Browsing by Subject "Proportional Hazards Models"
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Item Open Access A few remarks on 'Statistical distribution of the difference of two proportions' by Nadarajah and Kotz, Statistics in Medicine 2007; 26(18):3518-3523.(Statistics in medicine, 2011-07) Chen, Yong; Luo, ShengItem Open Access Age of first drunkenness and risks for all-cause mortality: A 27-year follow-up from the epidemiologic catchment area study.(Drug and alcohol dependence, 2017-07) Hu, Hui; Eaton, William W; Anthony, James C; Wu, Li-Tzy; Cottler, Linda BEarly-onset drunkenness is associated with an increased risk of developing an alcohol use disorder (AUD), which predicts excess mortality risk. Here, we estimated mortality risk for drinkers with and without early drunkenness.For 14,848 adult participants interviewed about drinking, drunken episodes, and AUD in 1981-83 for the Epidemiologic Catchment Area in New Haven (Connecticut), Baltimore (Maryland), St. Louis (Missouri), and Durham (North Carolina), we linked National Death Index records through 2007.Cox regression modeling estimates showed excess mortality for drinkers with age of first drunkenness earlier than 15 years old (hazard ratio, HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.72) and when first drunkenness occurred at or after age 15 (HR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.29), as compared with adults who had never been drunk. Consistent results were observed, irrespective of AUD history. That is, early drunkenness signaled excess mortality risk even in absence of AUD.In a large community sample from four cities in the US, early age of onset of drunkenness predicts mortality risk. We discuss experiments to investigate the possible causal significance of this predictive association.Item Open Access Angina and Future Cardiovascular Events in Stable Patients With Coronary Artery Disease: Insights From the Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry.(Journal of the American Heart Association, 2016-09-28) Eisen, Alon; Bhatt, Deepak L; Steg, P Gabriel; Eagle, Kim A; Goto, Shinya; Guo, Jianping; Smith, Sidney C; Ohman, E Magnus; Scirica, Benjamin M; REACH Registry InvestigatorsThe extent to which angina is associated with future cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease has long been debated.Included were outpatients with established coronary artery disease who were enrolled in the REACH registry and were followed for 4 years. Angina at baseline was defined as necessitating episodic or permanent antianginal treatment. The primary end point was the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. Secondary end points included heart failure, cardiovascular hospitalizations, and coronary revascularization. The independent association between angina and first/total events was examined using Cox and logistic regression models. Out of 26 159 patients with established coronary artery disease, 13 619 (52%) had angina at baseline. Compared with patients without angina, patients with angina were more likely to be older, female, and had more heart failure and polyvascular disease (P<0.001 for each). Compared with patients without angina, patients with angina had higher rates of first primary end-point event (14.2% versus 16.3%, unadjusted hazard ratio 1.19, CI 1.11-1.27, P<0.001; adjusted hazard ratio 1.06, CI 0.99-1.14, P=0.11), and total primary end-point events (adjusted risk ratio 1.08, CI 1.01-1.16, P=0.03). Patients with angina were at increased risk for heart failure (adjusted odds ratio 1.17, CI 1.06-1.28, P=0.002), cardiovascular hospitalizations (adjusted odds ratio 1.29, CI 1.21-1.38, P<0.001), and coronary revascularization (adjusted odds ratio 1.23, CI 1.13-1.34, P<0.001).Patients with stable coronary artery disease and angina have higher rates of future cardiovascular events compared with patients without angina. After adjustment, angina was only weakly associated with cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, but significantly associated with heart failure, cardiovascular hospitalization, and coronary revascularization.Item Open Access Association Between Comorbidities and Outcomes in Heart Failure Patients With and Without an Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator for Primary Prevention.(J Am Heart Assoc, 2015-08-06) Khazanie, Prateeti; Hellkamp, Anne S; Fonarow, Gregg C; Bhatt, Deepak L; Masoudi, Frederick A; Anstrom, Kevin J; Heidenreich, Paul A; Yancy, Clyde W; Curtis, Lesley H; Hernandez, Adrian F; Peterson, Eric D; Al-Khatib, Sana MBACKGROUND: Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy is associated with improved outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF), but whether this association holds among older patients with multiple comorbid illnesses and worse HF burden remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the National Cardiovascular Data Registry's ICD Registry and the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) registry linked with Medicare claims, we examined outcomes associated with primary-prevention ICD versus no ICD among HF patients aged ≥65 years in clinical practice. We included patients with an ejection fraction ≤35% who received (ICD Registry) and who did not receive (GWTG-HF) an ICD. Compared with patients with an ICD, patients in the non-ICD group were older and more likely to be female and white. In matched cohorts, the 3-year adjusted mortality rate was lower in the ICD group versus the non-ICD group (46.7% versus 55.8%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.76; 95% CI 0.69 to 0.83). There was no associated difference in all-cause readmission (HR 0.99; 95% CI 0.92 to 1.08) but a lower risk of HF readmission (HR 0.88; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.97). When compared with no ICD, ICDs were also associated with better survival in patients with ≤3 comorbidities (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.69 to 0.87) and >3 comorbidities (HR 0.77; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.93) and in patients with no hospitalization for HF (HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.65 to 0.86) and at least 1 prior HF hospitalization (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.82). In subgroup analyses, there were no interactions between ICD and mortality risk for comorbidity burden (P=0.95) and for prior HF hospitalization (P=0.46). CONCLUSION: Among older HF patients, ICDs for primary prevention were associated with lower risk of mortality even among those with high comorbid illness burden and prior HF hospitalization.Item Open Access Association Between Thrombolytic Door-to-Needle Time and 1-Year Mortality and Readmission in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke.