Browsing by Subject "Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences"

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Open Access
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment
(Environmental Research Letters, 2016-03-07) Abbott, BW; Jones, JB; Schuur, EAG; Chapin, FS; Bowden, WB; Bret-Harte, MS; Epstein, HE; Flannigan, MD; Harms, TK; Hollingsworth, TN; Mack, MC; McGuire, AD; Natali, SM; Rocha, AV; Tank, SE; Turetsky, MR; Vonk, JE; Wickland, KP; Aiken, GR; Alexander, HD; Amon, RMW; Benscoter, BW; Bergeron, Y; Bishop, K; Blarquez, O; Bond-Lamberty, B; Breen, AL; Buffam, I; Cai, Y; Carcaillet, C; Carey, SK; Chen, JM; Chen, HYH; Christensen, TR; Cooper, LW; Cornelissen, JHC; De Groot, WJ; Deluca, TH; Dorrepaal, E; Fetcher, N; Finlay, JC; Forbes, BC; French, NHF; Gauthier, S; Girardin, MP; Goetz, SJ; Goldammer, JG; Gough, L; Grogan, P; Guo, L; Higuera, PE; Hinzman, L; Hu, FS; Hugelius, G; Jafarov, EE; Jandt, R; Johnstone, JF; Karlsson, J; Kasischke, ES; Kattner, G; Kelly, R; Keuper, F; Kling, GW; Kortelainen, P; Kouki, J; Kuhry, P; Laudon, H; Laurion, I; MacDonald, RW; Mann, PJ; Martikainen, PJ; McClelland, JW; Molau, U; Oberbauer, SF; Olefeldt, D; Paré, D; Parisien, MA; Payette, S; Peng, C; Pokrovsky, OS; Rastetter, EB; Raymond, PA; Raynolds, MK; Rein, G; Reynolds, JF; Robards, M; Rogers, BM; Schdel, C; Schaefer, K; Schmidt, IK; Shvidenko, A; Sky, J; Spencer, RGM; Starr, G; Striegl, RG; Teisserenc, R; Tranvik, LJ; Virtanen, T; Welker, JM; Zimov, S
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
Open Access
Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °C
(Nature Climate Change, 2016-05) Shindell, DT; Lee, Y; Faluvegi, G
© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 °C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public health benefits have been quantified for less-aggressive potential emissions-reduction policies (for example, refs,), but researchers have not yet fully explored the multiple benefits of reductions consistent with 2 °C. We examine the impacts of such highly ambitious scenarios for clean energy and vehicles. US transportation emissions reductions avoid ∼0.03 °C global warming in 2030 (0.15 °C in 2100), whereas energy emissions reductions avoid ∼0.05-0.07 °C 2030 warming (∼0.25 °C in 2100). Nationally, however, clean energy policies produce climate disbenefits including warmer summers (although these would be eliminated by the remote effects of similar policies if they were undertaken elsewhere). The policies also greatly reduce damaging ambient particulate matter and ozone. By 2030, clean energy policies could prevent ∼175,000 premature deaths, with ∼22,000 (11,000-96,000; 95% confidence) fewer annually thereafter, whereas clean transportation could prevent ∼120,000 premature deaths and ∼14,000 (9,000-52,000) annually thereafter. Near-term national benefits are valued at ∼US$250 billion (140 billion to 1,050 billion) per year, which is likely to exceed implementation costs. Including longer-term, worldwide climate impacts, benefits roughly quintuple, becoming ∼5-10 times larger than estimated implementation costs. Achieving the benefits, however, would require both larger and broader emissions reductions than those in current legislation or regulations.
