Browsing by Subject "Prognosis"
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Item Open Access A community approach to mortality prediction in sepsis via gene expression analysis.(Nature communications, 2018-02) Sweeney, Timothy E; Perumal, Thanneer M; Henao, Ricardo; Nichols, Marshall; Howrylak, Judith A; Choi, Augustine M; Bermejo-Martin, Jesús F; Almansa, Raquel; Tamayo, Eduardo; Davenport, Emma E; Burnham, Katie L; Hinds, Charles J; Knight, Julian C; Woods, Christopher W; Kingsmore, Stephen F; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; Wong, Hector R; Parnell, Grant P; Tang, Benjamin; Moldawer, Lyle L; Moore, Frederick E; Omberg, Larsson; Khatri, Purvesh; Tsalik, Ephraim L; Mangravite, Lara M; Langley, Raymond JImproved risk stratification and prognosis prediction in sepsis is a critical unmet need. Clinical severity scores and available assays such as blood lactate reflect global illness severity with suboptimal performance, and do not specifically reveal the underlying dysregulation of sepsis. Here, we present prognostic models for 30-day mortality generated independently by three scientific groups by using 12 discovery cohorts containing transcriptomic data collected from primarily community-onset sepsis patients. Predictive performance is validated in five cohorts of community-onset sepsis patients in which the models show summary AUROCs ranging from 0.765-0.89. Similar performance is observed in four cohorts of hospital-acquired sepsis. Combining the new gene-expression-based prognostic models with prior clinical severity scores leads to significant improvement in prediction of 30-day mortality as measured via AUROC and net reclassification improvement index These models provide an opportunity to develop molecular bedside tests that may improve risk stratification and mortality prediction in patients with sepsis.Item Open Access A TGF-β1 genetic variant at the miRNA187 binding site significantly modifies risk of HPV16-associated oropharyngeal cancer.(International journal of cancer, 2018-09) Tao, Ye; Sturgis, Erich M; Huang, Zhigang; Sun, Yan; Dahlstrom, Kristina R; Wei, Qingyi; Li, GuojunTGF-β1rs1982073 polymorphism at the miRNA-187 binding site may alter TGF-β1 expression and function, and thereby this polymorphism (genotype CT/CC) increases cancer susceptibility. HPV16 L1 seropositivity is associated with the risk of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), including oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) and oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC). Thus, we hypothesized that TGF-β1rs1982073 polymorphism at the miRNA-187 binding site combined with HPV16 L1 seropositivity may have a joint effect on OSCC susceptibility. We determined the genotypes of TGF-β1rs1982073 and HPV16 status in 325 OSCC subjects and 335 cancer-free controls in the non-Hispanic white population, and used logistic regression models to evaluate the joint effects on OSCC susceptibility. TGF-β1rs1982073 polymorphism (CT/CC genotype) combined with HPV16 L1 seropositivity increased the risk of OSCC via joint effects, particularly in OPSCC subjects who were never-smokers (OR, 165.9; 95% CI, 28.6-960.4) or never-drinkers (OR, 196.0; 95% CI, 28.2-1,000.0), respectively. Younger subjects had a higher risk of OPSCC than older subjects (OR, 23.5; 95% CI, 6.3-87.0 vs. OR, 6.0; 95% CI, 1.7-17.9, respectively). The significant associations between this polymorphism and HPV16-associated OSCC and OPSCC were also observed. However, OCSCC subjects did not have similar results. Our findings suggest that the joint effects of TGF-β1rs1982073 and HPV16 L1 seropositivity can increase risk of HPV16-associated oral cancer, particularly in OPSCC subjects who are never-smokers, never-drinkers and young. This result may help us understand the tumorigenesis process and improve early detection, which are critical for prevention and intervention strategies. However, larger studies are needed to validate our findings.Item Open Access Adding Physical Impairment to Risk Stratification Improved Outcome Prediction in Low Back Pain.(Physical therapy, 2020-09-24) Beneciuk, Jason M; George, Steven ZOBJECTIVE:Identifying subgroups of low back pain (LBP) has the potential to improve prediction of clinical outcomes. Risk stratification is one such strategy that identifies similar characteristics indicative of a common clinical outcome trajectory. The purpose of this study was to determine if an empirically derived subgrouping approach based on physical impairment measures improves information provided from the STarT Back Tool (SBT). METHODS:At baseline in this secondary analysis of a cohort study, patients (N = 144) receiving physical therapy for LBP completed the SBT and tests (active lumbar flexion, extension, lateral bending, and passive straight-leg-raise) from a validated physical impairment index. Clinical outcomes were assessed at 4 weeks and included the Numerical Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). Exploratory hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis identified empirically derived subgroups based on physical impairment measures. Independent samples t testing and chi-square analysis assessed baseline subgroup differences in demographic and clinical measures. Spearman rho correlation coefficient was used to assess baseline SBT risk and impairment subgroup relationships, and a 3-way mixed-model ANOVA was used to assessed SBT risk and impairment subgroup relationships with