Browsing by Subject "Mortality"
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Item Open Access A longitudinal study of convergence between Black and White COVID-19 mortality: A county fixed effects approach.(Lancet regional health. Americas, 2021-09) Lawton, Ralph; Zheng, Kevin; Zheng, Daniel; Huang, ErichBackground
Non-Hispanic Black populations have suffered much greater per capita COVID-19 mortality than White populations. Previous work has shown that rates of Black and White mortality have converged over time. Understanding of COVID-19 disparities over time is complicated by geographic changes in prevalence, and some prior research has claimed that regional shifts in COVID-19 prevalence may explain the convergence.Methods
Using county-level COVID-19 mortality data stratified by race, we investigate the trajectory of Black and White per capita mortality from June 2020-January 2021. We use a county fixed-effects model to estimate changes within counties, then extend our models to leverage county-level variation in prevalence to study the effects of prevalence versus time trajectories in mortality disparities.Findings
Over this period, cumulative mortality rose by 61% and 90% for Black and White populations respectively, decreasing the mortality ratio by 0.4 (25.8%). These trends persisted when a county-level fixed-effects model was applied. Results revealed that county-level changes in prevalence nearly fully explain changes in mortality disparities over time.Interpretation
Results suggest mechanisms underpinning convergence in Black/White mortality are not driven by fixed county-level characteristics or changes in the regional dispersion of COVID-19, but instead by changes within counties. Further, declines in the Black/White mortality ratio over time appear primarily linked to county-level changes in COVID-19 prevalence rather than other county-level factors that may vary with time. Research into COVID-19 disparities should focus on mechanisms that operate within-counties and are consistent with a prevalence-disparity relationship.Funding
This work was supported by the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences [E.H.: UL1TR002553].Item Open Access Adherence to diabetes guidelines for screening, physical activity and medication and onset of complications and death.(J Diabetes Complications, 2015-11) Chen, Yiqun; Sloan, Frank A; Yashkin, Arseniy PAIMS: Analyze relationships between adherence to guidelines for diabetes care - regular screening; physical activity; and medication - and diabetes complications and mortality. METHODS: Outcomes were onset of congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, renal failure, moderate complications of lower extremities, lower-limb amputation, proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), and mortality during follow-up. Participants were persons aged 65+ in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) 2003 Diabetes Study and had Medicare claims in follow-up period (2004-8). RESULTS: Adherence to screening recommendations decreased risks of developing CHF (odds ratio (OR)=0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.96), stroke (OR=0.80; 95% CI: 0.68-0.94); renal failure (OR=0. 82; 95% CI: 0.71-0.95); and death (OR=0.86; 95% CI: 0.74-0.99). Adherence to physical activity recommendation reduced risks of stroke (OR=0.64; 95% CI: 0.45-0.90), renal failure (OR=0.71; 95% CI: 0.52-0.97), moderate lower-extremity complications (OR=0.71; 95% CI: 0.51-0.99), having a lower limb amputation (OR=0.31, 95% CI: 0.11-0.85), and death (OR=0.56, 95% CI: 0.41-0.77). Medication adherence was associated with lower risks of PDR (OR=0.35, 95% CI: 0.13-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to screening, physical activity and medication guidelines was associated with lower risks of diabetes complications and death. Relative importance of adherence differed among outcome measures.Item Open Access Associations between superoxide dismutase, malondialdehyde and all-cause mortality in older adults: a community-based cohort study.(BMC geriatrics, 2019-04-15) Mao, Chen; Yuan, Jin-Qiu; Lv, Yue-Bin; Gao, Xiang; Yin, Zhao-Xue; Kraus, Virginia Byers; Luo, Jie-Si; Chei, Choy-Lye; Matchar, David Bruce; Zeng, Yi; Shi, Xiao-MingBackground
Oxidative stress is an important theory of aging but population-based evidence has been lacking. This study aimed to evaluate the associations between biomarkers of oxidative stress, including plasma superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity and malondialdehyde (MDA), with all-cause mortality in older adults.Methods