(JAMA, 2020-06) Man, Shumei; Xian, Ying; Holmes, DaJuanicia N; Matsouaka, Roland A; Saver, Jeffrey L; Smith, Eric E; Bhatt, Deepak L; Schwamm, Lee H; Fonarow, Gregg CImportance:Earlier administration of intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in acute ischemic stroke is associated with reduced mortality by the time of hospital discharge and better functional outcomes at 3 months. However, it remains unclear whether shorter door-to-needle times translate into better long-term outcomes. Objective:To examine whether shorter door-to-needle times with intravenous tPA for acute ischemic stroke are associated with improved long-term outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants:This retrospective cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older who were treated for acute ischemic stroke with intravenous tPA within 4.5 hours from the time they were last known to be well at Get With The Guidelines-Stroke participating hospitals between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2016, with 1-year follow-up through December 31, 2017. Exposures:Door-to-needle times for intravenous tPA. Main Outcomes and Measures:The primary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, all-cause readmission, and the composite of all-cause mortality or readmission. Results:Among the 61 426 patients treated with tPA within 4.5 hours, the median age was 80 years and 43.5% were male. The median door-to-needle time was 65 minutes (interquartile range, 49-88 minutes). The 48 666 patients (79.2%) who were treated with tPA and had door-to-needle times of longer than 45 minutes, compared with those treated within 45 minutes, had significantly higher all-cause mortality (35.0% vs 30.8%, respectively; adjusted HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.09-1.18]), higher all-cause readmission (40.8% vs 38.4%; adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.12]), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (56.0% vs 52.1%; adjusted HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.06-1.12]). The 34 367 patients (55.9%) who were treated with tPA and had door-to-needle times of longer than 60 minutes, compared with those treated within 60 minutes, had significantly higher all-cause mortality (35.8% vs 32.1%, respectively; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 [95% CI, 1.07-1.14]), higher all-cause readmission (41.3% vs 39.1%; adjusted HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10]), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (56.8% vs 53.1%; adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.10]). Every 15-minute increase in door-to-needle times was significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.02-1.05]) within 90 minutes after hospital arrival, but not after 90 minutes (adjusted HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.99-1.03]), higher all-cause readmission (adjusted HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (adjusted HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.03]). Conclusions and Relevance:Among patients aged 65 years or older with acute ischemic stroke who were treated with tissue plasminogen activator, shorter door-to-needle times were associated with lower all-cause mortality and lower all-cause readmission at 1 year. These findings support efforts to shorten time to thrombolytic therapy.Item Open Access Association of a peripheral blood metabolic profile with coronary artery disease and risk of subsequent cardiovascular events.(Circ Cardiovasc Genet, 2010-04) Shah, Svati H; Bain, James R; Muehlbauer, Michael J; Stevens, Robert D; Crosslin, David R; Haynes, Carol; Dungan, Jennifer; Newby, L Kristin; Hauser, Elizabeth R; Ginsburg, Geoffrey S; Newgard, Christopher B; Kraus, William EBACKGROUND: Molecular tools may provide insight into cardiovascular risk. We assessed whether metabolites discriminate coronary artery disease (CAD) and predict risk of cardiovascular events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed mass-spectrometry-based profiling of 69 metabolites in subjects from the CATHGEN biorepository. To evaluate discriminative capabilities of metabolites for CAD, 2 groups were profiled: 174 CAD cases and 174 sex/race-matched controls ("initial"), and 140 CAD cases and 140 controls ("replication"). To evaluate the capability of metabolites to predict cardiovascular events, cases were combined ("event" group); of these, 74 experienced death/myocardial infarction during follow-up. A third independent group was profiled ("event-replication" group; n=63 cases with cardiovascular events, 66 controls). Analysis included principal-components analysis, linear regression, and Cox proportional hazards. Two principal components analysis-derived factors were associated with CAD: 1 comprising branched-chain amino acid metabolites (factor 4, initial P=0.002, replication P=0.01), and 1 comprising urea cycle metabolites (factor 9, initial P=0.0004, replication P=0.01). In multivariable regression, these factors were independently associated