Browsing by Subject "Forests"
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Item Open Access African forest elephant movements depend on time scale and individual behavior.(Scientific reports, 2021-06-16) Beirne, Christopher; Houslay, Thomas M; Morkel, Peter; Clark, Connie J; Fay, Mike; Okouyi, Joseph; White, Lee JT; Poulsen, John RThe critically endangered African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) plays a vital role in maintaining the structure and composition of Afrotropical forests, but basic information is lacking regarding the drivers of elephant movement and behavior at landscape scales. We use GPS location data from 96 individuals throughout Gabon to determine how five movement behaviors vary at different scales, how they are influenced by anthropogenic and environmental covariates, and to assess evidence for behavioral syndromes-elephants which share suites of similar movement traits. Elephants show some evidence of behavioral syndromes along an 'idler' to 'explorer' axis-individuals that move more have larger home ranges and engage in more 'exploratory' movements. However, within these groups, forest elephants express remarkable inter-individual variation in movement behaviours. This variation highlights that no two elephants are the same and creates challenges for practitioners aiming to design conservation initiatives.Item Open Access An estimate of the number of tropical tree species.(Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2015-06-16) Slik, JW Ferry; Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Alves, Luciana F; Ashton, Peter; Balvanera, Patricia; Bastian, Meredith L; Bellingham, Peter J; van den Berg, Eduardo; Bernacci, Luis; da Conceição Bispo, Polyanna; Blanc, Lilian; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Boeckx, Pascal; Bongers, Frans; Boyle, Brad; Bradford, Matt; Brearley, Francis Q; Breuer-Ndoundou Hockemba, Mireille; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Calderado Leal Matos, Darley; Castillo-Santiago, Miguel; Catharino, Eduardo LM; Chai, Shauna-Lee; Chen, Yukai; Colwell, Robert K; Chazdon, Robin L; Clark, Connie; Clark, David B; Clark, Deborah A; Culmsee, Heike; Damas, Kipiro; Dattaraja, Handanakere S; Dauby, Gilles; Davidar, Priya; DeWalt, Saara J; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Duque, Alvaro; Durigan, Giselda; Eichhorn, Karl AO; Eisenlohr, Pedro V; Eler, Eduardo; Ewango, Corneille; Farwig, Nina; Feeley, Kenneth J; Ferreira, Leandro; Field, Richard; de Oliveira Filho, Ary T; Fletcher, Christine; Forshed, Olle; Franco, Geraldo; Fredriksson, Gabriella; Gillespie, Thomas; Gillet, Jean-François; Amarnath, Giriraj; Griffith, Daniel M; Grogan, James; Gunatilleke, Nimal; Harris, David; Harrison, Rhett; Hector, Andy; Homeier, Jürgen; Imai, Nobuo; Itoh, Akira; Jansen, Patrick A; Joly, Carlos A; de Jong, Bernardus HJ; Kartawinata, Kuswata; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Kelly, Daniel L; Kenfack, David; Kessler, Michael; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Kooyman, Robert; Larney, Eileen; Laumonier, Yves; Laurance, Susan; Laurance, William F; Lawes, Michael J; Amaral, Ieda Leao do; Letcher, Susan G; Lindsell, Jeremy; Lu, Xinghui; Mansor, Asyraf; Marjokorpi, Antti; Martin, Emanuel H; Meilby, Henrik; Melo, Felipe PL; Metcalfe, Daniel J; Medjibe, Vincent P; Metzger, Jean Paul; Millet, Jerome; Mohandass, D; Montero, Juan C; de Morisson Valeriano, Márcio; Mugerwa, Badru; Nagamasu, Hidetoshi; Nilus, Reuben; Ochoa-Gaona, Susana; Onrizal; Page, Navendu; Parolin, Pia; Parren, Marc; Parthasarathy, Narayanaswamy; Paudel, Ekananda; Permana, Andrea; Piedade, Maria TF; Pitman, Nigel CA; Poorter, Lourens; Poulsen, Axel D; Poulsen, John; Powers, Jennifer; Prasad, Rama C; Puyravaud, Jean-Philippe; Razafimahaimodison, Jean-Claude; Reitsma, Jan; Dos Santos, João Roberto; Roberto Spironello, Wilson; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Rozak, Andes Hamuraby; Ruokolainen, Kalle; Rutishauser, Ervan; Saiter, Felipe; Saner, Philippe; Santos, Braulio A; Santos, Fernanda; Sarker, Swapan K; Satdichanh, Manichanh; Schmitt, Christine B; Schöngart, Jochen; Schulze, Mark; Suganuma, Marcio S; Sheil, Douglas; da Silva Pinheiro, Eduardo; Sist, Plinio; Stevart, Tariq; Sukumar, Raman; Sun, I-Fang; Sunderland, Terry; Suresh, HS; Suzuki, Eizi; Tabarelli, Marcelo; Tang, Jangwei; Targhetta, Natália; Theilade, Ida; Thomas, Duncan W; Tchouto, Peguy; Hurtado, Johanna; Valencia, Renato; van Valkenburg, Johan LCH; Van Do, Tran; Vasquez, Rodolfo; Verbeeck, Hans; Adekunle, Victor; Vieira, Simone A; Webb, Campbell O; Whitfeld, Timothy; Wich, Serge A; Williams, John; Wittmann, Florian; Wöll, Hannsjoerg; Yang, Xiaobo; Adou Yao, C Yves; Yap, Sandra L; Yoneda, Tsuyoshi; Zahawi, Rakan A; Zakaria, Rahmad; Zang, Runguo; de Assis, Rafael L; Garcia Luize, Bruno; Venticinque, Eduardo MThe high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher's alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between ∼ 40,000 and ∼ 53,000, i.e., at the high end of previous estimates. Contrary to common assumption, the Indo-Pacific region was found to be as species-rich as the Neotropics, with both regions having a minimum of ∼ 19,000-25,000 tree species. Continental Africa is relatively depauperate with a minimum of ∼ 4,500-6,000 tree species. Very few species are shared among the African, American, and the Indo-Pacific regions. We provide a methodological framework for estimating species richness in trees that may help refine species richness estimates of tree-dependent taxa.Item Open Access Analysis of aboveground carbon for indigenous communities in Oaxaca, MX(2021-12-08) Harrigan, EliseManaging forests for carbon is a productive and sustainable way to provide conservation and economic and ecological