.3 years), 58.5% were categorized as warfarin users based on the study definition. During an average of 2.1 years' follow-up, the rate of ischemic stroke was 3.9 per 100 patient-years. After multivariate adjustment, ischemic stroke incidence was 27% lower in patients taking warfarin than in patients not taking warfarin (P<0.0001), with no increase in hemorrhagic stroke and a slightly elevated risk of a major bleed. Use of warfarin was independently associated with lower total medical costs, averaging $9836 per patient per year.Conclusions
these results indicate that 41.5% of Medicare patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation are not anticoagulated with warfarin. The incidence of stroke and overall medical costs were significantly lower in patients treated with warfarin.Item Open Access Cost of capital to the hospital sector.(J Health Econ, 1988-03) Sloan, FA; Valvona, J; Hassan, M; Morrisey, MAThis paper provides estimates of the cost of equity and debt capital to for-profit and non-profit hospitals in the U.S. for the years 1972-83. The cost of equity is estimated using, alternatively, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We find that the cost of equity capital, using either model, substantially exceeded anticipated inflation. The cost of debt capital was much lower. Accounting for the corporate tax shield on debt and capital paybacks by cost-based insurers lowered the net cost of capital to hospitals.Item Open Access Cost of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry.(J Health Econ, 1991-07) DiMasi, JA; Hansen, RW; Grabowski, HG; Lasagna, LThe research and development costs of 93 randomly selected new chemical entities (NCEs) were obtained from a survey of 12 U.S.-owned pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the pre-tax average cost of new drug development. The costs of abandoned NCEs were linked to the costs of NCEs that obtained marketing approval. For base case parameter values, the estimated out-of-pocket cost per approved NCE is $114 million (1987 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a 9% discount rate yielded an average cost estimate of $231 million (1987 dollars).Item Open Access Data Sharing at a Crossroads.(N Engl J Med, 2016-09-22) Rockhold, Frank; Nisen, Perry; Freeman, AndrewItem Open Access Diagnosis-Related Group-Based Payments for Adult Spine Deformity Surgery Significantly Vary across Centers: Results from a Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.(World neurosurgery, 2023-03) Yeramaneni, Samrat; Wang, Kevin; Gum, Jeffrey; Line, Breton; Jain, Amit; Kebaish, Khaled; Shaffrey, Christopher; Smith, Justin S; Lafage, Virginie; Schwab, Frank; Passias, Peter; Hamilton, D Kojo; Klineberg, Eric; Ames, Christopher; Burton, Douglas; Bess, Shay; Hostin, RichardBackground
To investigate the variation in total episode-of-care (EOC) payment and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain for complex adult spine deformity surgeries in the United States, adjusting for case type and surgeon preferences.Methods
Patients aged >18 years with adult spine deformity with Medicare Severity-Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) 453-460 and a minimum of 2 years of follow-up from index surgery were included. Index and total payments were calculated using Medicare's Inpatient Prospective Payment System. All costs were adjusted for inflation to 2020 U.S. dollar values. QALYs gained were calculated using baseline, 1-year, and 2-year Short-Form 6D scores. Mixed-effect models were used to estimate the proportion of variation in total EOC payment and QALY gain.Results
A total of 330/543 patients from 6 sites were included. Mean age was 62.4 ± 11.9 years, 79% were women, and 92% were white. The mean index and total EOC payment were $77,302 and $93,182, respectively. Patients gained on average 0.15 QALY (P < 0.0001) 2 years after surgery. In unadjusted analysis, 39% of the variation in total EOC payment across the 6 centers was attributable to relative weight of DRG and base rate. Adjusting for patient and procedural factors increased the proportion of variation in total EOC payments across the centers to 56%. Less than 2% of the variation in QALY gain was observed across the 6 centers.Conclusions
