Browsing by Subject "Multi-attribute utility analysis"

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    An Analysis of a Biomass-Fueled Combined Heat and Power Plant for a Colorado Homeowners Association
    (2011-04-28) Thomas, Mikel T.
    I evaluated available technologies and conflicting social, environmental and economic objectives important to a Colorado homeowners association (“the Ranch”) to determine if a combined heat and power (CHP) plant, fueled by woody biomass available on the Ranch, is worth pursuing at this time. The conflicting objectives were to maximize the economics of the CHP plant, minimize the aesthetic impacts of a power plant, minimize the impacts of traffic associated with hauling the biomass from the field to the power plant facility, and maximize the environmental objectives of wildfire risk reduction and carbon dioxide emissions reductions. I reviewed the literature for biomass-fueled CHP technologies that are reported to be commercially available at a scale of less than 35 kilowatts of electricity (limited by available biomass fuel). I performed an economic analysis on three of these technologies, comparing them to the status quo of continuing to purchase energy at retail prices over a 25 year time horizon. Using multiattribute utility analysis, I quantified the conflicting objectives important to the Ranch owners when comparing the single technology that had a positive payback against the status quo, assuming the technology would perform as predicted by the manufacturer. Because the technology is unproven, I then analyzed the effects of uncertainty about the longevity and annual operating capacity on the viability of using such a power facility using multiattribute utility analysis under uncertainty. My results indicated there is currently no basis to suggest pursuing a small scale biomass-fueled CHP plant on the Ranch. The placement of a CHP plant at the Ranch headquarters was too much of an aesthetic concern and the plant technology proved too unreliable to permit environmental benefits to outweigh these negative factors. Development of small scale biomass-fueled combined heat and power technology, so that it is reliable and affordable, will be crucial in the future for these technologies to play a role as an alternative energy strategy for the Ranch.
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    Prioritizing Cape Fear Arch Working Lands for Protection in Southeastern North Carolina
    (2010-04-30T13:36:08Z) Smith, Amy
    The North Carolina Coastal Land Trust, along with twenty other organizations, participates in the Cape Fear Arch Conservation Collaboration, a partnership to conserve high quality natural areas and biodiversity in the Cape Fear Arch, encompassing parts of coastal North and South Carolina. In its Conservation Plan, the Cape Fear Arch Conservation Collaboration cites the importance of working lands. Ecologically, privately owned working lands can serve as corridors of connectivity between larger already protected lands and can have important restoration potential. Private working lands in North Carolina are under increasing pressure from suburbanization and increasing land value, making it financially attractive for private owners to sell their land to developers. Identifying priority parcels of working lands in the Cape Fear Arch would be beneficial to the conservation goals of the Cape Fear Arch Conservation Collaboration as well as preserving the rural, historic, and economic resources of the area. This study prioritized parcels in three Cape Fear Arch Priority Areas located in Bladen and Cumberland County, NC: Suggs Mill Pond/Bushy Lake Complex, Tussock Bay Complex, and Jones Lake/Salters Lake and other Bladen Lakes Forest Bays. I used multi-attribute utility analysis to construct an objectives hierarchy of goals for working lands conservation with Janice Allen of the North Carolina Coastal Land Trust (NCCLT) as the primary decision maker. A preliminary analysis used the fifty largest parcels in the study area, using parcel area as a strict threshold cutoff. The smallest parcel in the preliminary analysis was 495 acres. I identified thirteen criteria: distance to nearest Managed Area (areas already under protection), parcel size, presence of prime agricultural soil, area of farmland, area of forest, forest state (natural or planted), area of significant natural heritage area, stream frontage, North Carolina Coastal Region Evaluation of Wetland Significance wetland type, multiple parcel ownership, enrolled in conservation agreement, percent of parcel in managed area, and presence of known longleaf pine. I assigned each criteria a weight and utility value based on Janice Allen’s input. The results of this analysis successfully prioritized the fifty parcels in the study area on a scale of 0 to 1. Large parcels near Managed Areas and those containing significant natural heritage area or forested areas ranked highest on the priority scale; however, there were some areas that contained significant natural heritage areas that were not identified in the preliminary analysis. A secondary analysis focused on one Priority Area, Suggs Mill Pond/Bushy Lake Complex, and used all parcels greater than one hundred acres. The same objectives hierarchy was used, although the criteria of Presence of Longleaf and Known Conservation Agreements were removed because of difficulty obtaining the data for a large dataset. Results of this analysis suggest that the preliminary analysis missed important parcels for conservation to the NCCLT because they were smaller than the cutoff imposed. The secondary analysis incorporated these parcels and found many to be of high conservation priority for the NCCLT. This study suggests that future prioritizations by the NCCLT use one hundred acres as the base cutoff point, to fully encompass all parcels that could potentially meet their conservation goals. The results further suggest that setting a firm cutoff for one single attribute may overlook valuable alternatives for conservation.
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    Which Nutrient Criteria Should States and Tribes Choose to Determine Waterbody Impairment?: Using Science and Judgments to Inform Decision-making
    (2007-12-12) Kenney, Melissa A
    Nutrients are the number one water pollution problem for U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and ponds. Excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, lead to eutrophication, a condition that can include low oxygen levels, noxious algal blooms, and fish kills. Since eutrophication is a condition that manifests itself differently in different systems, there is not a criterion variable with a clear threshold that can be used to set the criterion level. This dissertation presents an approach to address the question: How should States and Tribes choose nutrient criteria to determine eutrophication-related impairments of the designated use? To address this question I used a combination of water quality modeling and decision analysis to determine the optimal nutrient criterion variables and levels. To choose criterion variables that are predictive of the designated use, I utilized statistical models (structural equation models, multiple regression, and binomial regression model) to link the measured water quality variables to expert elicited categories of eutrophication and the designated uses. These models were applied successfully to single waterbodies, the Kissimmee Chain-of-Lakes region, and the State of North Carolina to assess which candidate criterion variables were the most predictive. Additionally, the models indicated that the variables that were most predictive of eutrophication were also the most predictive of the designated use. Using the predictive nutrient criteria variables, I applied a decision-analytic approach to nutrient criteria setting in North Carolina. I developed a nutrient criteria value model that included two submodels, a water quality model and a multiattribute value model. The submodels were parameterized using a combination of water quality data, expert elicitation data, and utility assessments. The outcome of the nutrient criteria value model is the overall expected value for a criterion level choice; the optimal criterion level would be the choice that maximized the expected value. Using the preferences of North Carolina environmental decision-makers and a total phosphorus criterion variable, the optimal criterion level was between 0.03 mg/L and 0.07 mg/L. Ultimately, I hope this research will establish methodology used to set appropriate water quality criteria.