Open Access
Deforestation risks posed by oil palm expansion in the Peruvian Amazon
(Environmental Research Letters, 2018-11-01) Vijay, V; Reid, CD; Finer, M; Jenkins, CN; Pimm, SL
Further expansion of agriculture in the tropics is likely to accelerate the loss of biodiversity. One crop of concern to conservation is African oil palm (Elaeis guineensis). We examined recent deforestation associated with oil palm in the Peruvian Amazon within the context of the region's other crops. We found more area under oil palm cultivation (845 km2) than did previous studies. While this comprises less than 4% of the cropland in the region, it accounted for 11% of the deforestation from agricultural expansion from 2007-2013. Patches of oil palm agriculture were larger and more spatially clustered than for other crops, potentially increasing their impact on local habitat fragmentation. Modeling deforestation risk for oil palm expansion using climatic and edaphic factors showed that sites at lower elevations, with higher precipitation, and lower slopes than those typically used for intensive agriculture are at long-term risk of deforestation from oil palm agriculture. Within areas at long-term risks, based on CART models, areas near urban centers, roads, and previously deforested areas are at greatest short-term risk of deforestation. Existing protected areas and officially recognized indigenous territories cover large areas at long-term risk of deforestation for oil palm (>40%). Less than 7% of these areas are under strict (IUCN I-IV) protection. Based on these findings, we suggest targeted monitoring for oil palm deforestation as well as strengthening and expanding protected areas to conserve specific habitats.
Open Access
Impacts of increased variability in precipitation and air temperature on net primary productivity of the Tibetan Plateau: A modeling analysis
(Climatic Change, 2013-07-01) Ye, JS; Reynolds, JF; Sun, GJ; Li, FM
We analyzed interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and air temperature over a 40-year period (1969-2008) for 11 sites along a precipitation gradient on the Tibetan Plateau. The observed IAV for both precipitation and air temperature decreases with increasing mean annual precipitation. Using Biome-BGC, a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated net primary production (NPP) along this gradient and find that the IAV of NPP is positively correlated to the IAV of precipitation and temperature. Following projected climate change scenarios for the Tibetan Plateau, our simulations suggest that with increasing IAV of precipitation and temperature, the IAV of NPP will also increase and that climate thresholds exist that, if surpassed, lead to ecosystem die-off. The impacts of these changes on ecosystem processes and climate-vegetation feedbacks on the rapidly warming Tibetan Plateau are potentially quite significant. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Open Access
Loss of deep roots limits biogenic agents of soil development that are only partially restored by decades of forest regeneration
(Elementa, 2018-01-01) Billings, SA; Hirmas, D; Sullivan, PL; Lehmeier, CA; Bagchi, S; Min, K; Brecheisen, Z; Hauser, E; Stair, R; Flournoy, R; De Richter, DB
© 2018 The Author(s). Roots and associated microbes generate acid-forming CO2 and organic acids and accelerate mineral weathering deep within Earth's critical zone (CZ). At the Calhoun CZ Observatory in the USA's Southern Piedmont, we tested the hypothesis that deforestation-induced deep root losses reduce root- and microbially-mediated weathering agents well below maximum root density (to 5 m), and impart land-use legacies even after ∼70 y of forest regeneration. In forested plots, root density declined with depth to 200 cm; in cultivated plots, roots approached zero at depths >70 cm. Below 70 cm, root densities in old-growth forests averaged 2.1 times those in regenerating forests. Modeled root distributions suggest declines in density with depth were steepest in agricultural plots, and least severe in old-growth forests. Root densities influenced biogeochemical environments in multiple ways. Microbial community composition varied with land use from surface horizons to 500 cm; relative abundance of root-associated bacteria was greater in old-growth soils than in regenerating forests, particularly at 100-150 cm. At 500 cm in old-growth forests, salt-extractable organic C (EOC), an organic acid proxy, was 8.8 and 12.5 times that in regenerating forest and agricultural soils, respectively. The proportion of soil organic carbon comprised of EOC was greater in old-growth forests (20.0 ± 2.6%) compared to regenerating forests (2.1 ± 1.1) and agricultural soils (1.9 ± 0.9%). Between 20 and 500 cm, [EOC] increased more with root density in old-growth relative to regenerating forests. At 300 cm, in situ growing season [CO2] was significantly greater in old-growth forests relative to regenerating forests and cultivated plots; at 300 and 500 cm, cultivated soil [CO2] was significantly lower than in forests. Microbially-respired δ13C-CO2 suggests that microbes may rely partially on crop residue even after ∼70 y of forest regeneration. We assert that forest conversion to frequently disturbed ecosystems limits deep roots and reduces biotic generation of downward-propagating weathering agents.
