Browsing by Subject "Life Expectancy"
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Item Open Access Constant mortality and fertility over age in Hydra.(Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2015-12-22) Schaible, Ralf; Scheuerlein, Alexander; Dańko, Maciej J; Gampe, Jutta; Martínez, Daniel E; Vaupel, James WSenescence, the increase in mortality and decline in fertility with age after maturity, was thought to be inevitable for all multicellular species capable of repeated breeding. Recent theoretical advances and compilations of data suggest that mortality and fertility trajectories can go up or down, or remain constant with age, but the data are scanty and problematic. Here, we present compelling evidence for constant age-specific death and reproduction rates in Hydra, a basal metazoan, in a set of experiments comprising more than 3.9 million days of observations of individual Hydra. Our data show that 2,256 Hydra from two closely related species in two laboratories in 12 cohorts, with cohort age ranging from 0 to more than 41 y, have extremely low, constant rates of mortality. Fertility rates for Hydra did not systematically decline with advancing age. This falsifies the universality of the theories of the evolution of aging that posit that all species deteriorate with age after maturity. The nonsenescent life history of Hydra implies levels of maintenance and repair that are sufficient to prevent the accumulation of damage for at least decades after maturity, far longer than the short life expectancy of Hydra in the wild. A high proportion of stem cells, constant and rapid cell turnover, few cell types, a simple body plan, and the fact that the germ line is not segregated from the soma are characteristics of Hydra that may make nonsenescence feasible. Nonsenescence may be optimal because lifetime reproduction may be enhanced more by extending adult life spans than by increasing daily fertility.Item Open Access Demographic and Socioeconomic Disparities in Life Expectancy With Hearing Impairment in the United States.(The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences, 2021-04) West, Jessica S; Lynch, Scott MObjectives
Hearing impairment is one of the most common disabilities among older people, and its prevalence will increase as the U.S. population ages. However, little is known about social disparities in onset or transitions into and out of hearing impairment, nor how these transitions impact years of life to be spent impaired.Method
We investigate the number of years an "average" person can expect to live with and without hearing impairment after age 50; sex, race, educational, and regional differences in these expectancies; and the implication of hearing impairment for remaining life expectancy. Bayesian multistate life table methods are applied to 9 waves of data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2014) to investigate social disparities in life expectancy with hearing impairment (n = 20,200) for the general population, people hearing impaired at age 50, and people hearing unimpaired at age 50.Results
Men, Hispanics, persons with less educational attainment, and those born in the south can expect to live a larger proportion of their remaining lives hearing impaired. Although transitions from hearing impaired to unimpaired occur, those with some hearing impairment at age 50 can expect to live more years with hearing impairment, and hearing impairment does not shorten remaining life expectancy.Discussion
Significant sociodemographic disparities in hearing impaired life expectancy exist. In contrast to past research, we find that hearing impairment does not affect total life expectancy. Future research should consider the consequences of hearing impairment for years to be lived with other age-related and potentially downstream health outcomes.Item Open Access Gender, educational and ethnic differences in active life expectancy among older Singaporeans.(Geriatrics & gerontology international, 2016-04) Chan, Angelique; Malhotra, Rahul; Matchar, David B; Ma, Stefan; Saito, YasuhikoAim
The aim of the present study was to compute total life expectancy (TLE), active life expectancy (ALE) and inactive life expectancy among older Singaporeans by gender, education and ethnicity.Methods
Data from a longitudinal survey of older Singaporeans were used. No difficulty in carrying out activities of daily living or instrumental activities of daily living was considered as "active." Transition probabilities across health states (active/inactive/dead) were assessed to develop multistate life tables, which estimated TLE, ALE and inactive life expectancy.Results
At age 60 years, women, versus men, had significantly higher TLE (25.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 24.0-27.8 vs 21.6, 95% CI 20.1-23.1), but similar ALE (18.1, 95% CI 17.0-19.2 vs 18.9, 95% CI 17.7-20.2). Those with high (secondary or higher), versus low (primary or less), education had significantly higher TLE (28.5, 95% CI 25.0-32.0 vs 22.5, 95% CI 21.1-23.9) and ALE (23.5, 95% CI 21.2-25.7 vs 17.1, 95% CI 16.1-18.0) at age 60 years. Those of Chinese, versus non-Chinese, ethnicity had significantly higher ALE at age 60 years (19.4, 95% CI 18.4-20.3 vs 15.0, 95% CI 13.4-16.7).Conclusion