with CAD in initial (factor 4, odds ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.74; P=0.02; factor 9, OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.87; P=0.003) and replication (factor 4, OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.91; P=0.02; factor 9, OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.91; P=0.01) groups. A factor composed of dicarboxylacylcarnitines predicted death/myocardial infarction (event group hazard ratio 2.17; 95% CI, 1.23 to 3.84; P=0.007) and was associated with cardiovascular events in the event-replication group (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.08 to 2.14; P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Metabolite profiles are associated with CAD and subsequent cardiovascular events.Item Open Access Association of anxiety and depression with all-cause mortality in individuals with coronary heart disease.(J Am Heart Assoc, 2013-03-19) Watkins, Lana L; Koch, Gary G; Sherwood, Andrew; Blumenthal, James A; Davidson, Jonathan RT; O'Connor, Christopher; Sketch, Michael HBACKGROUND: Depression has been related to mortality in coronary heart disease (CHD) patients, but few studies have evaluated the role of anxiety or the role of the co-occurrence of depression and anxiety. We examined whether anxiety is associated with increased risk of mortality after accounting for depression in individuals with established CHD. METHODS AND RESULTS: The cohort was composed of 934 men and women with confirmed CHD (mean age, 62±11 years) who completed the Hospital Anxiety and Depression scale (HADS) during hospitalization for coronary angiography. Over the 3-year follow-up period, there were 133 deaths. Elevated scores on the HADS anxiety subscale (HADS-A≥8) were associated with increased risk of mortality after accounting for established risk factors including age, congestive heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction, 3-vessel disease, and renal disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.27; 95% CI, 1.55 to 3.33; P<0.001). Elevated scores on the HADS depression subscale (HADS-D≥8) were also associated with increased risk of mortality (HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.47 to 3.22; P<0.001). When both psychosocial factors were included in the model, each maintained an association with mortality (anxiety, HR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.83; P=0.006; depression, HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.58; P=0.025). Estimation of the HR for patients with both anxiety and depression versus those with neither revealed a larger HR than for patients with either factor alone (HR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.95 to 4.94; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Anxiety is associated with increased risk of mortality in CHD patients, particularly when comorbid with depression. Future studies should focus on the co-occurrence of these psychosocial factors as markers of increased mortality risk.Item Open Access Blood pressure level impacts risk of death among HIV seropositive adults in Kenya: a retrospective analysis of electronic health records.(BMC Infect Dis, 2014-05-22) Bloomfield, Gerald S; Hogan, Joseph W; Keter, Alfred; Holland, Thomas L; Sang, Edwin; Kimaiyo, Sylvester; Velazquez, Eric JBACKGROUND: Mortality among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is increasingly due to non-communicable causes. This has been observed mostly in developed countries and the routine care of HIV infected individuals has now expanded to include attention to cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiovascular risk factors such as high blood pressure are often overlooked among HIV seropositive (+) individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to determine the effect of blood pressure on mortality among HIV+ adults in Kenya. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of electronic medical records of a large HIV treatment program in western Kenya between 2005 and 2010. All included individuals were HIV+. We excluded participants with AIDS, who were <16 or >80 years old, or had data out of acceptable ranges. Missing data for key covariates was addressed by inverse probability weighting. Primary outcome measures were crude mortality rate and mortality hazard ratio (HR) using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for potential confounders including HIV stage. RESULTS: There were 49,475 (74% women) HIV+ individuals who met inclusion and exclusion criteria. Mortality rates for men and women were 3.8 and 1.8/100 person-years, respectively, and highest among those with the lowest blood pressures. Low blood pressure was associated with the highest mortality incidence rate (IR) (systolic <100 mmHg IR 5.2 [4.8-5.7]; diastolic <60 mmHg IR 9.2 [8.3-10.2]). Mortality rate among men with high systolic blood pressure without advanced HIV (3.0, 95% CI: 1.6-5.5) was higher than men with normal systolic blood pressure (1.1, 95% CI: 0.7-1.7). In weighted proportional hazards regression models, men without advanced HIV disease and systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg carried a higher mortality risk than normotensive men (HR: 2.39, 95% CI: 0.94-6.08). CONCLUSIONS: Although there has been little attention paid to high blood pressure among HIV+ Africans, we show that blood pressure level among HIV+ patients in Kenya is related to mortality. Low blood pressure carries the highest mortality risk. High systolic blood pressure is associated with mortality among patients whose disease is not advanced. Further investigation is needed into the cause of death for such patients.Item Open Access Blood Pressure Response during Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing in Heart Failure.(Medicine and science in sports and exercise, 2018-07) Il'giovine, Zachary J; Solomon, Nicole; Devore, Adam D; Wojdyla, Daniel; Patel, Chetan B; Rogers, Joseph GIntroduction