Open Access
Mercury Sourcing and Sequestration in Weathering Profiles at Six Critical Zone Observatories
(Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2018-10-01) Richardson, JB; Aguirre, AA; Buss, HL; Toby O'Geen, A; Gu, X; Rempe, DM; Richter, DDB
©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Mercury sequestration in regolith (soils + weathered bedrock) is an important ecosystem service of the critical zone. This has largely remained unexplored, due to the difficulty of sample collection and the assumption that Hg is predominantly sequestered within surface soils (here we define as 0–0.3 m). We measured Hg concentrations and inventories in weathering profiles at six Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs): Boulder Creek in the Front Range of Colorado, Calhoun in the South Carolina Piedmont, Eel River in coastal northern California, Luquillo in the tropical montane forest of Puerto Rico, Shale Hills of the valley and ridges of central Pennsylvania, and Southern Sierra in the Sierra Nevada range of California. Surface soils had higher Hg concentrations than the deepest regolith samples, except for Eel River, which had lower Hg concentrations in surface soils compared to regolith. Using Ti normalization, CZOs with <12% rock-derived Hg (Boulder Creek, Calhoun, and Southern Sierra) had Hg peaks between 1.5 and 8.0 m in depth. At CZOs with >50% rock-derived Hg, Eel River Hg concentrations and pools were greatest at >4.0 m in the weathering profile, while Luquillo and Shale Hills had peaks at the surface that diminished within 1.0 m of the surface. Hg and total organic C were only significantly correlated in regolith at Luquillo and Shale Hills CZOs, suggesting that Hg sorption to organic matter may be less dominant than clays or Fe(II) sulfides in deeper regolith. Our results demonstrate the importance of Hg sequestration in deep regolith, below typical soil sampling depths.
Open Access
Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions.
(Nature climate change, 2018-01) Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary
Societal risks increase as Earth warms, but also for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate even if they lead to identical warming [1]. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations [2]. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits [3, 4]. However, 2°C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5°C trajectories require elimination of most fossil fuel related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing ambition of 21st century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC; an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2°C scenario to 1.5°C or could achieve 2°C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153±43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.
Open Access
Stratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene
(Earth's Future, 2016-08-01) Steffen, W; Leinfelder, R; Zalasiewicz, J; Waters, CN; Williams, M; Summerhayes, C; Barnosky, AD; Cearreta, A; Crutzen, P; Edgeworth, M; Ellis, EC; Fairchild, IJ; Galuszka, A; Grinevald, J; Haywood, A; Ivar do Sul, J; Jeandel, C; McNeill, JR; Odada, E; Oreskes, N; Revkin, A; Richter, DDB; Syvitski, J; Vidas, D; Wagreich, M; Wing, SL; Wolfe, AP; Schellnhuber, HJ
© 2016 The Authors. Stratigraphy provides insights into the evolution and dynamics of the Earth System over its long history. With recent developments in Earth System science, changes in Earth System dynamics can now be observed directly and projected into the near future. An integration of the two approaches provides powerful insights into the nature and significance of contemporary changes to Earth. From both perspectives, the Earth has been pushed out of the Holocene Epoch by human activities, with the mid-20th century a strong candidate for the start date of the Anthropocene, the proposed new epoch in Earth history. Here we explore two contrasting scenarios for the future of the Anthropocene, recognizing that the Earth System has already undergone a substantial transition away from the Holocene state. A rapid shift of societies toward the UN Sustainable Development Goals could stabilize the Earth System in a state with more intense interglacial conditions than in the late Quaternary climate regime and with little further biospheric change. In contrast, a continuation of the present Anthropocene trajectory of growing human pressures will likely lead to biotic impoverishment and a much warmer climate with a significant loss of polar ice.