This is a community-based cohort study of 2224 participants (women:1227, median age: 86 years). We included individuals aged 65 or above and with plasma SOD activity and/or MDA tests at baseline. We evaluated the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by multivariable Cox models.Results
We documented 858 deaths during six years of follow-up. There was a significant interaction effect of sex with the association between SOD activity and mortality (P < 0.001). Compared with the lowest quintile, the risk of all-cause mortality was inversely associated with increasing quintiles of plasma SOD activity in women(P-trend< 0.001), with adjusted HRs for the second through fifth quintiles of 0.73 (95% CI 0.53-1.02), 0.52(95% CI 0.38-0.72), 0.53(95% CI 0.39-0.73), and 0.48(95% CI 0.35-0.66). There were no significant associations between SOD activity and mortality in men (P-trend = 0.64), and between MDA and mortality in all participants (P-trend = 0.79).Conclusions
Increased activity of SOD was independently associated with lower all-cause mortality in older women but not in men. This epidemiological study lent support for the free radical/oxidative stress theory of aging.Item Open Access China's response to the rising stroke burden.(BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2019-02-28) Li, Zixiao; Jiang, Yong; Li, Hao; Xian, Ying; Wang, YongjunItem Open Access COVID-19 mortality risk for older men and women.(BMC public health, 2020-11) Yanez, N David; Weiss, Noel S; Romand, Jacques-André; Treggiari, Miriam MBackground
Case-fatality from COVID-19 has been reported to be relatively high in patients age 65 years or older. We sought to determine the age-specific rates of COVID-19 mortality at the population level.Methods
We obtained information regarding the total number of COVID-19 reported deaths for six consecutive weeks beginning at the 50th recorded death, among 16 countries that reported a relatively high number of COVID-19 cases as of April 12, 2020. We performed an ecological study to model COVID-19 mortality rates per week by age group (54 years or younger, 55-64 years, and 65 years or older) and sex using a Poisson mixed effects regression model.Results
Over the six-week period of data, there were 178,568 COVID-19 deaths from a total population of approximately 2.4 billion people. Age and sex were associated with COVID-19 mortality. Compared with individuals ages 54 years or younger, the incident rate ratio (IRR) was 8.1, indicating that the mortality rate of COVID-19 was 8.1 times higher (95%CI = 7.7, 8.5) among those 55 to 64 years, and more than 62 times higher (IRR = 62.1; 95%CI = 59.7, 64.7) among those ages 65 or older. Mortality rates from COVID-19 were 77% higher in men than in women (IRR = 1.77, 95%CI = 1.74, 1.79).Conclusions
In the 16 countries examined, persons age 65 years or older had strikingly higher COVID-19 mortality rates compared to younger individuals, and men had a higher risk of COVID-19 death than women.Item Open Access Cross-national comparison of sex differences in health and mortality in Denmark, Japan and the US.(Eur J Epidemiol, 2010-07) Oksuzyan, Anna; Crimmins, Eileen; Saito, Yasuhiko; O'Rand, Angela; Vaupel, James W; Christensen, KaareThe present study aims to compare the direction and magnitude of sex differences in mortality and major health dimensions across Denmark, Japan and the US. The Human Mortality Database was used to examine sex differences in age-specific mortality rates. The Danish twin surveys, the Danish 1905-Cohort Study, the Health and Retirement Study, and the Nihon University Japanese Longitudinal Study of Aging were used to examine sex differences in health. Men had consistently higher mortality rates at all ages in all three countries, but they also had a substantial advantage in handgrip strength compared with the same-aged women. Sex differences in activities of daily living (ADL) became pronounced among individuals aged 85+ in all three countries. Depression levels tended to be higher in women, particularly, in Denmark and the HRS, and only small sex differences were observed in the immediate recall test and Mini-Mental State Exam. The present study revealed consistent sex differentials in survival and physical health, self-rated health and cognition at older ages, whereas the pattern of sex differences in depressive symptoms was country-specific.Item Open Access DNA methylation age is associated with mortality in a longitudinal Danish twin study.