clinical outcomes at 4 weeks. RESULTS:Two physical impairment-based subgroups emerged from cluster analysis: (1) Low-Risk Impairment (n = 119, 81.5%), characterized by greater lumbar mobility and (2) High-Risk Impairment (n = 25, 17.1%), characterized by less lumbar mobility. A weak, positive relationship was observed between baseline SBT risk and impairment subgroups (rs = .170). An impairment-by-SBT risk-by-time interaction effect was observed for ODI scores but not for NPRS scores at 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS:Physical impairment subgroups were not redundant with SBT risk categories and could improve prediction of 4-week LBP disability outcomes. Physical impairment subgroups did not improve the prediction of 4-week pain intensity scores. IMPACT:Subgroups based on physical impairment and psychosocial risk could lead to better prediction of LBP disability outcomes and eventually allow for treatment options tailored to physical and psychosocial risk.Item Open Access An analysis from the Quality Outcomes Database, Part 1. Disability, quality of life, and pain outcomes following lumbar spine surgery: predicting likely individual patient outcomes for shared decision-making.(Journal of neurosurgery. Spine, 2017-10) McGirt, Matthew J; Bydon, Mohamad; Archer, Kristin R; Devin, Clinton J; Chotai, Silky; Parker, Scott L; Nian, Hui; Harrell, Frank E; Speroff, Theodore; Dittus, Robert S; Philips, Sharon E; Shaffrey, Christopher I; Foley, Kevin T; Asher, Anthony LOBJECTIVE Quality and outcomes registry platforms lie at the center of many emerging evidence-driven reform models. Specifically, clinical registry data are progressively informing health care decision-making. In this analysis, the authors used data from a national prospective outcomes registry (the Quality Outcomes Database) to develop a predictive model for 12-month postoperative pain, disability, and quality of life (QOL) in patients undergoing elective lumbar spine surgery. METHODS Included in this analysis were 7618 patients who had completed 12 months of follow-up. The authors prospectively assessed baseline and 12-month patient-reported outcomes (PROs) via telephone interviews. The PROs assessed were those ascertained using the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), EQ-5D, and numeric rating scale (NRS) for back pain (BP) and leg pain (LP). Variables analyzed for the predictive model included age, gender, body mass index, race, education level, history of prior surgery, smoking status, comorbid conditions, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, symptom duration, indication for surgery, number of levels surgically treated, history of fusion surgery, surgical approach, receipt of workers' compensation, liability insurance, insurance status, and ambulatory ability. To create a predictive model, each 12-month PRO was treated as an ordinal dependent variable and a separate proportional-odds ordinal logistic regression model was fitted for each PRO. RESULTS There was a significant improvement in all PROs (p < 0.0001) at 12 months following lumbar spine surgery. The most important predictors of overall disability, QOL, and pain outcomes following lumbar spine surgery were employment status, baseline NRS-BP scores, psychological distress, baseline ODI scores, level of education, workers' compensation status, symptom duration, race, baseline NRS-LP scores, ASA score, age, predominant symptom, smoking status, and insurance status. The prediction discrimination of the 4 separate novel predictive models was good, with a c-index of 0.69 for ODI, 0.69 for EQ-5D, 0.67 for NRS-BP, and 0.64 for NRS-LP (i.e., good concordance between predicted outcomes and observed outcomes). CONCLUSIONS This study found that preoperative patient-specific factors derived from a prospective national outcomes registry significantly influence PRO measures of treatment effectiveness at 12 months after lumbar surgery. Novel predictive models constructed with these data hold the potential to improve surgical effectiveness and the overall value of spine surgery by optimizing patient selection and identifying important modifiable factors before a surgery even takes place. Furthermore, these models can advance patient-focused care when used as shared decision-making tools during preoperative patient counseling.Item Open Access An analysis from the Quality Outcomes Database, Part 2. Predictive model for return to work after elective surgery for lumbar degenerative disease.(Journal of neurosurgery. Spine, 2017-10) Asher, Anthony L; Devin, Clinton J; Archer, Kristin R; Chotai, Silky; Parker, Scott L; Bydon, Mohamad; Nian, Hui; Harrell, Frank E; Speroff, Theodore; Dittus, Robert S; Philips, Sharon E; Shaffrey, Christopher I; Foley, Kevin T; McGirt, Matthew JOBJECTIVE Current costs associated with spine care are unsustainable. Productivity loss and time away from work for patients who were once gainfully employed contributes greatly to the financial burden experienced by individuals and, more broadly, society. Therefore, it is vital to identify the factors associated with return to work (RTW) after lumbar spine surgery. In this analysis, the authors used data from a national prospective outcomes registry to create a predictive model of patients' ability to RTW after undergoing lumbar spine surgery for degenerative spine disease. METHODS Data from 4694 patients who underwent elective spine surgery for degenerative lumbar disease, who had been employed preoperatively, and who had completed a 3-month follow-up evaluation, were entered into a prospective, multicenter registry. Patient-reported outcomes-Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), numeric rating scale (NRS) for back pain (BP) and leg pain (LP), and EQ-5D scores-were recorded at baseline and at 3 months postoperatively. The time to RTW was defined as the period between operation and date of returning to work. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model, including an array of preoperative factors, was fitted for RTW. The model performance was measured using the concordance index (c-index). RESULTS Eighty-two percent of patients (n = 3855) returned to work within 3 months postoperatively. The risk-adjusted predictors of a lower likelihood of RTW were being preoperatively employed but not working at the time of presentation, manual labor as an occupation, worker's compensation, liability insurance for disability, higher preoperative ODI score, higher preoperative NRS-BP score, and demographic factors such as female sex, African American race, history of diabetes, and higher American Society of Anesthesiologists score. The likelihood of a RTW within 3 months was higher in patients with higher education level than in those with less than high school-level education. The c-index of the model's performance was 0.71. CONCLUSIONS This study presents a novel predictive model for the probability of returning to work after lumbar spine surgery. Spine care providers can use this model to educate patients and encourage them in shared decision-making regarding the RTW outcome. This evidence-based decision support will result in better communication between patients and clinicians and improve postoperative recovery expectations, which will ultimately increase the likelihood of a positive RTW trajectory.Item Open Access Angina and Future Cardiovascular Events in Stable Patients With Coronary Artery Disease: Insights From the Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry.(Journal of the American Heart Association, 2016-09-28) Eisen, Alon; Bhatt, Deepak L; Steg, P Gabriel; Eagle, Kim A; Goto, Shinya; Guo, Jianping; Smith, Sidney C; Ohman, E Magnus; Scirica, Benjamin M; REACH Registry InvestigatorsThe extent to which angina is associated with future cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease has long been debated.Included were outpatients with established coronary artery disease who were enrolled in the REACH registry and were followed for 4 years. Angina at baseline was defined as necessitating episodic or permanent antianginal treatment. The primary end point was the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Secondary end points included heart failure, cardiovascular hospitalizations, and coronary revascularization. The independent association between angina and first/total events was examined using Cox and logistic regression models. Out of 26 159 patients with established coronary artery disease, 13 619 (52%) had angina at baseline. Compared with patients without angina, patients with angina were more likely to be older, female, and had more heart failure and polyvascular disease (P<0.001 for each). Compared with patients without angina, patients with angina had higher rates of first primary end-point event (14.2% versus 16.3%, unadjusted hazard ratio 1.19, CI 1.11-1.27, P<0.001; adjusted hazard ratio 1.06, CI 0.99-1.14, P=0.11), and total primary end-point events (adjusted risk ratio 1.08, CI 1.01-1.16, P=0.03). Patients with angina were at increased risk for heart failure (adjusted odds ratio 1.17, CI 1.06-1.28, P=0.002), cardiovascular hospitalizations (adjusted odds ratio 1.29, CI 1.21-1.38, P<0.001), and coronary revascularization (adjusted odds ratio 1.23, CI 1.13-1.34, P<0.001).Patients with stable coronary artery disease and angina have higher rates of future cardiovascular events compared with patients without angina. After adjustment, angina was only weakly associated with cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, but significantly associated with heart failure, cardiovascular hospitalization, and coronary revascularization.Item Open Access Antiviral inhibitory capacity of CD8+ T cells predicts the rate of CD4+ T-cell decline in HIV-1 infection.(J Infect Dis, 2012-08-15) Yang, H; Wu, H; Hancock, G; Clutton, G; Sande, N; Xu, X; Yan, H; Huang, X; Angus, B; Kuldanek, K; Fidler, S; Denny, TN; Birks, J; McMichael, A; Dorrell, LBACKGROUND: Rare human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected individuals who maintain control of viremia without therapy show potent CD8+ T-cell-mediated suppression of viral replication in vitro. Whether this is a determinant of the rate of disease progression in viremic individuals is unknown. METHODS: We measured CD8+ T-cell-mediated inhibition of a heterologous HIV-1 isolate in 50 HIV-1-seropositive adults with diverse progression rates. Linear mixed models were used to determine whether CD8+ T-cell function could explain variation in the rate of CD4+ T-cell decline. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between CD8+ T-cell antiviral activity in vitro and the rate of CD4+ T-cell decline in chronically infected individuals (P < .0001). In a second prospective analysis of recently infected subjects followed for up to 3 years, CD8+ T-cell antiviral activity strongly predicted subsequent CD4+ T-cell decline (P < .0001) and explained up to 73% of the interindividual variation in the CD4+ T-cell slope. In addition, it was inversely associated with viral load set point (r = -0.68 and P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: The antiviral inhibitory capacity of CD8+ T cells is highly predictive of CD4+ T-cell loss in early HIV-1 infection. It has potential as a benchmark of effective immunity in vaccine evaluation.Item Open Access Association of Common Genetic Polymorphisms with Melanoma Patient IL-12p40 Blood Levels, Risk, and Outcomes.(J Invest Dermatol, 2015-09) Fang, Shenying; Wang, Yuling; Chun, Yun S; Liu, Huey; Ross, Merrick I; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; Cormier, Janice N; Royal, Richard E; Lucci, Anthony; Schacherer, Christopher W; Reveille, John D; Chen, Wei; Sui, Dawen; Bassett, Roland L; Wang, Li-E; Wei, Qingyi; Amos, Christopher I; Lee, Jeffrey ERecent investigation has identified association of IL-12p40 blood levels with melanoma recurrence and patient survival. No studies have investigated associations of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with melanoma patient IL-12p40 blood levels or their potential contributions to melanoma susceptibility or patient outcome. In the current study, 818,237 SNPs were available for 1,804 melanoma cases and 1,026 controls. IL-12p40 blood levels were assessed among 573 cases (discovery), 249 cases (case validation), and 299 controls (control validation). SNPs were evaluated for association with log[IL-12p40] levels in the discovery data set and replicated in two validation data sets, and significant SNPs were assessed for association with melanoma susceptibility and patient outcomes. The most significant SNP associated with log[IL-12p40] was in the IL-12B gene region (rs6897260, combined P=9.26 × 10(-38)); this single variant explained 13.1% of variability in log[IL-12p40]. The most significant SNP in EBF1 was rs6895454 (combined P=2.24 × 10(-9)). A marker in IL12B was associated with melanoma susceptibility (rs3213119, multivariate P=0.0499; OR=1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.24), whereas a marker in EBF1 was associated with melanoma-specific survival in advanced-stage patients (rs10515789, multivariate P=0.02; HR=1.93, 95% CI 1.11-3.35). Both EBF1 and IL12B strongly regulate IL-12p40 blood levels, and IL-12p40 polymorphisms may contribute to melanoma susceptibility and influence patient outcome.Item Open Access Automatic identification of variables in epidemiological datasets using logic regression.(BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2017-04) Lorenz, Matthias W; Abdi, Negin Ashtiani; Scheckenbach, Frank; Pflug, Anja; Bülbül, Alpaslan; Catapano, Alberico L; Agewall, Stefan; Ezhov, Marat; Bots, Michiel L; Kiechl, Stefan; Orth, Andreas; PROG-IMT study groupBackground
For an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis, multiple datasets must be transformed in a consistent format, e.g. using uniform variable names. When large numbers of datasets have to be processed, this can be a time-consuming and error-prone task. Automated or semi-automated identification of variables can help to reduce the workload and improve the data quality. For semi-automation high sensitivity in the recognition of matching variables is particularly important, because it allows creating software which for a target variable presents a choice of source variables, from which a user can choose the matching one, with only low risk of having missed a correct source variable.Methods
For each variable in a set of target variables, a number of simple rules were manually created. With logic regression, an optimal Boolean combination of these rules was searched for every target variable, using a random subset of a large database of epidemiological and clinical cohort data (construction subset). In a second subset of this database (validation subset), this optimal combination rules were validated.Results
In the construction sample, 41 target variables were allocated on average with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 34%, and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 95%. In the validation sample, PPV was 33%, whereas NPV remained at 94%. In the construction sample, PPV was 50% or less in 63% of all variables, in the validation sample in 71% of all variables.Conclusions
We demonstrated that the application of logic regression in a complex data management task in large epidemiological IPD meta-analyses is feasible. However, the performance of the algorithm is poor, which may require backup strategies.Item Open Access Blood Pressure Response during Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing in Heart Failure.(Medicine and science in sports and exercise, 2018-07) Il'giovine, Zachary J; Solomon, Nicole; Devore, Adam D; Wojdyla, Daniel; Patel, Chetan B; Rogers, Joseph GIntroduction
The prognostic value of peak V˙O2 and V˙E/V˙CO2 slope measured during cardiopulmonary exercise (CPX) testing has been well established in patients with advanced heart failure, but blood pressure response to exercise is less well characterized.Methods
We retrospectively studied 151 outpatients who underwent CPX testing as part of an advanced heart failure evaluation. The outcome of interest was failure of medical management, defined by death, cardiac transplantation, or left ventricular assist device placement. Patients were stratified into tertiles by change in systolic blood pressure (SBP) (<13, 13-26, and ≥27 mm Hg) during exercise.Results