value. Oaxaca, the most biologically diverse state in Mexico, located in the southwestern region of the country, is looking to expand carbon offset opportunities on indigenous lands. The client for this project, a Oaxacan-based NGO, Integrator Campesino and Indigenous Communities of Oaxaca (ICICO), is working in conjunction with indigenous communities, to manage and protect natural resources while providing sustainable livelihood opportunities. Carbon offset programs are emerging as a promising method in conserving the forests’ biodiversity, while still providing monetary value to the local people by selling credits on the carbon market. This project aims to (1) evaluate the current methodologies and allometric equations in use to calculate the aboveground carbon in the forest, (2) analyze if the current aboveground biomass map accurately depicts the carbon distribution across the state, and (3) identify future carbon offset project locations across the communally owned lands. As forests continue to be at risk of deforestation, the importance of creating community-based conservation opportunities is increasingly more valuable.Item Open Access Attracting Investment to REDD+: Capitalizing on Co-Benefits?(2014-04-25) Poirson, Evan; Hartman, Ashley; Hoagland, Chris; Yu, MichaelAt its inception in 2007, the United Nations-sponsored Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) mechanism had one primary goal: to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions from the global forest sector, which currently account for approximately 10% of global carbon emissions. REDD+ has undergone various modifications to its scope and approach in the succeeding nine years, but little has yet come from subsequent UN climate negotiations in the way of creating an obligatory financing scheme that would require participation from actors in developed countries. Today, dozens of preliminary REDD+ projects are operational across the world, but these projects receive strictly voluntary funding from a suite of public and private actors, including national governments and companies engaged in social responsibility practices. Despite some successes in this voluntary realm and promises of REDD+ advancement at recent negotiations, it has become clear that without assured funding – and pending an international financing mechanism for REDD+ – projects face an increasingly difficult environment for attaining capital resources. Scaling up the mechanism will be virtually impossible without addressing the imbalance between supply and demand for REDD+ credits in the voluntary stage. Code REDD, a San Francisco-based non-governmental organization whose mission is to support and scale the REDD+ mechanism, is attempting to discover whether untapped opportunities exist for sustaining REDD+ before the commencement of an international financing scheme, specifically by capitalizing on the co-benefits of REDD+ projects: the social and environmental outcomes that inherently accompany responsibly designed carbon offset projects. These co-benefits can include biodiversity benefits, freshwater provision, community economic development, and women’s empowerment. This question of the potential for co-benefit quantification and sale as a means to sustain REDD+ in the voluntary phase was the foundation of the research we undertook here. We aimed to determine how REDD+ stakeholders envisioned the role of co-benefits within the financing of REDD+, and if further efforts to quantify and sell them could bear meaningful results for the future of the mechanism. Splitting the REDD+ community into two distinct categories – practitioners (those who design, implement, and monitor REDD+ projects) and investors (both those who purchase REDD+ credits and those who invest in REDD+ projects) – we held more than twenty interviews to determine the answer to the above question. We found that, though co-benefits were considered an important – even indispensable – part of REDD+ success, few practitioners or investors were interested in their further quantification or expected that voluntary REDD+ could be sustained based on such action. That said, many current and potential investors offered insight into how the business case for REDD+ could be better articulated in order to attract more investment. Also, in speaking with practitioners, we identified ways that the mechanism could be better integrated with other contemporary environmental efforts, including biodiversity offsetting and water funds, offering what we believe could represent partial solutions to the REDD+ demand shortfall.Item Open Access Avoided Deforestation in the Democratic Republic of Congo(2008-12-05T15:06:25Z) McClanahan, PaigeDeforestation and forest degradation account for one fifth of greenhouse gas emissions around the world, second only to fossil fuel combustion. While the Kyoto Protocol has no mechanism that aims to stop forest loss, climate negotiators have begun to devise a program – to be built into Kyoto’s successor – that would reward developing countries for “avoiding deforestation” that otherwise would have occurred. Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, or REDD, certainly offers a lot of promise: by allowing poor forested countries to earn, and then sell, tradable carbon credits on a global carbon market, the program could generate a substantial amount of revenue. And many observers have argued that these funds could be used to help fight poverty in forest-dwelling communities. But REDD implementation would not be easy: it would require the technical capacity to measure and monitor forest cover and the governance capacity to both stop forest loss and distribute REDD-derived income. These challenges would be particularly daunting in countries that already struggle to govern effectively. To consider this issue in greater depth, this paper uses the Democratic Republic of Congo as a lens through which to examine the challenges of REDD implementation, especially with regard to how the program might impact the country’s poor forest dwellers. The paper concludes that, in the face of such governance challenges, the DRC should take concrete steps to create a facilitating environment for the program’s implementation. These steps include increasing investment in the forest sector, strengthening land tenure among forest-dwelling people, devolving more control over forests to local actors, and taking measures to increase transparency and combat corruption.Item Open Access Bird extirpations and community dynamics in an Andean cloud forest over 100 years of land-use change.(Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, 2020-06) Palacio, Ruben D; Kattan, Gustavo H; Pimm, Stuart LLong-term studies to understand biodiversity changes remain scarce-especially so for tropical mountains. We examined changes from 1911 to 2016 in the bird community of the cloud forest of San Antonio, a mountain ridge in the Colombian Andes. We evaluated the effects of past land-use change and assessed species vulnerability to climate disruption. Forest cover decreased from 95% to 50% by 1959, and 33 forest species were extirpated. From 1959 to 1990, forest cover remained stable, and an additional 15 species were lost-a total of 29% of the forest bird community. Thereafter, forest cover increased by 26% and 17 species recolonized the area. The main cause of extirpations was the loss of connections to adjacent forests. Of the 31 (19%) extirpated birds, 25 have ranges peripheral to San Antonio, mostly in the lowlands. Most still occurred regionally, but broken forest connections limited their recolonization. Other causes of extirpation were hunting, wildlife trade, and water diversion. Bird community changes included a shift from predominantly common species to rare species; forest generalists replaced forest specialists that require old growth, and functional groups, such as large-body frugivores and nectarivores, declined disproportionally. All water-dependent birds were extirpated. Of the remaining 122 forest species, 19 are vulnerable to climate disruption, 10 have declined in abundance, and 4 are threatened. Our results show unequivocal species losses and changes in community structure and abundance at the local scale. We found species were extirpated after habitat loss and fragmentation, but forest recovery stopped extirpations and helped species repopulate. Land-use changes increased species vulnerability to climate change, and we suggest reversing landscape transformation may restore biodiversity and improve resistance to future threats.Item Open Access China's endemic vertebrates sheltering under the protective umbrella of the giant panda.(Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology, 2016-04) Li, Binbin V; Pimm, Stuart LThe giant panda attracts disproportionate conservation resources. How well does this emphasis protect other endemic species? Detailed data on geographical ranges are not available for plants or invertebrates, so we restrict our analyses to 3 vertebrate taxa: birds, mammals, and amphibians. There are gaps in their protection, and we recommend practical actions to fill them. We identified patterns of species richness, then identified which species are endemic to China, and then which, like the panda, live in forests. After refining each species' range by its known elevational range and remaining forest habitats as determined from remote sensing, we identified the top 5% richest areas as the centers of endemism. Southern mountains, especially the eastern Hengduan Mountains, were centers for all 3 taxa. Over 96% of the panda habitat overlapped the endemic centers. Thus, investing in almost any panda habitat will benefit many other endemics. Existing panda national nature reserves cover all but one of the endemic species that overlap with the panda's distribution. Of particular interest are 14 mammal, 20 bird, and 82 amphibian species that are inadequately protected. Most of these species the International Union for Conservation of Nature currently deems threatened. But 7 mammal, 3 bird, and 20 amphibian species are currently nonthreatened, yet their geographical ranges are <20,000 km(2) after accounting for elevational restriction and remaining habitats. These species concentrate mainly in Sichuan, Yunnan, Nan Mountains, and Hainan. There is a high concentration in the east Daxiang and Xiaoxiang Mountains of Sichuan, where pandas are absent and where there are no national nature reserves. The others concentrate in Yunnan, Nan Mountains, and Hainan. Here, 10 prefectures might establish new protected areas or upgrade local nature reserves to national status.Item Open Access Comparisons of Carbon and Water Fluxes of Pine Forests in Boreal and Temperate Climatic Zones(2015) Torngern, PantanaQuantifying carbon fluxes and pools of forest ecosystems is an active research area in global climate study, particularly in the currently and projected increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration environment. Forest carbon dynamics are closely linked to the water cycle through plant stomata which are regulated by environmental conditions associated with atmospheric and soil humidity, air temperature and light. Thus, it is imperative to study both carbon and water fluxes of a forest ecosystem to be able to assess the impact of environmental changes, including those resulting from climate change, on global carbon and hydrologic cycles. However, challenges hampering such global study lie in the spatial heterogeneity of and the temporal variability of fluxes in forests around the globe. Moreover, continuous, long-term monitoring and measurements of fluxes are not feasible at global forest scale. Therefore, the need to quantify carbon and water fluxes and to identify key variables controlling them at multiple stands and time scales is growing. Such analyses will benefit the upscaling of stand-level observations to large- or global-scale modelling approaches.