(Aging Cell, 2016-02) Christiansen, Lene; Lenart, Adam; Tan, Qihua; Vaupel, James W; Aviv, Abraham; McGue, Matt; Christensen, KaareAn epigenetic profile defining the DNA methylation age (DNAm age) of an individual has been suggested to be a biomarker of aging, and thus possibly providing a tool for assessment of health and mortality. In this study, we estimated the DNAm age of 378 Danish twins, age 30-82 years, and furthermore included a 10-year longitudinal study of the 86 oldest-old twins (mean age of 86.1 at follow-up), which subsequently were followed for mortality for 8 years. We found that the DNAm age is highly correlated with chronological age across all age groups (r = 0.97), but that the rate of change of DNAm age decreases with age. The results may in part be explained by selective mortality of those with a high DNAm age. This hypothesis was supported by a classical survival analysis showing a 35% (4-77%) increased mortality risk for each 5-year increase in the DNAm age vs. chronological age. Furthermore, the intrapair twin analysis revealed a more-than-double mortality risk for the DNAm oldest twin compared to the co-twin and a 'dose-response pattern' with the odds of dying first increasing 3.2 (1.05-10.1) times per 5-year DNAm age difference within twin pairs, thus showing a stronger association of DNAm age with mortality in the oldest-old when controlling for familial factors. In conclusion, our results support that DNAm age qualifies as a biomarker of aging.Item Open Access Dynamics of biomarkers in relation to aging and mortality.(Mech Ageing Dev, 2016-06) Arbeev, Konstantin G; Ukraintseva, Svetlana V; Yashin, Anatoliy IContemporary longitudinal studies collect repeated measurements of biomarkers allowing one to analyze their dynamics in relation to mortality, morbidity, or other health-related outcomes. Rich and diverse data collected in such studies provide opportunities to investigate how various socio-economic, demographic, behavioral and other variables can interact with biological and genetic factors to produce differential rates of aging in individuals. In this paper, we review some recent publications investigating dynamics of biomarkers in relation to mortality, which use single biomarkers as well as cumulative measures combining information from multiple biomarkers. We also discuss the analytical approach, the stochastic process models, which conceptualizes several aging-related mechanisms in the structure of the model and allows evaluating "hidden" characteristics of aging-related changes indirectly from available longitudinal data on biomarkers and follow-up on mortality or onset of diseases taking into account other relevant factors (both genetic and non-genetic). We also discuss an extension of the approach, which considers ranges of "optimal values" of biomarkers rather than a single optimal value as in the original model. We discuss practical applications of the approach to single biomarkers and cumulative measures highlighting that the potential of applications to cumulative measures is still largely underused.Item Open Access Educational differences in the compression of disability incidence in the United States.(SSM - population health, 2019-04) Chiu, Chi-Tsun; Hayward, Mark D; Chan, Angelique; Matchar, David BObjective
To examine educational differences in the compression of disability incidence in the United States.Method
We use the Health and Retirement Study and techniques of microsimulation and bootstrap to estimate the distribution of mortality and disability incidence for major education groups.Results
Higher education is associated with a right shift in the age distributions of both mortality and disability incidence, and more compressed distributions above the modal ages (p<0.05). Our study also points to gender differences in the association between education and compression of mortality and disability incidence (p<0.05).Discussion
To our knowledge, no prior studies have examined educational difference in compression of disability incidence and conducted formal tests for statistical significance. Educational differences in life span variation in mortality correspond closely with life span variation in disability incidence. One long-range implication of this work is growing inequality in life-span variation in disability incidence given trends in educational differences in life-span variation in mortality.Item Open Access Effect of 6% hydroxyethyl starch 130/0.4 in 0.9% sodium chloride (Voluven®) on complications after subarachnoid hemorrhage: a retrospective analysis.(Springerplus, 2013-12) Khan, Shariq A; Adogwa, Owoicho; Gan, Tong J; Null, Ulysses T; Verla, Terence; Gokhale, Sankalp; White, William D; Britz, Gavin W; Zomorodi, Ali R; James, Michael L; McDonagh, David LBACKGROUND: 6% Hydroxyethyl Starch 130/0.4 in 0.9% Sodium Chloride (Voluven®; 6% HES 130/0.4) is a colloid often used for fluid resuscitation in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), despite a lack of safety data for this use. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the effect of 6% HES 130/0.4 on major complications associated with SAH. METHODS: Medical records of all patients presenting between May 2010 and September 2012 with aneurysmal SAH were analyzed. Patients were divided in two groups based on the administration of 6% HES 130/0.4; HES group (n=57) and Non-HES group (n=72). The primary outcome included a composite of three major complications associated with SAH: Delayed Cerebral Ischemia (DCI), Hydrocephalus (HCP) requiring cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) shunting, and Rebleeding. RESULTS: The study groups were similar with respect to most characteristics except the incidences of hypertension, ischemic heart disease, Fisher grade and lowest hemoglobin during stay. The odds of developing the primary composite outcome was higher in the HES group [OR= 3.1(1.30-7.36), p=0.01]. The patients in the HES group had a significantly longer median duration of hospital (19 vs 14 days) and Neurointensive Care Unit stay (14 vs 10 days) compared to the Non HES group. CONCLUSION: We observed increased complications after SAH with 6% HES 130/0.4 (Voluven®) administration. An adequately powered prospective randomized controlled trial into the safety of 6% HES 130/0.4 in this patient population is warranted.Item Open Access Effect of home testing of international normalized ratio on clinical events.(The New England journal of medicine, 2010-10) Matchar, David B; Jacobson, Alan; Dolor, Rowena; Edson, Robert; Uyeda, Lauren; Phibbs, Ciaran S; Vertrees, Julia E; Shih, Mei-Chiung; Holodniy, Mark; Lavori, Philip; THINRS Executive Committee and Site InvestigatorsBackground
Warfarin anticoagulation reduces thromboembolic complications in patients with atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valves, but effective management is complex, and the international normalized ratio (INR) is often outside the target range. As compared with venous plasma testing, point-of-care INR measuring devices allow greater testing frequency and patient involvement and may improve clinical outcomes.Methods
We randomly assigned 2922 patients who were taking warfarin because of mechanical heart valves or atrial fibrillation and who were competent in the use of point-of-care INR devices to either weekly self-testing at home or monthly high-quality testing in a clinic. The primary end point was the time to a first major event (stroke, major bleeding episode, or death).Results
The patients were followed for 2.0 to 4.75 years, for a total of 8730 patient-years of follow-up. The time to the first primary event was not significantly longer in the self-testing group than in the clinic-testing group (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.04; P=0.14). The two groups had similar rates of clinical outcomes except that the self-testing group reported more minor bleeding episodes. Over the entire follow-up period, the self-testing group had a small but significant improvement in the percentage of time during which the INR was within the target range (absolute difference between groups, 3.8 percentage points; P<0.001). At 2 years of follow-up, the self-testing group also had a small but significant improvement in patient satisfaction with anticoagulation therapy (P=0.002) and quality of life (P<0.001).Conclusions
As compared with monthly high-quality clinic testing, weekly self-testing did not delay the time to a first stroke, major bleeding episode, or death to the extent suggested by prior studies. These results do not support the superiority of self-testing over clinic testing in reducing the risk of stroke, major bleeding episode, and death among patients taking warfarin therapy. (Funded by the Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00032591.).Item Open Access Effects of Linagliptin on Cardiovascular and Kidney Outcomes in People With Normal and Reduced Kidney Function: Secondary Analysis of the CARMELINA Randomized Trial.(Diabetes care, 2020-08) Perkovic, Vlado; Toto, Robert; Cooper, Mark E; Mann, Johannes FE; Rosenstock, Julio; McGuire, Darren K; Kahn, Steven E; Marx, Nikolaus; Alexander, John H; Zinman, Bernard; Pfarr, Egon; Schnaidt, Sven; Meinicke, Thomas; von Eynatten, Maximillian; George, Jyothis T; Johansen, Odd Erik; Wanner, Christoph; CARMELINA investigatorsObjective
Type 2 diabetes is a leading cause of kidney failure, but few outcome trials proactively enrolled individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We performed secondary analyses of cardiovascular (CV) and kidney outcomes across baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) categories (≥60, 45 to <60, 30 to <45, and <30 mL/min/1.73 m2) in Cardiovascular and Renal Microvascular Outcome Study With Linagliptin (CARMELINA), a cardiorenal placebo-controlled outcome trial of the dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor linagliptin (NCT01897532).Research design and methods
