Browsing by Subject "North Carolina, Western"
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Item Open Access MODELING GOLDEN-WINGED WARBLER HABITAT IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA(2007-05) Brown, JamisonThe 2.5 percent annual decline of the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) over the past 39 years has concerned staff from various wildlife agencies and conservation organizations, prompting increased research to better identify and protect habitat for this neo-tropical migratory warbler. To aid the North Carolina Audubon Society in identifying lands for further research or survey efforts, the objectives of this project included: 1) Using a combination of geographic information systems (GIS) spatial analysis and three statistical modeling approaches – a Classification and Regression Tree (CART), a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), and MaxEnt – to predict suitable habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler across the study area; 2) Combining the results of all three modeling techniques to generate a conservative estimate of predicted habitat; 3) Mapping the results in a GIS, and; 4) Refining and prioritizing the predicted habitat. The results of this statistical analysis suggested that the variables of elevation, distance from developed open space, and the focal mean value of Montane Oak forest may be the most useful in predicting habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler in western North Carolina. To refine the raw, three model combined output, patches less than 10 hectares were omitted. Also, to prioritize patches, three scenarios involving lands managed for conservation and open space and North Carolina Audubon Important Bird Areas (IBAs) were compared by area, number of patches, and county in which the predicted habitat occurred. Finally, several factors may limit the practical use of this modeling effort. Thus, the mapped predicted habitat should only be used to guide further research and is not intended as a basis for management recommendations.Item Open Access Searching for Eastern Old Growth: Modeling Primary Forest in Western North Carolina Using Terrain Attributes and Multispectral Satellite Imagery(2010-12-10) Hushaw, JenniferAfter centuries of timber harvest and conversion of forest to farmland and development, only small pockets of old growth forest remain in the eastern United States. These remnant portions of older forest have intrinsic value as a rare forest type and they play an important ecological function on the landscape. However, old growth forests in the eastern U.S. are less well-studied and documented than their counterparts in the Pacific Northwest. This study was undertaken to predict the geographic location, ecological and spectral characteristics of existing old growth, specifically in the southern Appalachian forests of western North Carolina. Stands of old growth previously field validated by the Southern Appalachian Forest Coalition were used as the response variable. Predictor variables included a range of landscape, topographic, and satellite indices derived from Landsat TM 7 satellite imagery and terrain analysis. Predictions were made using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling techniques. Model results were successful based on validation with existing field data. However, the MaxEnt model produced the most realistic estimate of potential old growth area given the inherent rarity of this forest type and suitability of the MaxEnt modeling technique for predicting the distribution of rare species. Results highlight over 54,000 hectares of potential old growth to be investigated by researchers on the ground. This analysis will contribute to the relatively limited body of knowledge about old growth in the eastern U.S. and is unique in terms of its broad geographic extent. Continued research on these remnant eastern old growth stands must be done to increase our understanding of this rare forest stage and to better inform related management decisions on both public and private land in the eastern U.S.