I performed a series of studies investigating carbon and water fluxes in pine forests of various site characteristics, conditions and latitudinal locations. The common techniques used in these studies largely involved sap flux sensors to measure tree-level water flow which is scaled up to stand-level transpiration and a process-based model which calculates canopy light absorption and carbon assimilation constrained by the sap-flux beased canopy stomatal conductance (called Canopy Conductance Constrained Carbon Assimilation or 4C-A model). I collected and analyzed sap flux data from pine forests of two major species: Pinus taeda in temperate (36 °N) and Pinus sylvestris in boreal (64 °N) climatic zones. These forests were of different stage-related canopy leaf area and some were under treatments for elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration or fertilization.
I found that (Chapter 2) the 17-year long free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) had little effect on canopy transpiration of a mixed forest with the dominant P. taeda and other broadleaved species as the understory in North Carolina, USA (Duke FACE). The result was due to the compensation of elevated [CO2]-induced increase of canopy leaf area for the reduction of mean canopy stomatal conductance. My next theoretical study (Chapter 3), comparing P. taeda (native at 36 °N in North Carolina), P. sylvestris (native at 64 °N in norther Sweden) and Pinus contorta (native at 58 °N in British Columbia, Canada) canopies, revealed that the interaction between crown architecture and solar elevation associated with site latitude of pine canopies affected the distribution and total amount of canopy light absorption and potentially photosynthesis such that the latitudinally prescribed needle organization of a pine canopy is optimal for light interception and survival in its native location. Then, I quantified and analyzed water fluxes in four pine forests: one composed of P. taeda in North Carolina and three containing P. sylvestris in northern Sweden (Chapter 4). The latter forests consisted of various stage-related canopy leaf area and nutrient status. Combining my estimates with other published results from forests of various types and latitudinal locations, I derived an approach to estimate daily canopy transpiration during the growing season based on a few environmental variables including atmospheric and soil humidity and canopy leaf area. Moreover, based on a water budget analysis, I discovered that the intra-annual variation of precipitation in a forest has a small effect on evapotranspiration and primarily affecting outflow; however, variation of precipitation across latitudes proportionally influences anuual evapotranspiration and outflow. Furthermore, the hydrologic analyses implied the `disequilibrium' of forest water cycling during the growing season when forests may use less and more water in dry and wet regions, respectively, than the incoming precipitation. Nevertherless, at annual timescale, most forests became in `equilibrium' by using similar proportion of incoming precipitation. Finally, (Chapter 5) I estimated and analyzed the temporal and spatial variabilities of carbon fluxes of the same four forests measured in Chapter 4 using the 4C-A computational approach and analyzed their resource-use efficiencies. I concluded that, based on my results and others as available, despite the differences in species clumping and latitudes which influence growing season length and solar elevation, the gross primary productivity can be conservatively linearly related to the canopy light absorption. However, based on previous findings from a global study, different allocation of the acquired carbon to the above- and belowground is regulated by soil nutrient status.
Overall, the findings in this dissertation offer new insights into the impacts of environmental changes on carbon and water dynamics in forests across multiple sites and temporal scales which will be useful for larger-scale analyses such as those pertaining to global climate projection.
Item Open Access Cutting the Green Tape in North Carolina(2023-04-28) Lohman, Adam; Roderer, AnneRegulators and practitioners can face significant barriers to ecosystem conservation and restoration. This study attempts to identify those barriers in North Carolina and develops recommendations for increasing the pace and scale of these activities. Doing so can support implementation of the 2020 North Carolina Natural and Working Lands Action Plan, which aims to enhance natural carbon sinks and provide a variety of benefits to people through conservation and management of natural and working lands. A list of barriers to effective and equitable conservation and restoration for forests and watershed protection was generated following a literature review and interviews with stakeholders across state agencies, academia, and others. Barriers include gaps within the existing governance structures, lack of funding for incentive programs, agency capacity constraints, barriers in equitable access to funding and resources, a deficit of political will, and inadequate public awareness. Further analysis and case studies inform policy recommendations.Item Open Access Deadwood stocks increase with selective logging and large tree frequency in Gabon.