Browsing by Subject "Extinction, Biological"
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Item Open Access Do asexual polyploid lineages lead short evolutionary lives? A case study from the fern genus Astrolepis.(Evolution; international journal of organic evolution, 2011-11) Beck, JB; Windham, MD; Pryer, KMA life-history transition to asexuality is typically viewed as leading to a heightened extinction risk, and a number of studies have evaluated this claim by examining the relative ages of asexual versus closely related sexual lineages. Surprisingly, a rigorous assessment of the age of an asexual plant lineage has never been published, although asexuality is extraordinarily common among plants. Here, we estimate the ages of sexual diploids and asexual polyploids in the fern genus Astrolepis using a well-supported plastid phylogeny and a relaxed-clock dating approach. The 50 asexual polyploid samples we included were conservatively estimated to comprise 19 distinct lineages, including a variety of auto- and allopolyploid genomic combinations. All were either the same age or younger than the crown group comprising their maternal sexual-diploid parents based simply on their phylogenetic position. Node ages estimated with the relaxed-clock approach indicated that the average maximum age of asexual lineages was 0.4 My, and individual lineages were on average 7 to 47 times younger than the crown- and total-ages of their sexual parents. Although the confounding association between asexuality and polyploidy precludes definite conclusions regarding the effect of asexuality, our results suggest that asexuality limits evolutionary potential in Astrolepis.Item Open Access Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction.(Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, 2015-04) De Vos, Jurriaan M; Joppa, Lucas N; Gittleman, John L; Stephens, Patrick R; Pimm, Stuart LA key measure of humanity's global impact is by how much it has increased species extinction rates. Familiar statements are that these are 100-1000 times pre-human or background extinction levels. Estimating recent rates is straightforward, but establishing a background rate for comparison is not. Previous researchers chose an approximate benchmark of 1 extinction per million species per year (E/MSY). We explored disparate lines of evidence that suggest a substantially lower estimate. Fossil data yield direct estimates of extinction rates, but they are temporally coarse, mostly limited to marine hard-bodied taxa, and generally involve genera not species. Based on these data, typical background loss is 0.01 genera per million genera per year. Molecular phylogenies are available for more taxa and ecosystems, but it is debated whether they can be used to estimate separately speciation and extinction rates. We selected data to address known concerns and used them to determine median extinction estimates from statistical distributions of probable values for terrestrial plants and animals. We then created simulations to explore effects of violating model assumptions. Finally, we compiled estimates of diversification-the difference between speciation and extinction rates for different taxa. Median estimates of extinction rates ranged from 0.023 to 0.135 E/MSY. Simulation results suggested over- and under-estimation of extinction from individual phylogenies partially canceled each other out when large sets of phylogenies were analyzed. There was no evidence for recent and widespread pre-human overall declines in diversity. This implies that average extinction rates are less than average diversification rates. Median diversification rates were 0.05-0.2 new species per million species per year. On the basis of these results, we concluded that typical rates of background extinction may be closer to 0.1 E/MSY. Thus, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than natural background rates of extinction and future rates are likely to be 10,000 times higher.Item Restricted Genomic signatures of near-extinction and rebirth of the crested ibis and other endangered bird species(GENOME BIOLOGY, 2014) Li, Shengbin; Li, Bo; Cheng, Cheng; Xiong, Zijun; Liu, Qingbo; Lai, Jianghua; Carey, Hannah V; Zhang, Qiong; Zheng, Haibo; Wei, Shuguang; Zhang, Hongbo; Chang, Liao; Liu, Shiping; Zhang, Shanxin; Yu, Bing; Zeng, Xiaofan; Hou, Yong; Nie, Wenhui; Guo, Youmin; Chen, Teng; Han, Jiuqiang; Wang, Jian; Wang, Jun; Chen, Chen; Liu, Jiankang; Stambrook, Peter J; Xu, Ming; Zhang, Guojie; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Yang, Huanming; Jarvis, Erich D; Yu, Jun; Yan, JianqunBACKGROUND: Nearly one-quarter of all avian species is either threatened or nearly threatened. Of these, 73 species are currently being rescued from going extinct in wildlife sanctuaries. One of the previously most critically-endangered is the crested ibis, Nipponia nippon. Once widespread across North-East Asia, by 1981 only seven individuals from two breeding pairs remained in the wild. The recovering crested ibis populations thus provide an excellent example