The prognostic value of peak V˙O2 and V˙E/V˙CO2 slope measured during cardiopulmonary exercise (CPX) testing has been well established in patients with advanced heart failure, but blood pressure response to exercise is less well characterized.Methods
We retrospectively studied 151 outpatients who underwent CPX testing as part of an advanced heart failure evaluation. The outcome of interest was failure of medical management, defined by death, cardiac transplantation, or left ventricular assist device placement. Patients were stratified into tertiles by change in systolic blood pressure (SBP) (<13, 13-26, and ≥27 mm Hg) during exercise.Results
Patients in the lowest tertile had the lowest peak V˙O2 (10.2 vs 10.6 vs 13.6 mL·kg·min, P = <0.001), the highest V˙E/V˙CO2 slope (42.8 vs 42.1 vs 36.3, P = 0.030), the shortest mean exercise time (5.1 vs 6.0 vs 7.0 min, P = <0.001), and the highest probability of failure of medical management at 1.5 yr (0.69 vs 0.41 vs 0.34, P = 0.011). After multivariate adjustment, increased SBP <20 mm Hg during exercise was associated with a lower hazard of medical management failure (hazard ratio = 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.934-0.987), whereas SBP increases >20 mm Hg were associated with an increased hazard (hazard ratio = 1.046, 95% CI = 1.018-1.075).Conclusion
In conclusion, changes in SBP during CPX testing provide additional prognostic information above standard clinical variables. The peculiar increase in risk noted in those with a rise in SBP >20 mm Hg is less clear and needs to be investigated further.Item Open Access C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and cardiovascular disease prediction.(The New England journal of medicine, 2012-10) Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration; Kaptoge, Stephen; Di Angelantonio, Emanuele; Pennells, Lisa; Wood, Angela M; White, Ian R; Gao, Pei; Walker, Matthew; Thompson, Alexander; Sarwar, Nadeem; Caslake, Muriel; Butterworth, Adam S; Amouyel, Philippe; Assmann, Gerd; Bakker, Stephan JL; Barr, Elizabeth LM; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Benjamin, Emelia J; Björkelund, Cecilia; Brenner, Hermann; Brunner, Eric; Clarke, Robert; Cooper, Jackie A; Cremer, Peter; Cushman, Mary; Dagenais, Gilles R; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Dankner, Rachel; Davey-Smith, George; Deeg, Dorly; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Engström, Gunnar; Folsom, Aaron R; Fowkes, F Gerry R; Gallacher, John; Gaziano, J Michael; Giampaoli, Simona; Gillum, Richard F; Hofman, Albert; Howard, Barbara V; Ingelsson, Erik; Iso, Hiroyasu; Jørgensen, Torben; Kiechl, Stefan; Kitamura, Akihiko; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Koenig, Wolfgang; Kromhout, Daan; Kuller, Lewis H; Lawlor, Debbie A; Meade, Tom W; Nissinen, Aulikki; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Onat, Altan; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B; Psaty, Bruce M; Rodriguez, Beatriz; Rosengren, Annika; Salomaa, Veikko; Kauhanen, Jussi; Salonen, Jukka T; Shaffer, Jonathan A; Shea, Steven; Ford, Ian; Stehouwer, Coen DA; Strandberg, Timo E; Tipping, Robert W; Tosetto, Alberto; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Wennberg, Patrik; Westendorp, Rudi G; Whincup, Peter H; Wilhelmsen, Lars; Woodward, Mark; Lowe, Gordon DO; Wareham, Nicholas J; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Sattar, Naveed; Packard, Chris J; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Ridker, Paul M; Pepys, Mark B; Thompson, Simon G; Danesh, JohnThere is debate about the value of assessing levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other biomarkers of inflammation for the prediction of first cardiovascular events.We analyzed data from 52 prospective studies that included 246,669 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease to investigate the value of adding CRP or fibrinogen levels to conventional risk factors for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. We calculated measures of discrimination and reclassification during follow-up and modeled the clinical implications of initiation of statin therapy after the assessment of CRP or fibrinogen.The addition of information on high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to a prognostic model for cardiovascular disease that included age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol level increased the C-index, a measure of risk discrimination, by 0.0050. The further addition to this model of information on CRP or fibrinogen increased the C-index by 0.0039 and 0.0027, respectively (P<0.001), and yielded a net reclassification improvement of 1.52% and 0.83%, respectively, for the predicted 10-year risk categories of "low" (<10%), "intermediate" (10% to <20%), and "high" (≥20%) (P<0.02 for both comparisons). We estimated that among 100,000 adults 40 years of age or older, 15,025 persons would initially be classified as being at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event if conventional risk factors alone were used to calculate risk. Assuming that statin therapy would be initiated in accordance with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines (i.e., for persons with a predicted risk of ≥20% and for those with certain other risk factors, such as diabetes, irrespective of their 10-year predicted risk), additional targeted assessment of CRP or fibrinogen levels in the 13,199 remaining participants at intermediate risk could help prevent approximately 30 additional cardiovascular events over the course of 10 years.In a study of people without known cardiovascular disease, we estimated that under current treatment guidelines, assessment of the CRP or fibrinogen level in people at intermediate risk for a cardiovascular event could help prevent one additional event over a period of 10 years for every 400 to 500 people screened. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).Item Open Access Cardiovascular comorbidities and survival of lung cancer patients: Medicare data based analysis.(Lung Cancer, 2017-06-05) Kravchenko, Julia; Berry, Mark; Arbeev, Konstantin; Lyerly, H Kim; Yashin, Anatoly; Akushevich, IgorOBJECTIVES: To evaluate the role of cardiovascular disease (CVD) comorbidity in survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The impact of seven CVDs (at the time of NSCLC diagnosis and during subsequent follow-up) on overall survival was studied for NSCLC patients aged 65+ years using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data linked to the U.S. Medicare data, cancer stage- and treatment-specific. Cox regression was applied to evaluate death hazard ratios of CVDs in univariable and multivariable analyses (controlling by age, TNM statuses, and 78 non-CVD comorbidities) and to investigate the effects of 128 different combinations of CVDs on patients' survival. RESULTS: Overall, 95,167 patients with stage I (n=29,836, 31.4%), II (n=5133, 5.4%), IIIA (n=11,884, 12.5%), IIIB (n=18,020, 18.9%), and IV (n=30,294, 31.8%) NSCLC were selected. Most CVDs increased the risk of death for stages I-IIIB patients, but did not significantly impact survival of stage IV patients. The worse survival of patients was associated with comorbid heart failure, myocardial infarction, and cardiac arrhythmias that occurred during a period of follow-up: HRs up to 1.85 (p<0.001), 1.96 (p<0.05), and 1.67 (p<0.001), respectively, varying by stage and treatment. The presence of hyperlipidemia at baseline (HR down to 0.71, p<0.05) was associated with better prognosis. Having multiple co-existing CVDs significantly increased mortality for all treatments, especially for stages I and II patients treated with surgery (HRs up to 2.89, p<0.05) and stages I-IIIB patients treated with chemotherapy (HRs up to 2.59, p<0.001) and chemotherapy and radiotherapy (HRs up to 2.20, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: CVDs impact the survival of NSCLC patients, particularly when multiple co-existing CVDs are present; the impacts vary by stage and treatment. This data should be considered in improving cancer treatment selection process for such potentially challenging patients as the elderly NSCLC patients with CVD comorbidities.Item Open Access Carotid intima-media thickness progression and risk of vascular events in people with diabetes: results from the PROG-IMT collaboration.(Diabetes care, 2015-10) Lorenz, Matthias W; Price, Jackie F; Robertson, Christine; Bots, Michiel L; Polak, Joseph F; Poppert, Holger; Kavousi, Maryam; Dörr, Marcus; Stensland, Eva; Ducimetiere, Pierre; Ronkainen, Kimmo; Kiechl, Stefan; Sitzer, Matthias; Rundek, Tatjana; Lind, Lars; Liu, Jing; Bergström, Göran; Grigore, Liliana; Bokemark, Lena; Friera, Alfonsa; Yanez, David; Bickel, Horst; Ikram, M Arfan; Völzke, Henry; Johnsen, Stein Harald; Empana, Jean Philippe; Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka; Willeit, Peter; Steinmetz, Helmuth; Desvarieux, Moise; Xie, Wuxiang; Schmidt, Caroline; Norata, Giuseppe D; Suarez, Carmen; Sander, Dirk; Hofman, Albert; Schminke, Ulf; Mathiesen, Ellisiv; Plichart, Matthieu; Kauhanen, Jussi; Willeit, Johann; Sacco, Ralph L; McLachlan, Stela; Zhao, Dong; Fagerberg, Björn; Catapano, Alberico L; Gabriel, Rafael; Franco, Oscar H; Bülbül, Alpaslan; Scheckenbach, Frank; Pflug, Anja; Gao, Lu; Thompson, Simon GObjective
Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of subclinical organ damage and predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in the general population. It has also been associated with vascular risk in people with diabetes. However, the association of CIMT change in repeated examinations with subsequent CVD events is uncertain, and its use as a surrogate end point in clinical trials is controversial. We aimed at determining the relation of CIMT change to CVD events in people with diabetes.Research design and methods
In a comprehensive meta-analysis of individual participant data, we collated data from 3,902 adults (age 33-92 years) with type 2 diabetes from 21 population-based cohorts. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD) difference in mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) or in CCA-IMT progression, both calculated from two examinations on average 3.6 years apart, for each cohort, and combined the estimates with random-effects meta-analysis.Results
Average mean CCA-IMT ranged from 0.72 to 0.97 mm across cohorts in people with diabetes. The HR of CVD events was 1.22 (95% CI 1.12-1.33) per SD difference in mean CCA-IMT, after adjustment for age, sex, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Average mean CCA-IMT progression in people with diabetes ranged between -0.09 and 0.04 mm/year. The HR per SD difference in mean CCA-IMT progression was 0.99 (0.91-1.08).Conclusions
Despite reproducing the association between CIMT level and vascular risk in subjects with diabetes, we did not find an association between CIMT change and vascular risk. These results do not support the use of CIMT progression as a surrogate end point in clinical trials in people with diabetes.Item Open Access Compliance with results reporting at ClinicalTrials.gov.