(Glob Chang Biol, 2017-04) Carlson, Ben S; Koerner, Sally E; Medjibe, Vincent P; White, Lee JT; Poulsen, John RDeadwood is a major component of aboveground biomass (AGB) in tropical forests and is important as habitat and for nutrient cycling and carbon storage. With deforestation and degradation taking place throughout the tropics, improved understanding of the magnitude and spatial variation in deadwood is vital for the development of regional and global carbon budgets. However, this potentially important carbon pool is poorly quantified in Afrotropical forests and the regional drivers of deadwood stocks are unknown. In the first large-scale study of deadwood in Central Africa, we quantified stocks in 47 forest sites across Gabon and evaluated the effects of disturbance (logging), forest structure variables (live AGB, wood density, abundance of large trees), and abiotic variables (temperature, precipitation, seasonality). Average deadwood stocks (measured as necromass, the biomass of deadwood) were 65 Mg ha-1 or 23% of live AGB. Deadwood stocks varied spatially with disturbance and forest structure, but not abiotic variables. Deadwood stocks increased significantly with logging (+38 Mg ha-1 ) and the abundance of large trees (+2.4 Mg ha-1 for every tree >60 cm dbh). Gabon holds 0.74 Pg C, or 21% of total aboveground carbon in deadwood, a threefold increase over previous estimates. Importantly, deadwood densities in Gabon are comparable to those in the Neotropics and respond similarly to logging, but represent a lower proportion of live AGB (median of 18% in Gabon compared to 26% in the Neotropics). In forest carbon accounting, necromass is often assumed to be a constant proportion (9%) of biomass, but in humid tropical forests this ratio varies from 2% in undisturbed forest to 300% in logged forest. Because logging significantly increases the deadwood carbon pool, estimates of tropical forest carbon should at a minimum use different ratios for logged (mean of 30%) and unlogged forests (mean of 18%).Item Open Access Effects of land use, habitat characteristics, and small mammal community composition on Leptospira prevalence in northeast Madagascar.(PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2020-12-31) Herrera, James P; Wickenkamp, Natalie R; Turpin, Magali; Baudino, Fiona; Tortosa, Pablo; Goodman, Steven M; Soarimalala, Voahangy; Ranaivoson, Tamby Nasaina; Nunn, Charles LHuman activities can increase or decrease risks of acquiring a zoonotic disease, notably by affecting the composition and abundance of hosts. This study investigated the links between land use and infectious disease risk in northeast Madagascar, where human subsistence activities and population growth are encroaching on native habitats and the associated biota. We collected new data on pathogenic Leptospira, which are bacteria maintained in small mammal reservoirs. Transmission can occur through close contact, but most frequently through indirect contact with water contaminated by the urine of infected hosts. The probability of infection and prevalence was compared across a gradient of natural moist evergreen forest, nearby forest fragments, flooded rice and other types of agricultural fields, and in homes in a rural village. Using these data, we tested specific hypotheses for how land use alters ecological communities and influences disease transmission. The relative abundance and proportion of exotic species was highest in the anthropogenic habitats, while the relative abundance of native species was highest in the forested habitats. Prevalence of Leptospira was significantly higher in introduced compared to endemic species. Lastly, the probability of infection with Leptospira was highest in introduced small mammal species, and lower in forest fragments compared to other habitat types. Our results highlight how human land use affects the small mammal community composition and in turn disease dynamics. Introduced species likely transmit Leptospira to native species where they co-occur, and may displace the Leptospira species naturally occurring in Madagascar. The frequent spatial overlap of people and introduced species likely also has consequences for public health.Item Open Access Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation.(PLoS One, 2015) Sills, Erin O; Herrera, Diego; Kirkpatrick, A Justin; Brandão, Amintas; Dickson, Rebecca; Hall, Simon; Pattanayak, Subhrendu; Shoch, David; Vedoveto, Mariana; Young, Luisa; Pfaff, AlexanderQuasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts' selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal "blacklist" that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that are implemented in just a few locations.Item Open Access Evaluating interactions of forest conservation policies on avoided deforestation.(PLoS One, 2015) Robalino, Juan; Sandoval, Catalina; Barton, David N; Chacon, Adriana; Pfaff, AlexanderWe estimate the effects on deforestation that have resulted from policy interactions between parks and payments and between park buffers and payments in Costa Rica between 2000 and 2005. We show that the characteristics of the areas where protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. Additionally, we find that land characteristics of each of the policies and of the places where they interact also differ significantly. To adequately estimate the effects of the policies and their interactions, we use matching methods. Matching is implemented not only to define adequate control groups, as in previous research, but also to define those groups of locations under the influence of policies that are comparable to each other. We find that it is more effective to locate parks and payments away from each other, rather than in the same location or near each other. The high levels of enforcement inside both parks and lands with payments, and the presence of conservation spillovers that reduce deforestation near parks, significantly reduce the potential impact of combining these two policies.Item Open Access Incorporating explicit geospatial data shows more species at risk of extinction than the current Red List.