Unlike Western nations, there was no gender difference in ALE among older adults in Singapore. However, difference in ALE by education among older Singaporeans was similar to that observed in Western societies. Policies focusing specifically on improving women's health at all ages, in addition to policies that increase population education levels, are promising approaches to improving ALE. Recognizing ethnic differences in ALE will help target policies that increase ALE in multicultural societies.Item Open Access Global and regional burden of cancer in 2016 arising from occupational exposure to selected carcinogens: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.(Occupational and environmental medicine, 2020-03) GBD 2016 Occupational Carcinogens CollaboratorsObjectives
This study provides a detailed analysis of the global and regional burden of cancer due to occupational carcinogens from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study.Methods
The burden of cancer due to 14 International Agency for Research on Cancer Group 1 occupational carcinogens was estimated using the population attributable fraction, based on past population exposure prevalence and relative risks from the literature. The results were used to calculate attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).Results
There were an estimated 349 000 (95% Uncertainty Interval 269 000 to 427 000) deaths and 7.2 (5.8 to 8.6) million DALYs in 2016 due to exposure to the included occupational carcinogens-3.9% (3.2% to 4.6%) of all cancer deaths and 3.4% (2.7% to 4.0%) of all cancer DALYs; 79% of deaths were of males and 88% were of people aged 55 -79 years. Lung cancer accounted for 86% of the deaths, mesothelioma for 7.9% and laryngeal cancer for 2.1%. Asbestos was responsible for the largest number of deaths due to occupational carcinogens (63%); other important risk factors were secondhand smoke (14%), silica (14%) and diesel engine exhaust (5%). The highest mortality rates were in high-income regions, largely due to asbestos-related cancers, whereas in other regions cancer deaths from secondhand smoke, silica and diesel engine exhaust were more prominent. From 1990 to 2016, there was a decrease in the rate for deaths (-10%) and DALYs (-15%) due to exposure to occupational carcinogens.Conclusions
Work-related carcinogens are responsible for considerable disease burden worldwide. The results provide guidance for prevention and control initiatives.Item Open Access Global and regional burden of disease and injury in 2016 arising from occupational exposures: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.(Occupational and environmental medicine, 2020-03) GBD 2016 Occupational Risk Factors CollaboratorsOBJECTIVES:This study provides an overview of the influence of occupational risk factors on the global burden of disease as estimated by the occupational component of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study. METHODS:The GBD 2016 study estimated the burden in terms of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) arising from the effects of occupational risk factors (carcinogens; asthmagens; particulate matter, gases and fumes (PMGF); secondhand smoke (SHS); noise; ergonomic risk factors for low back pain; risk factors for injury). A population attributable fraction (PAF) approach was used for most risk factors. RESULTS:In 2016, globally, an estimated 1.53 (95% uncertainty interval 1.39-1.68) million deaths and 76.1 (66.3-86.3) million DALYs were attributable to the included occupational risk factors, accounting for 2.8% of deaths and 3.2% of DALYs from all causes. Most deaths were attributable to PMGF, carcinogens (particularly asbestos), injury risk factors and SHS. Most DALYs were attributable to injury risk factors and ergonomic exposures. Men and persons 55 years or older were most affected. PAFs ranged from 26.8% for low back pain from ergonomic risk factors and 19.6% for hearing loss from noise to 3.4% for carcinogens. DALYs per capita were highest in Oceania, Southeast Asia and Central sub-Saharan Africa. On a per capita basis, between 1990 and 2016 there was an overall decrease of about 31% in deaths and 25% in DALYs. CONCLUSIONS:Occupational exposures continue to cause an important health burden worldwide, justifying the need for ongoing prevention and control initiatives.Item Open Access Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.(Lancet (London, England), 2018-11) GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE CollaboratorsBACKGROUND:How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. METHODS:We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. FINDINGS:Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). INTERPRETATION:With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Item Open Access Losses of expected lifetime in the United States and other developed countries: methods and empirical analyses.(Demography, 2011-02) Shkolnikov, Vladimir M; Andreev, Evgeny M; Zhang, Zhen; Oeppen, James; Vaupel, James WPatterns of diversity in age at death are examined using e (†), a dispersion measure that equals the average expected lifetime lost at death. We apply two methods for decomposing differences in e (†). The first method estimates the contributions of average levels of mortality and mortality age structures. The second (and newly developed) method returns components produced by differences between age- and cause-specific mortality rates. The United States is close to England and Wales in mean life expectancy but has higher life expectancy losses and lacks mortality compression. The difference is determined by mortality age structures, whereas the role of mortality levels is minor. This is related to excess mortality at ages under 65 from various causes in the United States. Regression on 17 country-series suggests that e (†) correlates with income inequality across countries but not across time. This result can be attributed to dissimilarity between the age- and cause-of-death structures of temporal mortality reduction and intercountry mortality variation. It also suggests that factors affecting overall mortality decrease differ from those responsible for excess lifetime losses in the United States compared with other countries. The latter can be related to weaknesses of health system and other factors resulting in premature death from heart diseases, amenable causes, accidents and violence.Item Open Access Management of prostate cancer in older men: recommendations of a working group of the International Society of Geriatric Oncology.