for conservation genomics since every individual bird has been recruited for genomic and demographic studies. RESULTS: Using high-quality genome sequences of multiple crested ibis individuals, its thriving co-habitant, the little egret, Egretta garzetta, and the recently sequenced genomes of 41 other avian species that are under various degrees of survival threats, including the bald eagle, we carry out comparative analyses for genomic signatures of near extinction events in association with environmental and behavioral attributes of species. We confirm that both loss of genetic diversity and enrichment of deleterious mutations of protein-coding genes contribute to the major genetic defects of the endangered species. We further identify that genetic inbreeding and loss-of-function genes in the crested ibis may all constitute genetic susceptibility to other factors including long-term climate change, over-hunting, and agrochemical overuse. We also establish a genome-wide DNA identification platform for molecular breeding and conservation practices, to facilitate sustainable recovery of endangered species. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate common genomic signatures of population decline across avian species and pave a way for further effort in saving endangered species and enhancing conservation genomic efforts.Item Open Access Incorporating explicit geospatial data shows more species at risk of extinction than the current Red List.(Science advances, 2016-11-09) Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia; Jenkins, Clinton N; Vijay, Varsha; Li, Binbin V; Pimm, Stuart LThe IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List classifies species according to their risk of extinction, informing global to local conservation decisions. Unfortunately, important geospatial data do not explicitly or efficiently enter this process. Rapid growth in the availability of remotely sensed observations provides fine-scale data on elevation and increasingly sophisticated characterizations of land cover and its changes. These data readily show that species are likely not present within many areas within the overall envelopes of their distributions. Additionally, global databases on protected areas inform how extensively ranges are protected. We selected 586 endemic and threatened forest bird species from six of the world's most biodiverse and threatened places (Atlantic Forest of Brazil, Central America, Western Andes of Colombia, Madagascar, Sumatra, and Southeast Asia). The Red List deems 18% of these species to be threatened (15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable). Inevitably, after refining ranges by elevation and forest cover, ranges shrink. Do they do so consistently? For example, refined ranges of critically endangered species might reduce by (say) 50% but so might the ranges of endangered, vulnerable, and nonthreatened species. Critically, this is not the case. We find that 43% of species fall below the range threshold where comparable species are deemed threatened. Some 210 bird species belong in a higher-threat category than the current Red List placement, including 189 species that are currently deemed nonthreatened. Incorporating readily available spatial data substantially increases the numbers of species that should be considered at risk and alters priority areas for conservation.Item Open Access Measuring Terrestrial Area of Habitat (AOH) and Its Utility for the IUCN Red List.(Trends in ecology & evolution, 2019-11) Brooks, Thomas M; Pimm, Stuart L; Akçakaya, H Resit; Buchanan, Graeme M; Butchart, Stuart HM; Foden, Wendy; Hilton-Taylor, Craig; Hoffmann, Michael; Jenkins, Clinton N; Joppa, Lucas; Li, Binbin V; Menon, Vivek; Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia; Rondinini, CarloThe International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species includes assessment of extinction risk for 98 512 species, plus documentation of their range, habitat, elevation, and other factors. These range, habitat and elevation data can be matched with terrestrial land cover and elevation datasets to map the species' area of habitat (AOH; also known as extent of suitable habitat; ESH). This differs from the two spatial metrics used for assessing extinction risk in the IUCN Red List criteria: extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO). AOH can guide conservation, for example, through targeting areas for field surveys, assessing proportions of species' habitat within protected areas, and monitoring habitat loss and fragmentation. We recommend that IUCN Red List assessments document AOH wherever practical.Item Open Access Predictions of primate-parasite coextinction.(Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 2021-11) Herrera, James P; Moody, James; Nunn, Charles LFuture biodiversity loss threatens the integrity of complex ecological associations, including among hosts and parasites. Almost half of primate species are threatened with extinction, and the loss of threatened hosts could negatively impact parasite associations and ecosystem functions. If endangered hosts are highly connected in host-parasite networks, then future host extinctions will also drive parasite extinctions, destabilizing ecological networks. If threatened hosts are not highly connected, however, then network structure should not be greatly affected by the loss of threatened hosts. Networks with high connectance, modularity, nestedness and robustness are more resilient to perturbations such as the loss of interactions than sparse, nonmodular and non-nested networks. We analysed the interaction network involving 213 primates and 763 parasites and removed threatened primates (114 species) to simulate the effects of extinction. Our analyses revealed that connections to 23% of primate parasites (176 species) may be lost if threatened primates go extinct. In addition, measures of network structure were affected, but in varying ways because threatened hosts have fewer parasite interactions than non-threatened hosts. These results reveal that host extinctions will perturb the host-parasite network and potentially lead to secondary extinctions of parasites. The ecological consequences of these extinctions remain unclear. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.Item Open Access Primate diversification inferred from phylogenies and fossils.(Evolution; international journal of organic evolution, 2017-12) Herrera, James PBiodiversity arises from the balance between speciation and extinction. Fossils record the origins and disappearance of organisms, and the branching patterns of molecular phylogenies allow estimation of speciation and extinction rates, but the patterns of diversification are frequently incongruent between these two data sources. I tested two hypotheses about the diversification of primates based on ∼600 fossil species and 90% complete phylogenies of living species: (1) diversification rates increased through time; (2) a significant extinction event occurred in the Oligocene. Consistent with the first hypothesis, analyses of phylogenies supported increasing speciation rates and negligible extinction rates. In contrast, fossils showed that while speciation rates increased, speciation and extinction rates tended to be nearly equal, resulting in zero net diversification. Partially supporting the second hypothesis, the fossil data recorded a clear pattern of diversity decline in the Oligocene, although diversification rates were near zero. The phylogeny supported increased extinction ∼34 Ma, but also elevated extinction ∼10 Ma, coinciding with diversity declines in some fossil clades. The results demonstrated that estimates of speciation and extinction ignoring fossils are insufficient to infer diversification and information on extinct lineages should be incorporated into phylogenetic analyses.Item Open Access Remotely Sensed Data Informs Red List Evaluations and Conservation Priorities in Southeast Asia.(PloS one, 2016-01) Li, Binbin V; Hughes, Alice C; Jenkins, Clinton N; Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia; Pimm, Stuart LThe IUCN Red List has assessed the global distributions of the majority of the world's amphibians, birds and mammals. Yet these assessments lack explicit reference to widely available, remotely-sensed data that can sensibly inform a species' risk of extinction. Our first goal is to add additional quantitative data to the existing standardised process that IUCN employs. Secondly, we ask: do our results suggest species of concern-those at considerably greater risk than hitherto appreciated? Thirdly, these assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis. By combining distributions of species of concern, we map conservation priorities. We ask to what degree these areas are currently protected and how might knowledge from remote sensing modify the priorities? Finally, we develop a quick and simple method to identify and modify the priority setting in a landscape where natural habitats are disappearing rapidly and so where conventional species' assessments might be too slow to respond. Tropical, mainland Southeast Asia is under exceptional threat, yet relatively poorly known. Here, additional quantitative measures may be particularly helpful. This region contains over 122, 183, and 214 endemic mammals, birds, and amphibians, respectively, of which the IUCN considers 37, 21, and 37 threatened. When corrected for the amount of remaining natural habitats within the known elevation preferences of species, the average sizes of species ranges shrink to <40% of their published ranges. Some 79 mammal, 49 bird, and 184 amphibian ranges are <20,000km2-an area at which IUCN considers most other species to be threatened. Moreover, these species are not better protected by the existing network of protected areas than are species that IUCN accepts as threatened. Simply, there appear to be considerably more species at risk than hitherto appreciated. Furthermore, incorporating remote sensing data showing where habitat loss is prevalent changes the locations of conservation priorities.Item Open Access Species, extinct before we know them?