Browsing by Subject "Influenza, Human"
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Item Open Access A host transcriptional signature for presymptomatic detection of infection in humans exposed to influenza H1N1 or H3N2.(PLoS One, 2013) Woods, Christopher W; McClain, Micah T; Chen, Minhua; Zaas, Aimee K; Nicholson, Bradly P; Varkey, Jay; Veldman, Timothy; Kingsmore, Stephen F; Kingsmore, Stephen F; Huang, Yongsheng; Lambkin-Williams, Robert; Gilbert, Anthony G; Hero, Alfred O; Ramsburg, Elizabeth; Glickman, Seth; Lucas, Joseph E; Carin, Lawrence; Ginsburg, Geoffrey SThere is great potential for host-based gene expression analysis to impact the early diagnosis of infectious diseases. In particular, the influenza pandemic of 2009 highlighted the challenges and limitations of traditional pathogen-based testing for suspected upper respiratory viral infection. We inoculated human volunteers with either influenza A (A/Brisbane/59/2007 (H1N1) or A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)), and assayed the peripheral blood transcriptome every 8 hours for 7 days. Of 41 inoculated volunteers, 18 (44%) developed symptomatic infection. Using unbiased sparse latent factor regression analysis, we generated a gene signature (or factor) for symptomatic influenza capable of detecting 94% of infected cases. This gene signature is detectable as early as 29 hours post-exposure and achieves maximal accuracy on average 43 hours (p = 0.003, H1N1) and 38 hours (p-value = 0.005, H3N2) before peak clinical symptoms. In order to test the relevance of these findings in naturally acquired disease, a composite influenza A signature built from these challenge studies was applied to Emergency Department patients where it discriminates between swine-origin influenza A/H1N1 (2009) infected and non-infected individuals with 92% accuracy. The host genomic response to Influenza infection is robust and may provide the means for detection before typical clinical symptoms are apparent.Item Open Access A Prevalent Focused Human Antibody Response to the Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin Head Interface.(mBio, 2021-06) McCarthy, Kevin R; Lee, Jiwon; Watanabe, Akiko; Kuraoka, Masayuki; Robinson-McCarthy, Lindsey R; Georgiou, George; Kelsoe, Garnett; Harrison, Stephen CNovel animal influenza viruses emerge, initiate pandemics, and become endemic seasonal variants that have evolved to escape from prevalent herd immunity. These processes often outpace vaccine-elicited protection. Focusing immune responses on conserved epitopes may impart durable immunity. We describe a focused, protective antibody response, abundant in memory and serum repertoires, to a conserved region at the influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) head interface. Structures of 11 examples, 8 reported here, from seven human donors demonstrate the convergence of responses on a single epitope. The 11 are genetically diverse, with one class having a common, IGκV1-39, light chain. All of the antibodies bind HAs from multiple serotypes. The lack of apparent genetic restriction and potential for elicitation by more than one serotype may explain their abundance. We define the head interface as a major target of broadly protective antibodies with the potential to influence the outcomes of influenza virus infection. IMPORTANCE The rapid appearance of mutations in circulating human influenza viruses and selection for escape from herd immunity require prediction of likely variants for an annual updating of influenza vaccines. The identification of human antibodies that recognize conserved surfaces on the influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) has prompted efforts to design immunogens that might selectively elicit such antibodies. The recent discovery of a widely prevalent antibody response to the conserved interface between two HA "heads" (the globular, receptor-binding domains at the apex of the spike-like trimer) has added a new target for these efforts. We report structures of eight such antibodies, bound with HA heads, and compare them with each other and with three others previously described. Although genetically diverse, they all converge on a common binding site. The analysis here can guide immunogen design for preclinical trials.Item Open Access Acute infectious morbidity in multiple gestation.