(BJU Int, 2010-08) Droz, Jean-Pierre; Balducci, Lodovico; Bolla, Michel; Emberton, Mark; Fitzpatrick, John M; Joniau, Steven; Kattan, Michael W; Monfardini, Silvio; Moul, Judd W; Naeim, Arash; van Poppel, Hendrik; Saad, Fred; Sternberg, Cora NProstate cancer is the most prevalent cancer in men and predominantly affects older men (aged >or=70 years). The median age at diagnosis is 68 years; overall, two-thirds of prostate cancer-related deaths occur in men aged >or=75 years. With the exponential ageing of the population and the increasing life-expectancy in developed countries, the burden of prostate cancer is expected to increase dramatically in the future. To date, no specific guidelines on the management of prostate cancer in older men have been published. The International Society of Geriatric Oncology (SIOG) conducted a systematic bibliographic search based on screening, diagnostic procedures and treatment options for localized and advanced prostate cancer, to develop a proposal for recommendations that should provide the highest standard of care for older men with prostate cancer. The consensus of the SIOG Prostate Cancer Task Force is that older men with prostate cancer should be managed according to their individual health status, which is mainly driven by the severity of associated comorbid conditions, and not according to chronological age. Existing international recommendations (European Association of Urology, National Comprehensive Cancer Network, and American Urological Association) are the backbone for localized and advanced prostate cancer treatment, but need to be adapted to patient health status. Based on a rapid and simple evaluation, patients can be classified into four different groups: 1, 'Healthy' patients (controlled comorbidity, fully independent in daily living activities, no malnutrition) should receive the same treatment as younger patients; 2, 'Vulnerable' patients (reversible impairment) should receive standard treatment after medical intervention; 3, 'Frail' patients (irreversible impairment) should receive adapted treatment; 4, Patients who are 'too sick' with 'terminal illness' should receive only symptomatic palliative treatment.Item Open Access [More people live to be very old and with a better functioning].(Ugeskr Laeger, 2013-10-07) Christensen, Kaare; Jeune, Bernard; Andersen-Ranberg, Karen; Vaupel, James WDeath rates for 80+-year-olds are now half of what they were after WWII. The chance of living past 90 years has gone up by roughly 30% per decade for people born in Denmark in 1895, 1905, and 1915 - and the later cohorts are functioning better physically and cognitively. Centenarians are on average functioning physically and cognitively as well as 92-93-year-olds due to selective mortality. A steep increase in the frequency of hospitalization and surgical procedure among 85-100-year-olds is occurring, but there is a lack of knowledge about treatment effects and side effects among the oldest-old.Item Open Access Quantification of biological aging in young adults.(Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2015-07-28) Belsky, Daniel W; Caspi, Avshalom; Houts, Renate; Cohen, Harvey J; Corcoran, David L; Danese, Andrea; Harrington, HonaLee; Israel, Salomon; Levine, Morgan E; Schaefer, Jonathan D; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Ben; Yashin, Anatoli I; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie EAntiaging therapies show promise in model organism research. Translation to humans is needed to address the challenges of an aging global population. Interventions to slow human aging will need to be applied to still-young individuals. However, most human aging research examines older adults, many with chronic disease. As a result, little is known about aging in young humans. We studied aging in 954 young humans, the Dunedin Study birth cohort, tracking multiple biomarkers across three time points spanning their third and fourth decades of life. We developed and validated two methods by which aging can be measured in young adults, one cross-sectional and one longitudinal. Our longitudinal measure allows quantification of the pace of coordinated physiological deterioration across multiple organ systems (e.g., pulmonary, periodontal, cardiovascular, renal, hepatic, and immune function). We applied these methods to assess biological aging in young humans who had not yet developed age-related diseases. Young individuals of the same chronological age varied in their "biological aging" (declining integrity of multiple organ systems). Already, before midlife, individuals who were aging more rapidly were less physically able, showed cognitive decline and brain aging, self-reported worse health, and looked older. Measured biological aging in young adults can be used to identify causes of aging and evaluate rejuvenation therapies.Item Open Access Regional differences in the impact of diabetes on population health in the USA.(Journal of epidemiology and community health, 2021-01) Zang, Emma; Lynch, Scott M; West, JessicaBackground