Participants with CV disease and/or CKD were included. The primary outcome was time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke (three-point major adverse CV event [3P-MACE]), with a secondary outcome of renal death, end-stage kidney disease, or sustained ≥40% decrease in eGFR from baseline. Other end points included progression of albuminuria, change in HbA1c, and adverse events (AEs) including hypoglycemia.Results
A total of 6,979 subjects (mean age 65.9 years; eGFR 54.6 mL/min/1.73 m2; 80.1% albuminuria) were followed for 2.2 years. Across eGFR categories, linagliptin as compared with placebo did not affect the risk for 3P-MACE (hazard ratio 1.02 [95% CI 0.89, 1.17]) or the secondary kidney outcome (1.04 [0.89, 1.22]) (interaction P values >0.05). Regardless of eGFR, albuminuria progression was reduced with linagliptin, as was HbA1c, without increasing risk for hypoglycemia. AEs were balanced among groups overall and across eGFR categories.Conclusions
Across all GFR categories, in participants with type 2 diabetes and CKD and/or CV disease, there was no difference in risk for linagliptin versus placebo on CV and kidney events. Significant reductions in risk for albuminuria progression and HbA1c and no difference in AEs were observed.Item Open Access Evolution. Getting to the root of aging.(Science, 2012-11-02) Baudisch, Annette; Vaupel, James WItem Open Access Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.(Lancet (London, England), 2018-11) GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE CollaboratorsBACKGROUND:How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. METHODS:We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. FINDINGS:Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). INTERPRETATION:With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Item Open Access Heart disease and stroke statistics--2012 update: a report from the American Heart Association.(Circulation, 2012-01) Roger, Véronique L; Go, Alan S; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Benjamin, Emelia J; Berry, Jarett D; Borden, William B; Bravata, Dawn M; Dai, Shifan; Ford, Earl S; Fox, Caroline S; Fullerton, Heather J; Gillespie, Cathleen; Hailpern, Susan M; Heit, John A; Howard, Virginia J; Kissela, Brett M; Kittner, Steven J; Lackland, Daniel T; Lichtman, Judith H; Lisabeth, Lynda D; Makuc, Diane M; Marcus, Gregory M; Marelli, Ariane; Matchar, David B; Moy, Claudia S; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Mussolino, Michael E; Nichol, Graham; Paynter, Nina P; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Sorlie, Paul D; Sotoodehnia, Nona; Turan, Tanya N; Virani, Salim S; Wong, Nathan D; Woo, Daniel; Turner, Melanie B; American Heart Association Statistics Committee and Stroke Statistics SubcommitteeEach year, the American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, and other government agencies, brings together the most up-to-date statistics on heart disease, stroke, other vascular diseases, and their risk factors and presents them in its Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update. The Statistical Update is a valuable resource for researchers, clinicians, healthcare policy makers, media professionals, the lay public, and many others who seek the best national data available on disease morbidity and mortality and the risks, quality of care, medical procedures and operations, and costs associated with the management of these diseases in a single document. Indeed, since 1999, the Statistical Update has been cited more than 8700 times in the literature (including citations of all annual versions). In 2010 alone, the various Statistical Updates were cited 1600 times (data from ISI Web of Science). In recent years, the Statistical Update has undergone some major changes with the addition of new chapters and major updates across multiple areas. For this year's edition, the Statistics Committee, which produces the document for the AHA, updated all of the current chapters with the most recent nationally representative data and inclusion of relevant articles from the literature over the past year and added a new chapter detailing various disorders of heart rhythm. Also, the 2012 Statistical Update is a major source for monitoring both cardiovascular health and disease in the population, with a focus on progress toward achievement of the AHA's 2020 Impact Goals. Below are a few highlights from this year's