(Infect Dis Obstet Gynecol, 2015) Dotters-Katz, Sarah K; Patel, Emily; Grotegut, Chad A; Heine, R PhillipsOBJECTIVES: Physiologic and immunologic changes in pregnancy result in increased susceptibility to infection. These shifts are more pronounced in pregnancies complicated by multiple gestation. The objective of this study was to determine the association between multiple gestation and risk of infectious morbidity. STUDY DESIGN: The Nationwide Inpatient Sample for the years 2008-2010 was used to identify pregnant women during admission for delivery with International Classification of Diseases codes. Logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for demographic data, preexisting medical conditions, and acute medical and infectious complications for women with multiple versus singleton gestations. RESULTS: Among women with multiple gestation, 38.4 per 1,000 women had an infectious complication compared to 12.8 per 1,000 women with singletons. The most significant infectious morbidity associated with multiple gestation was intestinal infections, pyelonephritis, influenza, and pneumonia. After controlling for confounding variables, infectious complications at delivery persisted for women with multiples, though the association was dependent on mode of delivery. CONCLUSIONS: Women with multiple gestations are at increased risk for infectious morbidity identified at the time of delivery. This association was diminished among women who had a cesarean suggesting that operative delivery is not responsible for this association.Item Open Access An international perspective on hospitalized patients with viral community-acquired pneumonia.(European journal of internal medicine, 2019-02) Radovanovic, Dejan; Sotgiu, Giovanni; Jankovic, Mateja; Mahesh, Padukudru Anand; Marcos, Pedro Jorge; Abdalla, Mohamed I; Di Pasquale, Marta Francesca; Gramegna, Andrea; Gramegna, Andrea; Terraneo, Silvia; Blasi, Francesco; Santus, Pierachille; Aliberti, Stefano; Reyes, Luis F; Restrepo, Marcos I; GLIMP Study GroupBackground
Who should be tested for viruses in patients with community acquired pneumonia (CAP), prevalence and risk factors for viral CAP are still debated. We evaluated the frequency of viral testing, virus prevalence, risk factors and treatment coverage with oseltamivir in patients admitted for CAP.Methods
Secondary analysis of GLIMP, an international, multicenter, point-prevalence study of hospitalized adults with CAP. Testing frequency, prevalence of viral CAP and treatment with oseltamivir were assessed among patients who underwent a viral swab. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to evaluate risk factors.Results
553 (14.9%) patients with CAP underwent nasal swab. Viral CAP was diagnosed in 157 (28.4%) patients. Influenza virus was isolated in 80.9% of cases. Testing frequency and viral CAP prevalence were inhomogeneous across the participating centers. Obesity (OR 1.59, 95%CI: 1.01-2.48; p = 0.043) and need for invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 1.62, 95%CI: 1.02-2.56; p = 0.040) were independently associated with viral CAP. Prevalence of empirical treatment with oseltamivir was 5.1%.Conclusion
In an international scenario, testing frequency for viruses in CAP is very low. The most common cause of viral CAP is Influenza virus. Obesity and need for invasive ventilation represent independent risk factors for viral CAP. Adherence to recommendations for treatment with oseltamivir is poor.Item Open Access Assessment of the Feasibility of Using Noninvasive Wearable Biometric Monitoring Sensors to Detect Influenza and the Common Cold Before Symptom Onset.(JAMA network open, 2021-09) Grzesiak, Emilia; Bent, Brinnae; McClain, Micah T; Woods, Christopher W; Tsalik, Ephraim L; Nicholson, Bradly P; Veldman, Timothy; Burke, Thomas W; Gardener, Zoe; Bergstrom, Emma; Turner, Ronald B; Chiu, Christopher; Doraiswamy, P Murali; Hero, Alfred; Henao, Ricardo; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; Dunn, JessilynImportance
Currently, there are no presymptomatic screening methods to identify individuals infected with a respiratory virus to prevent disease spread and to predict their trajectory for resource allocation.Objective
To evaluate the feasibility of using noninvasive, wrist-worn wearable biometric monitoring sensors to detect presymptomatic viral infection after exposure and predict infection severity in patients exposed to H1N1 influenza or human rhinovirus.Design, setting, and participants