To evaluate regional disparities in the influence of diabetes on population health, we examine life expectancies at age 50 between population with diabetes and healthy population and life quality among the population with diabetes among native-born Americans by birth region and current residence.Methods
Using data on a cohort of 17 686 native-born individuals from the Health and Retirement Survey (1998-2014), we applied a Bayesian multistate life table method to estimate life expectancies at age 50 between population with diabetes and healthy population by each birth/current region combination. We further estimate the proportion of life remaining without either chronic conditions or disabilities as a quality of life measure and the probabilities that one region is worse than the other in terms of different health outcomes.Results
At age 50, persons with diabetes (PWD) were expected to live on average 5.8-10.8 years less than their healthy equivalents across regions. Diabetes had the greatest influence on life expectancy (LE) for older adults who lived in the South at the time of interviews. PWD born in the South were more likely to have developed chronic conditions or disabilities and spent greater proportions of life with these two issues compared to other regions.Conclusion
Diabetes is a significant threat to LE and healthy LE in the USA, particularly for people born or living in the South.Item Open Access Research versus Rhetoric.(Gerontology, 2013) Vaupel, James W; Rau, RolandLimited to 1,000 words, we address some serious technical mistakes and factual errors, as well as the misleading quotations in the section of Olshansky's and Carnes' article that attacks some of our joint research.Item Open Access Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's life expectancy.(Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2016-04-12) Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Rau, Roland; Jeune, Bernard; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Lenart, Adam; Christensen, Kaare; Vaupel, James WHealth conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects' relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975-2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915-1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects.Item Open Access Sex differences in health and mortality in Moscow and Denmark.(Eur J Epidemiol, 2014-04) Oksuzyan, A; Shkolnikova, M; Vaupel, JW; Christensen, K; Shkolnikov, VMIn high income countries females outlive men, although they generally report worse health, the so-called male-female health-survival paradox. Russia has one of the world's largest sex difference in life expectancy with a male disadvantage of more than 10 years. We compare components of the paradox between Denmark and Moscow by examining sex differences in mortality and several health measures. The Human Mortality Database and the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database were used to examine sex differences in all-cause death rates in Denmark, Russia, and Moscow in 2007-2008. Self-reported health data were obtained from the Study of Middle-Aged Danish Twins (n = 4,314), the Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins (n = 4,731), and the study of Stress, Aging, and Health in Russia (n = 1,800). In both Moscow and Denmark there was a consistent female advantage at ages 55-89 years in survival and a male advantage in self-rated health, physical functioning, and depression symptomatology. Only on cognitive tests males performed similarly to or worse than women. Nevertheless, Muscovite males had more than twice higher mortality at ages 55-69 years compared to Muscovite women, almost double the ratio in Denmark. The present study showed that despite similar directions of sex differences in health and mortality in Moscow and Denmark, the male-female health-survival paradox is very pronounced in Moscow suggesting a stronger sex-specific disconnect between health indicators and mortality among middle-aged and young-old Muscovites.Item Open Access Steep increase in best-practice cohort life expectancy.(Popul Dev Rev, 2011) Shkolnikov, Vladimir M; Jdanov, Dmitri A; Andreev, Evgeny M; Vaupel, James WWe analyze trends in best-practice life expectancy among female cohorts born from 1870 to 1950. Cohorts experience declining rather than constant death rates, and cohort life expectancy usually exceeds period life expectancy. Unobserved mortality rates in non-extinct cohorts are estimated using the Lee-Carter model for mortality in 1960–2008. Best-practice cohort and period life expectancies increased nearly linearly. Across cohorts born from 1870 to 1920 the annual increase in cohort length of life was 0.43 years. Across calendar years from 1870 to 2008, the annual increase was 0.28 years. Cohort life expectancy increased from 53.7 years in the 1870 cohort to 83.8 years in the 1950 cohort. The corresponding cohort/period longevity gap increased from 1.2 to 10.3 years. Among younger cohorts, survival to advanced ages is substantially higher than could have been anticipated by period mortality regimes when these cohorts were young or middle-aged. A large proportion of the additional expected years of life are being lived at ages 65 and older. This substantially changes the balance between the stages of the life cycle.Item Open Access Survival differences among native-born and foreign-born older adults in the United States.