(N Engl J Med, 2015-03-12) Anderson, Monique L; Chiswell, Karen; Peterson, Eric D; Tasneem, Asba; Topping, James; Califf, Robert MBACKGROUND: The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) mandates timely reporting of results of applicable clinical trials to ClinicalTrials.gov. We characterized the proportion of applicable clinical trials with publicly available results and determined independent factors associated with the reporting of results. METHODS: Using an algorithm based on input from the National Library of Medicine, we identified trials that were likely to be subject to FDAAA provisions (highly likely applicable clinical trials, or HLACTs) from 2008 through 2013. We determined the proportion of HLACTs that reported results within the 12-month interval mandated by the FDAAA or at any time during the 5-year study period. We used regression models to examine characteristics associated with reporting at 12 months and throughout the 5-year study period. RESULTS: From all the trials at ClinicalTrials.gov, we identified 13,327 HLACTs that were terminated or completed from January 1, 2008, through August 31, 2012. Of these trials, 77.4% were classified as drug trials. A total of 36.9% of the trials were phase 2 studies, and 23.4% were phase 3 studies; 65.6% were funded by industry. Only 13.4% of trials reported summary results within 12 months after trial completion, whereas 38.3% reported results at any time up to September 27, 2013. Timely reporting was independently associated with factors such as FDA oversight, a later trial phase, and industry funding. A sample review suggested that 45% of industry-funded trials were not required to report results, as compared with 6% of trials funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and 9% of trials that were funded by other government or academic institutions. CONCLUSIONS: Despite ethical and legal obligations to disclose findings promptly, most HLACTs did not report results to ClinicalTrials.gov in a timely fashion during the study period. Industry-funded trials adhered to legal obligations more often than did trials funded by the NIH or other government or academic institutions. (Funded by the Clinical Trials Transformation Initiative and the NIH.).Item Open Access Daily intake of antioxidants in relation to survival among adult patients diagnosed with malignant glioma.(BMC Cancer, 2010-05-19) DeLorenze, Gerald N; McCoy, Lucie; Tsai, Ai-Lin; Quesenberry, Charles P; Rice, Terri; Il'yasova, Dora; Wrensch, MargaretBACKGROUND: Malignant glioma is a rare cancer with poor survival. The influence of diet and antioxidant intake on glioma survival is not well understood. The current study examines the association between antioxidant intake and survival after glioma diagnosis. METHODS: Adult patients diagnosed with malignant glioma during 1991-1994 and 1997-2001 were enrolled in a population-based study. Diagnosis was confirmed by review of pathology specimens. A modified food-frequency questionnaire interview was completed by each glioma patient or a designated proxy. Intake of each food item was converted to grams consumed/day. From this nutrient database, 16 antioxidants, calcium, a total antioxidant index and 3 macronutrients were available for survival analysis. Cox regression estimated mortality hazard ratios associated with each nutrient and the antioxidant index adjusting for potential confounders. Nutrient values were categorized into tertiles. Models were stratified by histology (Grades II, III, and IV) and conducted for all (including proxy) subjects and for a subset of self-reported subjects. RESULTS: Geometric mean values for 11 fat-soluble and 6 water-soluble individual antioxidants, antioxidant index and 3 macronutrients were virtually the same when comparing all cases (n=748) to self-reported cases only (n=450). For patients diagnosed with Grade II and Grade III histology, moderate (915.8-2118.3 mcg) intake of fat-soluble lycopene was associated with poorer survival when compared to low intake (0.0-914.8 mcg), for self-reported cases only. High intake of vitamin E and moderate/high intake of secoisolariciresinol among Grade III patients indicated greater survival for all cases. In Grade IV patients, moderate/high intake of cryptoxanthin and high intake of secoisolariciresinol were associated with poorer survival among all cases. Among Grade II patients, moderate intake of water-soluble folate was associated with greater survival for all cases; high intake of vitamin C and genistein and the highest level of the antioxidant index were associated with poorer survival for all cases. CONCLUSIONS: The associations observed in our study suggest that the influence of some antioxidants on survival following a diagnosis of malignant glioma are inconsistent and vary by histology group. Further research in a large sample of glioma patients is needed to confirm/refute our results.Item Open Access Delays in appropriate antibiotic therapy for gram-negative bloodstream infections: a multicenter, community hospital study.(PLoS One, 2013) Moehring, Rebekah W; Sloane, Richard; Chen, Luke F; Smathers, Emily C; Schmader, Kenneth E; Fowler, Vance G; Weber, David J; Sexton, Daniel J; Anderson, Deverick JBACKGROUND: Gram-negative bacterial bloodstream infection (BSI) is a serious condition with estimated 30% mortality. Clinical outcomes for patients with severe infections improve when antibiotics are appropriately chosen and given early. The objective of this study was to estimate the association of prior healthcare exposure on time to appropriate antibiotic therapy in patients with gram-negative BSI. METHOD: We performed a multicenter cohort study of adult, hospitalized patients with gram-negative BSI using time to event analysis in nine community hospitals from 2003-2006. Event time was defined as the first administration of an antibiotic with in vitro activity against the infecting organism. Healthcare exposure status was categorized as community-acquired, healthcare-associated, or hospital-acquired. Time to appropriate therapy among groups of patients with differing healthcare exposure status was assessed using Kaplan-Meier analyses and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The cohort included 578 patients with gram-negative BSI, including 320 (55%) healthcare-associated, 217 (38%) community-acquired, and 41 (7%) hospital-acquired infections. 