Browsing by Subject "Models, Economic"

Now showing 1 - 10 of 10
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    Burning a hole in the budget: tobacco spending and its crowd-out of other goods.
    (Appl Health Econ Health Policy, 2004) Busch, Susan H; Jofre-Bonet, Mireia; Falba, Tracy A; Sindelar, Jody L
    Smoking is an expensive habit. Smoking households spend, on average, more than $US1000 annually on cigarettes. When a family member quits, in addition to the former smoker's improved long-term health, families benefit because savings from reduced cigarette expenditures can be allocated to other goods. For households in which some members continue to smoke, smoking expenditures crowd-out other purchases, which may affect other household members, as well as the smoker. We empirically analyse how expenditures on tobacco crowd-out consumption of other goods, estimating the patterns of substitution and complementarity between tobacco products and other categories of household expenditure. We use the Consumer Expenditure Survey data for the years 1995-2001, which we complement with regional price data and state cigarette prices. We estimate a consumer demand system that includes several main expenditure categories (cigarettes, food, alcohol, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care) and controls for socioeconomic variables and other sources of observable heterogeneity. Descriptive data indicate that, comparing smokers to nonsmokers, smokers spend less on housing. Results from the demand system indicate that as the price of cigarettes rises, households increase the quantity of food purchased, and, in some samples, reduce the quantity of apparel and housing purchased.
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    Does Medicaid pay more to a program of all-inclusive care for the elderly (PACE) than for fee-for-service long-term care?
    (J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci, 2013-01) Wieland, Darryl; Kinosian, Bruce; Stallard, Eric; Boland, Rebecca
    BACKGROUND: In rebalancing from nursing homes (NHs), states are increasing access of NH-certified dually eligible (Medicare/Medicaid) patients to community waiver programs and Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Prior evaluations suggest Medicaid's PACE capitation exceeds its spending for comparable admissions in alternative care, although the latter may be underestimated. We test whether Medicaid payments to PACE are lower than predicted fee-for-service outlays in a long-term care admission cohort. METHODS: Using grade-of-membership methods, we model health deficits for dual eligibles aged 55 or more entering waiver, PACE, and NH in South Carolina (n = 3,988). Clinical types, membership vectors, and program type prevalences are estimated. We calculate a blend, fitting PACE between fee-for-service cohorts, whose postadmission 1-year utilization was converted to attrition-adjusted outlays. PACE's capitation is compared with blend-based expenditure predictions. RESULTS: Four clinical types describe population health deficits/service needs. The waiver cohort is most represented in the least impaired type (1: 47.1%), NH entrants in the most disabled (4: 38.5%). Most prevalent in PACE was a dementia type, 3 (32.7%). PACE's blend was waiver: 0.5602 (95% CI: 0.5472, 0.5732) and NH: 0.4398 (0.4268, 0.4528). Average Medicaid attrition-adjusted 1-year payments for waiver and NH were $4,177 and $77,945. The mean predicted cost for PACE patients in alternative long-term care was $36,620 ($35,662 and $37,580). PACE's Medicaid capitation was $27,648-28% below the lower limit of predicted fee-for-service payments. CONCLUSIONS: PACE's capitation was well under outlays for equivalent patients in alternative care-a substantial savings for Medicaid. Our methods provide a rate-setting element for PACE and other managed long-term care.
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    Economic evaluation of access to musculoskeletal care: the case of waiting for total knee arthroplasty.
    (BMC Musculoskelet Disord, 2014-01-18) Mather, Richard C; Hug, Kevin T; Orlando, Lori A; Watters, Tyler Steven; Koenig, Lane; Nunley, Ryan M; Bolognesi, Michael P
    BACKGROUND: The projected demand for total knee arthroplasty is staggering. At its root, the solution involves increasing supply or decreasing demand. Other developed nations have used rationing and wait times to distribute this service. However, economic impact and cost-effectiveness of waiting for TKA is unknown. METHODS: A Markov decision model was constructed for a cost-utility analysis of three treatment strategies for end-stage knee osteoarthritis: 1) TKA without delay, 2) a waiting period with no non-operative treatment and 3) a non-operative treatment bridge during that waiting period in a cohort of 60 year-old patients. Outcome probabilities and effectiveness were derived from the literature. Costs were estimated from the societal perspective with national average Medicare reimbursement. Effectiveness was expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Principal outcome measures were average incremental costs, effectiveness, and quality-adjusted life years; and net health benefits. RESULTS: In the base case, a 2-year wait-time both with and without a non-operative treatment bridge resulted in a lower number of average QALYs gained (11.57 (no bridge) and 11.95 (bridge) vs. 12.14 (no delay). The average cost was $1,660 higher for TKA without delay than wait-time with no bridge, but $1,810 less than wait-time with non-operative bridge. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing wait-time with no bridge to TKA without delay was $2,901/QALY. When comparing TKA without delay to waiting with non-operative bridge, TKA without delay produced greater utility at a lower cost to society. CONCLUSIONS: TKA without delay is the preferred cost-effective treatment strategy when compared to a waiting for TKA without non-operative bridge. TKA without delay is cost saving when a non-operative bridge is used during the waiting period. As it is unlikely that patients waiting for TKA would not receive non-operative treatment, TKA without delay may be an overall cost-saving health care delivery strategy. Policies aimed at increasing the supply of TKA should be considered as savings exist that could indirectly fund those strategies.