The cohort H1N1 viral challenge study was conducted during 2018; data were collected from September 11, 2017, to May 4, 2018. The cohort rhinovirus challenge study was conducted during 2015; data were collected from September 14 to 21, 2015. A total of 39 adult participants were recruited for the H1N1 challenge study, and 24 adult participants were recruited for the rhinovirus challenge study. Exclusion criteria for both challenges included chronic respiratory illness and high levels of serum antibodies. Participants in the H1N1 challenge study were isolated in a clinic for a minimum of 8 days after inoculation. The rhinovirus challenge took place on a college campus, and participants were not isolated.Exposures
Participants in the H1N1 challenge study were inoculated via intranasal drops of diluted influenza A/California/03/09 (H1N1) virus with a mean count of 106 using the median tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50) assay. Participants in the rhinovirus challenge study were inoculated via intranasal drops of diluted human rhinovirus strain type 16 with a count of 100 using the TCID50 assay.Main outcomes and measures
The primary outcome measures included cross-validated performance metrics of random forest models to screen for presymptomatic infection and predict infection severity, including accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).Results
A total of 31 participants with H1N1 (24 men [77.4%]; mean [SD] age, 34.7 [12.3] years) and 18 participants with rhinovirus (11 men [61.1%]; mean [SD] age, 21.7 [3.1] years) were included in the analysis after data preprocessing. Separate H1N1 and rhinovirus detection models, using only data on wearble devices as input, were able to distinguish between infection and noninfection with accuracies of up to 92% for H1N1 (90% precision, 90% sensitivity, 93% specificity, and 90% F1 score, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.70-1.00] AUC) and 88% for rhinovirus (100% precision, 78% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 88% F1 score, and 0.96 [95% CI, 0.85-1.00] AUC). The infection severity prediction model was able to distinguish between mild and moderate infection 24 hours prior to symptom onset with an accuracy of 90% for H1N1 (88% precision, 88% sensitivity, 92% specificity, 88% F1 score, and 0.88 [95% CI, 0.72-1.00] AUC) and 89% for rhinovirus (100% precision, 75% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 86% F1 score, and 0.95 [95% CI, 0.79-1.00] AUC).Conclusions and relevance
This cohort study suggests that the use of a noninvasive, wrist-worn wearable device to predict an individual's response to viral exposure prior to symptoms is feasible. Harnessing this technology would support early interventions to limit presymptomatic spread of viral respiratory infections, which is timely in the era of COVID-19.Item Open Access Gene Expression Profiles Link Respiratory Viral Infection, Platelet Response to Aspirin, and Acute Myocardial Infarction.(PLoS One, 2015) Rose, Jason J; Voora, Deepak; Cyr, Derek D; Lucas, Joseph E; Zaas, Aimee K; Woods, Christopher W; Newby, L Kristin; Kraus, William E; Ginsburg, Geoffrey SBACKGROUND: Influenza infection is associated with myocardial infarction (MI), suggesting that respiratory viral infection may induce biologic pathways that contribute to MI. We tested the hypotheses that 1) a validated blood gene expression signature of respiratory viral infection (viral GES) was associated with MI and 2) respiratory viral exposure changes levels of a validated platelet gene expression signature (platelet GES) of platelet function in response to aspirin that is associated with MI. METHODS: A previously defined viral GES was projected into blood RNA data from 594 patients undergoing elective cardiac catheterization and used to classify patients as having evidence of viral infection or not and tested for association with acute MI using logistic regression. A previously defined platelet GES was projected into blood RNA data from 81 healthy subjects before and after exposure to four respiratory viruses: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) (n=20), Human Rhinovirus (HRV) (n=20), Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (H1N1) (n=24), Influenza A Virus subtype H3N2 (H3N2) (n=17). We tested for the change in platelet GES with viral exposure using linear mixed-effects regression and by symptom status. RESULTS: In the catheterization cohort, 32 patients had evidence