529 (92%) patients received an appropriate antibiotic during their hospitalization. Time to appropriate therapy was significantly different among the groups of healthcare exposure status (log-rank p=0.02). Time to first antibiotic administration regardless of drug appropriateness was not different between groups (p=0.3). The unadjusted hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval) were 0.80 (0.65-0.98) for healthcare-associated and 0.72 (0.63-0.82) for hospital-acquired, relative to patients with community-acquired BSI. In multivariable analysis, interaction was found between the main effect and baseline Charlson comorbidity index. When Charlson index was 3, adjusted HRs were 0.66 (0.48-0.92) for healthcare-associated and 0.57 (0.44-0.75) for hospital-acquired, relative to patients with community-acquired infections. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with healthcare-associated or hospital-acquired BSI experienced delays in receipt of appropriate antibiotics for gram-negative BSI compared to patients with community-acquired BSI. This difference was not due to delayed initiation of antibiotic therapy, but due to the inappropriate choice of antibiotic.Item Open Access Depressive Symptoms and Incident Heart Failure in the Jackson Heart Study: Differential Risk Among Black Men and Women.(Journal of the American Heart Association, 2022-03) Gaffey, Allison E; Cavanagh, Casey E; Rosman, Lindsey; Wang, Kaicheng; Deng, Yanhong; Sims, Mario; O'Brien, Emily C; Chamberlain, Alanna M; Mentz, Robert J; Glover, LáShauntá M; Glover, LáShauntá M; Burg, Matthew MBackground Associations between depression, incident heart failure (HF), and mortality are well documented in predominately White samples. Yet, there are sparse data from racial minorities, including those who are women, and depression is underrecognized and undertreated in the Black population. Thus, we examined associations between baseline depressive symptoms, incident HF, and all-cause mortality across 10 years. Methods and Results We included Jackson Heart Study (JHS) participants with no history of HF at baseline (n=2651; 63.9% women; median age, 53 years). Cox proportional hazards models tested if the risk of incident HF or mortality differed by clinically significant depressive symptoms at baseline (Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression scores ≥16 versus <16). Models were conducted in the full sample and by sex, with hierarchical adjustment for demographics, HF risk factors, and lifestyle factors. Overall, 538 adults (20.3%) reported high depressive symptoms (71.0% were women), and there were 181 cases of HF (cumulative incidence, 0.06%). In the unadjusted model, individuals with high depressive symptoms had a 43% greater risk of HF (P=0.035). The association remained with demographic and HF risk factors but was attenuated by lifestyle factors. All-cause mortality was similar regardless of depressive symptoms. By sex, the unadjusted association between depressive symptoms and HF remained for women only (P=0.039). The fully adjusted model showed a 53% greater risk of HF for women with high depressive symptoms (P=0.043). Conclusions Among Black adults, there were sex-specific associations between depressive symptoms and incident HF, with greater risk among women. Sex-specific management of depression may be needed to improve cardiovascular outcomes.Item Open Access Early 18F-FDG-PET Response During Radiation Therapy for HPV-Related Oropharyngeal Cancer May Predict Disease Recurrence.(International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics, 2020-11) Mowery, Yvonne M; Vergalasova, Irina; Rushing, Christel N; Choudhury, Kingshuk Roy; Niedzwiecki, Donna; Wu, Qiuwen; Yoo, David S; Das, Shiva; Wong, Terence Z; Brizel, David MPurpose
Early indication of treatment outcome may guide therapeutic de-escalation strategies in patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). This study investigated the relationships between tumor volume and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) parameters before and during definitive radiation therapy with treatment outcomes.Methods and materials
Patients undergoing definitive (chemo)radiation for HPV-related/p16-positive OPC were prospectively enrolled on an institutional review board-approved study. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET/computed tomography scans were performed at simulation and after 2 weeks at a dose of ∼20 Gy. Tumor volume and standardized uptake value (SUV) characteristics were measured. SUV was normalized to blood pool uptake. Tumor volume and PET parameters associated with recurrence were identified through recursive partitioning (RPART). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) curves between RPART-identified cohorts were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs).Results
From 2012 to 2016, 62 patients with HPV-related OPC were enrolled. Median follow-up was 4.4 years. RPART identified patients with intratreatment SUVmax (normalized to blood pool SUVmean) <6.7 or SUVmax (normalized to blood pool SUVmean) ≥6.7 with intratreatment SUV40% ≥2.75 as less likely to recur. For identified subgroups, results of Cox models showed unadjusted HRs for RFS and OS (more likely to recur vs less likely) of 7.33 (90% confidence interval [CI], 2.97-18.12) and 6.09 (90% CI, 2.22-16.71), respectively, and adjusted HRs of 6.57 (90% CI, 2.53-17.05) and 5.61 (90% CI, 1.90-16.54) for RFS and OS, respectively.Conclusions