(Science advances, 2016-11-09) Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia; Jenkins, Clinton N; Vijay, Varsha; Li, Binbin V; Pimm, Stuart LThe IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List classifies species according to their risk of extinction, informing global to local conservation decisions. Unfortunately, important geospatial data do not explicitly or efficiently enter this process. Rapid growth in the availability of remotely sensed observations provides fine-scale data on elevation and increasingly sophisticated characterizations of land cover and its changes. These data readily show that species are likely not present within many areas within the overall envelopes of their distributions. Additionally, global databases on protected areas inform how extensively ranges are protected. We selected 586 endemic and threatened forest bird species from six of the world's most biodiverse and threatened places (Atlantic Forest of Brazil, Central America, Western Andes of Colombia, Madagascar, Sumatra, and Southeast Asia). The Red List deems 18% of these species to be threatened (15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable). Inevitably, after refining ranges by elevation and forest cover, ranges shrink. Do they do so consistently? For example, refined ranges of critically endangered species might reduce by (say) 50% but so might the ranges of endangered, vulnerable, and nonthreatened species. Critically, this is not the case. We find that 43% of species fall below the range threshold where comparable species are deemed threatened. Some 210 bird species belong in a higher-threat category than the current Red List placement, including 189 species that are currently deemed nonthreatened. Incorporating readily available spatial data substantially increases the numbers of species that should be considered at risk and alters priority areas for conservation.Item Open Access Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth's tropical forests.(Science (New York, N.Y.), 2020-05-21) Sullivan, Martin JP; Lewis, Simon L; Affum-Baffoe, Kofi; Castilho, Carolina; Costa, Flávia; Sanchez, Aida Cuni; Ewango, Corneille EN; Hubau, Wannes; Marimon, Beatriz; Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel; Qie, Lan; Sonké, Bonaventure; Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez; Baker, Timothy R; Brienen, Roel JW; Feldpausch, Ted R; Galbraith, David; Gloor, Manuel; Malhi, Yadvinder; Aiba, Shin-Ichiro; Alexiades, Miguel N; Almeida, Everton C; de Oliveira, Edmar Almeida; Dávila, Esteban Álvarez; Loayza, Patricia Alvarez; Andrade, Ana; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Aragão, Luiz EOC; Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro; Arets, Eric JMM; Arroyo, Luzmila; Ashton, Peter; Aymard C, Gerardo; Baccaro, Fabrício B; Banin, Lindsay F; Baraloto, Christopher; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Barlow, Jos; Barroso, Jorcely; Bastin, Jean-François; Batterman, Sarah A; Beeckman, Hans; Begne, Serge K; Bennett, Amy C; Berenguer, Erika; Berry, Nicholas; Blanc, Lilian; Boeckx, Pascal; Bogaert, Jan; Bonal, Damien; Bongers, Frans; Bradford, Matt; Brearley, Francis Q; Brncic, Terry; Brown, Foster; Burban, Benoit; Camargo, José Luís; Castro, Wendeson; Céron, Carlos; Ribeiro, Sabina Cerruto; Moscoso, Victor Chama; Chave, Jerôme; Chezeaux, Eric; Clark, Connie J; de Souza, Fernanda Coelho; Collins, Murray; Comiskey, James A; Valverde, Fernando Cornejo; Medina, Massiel Corrales; da Costa, Lola; Dančák, Martin; Dargie, Greta C; Davies, Stuart; Cardozo, Nallaret Davila; de Haulleville, Thales; de Medeiros, Marcelo Brilhante; Del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon; Derroire, Géraldine; Di Fiore, Anthony; Doucet, Jean-Louis; Dourdain, Aurélie; Droissart, Vincent; Duque, Luisa Fernanda; Ekoungoulou, Romeo; Elias, Fernando; Erwin, Terry; Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane; Fauset, Sophie; Ferreira, Joice; Llampazo, Gerardo Flores; Foli, Ernest; Ford, Andrew; Gilpin, Martin; Hall, Jefferson S; Hamer, Keith C; Hamilton, Alan C; Harris, David J; Hart, Terese B; Hédl, Radim; Herault, Bruno; Herrera, Rafael; Higuchi, Niro; Hladik, Annette; Coronado, Eurídice Honorio; Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau; Huasco, Walter Huaraca; Jeffery, Kathryn J; Jimenez-Rojas, Eliana; Kalamandeen, Michelle; Djuikouo, Marie Noël Kamdem; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Umetsu, Ricardo Keichi; Kho, Lip Khoon; Killeen, Timothy; Kitayama, Kanehiro; Klitgaard, Bente; Koch, Alexander; Labrière, Nicolas; Laurance, William; Laurance, Susan; Leal, Miguel E; Levesley, Aurora; Lima, Adriano JN; Lisingo, Janvier; Lopes, Aline P; Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela; Lovejoy, Tom; Lovett, Jon C; Lowe, Richard; Magnusson, William E; Malumbres-Olarte, Jagoba; Manzatto, Ângelo Gilberto; Marimon, Ben Hur; Marshall, Andrew R; Marthews, Toby; de Almeida Reis, Simone Matias; Maycock, Colin; Melgaço, Karina; Mendoza, Casimiro; Metali, Faizah; Mihindou, Vianet; Milliken, William; Mitchard, Edward TA; Morandi, Paulo S; Mossman, Hannah L; Nagy, Laszlo; Nascimento, Henrique; Neill, David; Nilus, Reuben; Vargas, Percy Núñez; Palacios, Walter; Camacho, Nadir Pallqui; Peacock, Julie; Pendry, Colin; Peñuela Mora, Maria Cristina; Pickavance, Georgia C; Pipoly, John; Pitman, Nigel; Playfair, Maureen; Poorter, Lourens; Poulsen, John R; Poulsen, Axel