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    Estimation and validation of a multiattribute model of Alzheimer disease progression.
    (Med Decis Making, 2010-11) Stallard, Eric; Kinosian, Bruce; Zbrozek, Arthur S; Yashin, Anatoliy I; Glick, Henry A; Stern, Yaakov
    OBJECTIVES: To estimate and validate a multiattribute model of the clinical course of Alzheimer disease (AD) from mild AD to death in a high-quality prospective cohort study, and to estimate the impact of hypothetical modifications to AD progression rates on costs associated with Medicare and Medicaid services. DATA AND METHODS: The authors estimated sex-specific longitudinal Grade of Membership (GoM) models for AD patients (103 men, 149 women) in the initial cohort of the Predictors Study (1989-2001) based on 80 individual measures obtained every 6 mo for 10 y. These models were replicated for AD patients (106 men, 148 women) in the 2nd Predictors Study cohort (1997-2007). Model validation required that the disease-specific transition parameters be identical for both Predictors Study cohorts. Medicare costs were estimated from the National Long Term Care Survey. RESULTS: Sex-specific models were validated using the 2nd Predictors Study cohort with the GoM transition parameters constrained to the values estimated for the 1st Predictors Study cohort; 57 to 61 of the 80 individual measures contributed significantly to the GoM models. Simulated, cost-free interventions in the rate of progression of AD indicated that large potential cost offsets could occur for patients at the earliest stages of AD. CONCLUSIONS: AD progression is characterized by a small number of parameters governing changes in large numbers of correlated indicators of AD severity. The analysis confirmed that the progression of AD represents a complex multidimensional physiological process that is similar across different study cohorts. The estimates suggested that there could be large cost offsets to Medicare and Medicaid from the slowing of AD progression among patients with mild AD. The methodology appears generally applicable in AD modeling.
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    Medical cost trajectories and onsets of cancer and noncancer diseases in US elderly population.
    (Comput Math Methods Med, 2011) Akushevich, Igor; Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Lucy; Ukraintseva, Svetlana; Arbeev, Konstantin; Yashin, Anatoliy I
    Time trajectories of medical costs-associated with onset of twelve aging-related cancer and chronic noncancer diseases were analyzed using the National Long-Term Care Survey data linked to Medicare Service Use files. A special procedure for selecting individuals with onset of each disease was developed and used for identification of the date at disease onset. Medical cost trajectories were found to be represented by a parametric model with four easily interpretable parameters reflecting: (i) prediagnosis cost (associated with initial comorbidity), (ii) cost of the disease onset, (iii) population recovery representing reduction of the medical expenses associated with a disease since diagnosis was made, and (iv) acquired comorbidity representing the difference between post- and pre diagnosis medical cost levels. These parameters were evaluated for the entire US population as well as for the subpopulation conditional on age, disability and comorbidity states, and survival (2.5 years after the date of onset). The developed approach results in a family of new forecasting models with covariates.
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    Micro-level explanations for emergent patterns of self-governance arrangements in small-scale fisheries-A modeling approach.
    (PloS one, 2017-01) Lindkvist, Emilie; Basurto, Xavier; Schlüter, Maja
    Small-scale fisheries (SSFs) in developing countries are expected to play a significant role in poverty alleviation and enhancing food security in the decades to come. To realize this expectation, a better understanding of their informal self-governance arrangements is critical for developing policies that can improve fishers' livelihoods and lead to sustainable ecosystem stewardship. The goal of this paper is to develop a more nuanced understanding of micro-level factors-such as fishers' characteristics and behavior-to explain observed differences in self-governance arrangements in Northwest Mexico. We focus on two ubiquitous forms of self-governance: hierarchical non-cooperative arrangements between fishers and fishbuyers, such as patron-client relationships (PCs), versus more cooperative arrangements amongst fishers, such as fishing cooperatives (co-ops). We developed an agent-based model of an archetypical SSF that captures key hypotheses from in-depth fieldwork in Northwest Mexico of fishers' day-to-day fishing and trading. Results from our model indicate that high diversity in fishers' reliability, and low initial trust between co-op members, makes co-ops' establishment difficult. PCs cope better with this kind of diversity because, in contrast to co-ops, they have more flexibility in choosing whom to work with. However, once co-ops establish, they cope better with seasonal variability in fish abundance and provide long-term security for the fishers. We argue that existing levels of trust and diversity among fishers matter for different self-governance arrangements to establish and persist, and should therefore be taken into account when developing better, targeted policies for improved SSFs governance.