Medicare-based payments for complex spine deformity fusions are primarily driven by relative weight of the DRG and the hospital's base rate. Patient and procedural factors are unaccounted for in the DRG-based payments made to the providers.Item Open Access Does Medicaid pay more to a program of all-inclusive care for the elderly (PACE) than for fee-for-service long-term care?(J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci, 2013-01) Wieland, Darryl; Kinosian, Bruce; Stallard, Eric; Boland, RebeccaBACKGROUND: In rebalancing from nursing homes (NHs), states are increasing access of NH-certified dually eligible (Medicare/Medicaid) patients to community waiver programs and Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Prior evaluations suggest Medicaid's PACE capitation exceeds its spending for comparable admissions in alternative care, although the latter may be underestimated. We test whether Medicaid payments to PACE are lower than predicted fee-for-service outlays in a long-term care admission cohort. METHODS: Using grade-of-membership methods, we model health deficits for dual eligibles aged 55 or more entering waiver, PACE, and NH in South Carolina (n = 3,988). Clinical types, membership vectors, and program type prevalences are estimated. We calculate a blend, fitting PACE between fee-for-service cohorts, whose postadmission 1-year utilization was converted to attrition-adjusted outlays. PACE's capitation is compared with blend-based expenditure predictions. RESULTS: Four clinical types describe population health deficits/service needs. The waiver cohort is most represented in the least impaired type (1: 47.1%), NH entrants in the most disabled (4: 38.5%). Most prevalent in PACE was a dementia type, 3 (32.7%). PACE's blend was waiver: 0.5602 (95% CI: 0.5472, 0.5732) and NH: 0.4398 (0.4268, 0.4528). Average Medicaid attrition-adjusted 1-year payments for waiver and NH were $4,177 and $77,945. The mean predicted cost for PACE patients in alternative long-term care was $36,620 ($35,662 and $37,580). PACE's Medicaid capitation was $27,648-28% below the lower limit of predicted fee-for-service payments. CONCLUSIONS: PACE's capitation was well under outlays for equivalent patients in alternative care-a substantial savings for Medicaid. Our methods provide a rate-setting element for PACE and other managed long-term care.Item Open Access Economic evaluation of telephone self-management interventions for blood pressure control.(American heart journal, 2012-06) Wang, Virginia; Smith, Valerie A; Bosworth, Hayden B; Oddone, Eugene Z; Olsen, Maren K; McCant, Felicia; Powers, Benjamin J; Van Houtven, Courtney HaroldBackground
Half of patients with hypertension have poor blood pressure (BP) control. Recent models for treating hypertension have integrated disease monitoring and telephone-based interventions delivered in patients' homes. This study evaluated the costs of the Hypertension Intervention Nurse Telemedicine Study (HINTS), aimed to improve BP control in veterans.Methods
Eligible veterans were randomized to either usual care or 1 of 3 telephone-based intervention groups using home BP telemonitoring: (1) behavioral management, (2) medication management, or (3) combined. Intervention costs were derived from information collected during the trial. Direct medical costs (inpatient, outpatient, and outpatient pharmacy, including hypertension-specific pharmacy) at 18 months by group were calculated using Veterans Affairs (VA) Decision Support System data. Bootstrapped CIs were computed to compare intervention and medical costs between intervention groups and usual care.Results
Patients receiving behavior or medication management showed significant gains in BP control at 12 months; there were no differences in BP control at 18 months. In subgroup analysis, patients with poor baseline BP control receiving combined intervention significantly improved BP at 12 and 18 months. In overall and subgroup samples, average intervention costs were similar in the 3 study arms, and at 18 months, there were no statistically significant differences in direct VA medical costs or total VA costs between treatment arms and usual care.Conclusions
To optimize investment in telephone-based home interventions such as the HINTS, it is important to identify groups of patients who are most likely to benefit from more intensive home BP management.Item Open Access Economic return of clinical trials performed under the pediatric exclusivity program.(JAMA, 2007-02-07) Li, Jennifer; Eisenstein, Eric; Reid, Elizabeth; Mangum, Barry; Schulman, Kevin; Goldsmith, John; Murphy, M Dianne; Califf, Robert; Benjamin, Daniel; JrCONTEXT: In 1997, Congress authorized the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to grant 6-month extensions of marketing rights through the Pediatric Exclusivity Program if industry sponsors complete FDA-requested pediatric trials. The program has been praised for creating incentives for studies in children and has been criticized as a "windfall" to the innovator drug industry. This critique has been a substantial part of congressional debate on the program, which is due to expire in 2007. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the economic return to industry for completing pediatric exclusivity trials. DESIGN AND SETTING: A cohort study of programs conducted for pediatric exclusivity. Nine drugs that were granted pediatric exclusivity were selected. From the final study reports submitted to the FDA (2002-2004), key elements of the clinical trial design and study operations were obtained, and the cost of performing each study was estimated and converted into estimates of after-tax cash outflows. Three-year market sales were obtained and converted into estimates of after-tax cash inflows based on 6 months of additional market protection. Net economic return (cash inflows minus outflows) and net return-to-costs ratio (net economic return divided by cash outflows) for each product were then calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Net economic return and net return-to-cost ratio. RESULTS: The indications studied reflect a broad representation of the program: asthma, tumors, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, hypertension, depression/generalized anxiety disorder, diabetes mellitus, gastroesophageal reflux, bacterial infection, and bone mineralization. The distribution of net economic return for 6 months of exclusivity varied substantially among products (net economic return ranged from -$8.9 million to $507.9 million and net return-to-cost ratio ranged from -0.68 to 73.63). CONCLUSIONS: The economic return for pediatric exclusivity is variable. As an incentive to complete much-needed clinical trials in children, pediatric exclusivity can generate lucrative returns or produce more modest returns on investment.Item Open Access Effects of teaching on hospital costs.(J Health Econ, 1983-03) Sloan, FA; Feldman, RD; Steinwald, ABThis study estimates effects of undergraduate and graduate medical education on hospital costs, using a national sample of 367 U.S. community hospitals observed in 1974 and 1977. Data on other cost determinants, such as casemix, allow us to isolate the influence of teaching with greater precision than most previous studies. Non-physician expense in major teaching hospitals is at most 20 percent higher than in non-teaching hospitals; the teaching effect is about half this for hospitals with more limited teaching programs. Results for ancillary service departments are consistent with those for the hospital as a whole.Item Open Access Fish is food--the FAO's fish price index.(PLoS One, 2012) Tveterås, Sigbjørn; Asche, Frank; Bellemare, Marc F; Smith, Martin D; Guttormsen, Atle G; Lem, Audun; Lien, Kristin; Vannuccini, StefaniaWorld food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations-which compiles prices for other major food categories-has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of global seafood prices that can help to understand food crises and may assist in averting them. The fish price index (FPI) relies on trade statistics because seafood is heavily traded internationally, exposing non-traded seafood to price competition from imports and exports. Easily updated trade data can thus proxy for domestic seafood prices that are difficult to observe in many regions and costly to update with global coverage. Calculations of the extent of price competition in different countries support the plausibility of reliance on trade data. Overall, the FPI shows less volatility and fewer price spikes than other food price indices including oils, cereals, and dairy. The FPI generally reflects seafood scarcity, but it can also be separated into indices by production technology, fish species, or region. Splitting FPI into capture fisheries and aquaculture suggests increased scarcity of capture fishery resources in recent years, but also growth in aquaculture that is keeping pace with demand. Regionally, seafood price volatility varies, and some prices are negatively correlated. These patterns hint that regional supply shocks are consequential for seafood prices in spite of the high degree of seafood tradability.Item Open Access Impact of case type, length of stay, institution type, and comorbidities on Medicare diagnosis-related group reimbursement for adult spinal deformity surgery.(Neurosurgical focus, 2017-12) Nunley, Pierce D; Mundis, Gregory M; Fessler, Richard G; Park, Paul; Zavatsky, Joseph M; Uribe, Juan S; Eastlack, Robert K; Chou, Dean; Wang, Michael Y; Anand, Neel; Frank, Kelly A; Stone, Marcus B; Kanter, Adam S; Shaffrey, Christopher I; Mummaneni, Praveen V; International Spine Study GroupOBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to educate medical professionals about potential financial impacts of improper diagnosis-related group (DRG) coding in adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery. METHODS Medicare's Inpatient Prospective Payment System PC Pricer database was used to collect 2015 reimbursement data for ASD procedures from 12 hospitals. Case type, hospital type/location, number of operative levels, proper coding, length of stay, and complications/comorbidities (CCs) were analyzed for effects on reimbursement. DRGs were used to categorize cases into 3 types: 1) anterior or posterior only fusion, 2) anterior fusion with posterior percutaneous fixation with no dorsal fusion, and 3) combined anterior and posterior fixation and fusion. RESULTS