(PLoS One, 2012) Dupre, Matthew E; Gu, Danan; Vaupel, James WBACKGROUND: Studies show that the U.S. foreign-born population has lower mortality than the native-born population before age 65. Until recently, the lack of data prohibited reliable comparisons of U.S. mortality by nativity at older ages. This study provides reliable estimates of U.S. foreign-born and native-born mortality at ages 65 and older at the end of the 20(th) century. Life expectancies of the U.S. foreign born are compared to other developed nations and the foreign-born contribution to total life expectancy (TLE) in the United States is assessed. METHODS: Newly available data from Medicare Part B records linked with Social Security Administration files are used to estimate period life tables for nearly all U.S. adults aged 65 and older in 1995. Age-specific survival differences and life expectancies are examined in 1995 by sex, race, and place of birth. RESULTS: Foreign-born men and women had lower mortality at almost every age from 65 to 100 compared to native-born men and women. Survival differences by nativity were substantially greater for blacks than whites. Foreign-born blacks had the longest life expectancy of all population groups (18.73 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 18.15-19.30] years at age 65 for men and 22.76 [95% CI, 22.28-23.23] years at age 65 for women). The foreign-born population increased TLE in the United States at older ages, and by international comparison, the U.S. foreign born were among the longest-lived persons in the world. CONCLUSION: Survival estimates based on reliable Medicare data confirm that foreign-born adults have longer life expectancy at older ages than native-born adults in the United States.Item Open Access The quadratic hazard model for analyzing longitudinal data on aging, health, and the life span.(Phys Life Rev, 2012-06) Yashin, AI; Arbeev, KG; Akushevich, I; Kulminski, A; Ukraintseva, SV; Stallard, E; Land, KCA better understanding of processes and mechanisms linking human aging with changes in health status and survival requires methods capable of analyzing new data that take into account knowledge about these processes accumulated in the field. In this paper, we describe an approach to analyses of longitudinal data based on the use of stochastic process models of human aging, health, and longevity which allows for incorporating state of the art advances in aging research into the model structure. In particular, the model incorporates the notions of resistance to stresses, adaptive capacity, and "optimal" (normal) physiological states. To capture the effects of exposure to persistent external disturbances, the notions of allostatic adaptation and allostatic load are introduced. These notions facilitate the description and explanation of deviations of individuals' physiological indices from their normal states, which increase the chances of disease development and death. The model provides a convenient conceptual framework for comprehensive systemic analyses of aging-related changes in humans using longitudinal data and linking these changes with genotyping profiles, morbidity, and mortality risks. The model is used for developing new statistical methods for analyzing longitudinal data on aging, health, and longevity.Item Open Access Trade-offs in the effects of the apolipoprotein E polymorphism on risks of diseases of the heart, cancer, and neurodegenerative disorders: insights on mechanisms from the Long Life Family Study.(Rejuvenation Res, 2015-04) Kulminski, Alexander M; Arbeev, Konstantin G; Culminskaya, Irina; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V; Stallard, Eric; Province, Michael A; Yashin, Anatoli IThe lack of evolutionary established mechanisms linking genes to age-related traits makes the problem of genetic susceptibility to health span inherently complex. One complicating factor is genetic trade-off. Here we focused on long-living participants of the Long Life Family Study (LLFS), their offspring, and spouses to: (1) Elucidate whether trade-offs in the effect of the apolipoprotein E e4 allele documented in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) are a more general phenomenon, and (2) explore potential mechanisms generating age- and gender-specific trade-offs in the effect of the e4 allele on cancer, diseases of the heart, and neurodegenerative disorders assessed retrospectively in the LLFS populations. The e4 allele can diminish risks of cancer and diseases of the heart and confer risks of diseases of the heart in a sex-, age-, and LLFS-population-specific manner. A protective effect against cancer is seen in older long-living men and, potentially, their sons (>75 years, relative risk [RR]>75=0.48, p=0.086), which resembles our findings in the FHS. The protective effect against diseases of the heart is limited to long-living older men (RR>76=0.50, p=0.016), as well. A detrimental effect against diseases of the heart is characteristic for a normal LLFS population of male spouses and is specific for myocardial infarction (RR=3.07, p=2.1×10(-3)). These trade-offs are likely associated with two inherently different mechanisms, including disease-specific (detrimental; characteristic for a normal male population) and systemic, aging-related (protective; characteristic for older long-living men) mechanisms. The e4 allele confers risks of neurological disorders in men and women (RR=1.98, p=0.046). The results highlight the complex role of the e4 allele in genetic susceptibility to health span.