Update. © 2011 American Heart Association, Inc.Item Open Access How Costly Are Smokers to Other People? Longitudinal Evidence on the Near Elderly(2001) Picone, Gabriel A; Sloan, Frank AMany studies have estimated the cost of smoking. In recent years, such estimates have been widely used in litigation against the tobacco companies. Both longitudinal and cross-sectional methods have been used. On balance, the longitudinal approach, the one used in this study, is much preferable since one can account for the effects of smoking on the pool of eligibles rather than just conditioning expenditures on being eligible. We used data from four waves of the Health and Retirement Study to assess the impact of smoking on use of hospital and physicians’ services and nursing home care. The analysis was limited to utilization among persons aged 51 to 67 (“near elderly” ). During this phase of the life cycle, many adverse effects of smoking, measured in terms of mortality and morbidity,Item Open Access How the effects of aging and stresses of life are integrated in mortality rates: insights for genetic studies of human health and longevity.(Biogerontology, 2016-02) Yashin, Anatoliy I; Arbeev, Konstantin G; Arbeeva, Liubov S; Wu, Deqing; Akushevich, Igor; Kovtun, Mikhail; Yashkin, Arseniy; Kulminski, Alexander; Culminskaya, Irina; Stallard, Eric; Li, Miaozhu; Ukraintseva, Svetlana VIncreasing proportions of elderly individuals in developed countries combined with substantial increases in related medical expenditures make the improvement of the health of the elderly a high priority today. If the process of aging by individuals is a major cause of age related health declines then postponing aging could be an efficient strategy for improving the health of the elderly. Implementing this strategy requires a better understanding of genetic and non-genetic connections among aging, health, and longevity. We review progress and problems in research areas whose development may contribute to analyses of such connections. These include genetic studies of human aging and longevity, the heterogeneity of populations with respect to their susceptibility to disease and death, forces that shape age patterns of human mortality, secular trends in mortality decline, and integrative mortality modeling using longitudinal data. The dynamic involvement of genetic factors in (i) morbidity/mortality risks, (ii) responses to stresses of life, (iii) multi-morbidities of many elderly individuals, (iv) trade-offs for diseases, (v) genetic heterogeneity, and (vi) other relevant aging-related health declines, underscores the need for a comprehensive, integrated approach to analyze the genetic connections for all of the above aspects of aging-related changes. The dynamic relationships among aging, health, and longevity traits would be better understood if one linked several research fields within one conceptual framework that allowed for efficient analyses of available longitudinal data using the wealth of available knowledge about aging, health, and longevity already accumulated in the research field.Item Open Access Human mortality improvement in evolutionary context.(Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2012-10-30) Burger, Oskar; Baudisch, Annette; Vaupel, James WLife expectancy is increasing in most countries and has exceeded 80 in several, as low-mortality nations continue to make progress in averting deaths. The health and economic implications of mortality reduction have been given substantial attention, but the observed malleability of human mortality has not been placed in a broad evolutionary context. We quantify the rate and amount of mortality reduction by comparing a variety of human populations to the evolved human mortality profile, here estimated as the average mortality pattern for ethnographically observed hunter-gatherers. We show that human mortality has decreased so substantially that the difference between hunter-gatherers and today's lowest mortality populations is greater than the difference between hunter-gatherers and wild chimpanzees. The bulk of this mortality reduction has occurred since 1900 and has been experienced by only about 4 of the roughly 8,000 human generations that have ever lived. Moreover, mortality improvement in humans is on par with or greater than the reductions in mortality in other species achieved by laboratory selection experiments and endocrine pathway mutations. This observed plasticity in age-specific risk of death is at odds with conventional theories of aging.Item Open Access Incidence of Acute Myocardial Infarction in Northern Tanzania: A Modeling Approach Within a Prospective Observational Study.