Pooling institutions, cases were reimbursed the same for single-level and multilevel ASD surgery. Longer stay, from 3 to 8 days, resulted in an additional $1400 per stay. Posterior fusion was an additional $6588, while CCs increased reimbursement by approximately $13,000. Academic institutions received higher reimbursement than private institutions, i.e., approximately $14,000 (Case Types 1 and 2) and approximately $16,000 (Case Type 3). Urban institutions received higher reimbursement than suburban institutions, i.e., approximately $3000 (Case Types 1 and 2) and approximately $3500 (Case Type 3). Longer stay, from 3 to 8 days, increased reimbursement between $208 and $494 for private institutions and between $1397 and $1879 for academic institutions per stay. CONCLUSIONS Reimbursement is based on many factors not controlled by surgeons or hospitals, but proper DRG coding can significantly impact the financial health of hospitals and availability of quality patient care.Item Open Access Reduced length of hospital stay in colorectal surgery after implementation of an enhanced recovery protocol.(Anesth Analg, 2014-05) Miller, TE; Thacker, JK; White, WD; Mantyh, C; Migaly, J; Jin, J; Roche, AM; Eisenstein, EL; Edwards, R; Anstrom, KJ; Moon, RE; Gan, TJBACKGROUND: Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) is a multimodal approach to perioperative care that combines a range of interventions to enable early mobilization and feeding after surgery. We investigated the feasibility, clinical effectiveness, and cost savings of an ERAS program at a major U. S. teaching hospital. METHODS: Data were collected from consecutive patients undergoing open or laparoscopic colorectal surgery during 2 time periods, before and after implementation of an ERAS protocol. Data collected included patient demographics, operative, and perioperative surgical and anesthesia data, need for analgesics, complications, inpatient medical costs, and 30-day readmission rates. RESULTS: There were 99 patients in the traditional care group, and 142 in the ERAS group. The median length of stay (LOS) was 5 days in the ERAS group compared with 7 days in the traditional group (P < 0.001). The reduction in LOS was significant for both open procedures (median 6 vs 7 days, P = 0.01), and laparoscopic procedures (4 vs 6 days, P < 0.0001). ERAS patients had fewer urinary tract infections (13% vs 24%, P = 0.03). Readmission rates were lower in ERAS patients (9.8% vs 20.2%, P = 0.02). DISCUSSION: Implementation of an enhanced recovery protocol for colorectal surgery at a tertiary medical center was associated with a significantly reduced LOS and incidence of urinary tract infection. This is consistent with that of other studies in the literature and suggests that enhanced recovery programs could be implemented successfully and should be considered in U.S. hospitals.Item Open Access Returns to R&D on new drug introductions in the 1980s.(J Health Econ, 1994-12) Grabowski, HG; Vernon, JMThis study finds that the mean IRR for 1980-84 U.S. new drug introductions is 11.1%, and the mean NPV is 22 million (1990 dollars). The distribution of returns is highly skewed. The results are robust to plausible changes in the baseline assumptions. Our work is also compared with a 1993 study by the OTA. Despite some important differences in assumptions, both studies imply that returns for the average NCE are within one percentage point of the industry's cost of capital. This is much less than what is typically observed in analyses based on accounting data.Item Open Access Spending on postapproval drug safety.(Health Aff (Millwood), 2006-03) Ridley, David; Kramer, Judith; Tilson, Hugh; Schulman, KevinWithdrawals of high-profile pharmaceuticals have focused attention on post-approval safety surveillance. There have been no systematic assessments of spending on postapproval safety. We surveyed drug manufacturers regarding safety efforts. Mean spending on postapproval safety per company in 2003 was 56 million dollars (0.3 percent of sales). Assuming a constant safety-to-sales ratio, we estimated that total spending on postapproval safety by the top twenty drug manufacturers was 800 million dollars in 2003. We also examined, using regression analysis, the relationship between the number of safety personnel and the number of initial adverse-event reports. This study offers information for the debate on proposed changes to safety surveillance.Item Open Access Telephone-based self-management of osteoarthritis: A randomized trial.(Annals of internal medicine, 2010-11) Allen, Kelli D; Oddone, Eugene Z; Coffman, Cynthia J; Datta, Santanu K; Juntilla, Karen A; Lindquist, Jennifer H; Walker, Tessa A; Weinberger, Morris; Bosworth, Hayden BBackground
Osteoarthritis is a leading cause of pain and disability, and self-management behaviors for osteoarthritis are underutilized.Objective