Dalberg; Preziosi, Richard; Prieto, Adriana; Primack, Richard B; Ramírez-Angulo, Hirma; Reitsma, Jan; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Correa, Zorayda Restrepo; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Bayona, Lily Rodriguez; Roopsind, Anand; Rudas, Agustín; Rutishauser, Ervan; Abu Salim, Kamariah; Salomão, Rafael P; Schietti, Juliana; Sheil, Douglas; Silva, Richarlly C; Espejo, Javier Silva; Valeria, Camila Silva; Silveira, Marcos; Simo-Droissart, Murielle; Simon, Marcelo Fragomeni; Singh, James; Soto Shareva, Yahn Carlos; Stahl, Clement; Stropp, Juliana; Sukri, Rahayu; Sunderland, Terry; Svátek, Martin; Swaine, Michael D; Swamy, Varun; Taedoumg, Hermann; Talbot, Joey; Taplin, James; Taylor, David; Ter Steege, Hans; Terborgh, John; Thomas, Raquel; Thomas, Sean C; Torres-Lezama, Armando; Umunay, Peter; Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela; van der Heijden, Geertje; van der Hout, Peter; van der Meer, Peter; van Nieuwstadt, Mark; Verbeeck, Hans; Vernimmen, Ronald; Vicentini, Alberto; Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães; Torre, Emilio Vilanova; Vleminckx, Jason; Vos, Vincent; Wang, Ophelia; White, Lee JT; Willcock, Simon; Woods, John T; Wortel, Verginia; Young, Kenneth; Zagt, Roderick; Zemagho, Lise; Zuidema, Pieter A; Zwerts, Joeri A; Phillips, Oliver LThe sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.Item Open Access Nitrogen addition to a mixed pine-broadleaved forest under elevated atmospheric CO2 exacerbates phosphorus and potassium deficiencies(2022-04-22) Knier, AubreyForests are vital ecosystems because they capture and store carbon from our atmosphere; this is essential for maintaining the balance between carbon uptake and release in the global carbon cycle. However, human activities—mainly burning fossil fuels—are releasing carbon dioxide (CO2) into our atmosphere at a rate we are not confident forests can keep pace with. As we face climate change, it is critical to understand exactly how forests respond to elevated CO2 to inform best forest management practices. Since trees utilize CO2 to photosynthesize, it is generally thought that increased amounts of CO2 will increase biomass, which will create a positive feedback loop for carbon sequestration. However, there are likely limitations—namely of nutrients—to production that prevent this from being the case. This study aims to better understand such tree nutrient limitations and responses to climate change conditions through the most realistically simulated means possible. This project uses data from the Duke Forest Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment to investigate the effect of CO2-fumigation and nitrogen (N)-fertilization on nutrient concentrations in trees in their natural ecosystems. The experiment began in 1993 in the Blackwood Division of the Duke Forest in Durham, North Carolina on a 90-ha loblolly pine plantation with relatively acidic soils of low fertility. The split-plot randomized block experimental design had two main levels: first, four of the eight 30mdiameter plots were fumigated with elevated CO2; next all eight plots were divided in half and only one half was fertilized with N. This created four distinct treatment groups: Ambient Control, Ambient Fertilized, Elevated Control, and Elevated Fertilized—each represented by four “half-plots.” Starting in 2010, loblolly pine and broadleaved foliage, wood, and roots were harvested and analyzed for the six main plant nutrients: carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), and magnesium (Mg). We hypothesized that low concentrations of any other main plant nutrients—not just N—would mute trees’ response to elevated CO2. That is, fertilizing with only N would not be sufficient to alleviate nutrient limitations. Data from the Duke FACE experiment were analyzed for a signature of any nutrient limitations under elevated CO2. Linear mixed models with random effects were created for each main plant element (C, N, P, K, Ca, and Mg) in each tree component. These components included foliage, branch wood, stem wood, and roots for loblolly pine, sweetgum, a collection of other broadleaved species, small understory specimens, and vines. The statistical models were used to assess whether nutrient concentrations were significantly affected by elevated CO2 and N-fertilization. Overall, elevated CO2 and N-fertilization did not significantly affect any nutrient concentrations across all species in all aboveground components. We then compared Duke FACE loblolly pine foliar nutrient ratios to reference values—or values that are considered adequate for normal tree growth—and found that the system was P- and K-limited (P:N and K:N were 24% and 26% below adequate). In fact, adding N not only failed to alleviate P- and K-limitations, but significantly exacerbated them. Interestingly, we found a strong response to elevated CO2 and N-fertilization in the roots, especially in loblolly pine. Under N-fertilization, [P] was almost 16% higher and [K] was 29% higher under elevated CO2 than under ambient CO2 in pine roots, suggesting increased root production and exploration for the elements that limited tree production. The additional C supplied by elevated CO2 and exacerbated nutrient limitation by N-fertilization created a high demand for P and K to support increased biomass production. In response, root biomass increased, and P and K were locked belowground and used locally. The Duke FACE experiment is special because it allows us to understand how trees will respond to future climate change conditions before they happen. With this vital information, we can implement preemptive forest management practices that support continued production and carbon sequestration under elevated CO2. The results of this study underscore that elevated CO2 will only increase tree production when all main plant nutrients are adequately available. Thus, balanced fertilizers, rather than only N-fertilizers, should be applied to forests to ensure that our global carbon cycle is maintained during a most imperative time.Item Open Access Protected Areas' Impacts on Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: Examining Conservation-Development Interactions to Inform Planning.