Open Access
The Anthropocene: A conspicuous stratigraphical signal of anthropogenic changes in production and consumption across the biosphere
(Earth's Future, 2016-03-01) Williams, M; Zalasiewicz, J; Waters, CN; Edgeworth, M; Bennett, C; Barnosky, AD; Ellis, EC; Ellis, MA; Cearreta, A; Haff, PK; Ivar Do Sul, JA; Leinfelder, R; McNeill, JR; Odada, E; Oreskes, N; Revkin, A; Richter, DDB; Steffen, W; Summerhayes, C; Syvitski, JP; Vidas, D; Wagreich, M; Wing, SL; Wolfe, AP; Zhisheng, A
© 2016 The Authors. Biospheric relationships between production and consumption of biomass have been resilient to changes in the Earth system over billions of years. This relationship has increased in its complexity, from localized ecosystems predicated on anaerobic microbial production and consumption to a global biosphere founded on primary production from oxygenic photoautotrophs, through the evolution of Eukarya, metazoans, and the complexly networked ecosystems of microbes, animals, fungi, and plants that characterize the Phanerozoic Eon (the last 541 million years of Earth history). At present, one species, Homo sapiens, is refashioning this relationship between consumption and production in the biosphere with unknown consequences. This has left a distinctive stratigraphy of the production and consumption of biomass, of natural resources, and of produced goods. This can be traced through stone tool technologies and geochemical signals, later unfolding into a diachronous signal of technofossils and human bioturbation across the planet, leading to stratigraphically almost isochronous signals developing by the mid-20th century. These latter signals may provide an invaluable resource for informing and constraining a formal Anthropocene chronostratigraphy, but are perhaps yet more important as tracers of a biosphere state that is characterized by a geologically unprecedented pattern of global energy flow that is now pervasively influenced and mediated by humans, and which is necessary for maintaining the complexity of modern human societies.
Open Access
Topographic variability and the influence of soil erosion on the carbon cycle
(Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2016-05-01) Dialynas, YG; Bastola, S; Bras, RL; Billings, SA; Markewitz, D; Richter, DDB
©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Soil erosion, particularly that caused by agriculture, is closely linked to the global carbon (C) cycle. There is a wide range of contrasting global estimates of how erosion alters soil-atmosphere C exchange. This can be partly attributed to limited understanding of how geomorphology, topography, and management practices affect erosion and oxidation of soil organic C (SOC). This work presents a physically based approach that stresses the heterogeneity at fine spatial scales of SOC erosion, SOC burial, and associated soil-atmosphere C fluxes. The Holcombe's Branch watershed, part of the Calhoun Critical Zone Observatory in South Carolina, USA, is the case study used. The site has experienced some of the most serious agricultural soil erosion in North America. We use SOC content measurements from contrasting soil profiles and estimates of SOC oxidation rates at multiple soil depths. The methodology was implemented in the tRIBS-ECO (Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator-Erosion and Carbon Oxidation), a spatially and depth-explicit model of SOC dynamics built within an existing coupled physically based hydro-geomorphic model. According to observations from multiple soil profiles, about 32% of the original SOC content has been eroded in the study area. The results indicate that C erosion and its replacement exhibit significant topographic variation at relatively small scales (tens of meters). The episodic representation of SOC erosion reproduces the history of SOC erosion better than models that use an assumption of constant erosion in space and time. The net atmospheric C exchange at the study site is estimated to range from a maximum source of 14.5 g m−2 yr−1 to a maximum sink of −18.2 g m−2 yr−1. The small-scale complexity of C erosion and burial driven by topography exerts a strong control on the landscape's capacity to serve as a C source or a sink.