(Journal of the American Heart Association, 2021-08) Hertz, Julian T; Madut, Deng B; Rubach, Matthew P; William, Gwamaka; Crump, John A; Galson, Sophie W; Maro, Venance P; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Limkakeng, Alexander T; Temu, Gloria; Thielman, Nathan M; Sakita, Francis MBackground Rigorous incidence data for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in sub-Saharan Africa are lacking. Consequently, modeling studies based on limited data have suggested that the burden of AMI and AMI-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa is lower than in other world regions. Methods and Results We estimated the incidence of AMI in northern Tanzania in 2019 by integrating data from a prospective surveillance study (681 participants) and a community survey of healthcare-seeking behavior (718 participants). In the surveillance study, adults presenting to an emergency department with chest pain or shortness of breath were screened for AMI with ECG and troponin testing. AMI was defined by the Fourth Universal Definition of AMI criteria. Mortality was assessed 30 days following enrollment via in-person or telephone interviews. In the cluster-based community survey, adults in northern Tanzania were asked where they would present for chest pain or shortness of breath. Multipliers were applied to account for AMI cases that would have been missed by our surveillance methods. The estimated annual incidence of AMI was 172 (207 among men and 139 among women) cases per 100 000 people. The age-standardized annual incidence was 211 (263 among men and 170 among women) per 100 000 people. The estimated annual incidence of AMI-associated mortality was 87 deaths per 100 000 people, and the age-standardized annual incidence was 102 deaths per 100 000 people. Conclusions The incidence of AMI and AMI-associated mortality in northern Tanzania is much higher than previously estimated and similar to that observed in high-income countries.Item Open Access Longitudinal associations between BMI change and the risks of colorectal cancer incidence, cancer-relate and all-cause mortality among 81,388 older adults : BMI change and the risks of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality.(BMC cancer, 2019-11-11) Li, Ji-Bin; Luo, Sheng; Wong, Martin CS; Li, Cai; Feng, Li-Fen; Peng, Jian-Hong; Li, Jing-Hua; Zhang, XiBACKGROUND:It remains controversial whether weight change could influence the risks of colorectal cancer (CRC) and mortality. This study aimed to quantify the associations between full-spectrum changes in body mass index (BMI) and the risks of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence, cancer-related and all-cause mortality among midlife to elder population. METHODS:A total of 81,388 participants who were free of cancer and aged 55 to 74 years from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) screening program were involved. The percentage change of BMI was calculated as (BMI in 2006 - BMI at baseline)/BMI at baseline, and was categorized into nine groups: decrease (≥ 15.0%, 10.0-14.9%, 5.0-9.9%, 2.5-4.9%), stable (decrease/increase < 2.5%), increase (2.5-4.9%, 5.0-9.9%, 10.0-14.9%, ≥ 15.0%). The associations between percentage change in BMI from study enrolment to follow-up (median: 9.1 years) and the risks of CRC and mortality were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS:After 2006, there were 241 new CRC cases, 648 cancer-related deaths, and 2361 all-cause deaths identified. Overall, the associations between BMI change and CRC incidence and cancer-related mortality, respectively, were not statistically significant. Compared with participants whose BMI were stable, individuals who had a decrease in BMI were at increased risk of all-cause mortality, and the HRs were 1.21 (95% CI: 1.03-1.42), 1.65 (95% CI: 1.44-1.89), 1.84 (95% CI: 1.56-2.17), and 2.84 (95% CI: 2.42-3.35) for 2.5-4.9%, 5.0-9.9%, 10.0-14.9%, and ≥ 15.0% decrease in BMI, respectively. An L-shaped association between BMI change and all-cause mortality was observed. Every 5% decrease in BMI was associated with a 27% increase in the risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.22-1.31, p < 0.001). The results from subgroups showed similar trends. CONCLUSIONS:A decrease in BMI more than 5% shows a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality among older individuals; but no significant association between increase in BMI and all-cause mortality. These findings emphasize the importance of body weight management in older population, and more studies are warranted to evaluate the cause-and-effect relationship between changes in BMI and cancer incidence/mortality.
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