(PLoS One, 2015) Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan; Herrera, Diego; Sandoval, CatalinaProtected areas are the leading forest conservation policy for species and ecoservices goals and they may feature in climate policy if countries with tropical forest rely on familiar tools. For Brazil's Legal Amazon, we estimate the average impact of protection upon deforestation and show how protected areas' forest impacts vary significantly with development pressure. We use matching, i.e., comparisons that are apples-to-apples in observed land characteristics, to address the fact that protected areas (PAs) tend to be located on lands facing less pressure. Correcting for that location bias lowers our estimates of PAs' forest impacts by roughly half. Further, it reveals significant variation in PA impacts along development-related dimensions: for example, the PAs that are closer to roads and the PAs closer to cities have higher impact. Planners have multiple conservation and development goals, and are constrained by cost, yet still conservation planning should reflect what our results imply about future impacts of PAs.Item Open Access Surficial gains and subsoil losses of soil carbon and nitrogen during secondary forest development.(Global change biology, 2015-02) Mobley, Megan L; Lajtha, Kate; Kramer, Marc G; Bacon, Allan R; Heine, Paul R; Richter, Daniel DebReforestation of formerly cultivated land is widely understood to accumulate above- and belowground detrital organic matter pools, including soil organic matter. However, during 40 years of study of reforestation in the subtropical southeastern USA, repeated observations of above- and belowground carbon documented that significant gains in soil organic matter (SOM) in surface soils (0-7.5 cm) were offset by significant SOM losses in subsoils (35-60 cm). Here, we extended the observation period in this long-term experiment by an additional decade, and used soil fractionation and stable isotopes and radioisotopes to explore changes in soil organic carbon and soil nitrogen that accompanied nearly 50 years of loblolly pine secondary forest development. We observed that accumulations of mineral soil C and N from 0 to 7.5 cm were almost entirely due to accumulations of light-fraction SOM. Meanwhile, losses of soil C and N from mineral soils at 35 to 60 cm were from SOM associated with silt and clay-sized particles. Isotopic signatures showed relatively large accumulations of forest-derived carbon in surface soils, and little to no accumulation of forest-derived carbon in subsoils. We argue that the land use change from old field to secondary forest drove biogeochemical and hydrological changes throughout the soil profile that enhanced microbial activity and SOM decomposition in subsoils. However, when the pine stands aged and began to transition to mixed pines and hardwoods, demands on soil organic matter for nutrients to support aboveground growth eased due to pine mortality, and subsoil organic matter levels stabilized. This study emphasizes the importance of long-term experiments and deep measurements when characterizing soil C and N responses to land use change and the remarkable paucity of such long-term soil data deeper than 30 cm.Item Open Access Targeted habitat restoration can reduce extinction rates in fragmented forests.(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017-09) Newmark, William D; Jenkins, Clinton N; Pimm, Stuart L; McNeally, Phoebe B; Halley, John MThe Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and the Atlantic Forest of Brazil are two of the most fragmented biodiversity hotspots. Species-area relationships predict that their habitat fragments will experience a substantial loss of species. Most of these extinctions will occur over an extended time, and therefore, reconnecting fragments could prevent species losses and allow locally extinct species to recolonize former habitats. An empirical relaxation half-life vs. area relationship for tropical bird communities estimates the time that it takes to lose one-half of all species that will be eventually lost. We use it to estimate the increase in species persistence by regenerating a forest connection 1 km in width among the largest and closest fragments at 11 locations. In the Eastern Arc Mountains, regenerating 8,134 ha of forest would create >316,000 ha in total of restored contiguous forest. More importantly, it would increase the persistence time for species by a factor of 6.8 per location or ∼2,272 years, on average, relative to individual fragments. In the Atlantic Forest, regenerating 6,452 ha of forest would create >251,000 ha in total of restored contiguous forest and enhance species persistence by a factor of 13.0 per location or ∼5,102 years, on average, relative to individual fragments. Rapidly regenerating forest among fragments is important, because mean time to the first determined extinction across all fragments is 7 years. We estimate the cost of forest regeneration at $21-$49 million dollars. It could provide one of the highest returns on investment for biodiversity conservation worldwide.Item Open Access The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.(PloS one, 2016-01) Vijay, Varsha; Pimm, Stuart L; Jenkins, Clinton N; Smith, Sharon JPalm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.