PET parameters after 2 weeks of definitive radiation therapy for HPV-related OPC are associated with RFS and OS, thus potentially informing an adaptive treatment approach.Item Open Access Early adoption of dabigatran and its dosing in US patients with atrial fibrillation: results from the outcomes registry for better informed treatment of atrial fibrillation.(J Am Heart Assoc, 2013-11-25) Steinberg, Benjamin A; Holmes, Dajuanicia N; Piccini, Jonathan P; Ansell, Jack; Chang, Paul; Fonarow, Gregg C; Gersh, Bernard; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Kowey, Peter R; Ezekowitz, Michael D; Singer, Daniel E; Thomas, Laine; Peterson, Eric D; Hylek, Elaine M; Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF) Investigators and PatientsBACKGROUND: Dabigatran is a novel oral anticoagulant approved for thromboprophylaxis in atrial fibrillation. Adoption patterns of this new agent in community practice are unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied patterns of dabigatran use among patients enrolled in the Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF) Registry between June 2010 and August 2011 and followed for 12 months. Among 9974 atrial fibrillation patients included, 1217 (12%) were treated with dabigatran during the study. Overall, patients receiving dabigatran were younger (median age 72 versus 75 years, P<0.0001), more likely to be white (92% versus 89%, P=0.005), more likely to have private insurance (33% versus 25%, P<0.0001), and less likely to have prior cardiovascular disease (4% versus 33%, P<0.0001). They had more new-onset atrial fibrillation (8.8% versus 4.1%, P<0.0001), lower CHADS2 scores (estimated risk based on the presence of congestive heart failure, hypertension, aged ≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, and prior stroke or transient ischemic attack; mean 2.0 versus 2.3, P<0.0001), and lower Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation scores (mean 2.4 versus 2.8, P<0.0001). More than half (n=14/25, 56%) of patients with severe kidney disease were not prescribed reduced dosing, whereas 10% (n=91/920) with preserved renal function received lower dosing. Among patients not on dabigatran at baseline, 8% had dabigatran initiated during follow-up. Patient education was significantly associated with switching from warfarin to dabigatran (adjusted odds ratio for postgraduate 1.73, P=0.007), whereas antiarrhythmic drug use significantly correlated with de novo adoption of dabigatran (adjusted odds ratio 2.4, P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients receiving dabigatran were younger and at a lower risk of stroke and bleeding. Patients appeared to drive switching from warfarin, whereas clinical characteristics influenced de novo start of dabigatran. These data suggest cautious early uptake of dabigatran, and more careful attention to dosing adjustments is warranted. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: Clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01165710.Item Open Access Effect of socioeconomic status as measured by education level on survival in breast cancer clinical trials.(Psychooncology, 2013-02) Herndon, James E; Kornblith, Alice B; Holland, Jimmie C; Paskett, Electra DOBJECTIVES: This paper aims to investigate the effect of socioeconomic status, as measured by education, on the survival of breast cancer patients treated on 10 studies conducted by the Cancer and Leukemia Group B. METHODS: Sociodemographic data, including education, were reported by the patient at trial enrollment. Cox proportional hazards model stratified by treatment arm/study was used to examine the effect of education on survival among patients with early stage and metastatic breast cancer, after adjustment for known prognostic factors. RESULTS: The patient population included 1020 patients with metastatic disease and 5146 patients with early stage disease. Among metastatic patients, factors associated with poorer survival in the final multivariable model included African American race, never married, negative estrogen receptor status, prior hormonal therapy, visceral involvement, and bone involvement. Among early stage patients, significant factors associated with poorer survival included African American race, separated/widowed, post/perimenopausal, negative/unknown estrogen receptor status, negative progesterone receptor status, >4 positive nodes, tumor diameter >2 cm, and education. Having not completed high school was associated with poorer survival among early stage patients. Among metastatic patients, non-African American women who lacked a high school degree had poorer survival than other non-African American women, and African American women who lacked a high school education had better survival than educated African American women. CONCLUSIONS: Having less than a high school education is a risk factor for death among patients with early stage breast cancer who participated in a clinical trial, with its impact among metastatic patients being less clear. Post-trial survivorship plans need to focus on women with low social status, as measured by education.Item Open Access Effects of FOXO genotypes on longevity: a biodemographic analysis.(J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci, 2010-12) Zeng, Y; Cheng, L; Chen, H; Cao, H; Hauser, ER; Liu, Y; Xiao, Z; Tan, Q; Tian, XL; Vaupel, JWBased on data from 760 centenarians and 1060 middle-age controls (all Han Chinese), this article contributes biodemographic insights and syntheses concerning the magnitude of effects of the FOXO genotypes on longevity. We also estimate independent and joint effects of the genotypes of FOXO1A and FOXO3A genes on long-term survival, considering carrying or not-carrying the minor allele of the single-nucleotide polymorphism of another relevant gene. We found substantial gender differences in the independent effects; positive effects of FOXO3A and negative effects of FOXO1A largely compensate each other if one carries both, although FOXO3A has a stronger impact. Ten-year follow-up cohort analysis shows that at very advanced ages 92-110, adjusted for various confounders, positive effects of FOXO3A on survival remain statistically significant, but no significant effects of FOXO1A alone; G × G interactions between FOXO1A-209 and FOXO3A-310 or FOXO3A-292 decrease survival likelihood by 32%-36% (p < .05); G × E interactions between FOXO1A-209 and regular exercise increase survival likelihood by 31%-32% (p < .05).