To examine the effectiveness of a telephone-based self-management intervention for hip or knee osteoarthritis in a primary care setting.Design
Randomized clinical trial with equal assignment to osteoarthritis self-management, health education (attention control), and usual care control groups. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00288912)Setting
Primary care clinics in a Veterans Affairs Medical Center.Patients
515 patients with symptomatic hip or knee osteoarthritis.Intervention
The osteoarthritis self-management intervention involved educational materials and 12 monthly telephone calls to support individualized goals and action plans. The health education intervention involved nonosteoarthritis educational materials and 12 monthly telephone calls related to general health screening topics.Measurements
The primary outcome was score on the Arthritis Impact Measurement Scales-2 pain subscale (range, 0 to 10). Pain was also assessed with a 10-cm visual analog scale. Measurements were collected at baseline and 12 months.Results
461 participants (90%) completed the 12-month assessment. The mean Arthritis Impact Measurement Scales-2 pain score in the osteoarthritis self-management group was 0.4 point lower (95% CI, -0.8 to 0.1 point; P = 0.105) than in the usual care group and 0.6 point lower (CI, -1.0 to -0.2 point; P = 0.007) than in the health education group at 12 months. The mean visual analog scale pain score in the osteoarthritis self-management group was 1.1 points lower (CI, -1.6 to -0.6 point; P < 0.001) than in the usual care group and 1.0 point lower (CI, -1.5 to -0.5 point; P < 0.001) than in the health education group. Health care use did not differ across the groups.Limitation
The study was conducted at 1 Veterans Affairs Medical Center, and the sample consisted primarily of men.Conclusion
A telephone-based osteoarthritis self-management program produced moderate improvements in pain, particularly compared with a health education control group.Primary funding source
U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Health Services Research and Development Service.Item Open Access The cost of visual impairment: purposes, perspectives, and guidance.(Investigative ophthalmology & visual science, 2010-04) Frick, Kevin D; Kymes, Steven M; Lee, Paul P; Matchar, David B; Pezzullo, M Lynne; Rein, David B; Taylor, Hugh R; Vancouver Economic Burden of Vision Loss GroupItem Open Access The distribution of sales revenues from pharmaceutical innovation.(Pharmacoeconomics, 2000) Grabowski, HG; Vernon, JOBJECTIVE: This report updates our earlier work on the returns to pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) in the US (1980 to 1984), which showed that the returns distributions are highly skewed. It evaluates a more recent cohort of new drug introductions in the US (1988 to 1992) and examines how the returns distribution is emerging for drugs with life cycles concentrated in the 1990s versus the 1980s. DESIGN AND SETTING: Methods were described in detail in our earlier reports. The current sample included 110 new drug entities (including 28 orphan drugs), and sales data were obtained for the period 1988 to 1998, which represented between 7 and 11 years of sales for the drugs included. 20 years was chosen as the expected market life for this cohort, and a 2-step procedure was used to project future sales for the drugs--during the period until patent expiry and then beyond patent expiry until the 20-year time-horizon was completed. Thus, the values in the first half of the life cycle are essentially based on realised sales, while those in the second half are projected using information on patent expiry and other inputs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS: Peak annual sales for the top decile of drugs introduced between 1988 and 1992 in the US amounted to almost $US1.1 billion compared with peak sales of less than $US175 million (1992 values) for the mean compound. In particular, the top decile accounted for 56% of overall sales revenue. Although the sales distributions were skewed in both our earlier and current analysis, the top decile in the later time-period exhibited more rapid rates of growth after launch, a peak that was more than 50% greater in real terms than for the 1980 to 1984 cohort, and a faster rate of expected decline in sales after patent expiry. One factor contributing to the distribution of sales revenues becoming more skewed over time is the orphan drug phenomenon (i.e. most of the orphan drugs are concentrated at the bottom of the distribution). CONCLUSION: The distribution of sales revenues for new drug compounds is highly skewed in nature. In this regard, the top decile of new drugs accounts for more than half of the total sales generated by the 1988 to 1992 cohort analysed. Furthermore, the distribution of sales revenues for this cohort is more skewed than that of the 1980 to 1984 cohort we analysed in previous research.