Patients in the lowest tertile had the lowest peak V˙O2 (10.2 vs 10.6 vs 13.6 mL·kg·min, P = <0.001), the highest V˙E/V˙CO2 slope (42.8 vs 42.1 vs 36.3, P = 0.030), the shortest mean exercise time (5.1 vs 6.0 vs 7.0 min, P = <0.001), and the highest probability of failure of medical management at 1.5 yr (0.69 vs 0.41 vs 0.34, P = 0.011). After multivariate adjustment, increased SBP <20 mm Hg during exercise was associated with a lower hazard of medical management failure (hazard ratio = 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.934-0.987), whereas SBP increases >20 mm Hg were associated with an increased hazard (hazard ratio = 1.046, 95% CI = 1.018-1.075).Conclusion
In conclusion, changes in SBP during CPX testing provide additional prognostic information above standard clinical variables. The peculiar increase in risk noted in those with a rise in SBP >20 mm Hg is less clear and needs to be investigated further.Item Open Access Breast cancer as heterogeneous disease: contributing factors and carcinogenesis mechanisms.(Breast Cancer Res Treat, 2011-07) Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Seewaldt, Victoria L; Abernethy, Amy P; Lyerly, H KimThe observed bimodal patterns of breast cancer incidence in the U.S. suggested that breast cancer may be viewed as more than one biological entity. We studied the factors potentially contributing to this phenomenon, specifically focusing on how disease heterogeneity could be linked to breast carcinogenesis mechanisms. Using empirical analyses and population-based biologically motivated modeling, age-specific patterns of incidence of ductal and lobular breast carcinomas from the SEER registry (1990-2003) were analyzed for heterogeneity and characteristics of carcinogenesis, stratified by race, stage, grade, and estrogen (ER)/progesterone (PR) receptor status. The heterogeneity of breast carcinoma age patterns decreased after stratification by grade, especially for grade I and III tumors. Stratification by ER/PR status further reduced the heterogeneity, especially for ER(+)/PR(-) and ER(-)/(-) tumors; however, the residual heterogeneity was still observed. The number of rate-limiting events of carcinogenesis and the latency of ductal and lobular carcinomas differed, decreasing from grade I to III, with poorly differentiated tumors associated with the least number of carcinogenesis stages and the shortest latency. Tumor grades play important role in bimodal incidence of breast carcinoma and have distinct mechanisms of carcinogenesis. Race and cancer subtype could play modifying role. ER/PR status contributes to the observed heterogeneity, but is subdominant to tumor grade. Further studies on sources of "remaining" heterogeneity of population with breast cancer (such as genetic/epigenetic characteristics) are necessary. The results of this study could suggest stratification rather than unification of breast cancer prevention strategies, risk assessment, and treatment.Item Open Access C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and cardiovascular disease prediction.(The New England journal of medicine, 2012-10) Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration; Kaptoge, Stephen; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Pennells, Lisa; Wood, Angela M; White, Ian R; Gao, Pei; Walker, Matthew; Thompson, Alexander; Sarwar, Nadeem; Caslake, Muriel; Butterworth, Adam S; Amouyel, Philippe; Assmann, Gerd; Bakker, Stephan JL; Barr, Elizabeth LM; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Benjamin, Emelia J; Björkelund, Cecilia; Brenner, Hermann; Brunner, Eric; Clarke, Robert; Cooper, Jackie A; Cremer, Peter; Cushman, Mary; Dagenais, Gilles R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Dankner, Rachel; Davey-Smith, George; Deeg, Dorly; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Engström, Gunnar; Folsom, Aaron R; Fowkes, F Gerry R; Gallacher, John; Gaziano, J Michael; Giampaoli, Simona; Gillum, Richard F; Hofman, Albert; Howard, Barbara V; Ingelsson, Erik; Iso, Hiroyasu; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiechl, Stefan; Kitamura, Akihiko; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Koenig, Wolfgang; Kromhout, Daan; Kuller, Lewis H; Lawlor, Debbie A; Meade, Tom W; Nissinen, Aulikki; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Onat, Altan; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Psaty, Bruce M; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Rosengren, Annika; Salomaa, Veikko; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T; Shaffer, Jonathan A; Shea, Steven; Ford, Ian; Stehouwer, Coen DA; Strandberg, Timo E; Tipping, Robert W; Tosetto, Alberto; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Wennberg, Patrik; Westendorp, Rudi G; Whincup, Peter H; Wilhelmsen, Lars; Woodward, Mark; Lowe, Gordon DO; Wareham, Nicholas J; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Sattar, Naveed; Packard, Chris J; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Ridker, Paul M; Pepys, Mark B; Thompson, Simon G; Danesh, JohnThere is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events.We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen.The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years.In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).Item Open Access CD30 expression defines a novel subgroup of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma with favorable prognosis and distinct gene expression signature: a report from the International DLBCL Rituximab-CHOP Consortium Program Study.