of viral infection based upon the viral GES, of which 25% (8/32) had MI versus 12.2% (69/567) among those without evidence of viral infection (OR 2.3; CI [1.03-5.5], p=0.04). In the infection cohorts, only H1N1 exposure increased platelet GES over time (time course p-value = 1e-04). CONCLUSIONS: A viral GES of non-specific, respiratory viral infection was associated with acute MI; 18% of the top 49 genes in the viral GES are involved with hemostasis and/or platelet aggregation. Separately, H1N1 exposure, but not exposure to other respiratory viruses, increased a platelet GES previously shown to be associated with MI. Together, these results highlight specific genes and pathways that link viral infection, platelet activation, and MI especially in the case of H1N1 influenza infection.Item Open Access H3N2 influenza infection elicits more cross-reactive and less clonally expanded anti-hemagglutinin antibodies than influenza vaccination.(PloS one, 2011-01) Moody, M Anthony; Zhang, Ruijun; Walter, Emmanuel B; Woods, Christopher W; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; McClain, Micah T; Denny, Thomas N; Chen, Xi; Munshaw, Supriya; Marshall, Dawn J; Whitesides, John F; Drinker, Mark S; Amos, Joshua D; Gurley, Thaddeus C; Eudailey, Joshua A; Foulger, Andrew; DeRosa, Katherine R; Parks, Robert; Meyerhoff, R Ryan; Yu, Jae-Sung; Kozink, Daniel M; Barefoot, Brice E; Ramsburg, Elizabeth A; Khurana, Surender; Golding, Hana; Vandergrift, Nathan A; Alam, S Munir; Tomaras, Georgia D; Kepler, Thomas B; Kelsoe, Garnett; Liao, Hua-Xin; Haynes, Barton FDuring the recent H1N1 influenza pandemic, excess morbidity and mortality was seen in young but not older adults suggesting that prior infection with influenza strains may have protected older subjects. In contrast, a history of recent seasonal trivalent vaccine in younger adults was not associated with protection.To study hemagglutinin (HA) antibody responses in influenza immunization and infection, we have studied the day 7 plasma cell repertoires of subjects immunized with seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) and compared them to the plasma cell repertoires of subjects experimentally infected (EI) with influenza H3N2 A/Wisconsin/67/2005. The majority of circulating plasma cells after TIV produced influenza-specific antibodies, while most plasma cells after EI produced antibodies that did not react with influenza HA. While anti-HA antibodies from TIV subjects were primarily reactive with single or few HA strains, anti-HA antibodies from EI subjects were isolated that reacted with multiple HA strains. Plasma cell-derived anti-HA antibodies from TIV subjects showed more evidence of clonal expansion compared with antibodies from EI subjects. From an H3N2-infected subject, we isolated a 4-member clonal lineage of broadly cross-reactive antibodies that bound to multiple HA subtypes and neutralized both H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. This broad reactivity was not detected in post-infection plasma suggesting this broadly reactive clonal lineage was not immunodominant in this subject.The presence of broadly reactive subdominant antibody responses in some EI subjects suggests that improved vaccine designs that make broadly reactive antibody responses immunodominant could protect against novel influenza strains.Item Open Access Influenza vaccination of household contacts of newborns: a hospital-based strategy to increase vaccination rates.(Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol, 2010-10) Walter, Emmanuel B; Allred, Norma J; Swamy, Geeta K; Hellkamp, Anne S; Dolor, Rowena JWe implemented a hospital-based influenza vaccination program for household contacts of newborns. Among mothers not vaccinated prenatally, 44.7% were vaccinated through the program, as were 25.7% of fathers. A hospital-based program provided opportunities for vaccination of household contacts of newborns, thereby facilitating better adherence to national vaccination guidelines.Item Open Access International crises and global health electives: lessons for faculty and institutions.(Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges, 2010-10) Steiner, Beat D; Carlough, Martha; Dent, Georgette; Peña, Rodolfo; Morgan, Douglas RStudent participation in global health electives and community service initiatives is associated with a number of favorable outcomes, and student interest in participating in such experiences is high. Increasingly, medical schools are facilitating and supervising global health opportunities. The inherent risks and uncertainties of global community service deserve careful consideration as schools engage more actively in this area. This article presents how one institution managed three crises in three electives in a single year. The H1N1 flu epidemic impacted a group of students bound for Mexico, a political upheaval affected a student group working in Honduras, and a hurricane threatened a student group in Nicaragua. This article outlines lessons learned from responding to these crises. Well-defined institutional travel policies, clear communication plans in the event of an emergency, a responsible administrative entity for global experiences, and formal predeparture training for students and faculty can help institutions better respond to unpredictable events. A comprehensive examination of these lessons and reflections on how to institutionalize the various components may help other institutions prepare for such events and lessen negative impact on student learning.Item Open Access Modelling the linkage between influenza infection and cardiovascular events via thrombosis.(Scientific reports, 2020-08-31) McCarthy, Zachary; Xu, Shixin; Rahman, Ashrafur; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Corrales-Medina, Vicente F; Lee, Jason; Seet, Bruce T; Neame, Dion; Thommes, Edward; Heffernan, Jane; Chit, Ayman; Wu, JianhongThere is a heavy burden associated with influenza including all-cause hospitalization as well as severe cardiovascular and cardiorespiratory events. Influenza associated cardiac events have been linked to multiple biological pathways in a human host. To study the contribution of influenza virus infection to cardiovascular thrombotic events, we develop a dynamic model which incorporates some key elements of the host immune response, inflammatory response, and blood coagulation. We formulate these biological systems and integrate them into a cohesive modelling framework to show how blood clotting may be connected to influenza virus infection. With blood clot formation inside an artery resulting from influenza virus infection as the primary outcome of this integrated model, we demonstrate how blood clot severity may depend on circulating prothrombin levels. We also utilize our model to leverage clinical data to inform the threshold level of the inflammatory cytokine TNFα which initiates tissue factor induction and subsequent blood clotting. Our model provides a tool to explore how individual biological components contribute to blood clotting events in the presence of influenza infection, to identify individuals at risk of clotting based on their circulating prothrombin levels, and to guide the development of future vaccines to optimally interact with the immune system.Item Open Access Nasopharyngeal Protein Biomarkers of Acute Respiratory Virus Infection.(EBioMedicine, 2017-03) Burke, Thomas W; Henao, Ricardo; Soderblom, Erik; Tsalik, Ephraim L; Thompson, J Will; McClain, Micah T; Nichols, Marshall; Nicholson, Bradly P; Veldman, Timothy; Lucas, Joseph E; Moseley, M Arthur; Turner, Ronald B; Lambkin-Williams, Robert; Hero, Alfred O; Woods, Christopher W; Ginsburg, Geoffrey SInfection of respiratory mucosa with viral pathogens triggers complex immunologic events in the affected host. We sought to characterize this response through proteomic analysis of nasopharyngeal lavage in human subjects experimentally challenged with influenza A/H3N2 or human rhinovirus, and to develop targeted assays measuring peptides involved in this host response allowing classification of acute respiratory virus infection. Unbiased proteomic discovery analysis identified 3285 peptides corresponding to 438 unique proteins, and revealed that infection with H3N2 induces significant alterations in protein expression. These include proteins involved in acute inflammatory response, innate immune response, and the complement cascade. These data provide insights into the nature of the biological response to viral infection of the upper respiratory tract, and the proteins that are dysregulated by viral infection form the basis of signature that accurately classifies the infected state. Verification of this signature using targeted mass spectrometry in independent cohorts of subjects challenged with influenza or rhinovirus demonstrates that it performs with high accuracy (0.8623 AUROC, 75% TPR, 97.46% TNR). With further development as a clinical diagnostic, this signature may have utility in rapid screening for emerging infections, avoidance of inappropriate antibacterial therapy, and more rapid implementation of appropriate therapeutic and public health strategies.Item Open Access Phylodynamic inference and model assessment with approximate bayesian computation: influenza as a case study.