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    Physical and economic potential of geological CO2 storage in saline aquifers.
    (Environ Sci Technol, 2009-03-15) Eccles, Jordan K; Pratson, Lincoln; Newell, Richard G; Jackson, Robert B
    Carbon sequestration in sandstone saline reservoirs holds great potential for mitigating climate change, but its storage potential and cost per ton of avoided CO2 emissions are uncertain. We develop a general model to determine the maximum theoretical constraints on both storage potential and injection rate and use it to characterize the economic viability of geosequestration in sandstone saline aquifers. When applied to a representative set of aquifer characteristics, the model yields results that compare favorably with pilot projects currently underway. Over a range of reservoir properties, maximum effective storage peaks at an optimal depth of 1600 m, at which point 0.18-0.31 metric tons can be stored per cubic meter of bulk volume of reservoir. Maximum modeled injection rates predict minima for storage costs in a typical basin in the range of $2-7/ ton CO2 (2005 U.S.$) depending on depth and basin characteristics in our base-case scenario. Because the properties of natural reservoirs in the United States vary substantially, storage costs could in some cases be lower or higher by orders of magnitude. We conclude that available geosequestration capacity exhibits a wide range of technological and economic attractiveness. Like traditional projects in the extractive industries, geosequestration capacity should be exploited starting with the low-cost storage options first then moving gradually up the supply curve.
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    Physical and economic potential of geological CO2 storage in saline aquifers.
    (Environ Sci Technol, 2009-03-15) Eccles, JK; Jackson, Robert; Newell, Richard G; Pratson, L
    Carbon sequestration in sandstone saline reservoirs holds great potential for mitigating climate change, but its storage potential and cost per ton of avoided CO2 emissions are uncertain. We develop a general model to determine the maximum theoretical constraints on both storage potential and injection rate and use it to characterize the economic viability of geosequestration in sandstone saline aquifers. When applied to a representative set of aquifer characteristics, the model yields results that compare favorably with pilot projects currently underway. Over a range of reservoir properties, maximum effective storage peaks at an optimal depth of 1600 m, at which point 0.18-0.31 metric tons can be stored per cubic meter of bulk volume of reservoir. Maximum modeled injection rates predict minima for storage costs in a typical basin in the range of $2-7/ ton CO2 (2005 U.S.$) depending on depth and basin characteristics in our base-case scenario. Because the properties of natural reservoirs in the United States vary substantially, storage costs could in some cases be lower or higher by orders of magnitude. We conclude that available geosequestration capacity exhibits a wide range of technological and economic attractiveness. Like traditional projects in the extractive industries, geosequestration capacity should be exploited starting with the low-cost storage options first then moving gradually up the supply curve.
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    Strategies for antiviral stockpiling for future influenza pandemics: a global epidemic-economic perspective.
    (Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2011-09) Carrasco, Luis R; Lee, Vernon J; Chen, Mark I; Matchar, David B; Thompson, James P; Cook, Alex R
    Influenza pandemics present a global threat owing to their potential mortality and substantial economic impacts. Stockpiling antiviral drugs to manage a pandemic is an effective strategy to offset their negative impacts; however, little is known about the long-term optimal size of the stockpile under uncertainty and the characteristics of different countries. Using an epidemic-economic model we studied the effect on total mortality and costs of antiviral stockpile sizes for Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK, the USA and Zimbabwe. In the model, antivirals stockpiling considerably reduced mortality. There was greater potential avoidance of expected costs in the higher resourced countries (e.g. from $55 billion to $27 billion over a 30 year time horizon for the USA) and large avoidance of fatalities in those less resourced (e.g. from 11.4 to 2.3 million in Indonesia). Under perfect allocation, higher resourced countries should aim to store antiviral stockpiles able to cover at least 15 per cent of their population, rising to 25 per cent with 30 per cent misallocation, to minimize fatalities and economic costs. Stockpiling is estimated not to be cost-effective for two-thirds of the world's population under current antivirals pricing. Lower prices and international cooperation are necessary to make the life-saving potential of antivirals cost-effective in resource-limited countries.