(Blood, 2013-04) Hu, Shimin; Xu-Monette, Zijun Y; Balasubramanyam, Aarthi; Manyam, Ganiraju C; Visco, Carlo; Tzankov, Alexander; Liu, Wei-min; Miranda, Roberto N; Zhang, Li; Montes-Moreno, Santiago; Dybkær, Karen; Chiu, April; Orazi, Attilio; Zu, Youli; Bhagat, Govind; Richards, Kristy L; Hsi, Eric D; Choi, William WL; Han van Krieken, J; Huang, Qin; Huh, Jooryung; Ai, Weiyun; Ponzoni, Maurilio; Ferreri, Andrés JM; Zhao, Xiaoying; Winter, Jane N; Zhang, Mingzhi; Li, Ling; Møller, Michael B; Piris, Miguel A; Li, Yong; Go, Ronald S; Wu, Lin; Medeiros, L Jeffrey; Young, Ken HCD30, originally identified as a cell-surface marker of Reed-Sternberg and Hodgkin cells of classical Hodgkin lymphoma, is also expressed by several types of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, including a subset of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). However, the prognostic and biological importance of CD30 expression in DLBCL is unknown. Here we report that CD30 expression is a favorable prognostic factor in a cohort of 903 de novo DLBCL patients. CD30 was expressed in ∼14% of DLBCL patients. Patients with CD30(+) DLBCL had superior 5-year overall survival (CD30(+), 79% vs CD30(-), 59%; P = .001) and progression-free survival (P = .003). The favorable outcome of CD30 expression was maintained in both the germinal center B-cell and activated B-cell subtypes. Gene expression profiling revealed the upregulation of genes encoding negative regulators of nuclear factor κB activation and lymphocyte survival, and downregulation of genes encoding B-cell receptor signaling and proliferation, as well as prominent cytokine and stromal signatures in CD30(+) DLBCL patients, suggesting a distinct molecular basis for its favorable outcome. Given the superior prognostic value, unique gene expression signature, and significant value of CD30 as a therapeutic target for brentuximab vedotin in ongoing successful clinical trials, it seems appropriate to consider CD30(+) DLBCL as a distinct subgroup of DLBCL.Item Open Access Chapter 11: challenges in and principles for conducting systematic reviews of genetic tests used as predictive indicators.(Journal of general internal medicine, 2012-06) Jonas, Daniel E; Wilt, Timothy J; Taylor, Brent C; Wilkins, Tania M; Matchar, David BIn this paper, we discuss common challenges in and principles for conducting systematic reviews of genetic tests. The types of genetic tests discussed are those used to 1). determine risk or susceptibility in asymptomatic individuals; 2). reveal prognostic information to guide clinical management in those with a condition; or 3). predict response to treatments or environmental factors. This paper is not intended to provide comprehensive guidance on evaluating all genetic tests. Rather, it focuses on issues that have been of particular concern to analysts and stakeholders and on areas that are of particular relevance for the evaluation of studies of genetic tests. The key points include: The general principles that apply in evaluating genetic tests are similar to those for other prognostic or predictive tests, but there are differences in how the principles need to be applied or the degree to which certain issues are relevant. A clear definition of the clinical scenario and an analytic framework is important when evaluating any test, including genetic tests. Organizing frameworks and analytic frameworks are useful constructs for approaching the evaluation of genetic tests. In constructing an analytic framework for evaluating a genetic test, analysts should consider preanalytic, analytic, and postanalytic factors; such factors are useful when assessing analytic validity. Predictive genetic tests are generally characterized by a delayed time between testing and clinically important events. Finding published information on the analytic validity of some genetic tests may be difficult. Web sites (FDA or diagnostic companies) and gray literature may be important sources. In situations where clinical factors associated with risk are well characterized, comparative effectiveness reviews should assess the added value of using genetic testing along with known factors compared with using the known factors alone. For genome-wide association studies, reviewers should determine whether the association has been validated in multiple studies to minimize both potential confounding and publication bias. In addition, reviewers should note whether appropriate adjustments for multiple comparisons were used.Item Open Access Characteristics of abdominal vein thrombosis in children and adults.(Thromb Haemost, 2013-04) Landi, Daniel; Beckman, Michele G; Shah, Nirmish R; Bockenstedt, Paula; Grant, Althea M; Heit, John A; Key, Nigel S; Kulkarni, Roshni; Manco-Johnson, Marilyn; Moll, Stephan; Philipp, Claire S; Andersen, Judith C; Ortel, Thomas LThe demographic and clinical characteristics of adults and children with lower extremity deep-vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism (LE DVT/PE) may differ from those with abdominal vein thrombosis (abdominal VT). Abdominal VT can be a presenting sign of an underlying prothrombotic state, and its presence in the setting of known disease might have prognostic implications different from LE DVT/PE. This study describes clinical presentations of abdominal VT compared to LE DVT/PE in adults and children. We analysed prospectively-collected data from consecutive consenting patients enrolled in one of