(Current biology : CB, 2015-03) Lees, Alexander C; Pimm, Stuart LSpecies are going extinct rapidly, while taxonomic catalogues are still incomplete for even the best-known taxa. Intensive fieldwork is finding species so rare and threatened that some become extinct within years of discovery. Recent bird extinctions in Brazil's coastal forests suggest that some species may have gone extinct before we knew of their existence.Item Open Access Targeted habitat restoration can reduce extinction rates in fragmented forests.(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017-09) Newmark, William D; Jenkins, Clinton N; Pimm, Stuart L; McNeally, Phoebe B; Halley, John MThe Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and the Atlantic Forest of Brazil are two of the most fragmented biodiversity hotspots. Species-area relationships predict that their habitat fragments will experience a substantial loss of species. Most of these extinctions will occur over an extended time, and therefore, reconnecting fragments could prevent species losses and allow locally extinct species to recolonize former habitats. An empirical relaxation half-life vs. area relationship for tropical bird communities estimates the time that it takes to lose one-half of all species that will be eventually lost. We use it to estimate the increase in species persistence by regenerating a forest connection 1 km in width among the largest and closest fragments at 11 locations. In the Eastern Arc Mountains, regenerating 8,134 ha of forest would create >316,000 ha in total of restored contiguous forest. More importantly, it would increase the persistence time for species by a factor of 6.8 per location or ∼2,272 years, on average, relative to individual fragments. In the Atlantic Forest, regenerating 6,452 ha of forest would create >251,000 ha in total of restored contiguous forest and enhance species persistence by a factor of 13.0 per location or ∼5,102 years, on average, relative to individual fragments. Rapidly regenerating forest among fragments is important, because mean time to the first determined extinction across all fragments is 7 years. We estimate the cost of forest regeneration at $21-$49 million dollars. It could provide one of the highest returns on investment for biodiversity conservation worldwide.Item Open Access The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection.(Science (New York, N.Y.), 2014-05) Pimm, SL; Jenkins, CN; Abell, R; Brooks, TM; Gittleman, JL; Joppa, LN; Raven, PH; Roberts, CM; Sexton, JORecent studies clarify where the most vulnerable species live, where and how humanity changes the planet, and how this drives extinctions. We assess key statistics about species, their distribution, and their status. Most are undescribed. Those we know best have large geographical ranges and are often common within them. Most known species have small ranges. The numbers of small-ranged species are increasing quickly, even in well-known taxa. They are geographically concentrated and are disproportionately likely to be threatened or already extinct. Current rates of extinction are about 1000 times the likely background rate of extinction. Future rates depend on many factors and are poised to increase. Although there has been rapid progress in developing protected areas, such efforts are not ecologically representative, nor do they optimally protect biodiversity.Item Open Access The Fate of the World's Plants.(Trends in ecology & evolution, 2017-05) Pimm, Stuart L; Raven, Peter HA recent report assessing the world's plant species finds continuing progress in completing the taxonomic catalog. However, many undescribed species remain. The report concludes that, presently, 21% of known species risk extinction. We show this statement applies to the short-term and ignores the as-yet undescribed species, which are also likely at risk of extinction. Human actions will extirpate many more by the end of this century.Item Open Access The Origin and Diversification of Birds.(Curr Biol, 2015-10-05) Brusatte, Stephen L; O'Connor, Jingmai K; Jarvis, Erich DBirds are one of the most recognizable and diverse groups of modern vertebrates. Over the past two decades, a wealth of new fossil discoveries and phylogenetic and macroevolutionary studies has transformed our understanding of how birds originated and became so successful. Birds evolved from theropod dinosaurs during the Jurassic (around 165-150 million years ago) and their classic small, lightweight, feathered, and winged body plan was pieced together gradually over tens of millions of years of evolution rather than in one burst of innovation. Early birds diversified throughout the Jurassic and Cretaceous, becoming capable fliers with supercharged growth rates, but were decimated at the end-Cretaceous extinction alongside their close dinosaurian relatives. After the mass extinction, modern birds (members of the avian crown group) explosively diversified, culminating in more than 10,000 species distributed worldwide today.