(PLoS Comput Biol, 2012) Ratmann, O; Donker, G; Meijer, A; Fraser, C; Koelle, KA key priority in infectious disease research is to understand the ecological and evolutionary drivers of viral diseases from data on disease incidence as well as viral genetic and antigenic variation. We propose using a simulation-based, Bayesian method known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to fit and assess phylodynamic models that simulate pathogen evolution and ecology against summaries of these data. We illustrate the versatility of the method by analyzing two spatial models describing the phylodynamics of interpandemic human influenza virus subtype A(H3N2). The first model captures antigenic drift phenomenologically with continuously waning immunity, and the second epochal evolution model describes the replacement of major, relatively long-lived antigenic clusters. Combining features of long-term surveillance data from The Netherlands with features of influenza A (H3N2) hemagglutinin gene sequences sampled in northern Europe, key phylodynamic parameters can be estimated with ABC. Goodness-of-fit analyses reveal that the irregularity in interannual incidence and H3N2's ladder-like hemagglutinin phylogeny are quantitatively only reproduced under the epochal evolution model within a spatial context. However, the concomitant incidence dynamics result in a very large reproductive number and are not consistent with empirical estimates of H3N2's population level attack rate. These results demonstrate that the interactions between the evolutionary and ecological processes impose multiple quantitative constraints on the phylodynamic trajectories of influenza A(H3N2), so that sequence and surveillance data can be used synergistically. ABC, one of several data synthesis approaches, can easily interface a broad class of phylodynamic models with various types of data but requires careful calibration of the summaries and tolerance parameters.Item Open Access Polyclonal B cell differentiation and loss of gastrointestinal tract germinal centers in the earliest stages of HIV-1 infection.(PLoS Med, 2009-07-07) Levesque, Marc C; Moody, M Anthony; Hwang, Kwan-Ki; Marshall, Dawn J; Whitesides, John F; Amos, Joshua D; Gurley, Thaddeus C; Allgood, Sallie; Haynes, Benjamin B; Vandergrift, Nathan A; Plonk, Steven; Parker, Daniel C; Cohen, Myron S; Tomaras, Georgia D; Goepfert, Paul A; Shaw, George M; Schmitz, Jörn E; Eron, Joseph J; Shaheen, Nicholas J; Hicks, Charles B; Liao, Hua-Xin; Markowitz, Martin; Kelsoe, Garnett; Margolis, David M; Haynes, Barton FBACKGROUND: The antibody response to HIV-1 does not appear in the plasma until approximately 2-5 weeks after transmission, and neutralizing antibodies to autologous HIV-1 generally do not become detectable until 12 weeks or more after transmission. Moreover, levels of HIV-1-specific antibodies decline on antiretroviral treatment. The mechanisms of this delay in the appearance of anti-HIV-1 antibodies and of their subsequent rapid decline are not known. While the effect of HIV-1 on depletion of gut CD4(+) T cells in acute HIV-1 infection is well described, we studied blood and tissue B cells soon after infection to determine the effect of early HIV-1 on these cells. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In human participants, we analyzed B cells in blood as early as 17 days after HIV-1 infection, and in terminal ileum inductive and effector microenvironments beginning at 47 days after infection. We found that HIV-1 infection rapidly induced polyclonal activation and terminal differentiation of B cells in blood and in gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT) B cells. The specificities of antibodies produced by GALT memory B cells in acute HIV-1 infection (AHI) included not only HIV-1-specific antibodies, but also influenza-specific and autoreactive antibodies, indicating very early onset of HIV-1-induced polyclonal B cell activation. Follicular damage or germinal center loss in terminal ileum Peyer's patches was seen with 88% of follicles exhibiting B or T cell apoptosis and follicular lysis. CONCLUSIONS: Early induction of polyclonal B cell differentiation, coupled with follicular damage and germinal center loss soon after HIV-1 infection, may explain both the high rate of decline in HIV-1-induced antibody responses and the delay in plasma antibody responses to HIV-1. Please see later in the article for Editors' Summary.Item Open Access Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective.(Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2011-09) Carrasco, Luis R; Lee, Vernon J; Chen, Mark I; Matchar, David B; Thompson, James P; Cook, Alex RInfluenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.Item Open Access Temporal dynamics of host molecular responses differentiate symptomatic and asymptomatic influenza a infection.(PLoS Genet, 2011-08) Huang, Yongsheng; Zaas, Aimee K; Rao, Arvind; Dobigeon, Nicolas; Woolf, Peter J; Veldman, Timothy; Øien, N Christine; McClain, Micah T; Varkey, Jay B; Nicholson, Bradley; Carin, Lawrence; Kingsmore, Stephen; Kingsmore, Stephen; Woods, Christopher W; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; Hero, Alfred OExposure to influenza viruses is necessary, but not sufficient, for healthy human hosts to develop symptomatic illness. The host response is an important determinant of disease progression. In order to delineate host molecular responses that differentiate symptomatic and asymptomatic Influenza A infection, we inoculated 17 healthy adults with live influenza (H3N2/Wisconsin) and examined changes in host peripheral blood gene expression at 16 timepoints over 132 hours. Here we present distinct transcriptional dynamics of host responses unique to asymptomatic and symptomatic infections. We show that symptomatic hosts invoke, simultaneously, multiple pattern recognition receptors-mediated antiviral and inflammatory responses that may relate to virus-induced oxidative stress. In contrast, asymptomatic subjects tightly regulate these responses and exhibit elevated expression of genes that function in antioxidant responses and cell-mediated responses. We reveal an ab initio molecular signature that strongly correlates to symptomatic clinical disease and biomarkers whose expression patterns best discriminate early from late phases of infection. Our results establish a temporal pattern of host molecular responses that differentiates symptomatic from asymptomatic infections and reveals an asymptomatic host-unique non-passive response signature, suggesting novel putative molecular targets for both prognostic assessment and ameliorative therapeutic intervention in seasonal and pandemic influenza.Item Open Access The impact of host immune status on the within-host and population dynamics of antigenic immune escape.(J R Soc Interface, 2012-10-07) Luo, Shishi; Reed, Michael; Mattingly, Jonathan C; Koelle, KatiaAntigenically evolving pathogens such as influenza viruses are difficult to control owing to their ability to evade host immunity by producing immune escape variants. Experimental studies have repeatedly demonstrated that viral immune escape variants emerge more often from immunized hosts than from naive hosts. This empirical relationship between host immune status and within-host immune escape is not fully understood theoretically, nor has its impact on antigenic evolution at the population level been evaluated. Here, we show that this relationship can be understood as a trade-off between the probability that a new antigenic variant is produced and the level of viraemia it reaches within a host. Scaling up this intra-host level trade-off to a simple population level model, we obtain a distribution for variant persistence times that is consistent with influenza A/H3N2 antigenic variant data. At the within-host level, our results show that target cell limitation, or a functional equivalent, provides a parsimonious explanation for how host immune status drives the generation of immune escape mutants. At the population level, our analysis also offers an alternative explanation for the observed tempo of antigenic evolution, namely that the production rate of immune escape variants is driven by the accumulation of herd immunity. Overall, our results suggest that disease control strategies should be further assessed by considering the impact that increased immunity--through vaccination--has on the production of new antigenic variants.