seven Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded Thrombosis and Hemostasis Network Centers from August 2003 to April 2011 to compare the demographic and clinical characteristics of adults and children with abdominal VT. Both adults and children with abdominal VT tended to be younger and have a lower body mass index (BMI) than those with LE DVT/PE. Of patients with abdominal VT, children were more likely to have inferior vena cava (IVC) thrombosis than adults. For adults with venous thromboembolism (VTE), relatively more women had abdominal VT than LE DVT/PE, while the proportions with LE DVT/PE and abdominal VT by sex were similar in children. Children with abdominal VT were more likely to have diagnosed inherited thrombophilia, while trauma was more common in children with LE DVT/PE. In conclusion, both children and adults with abdominal VT were younger with a lower BMI than those with LE DVT/PE. Significant differences exist between children and adults in respect to abdominal VT compared to LE DVT/PE.Item Open Access Clinical and radiographic parameters associated with best versus worst clinical outcomes in minimally invasive spinal deformity surgery.(Journal of neurosurgery. Spine, 2016-07) Than, Khoi D; Park, Paul; Fu, Kai-Ming; Nguyen, Stacie; Wang, Michael Y; Chou, Dean; Nunley, Pierce D; Anand, Neel; Fessler, Richard G; Shaffrey, Christopher I; Bess, Shay; Akbarnia, Behrooz A; Deviren, Vedat; Uribe, Juan S; La Marca, Frank; Kanter, Adam S; Okonkwo, David O; Mundis, Gregory M; Mummaneni, Praveen V; International Spine Study GroupOBJECTIVE Minimally invasive surgery (MIS) techniques are increasingly used to treat adult spinal deformity. However, standard minimally invasive spinal deformity techniques have a more limited ability to restore sagittal balance and match the pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis (PI-LL) than traditional open surgery. This study sought to compare "best" versus "worst" outcomes of MIS to identify variables that may predispose patients to postoperative success. METHODS A retrospective review of minimally invasive spinal deformity surgery cases was performed to identify parameters in the 20% of patients who had the greatest improvement in Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) scores versus those in the 20% of patients who had the least improvement in ODI scores at 2 years' follow-up. RESULTS One hundred four patients met the inclusion criteria, and the top 20% of patients in terms of ODI improvement at 2 years (best group, 22 patients) were compared with the bottom 20% (worst group, 21 patients). There were no statistically significant differences in age, body mass index, pre- and postoperative Cobb angles, pelvic tilt, pelvic incidence, levels fused, operating room time, and blood loss between the best and worst groups. However, the mean preoperative ODI score was significantly higher (worse disability) at baseline in the group that had the greatest improvement in ODI score (58.2 vs 39.7, p < 0.001). There was no difference in preoperative PI-LL mismatch (12.8° best vs 19.5° worst, p = 0.298). The best group had significantly less postoperative sagittal vertical axis (SVA; 3.4 vs 6.9 cm, p = 0.043) and postoperative PI-LL mismatch (10.4° vs 19.4°, p = 0.027) than the worst group. The best group also had better postoperative visual analog scale back and leg pain scores (p = 0.001 and p = 0.046, respectively). CONCLUSIONS The authors recommend that spinal deformity surgeons using MIS techniques focus on correcting a patient's PI-LL mismatch to within 10° and restoring SVA to < 5 cm. Restoration of these parameters seems to impact which patients will attain the greatest degree of improvement in ODI outcomes, while the spines of patients who do the worst are not appropriately corrected and may be fused into a fixed sagittal plane deformity.Item Open Access Clinician judgment vs formal scales for predicting intracerebral hemorrhage outcomes.(Neurology, 2016-01-12) Hwang, David Y; Dell, Cameron A; Sparks, Mary J; Watson, Tiffany D; Langefeld, Carl D; Comeau, Mary E; Rosand, Jonathan; Battey, Thomas WK; Koch, Sebastian; Perez, Mario L; James, Michael L; McFarlin, Jessica; Osborne, Jennifer L; Woo, Daniel; Kittner, Steven J; Sheth, Kevin NOBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of formal prognostic instruments vs subjective clinical judgment with regards to predicting functional outcome in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). METHODS: This prospective observational study enrolled 121 ICH patients hospitalized at 5 US tertiary care centers. Within 24 hours of each patient's admission to the hospital, one physician and one nurse on each patient's clinical team were each asked to predict the patient's modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3 months and to indicate whether he or she would recommend comfort measures. The admission ICH score and FUNC score, 2 prognostic scales selected for their common use in neurologic practice, were calculated for each patient. Spearman rank correlation coefficients (r) with respect to patients' actual 3-month mRS for the physician and nursing predictions were compared against the same correlation coefficients for the ICH score and FUNC score. RESULTS: The absolute value of the correlation coefficient for physician predictions with respect to actual outcome (0.75) was higher than that of either the ICH score (0.62, p = 0.057) or the FUNC score (0.56, p = 0.01). The nursing predictions of outcome (r = 0.72) also trended towards an accuracy advantage over the ICH score (p = 0.09) and FUNC score (p = 0.03). In an analysis that excluded patients for whom comfort care was recommended, the 65 available attending physician predictions retained greater accuracy (r = 0.73) than either the ICH score (r = 0.50, p = 0.02) or the FUNC score (r = 0.42, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Early subjective clinical judgment of physicians correlates more closely with 3-month outcome after ICH than prognostic scales.Item Open Access Clinician's guide to the updated ABCs of cardiovascular disease prevention.(Journal of the American Heart Association, 2014-09) Kohli, Payal; Whelton, Seamus P; Hsu, Steven; Yancy, Clyde W; Stone, Neil J; Chrispin, Jonathan; Gilotra, Nisha A; Houston, Brian; Ashen, M Dominique; Martin, Seth S; Joshi, Parag H; McEvoy, John W; Gluckman, Ty J; Michos, Erin D; Blaha, Michael J; Blumenthal, Roger STo facilitate the guideline-based implementation of treatment recommendations in the ambulatory setting and to encourage participation in the multiple preventive health efforts that exist, we have organized several recent guideline updates into a simple ABCDEF approach. We would remind clinicians that evidence-based medicine is meant to inform recommendations but that synthesis of patient-specific data and use of appropriate clinical judgment in each individual situation is ultimately preferred.Item Open Access Complexity of Delivering Precision Medicine: Opportunities and Challenges.(American Society of Clinical Oncology educational book. American Society of Clinical Oncology. Annual Meeting, 2018-05) Davis, Andrew A; McKee, Amy E; Kibbe, Warren A; Villaflor, Victoria MPrecision medicine has emerged as a tool to match patients with the appropriate treatment based on the precise molecular features of an individual patient's tumor. Although examples of targeted therapies exist resulting in dramatic improvements in patient outcomes, comprehensive genomic profiling of tumors has also demonstrated the incredible complexity of molecular alterations in tissue and blood. These sequencing methods provide opportunities to study the landscape of tumors at baseline and serially in response to treatment. These tools also serve as important biomarkers to detect resistance to treatment and determine higher likelihood of responding to particular treatments, such as immune checkpoint blockade. Federally funded and publicly available data repositories have emerged as mechanisms for data sharing. In addition, novel clinical trials are emerging to develop new ways of incorporating molecular matched therapy into clinical trials. Various challenges to delivery of precision oncology include understanding the complexity of advanced tumors based on evolving "omics" and treatment resistance. For physicians, determining when and how to incorporate genetic and molecular tools into clinic in a cost-effective manner is critical. Finally, we discuss the importance of well-designed prospective clinical trials, biomarkers such as liquid biopsies, the use of multidisciplinary tumor boards, and data sharing as evidence-based medicine tools to optimally study and deliver precision oncology to our patients.Item Open Access Comprehensive gene expression profiling and immunohistochemical studies support application of immunophenotypic algorithm for molecular subtype classification in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: a report from the International DLBCL Rituximab-CHOP Consortium Program Study.(Leukemia, 2012-09) Visco, C; Li, Y; Xu-Monette, ZY; Miranda, RN; Green, TM; Li, Y; Tzankov, A; Wen, W; Liu, W-M; Kahl, BS; d'Amore, ESG; Montes-Moreno, S; Dybkær, K; Chiu, A; Tam, W; Orazi, A; Zu, Y; Bhagat, G; Winter, JN; Wang, H-Y; O'Neill, S; Dunphy, CH; Hsi, ED; Zhao, XF; Go, RS; Choi, WWL; Zhou, F; Czader, M; Tong, J; Zhao, X; van Krieken, JH; Huang, Q; Ai, W; Etzell, J; Ponzoni, M; Ferreri, AJM; Piris, MA; Møller, MB; Bueso-Ramos, CE; Medeiros, LJ; Wu, L; Young, KHGene expression profiling (GEP) has stratified diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) into molecular subgroups that correspond to different stages of lymphocyte development-namely germinal center B-cell like and activated B-cell like. This classification has prognostic significance, but GEP is expensive and not readily applicable into daily practice, which has lead to immunohistochemical algorithms proposed as a surrogate for GEP analysis. We assembled tissue microarrays from 475 de novo DLBCL patients who were treated with rituximab-CHOP chemotherapy. All cases were successfully profiled by GEP on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples. Sections were stained with antibodies reactive with CD10, GCET1, FOXP1, MUM1 and BCL6 and cases were classified following a rationale of sequential steps of differentiation of B cells. Cutoffs for each marker were obtained using receiver-operating characteristic curves, obviating the need for any arbitrary method. An algorithm based on the expression of CD10, FOXP1 and BCL6 was developed that had a simpler structure than other recently proposed algorithms and 92.6% concordance with GEP. In multivariate analysis, both the International Prognostic Index and our proposed algorithm were significant independent predictors of progression-free and overall survival. In conclusion, this algorithm effectively predicts prognosis of DLBCL patients matching GEP subgroups in the era of rituximab therapy.