Browsing by Subject "Tropics"

Global climate change can cause shifts in species distributions, and increases in some of their competitors, predators, and diseases that might even cause their extinction. Species may respond to a warming climate by moving to higher latitudes or elevations. Shifts in geographic ranges are common responses in temperate regions. For the tropics, latitudinal temperature gradients are shallow: the only escape for species may be to move to higher elevations. There are few data to suggest that they do, and our understanding of the process is still very limited. Yet, the greatest loss of species from climate disruption may be for tropical montane species. To better understand the potential process of elevational range shifts in the tropics and their implications we have to: 1) Build theoretical models for the process of range shifting, 2) Evaluate potential constraints that species could face while moving to higher elevations, 3) Obtain empirical evidence confirming the uphill shift of species ranges, 4) Determine the number of extinctions that could arise from elevational range shifts (mountain top extinctions) and 5) Identify vulnerable species and areas, and determine their representation by the Protected Areas Network. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these issues, by applying novel methods and collecting empirical evidence.

In the second chapter I incorporated temperature gradients and land-cover data from the current ranges of species in a model of range shifts in response to climate change. I tested 4 possible scenarios of amphibian movement on a tropical mountain and estimated the constraints to range shifts imposed by each scenario. Confirming the occurrence of elevational range shifts with empirical data is also essential, but requires historical data as a baseline for comparison. I repeated a historical transect in Peru, sampling birds at the same locations they were sampled 40 years ago, and compared their elevational ranges between sampling occasions to evaluate if they were moving uphill as a response to warming temperatures. Finally, based on the results from this comparison, I estimated the potential extinctions derived from elevational range shifts, using information on the species distribution, the topography and land cover within the ranges and surrounding areas. I evaluated the extent of mountain top extinctions for 172 bird species with restricted ranges in the northern Andes. I also considered how Colombia's protected Area Network represents species and sites that are vulnerable in the face of climate change.

More than 30% of the range of 21 of 46 amphibian species in the tropical Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta is likely to become isolated as climate changes. More than 30% of the range of 13 amphibian species would shift to areas that currently are unlikely to sustain survival and reproduction. Combined, over 70% of the current range of 7 species would become thermally isolated or shift to areas that currently are unlikely to support survival and reproduction. The constraints on species' movements to higher elevations in response to climate change can increase considerably the number of species threatened by climate change in tropical mountains.

In the comparison of bird distributions in the Cerrros del Sira, in Peru, I found an average upward shift of 49 m for 55 bird species over a 41 year interval. This shift is significantly upward, but also significantly smaller than the 152 m one expects from warming in the region. The range shifts in elevation were similar across different trophic guilds. Endothermy may provide birds with some flexibility to temperature changes and allow them to move less than expected. Instead of being directly dependent on temperature, birds may be responding to gradual changes in the nature of the habitat or availability of food resources, and presence of competitors. If so, this has important implications for estimates of mountaintop extinctions from climate change.

The estimated number of mountain top extinctions from climate disruption in the northern Andes is low, both the absolute number (5 species) and the relative number (less than 0.5% of Colombian land birds). According to future climate predictions these extinctions will not likely occur in this century. The extent of species loss in the Andes is not predicted by absolute mountaintop extinctions modeled by the kind of processes most other studies use. Rather, it is highly contingent -- the species will survive or not depending on how well we protect their much reduced ranges from the variety of other threats.

Human activity has resulted in significant increases in air temperature over the last century, and air temperatures are expected to continue rising at an accelerating rate over the next 100 years (IPCC 2007). The warming that has already occurred has had significant impacts on the worlds biota: species ranges are shifting north (or upslope), seasonal phenological events are occurring earlier, disease dynamics are changing, and populations are going extinct (Walther et al. 2002; Parmesan & Yohe 2003; Parmesan 2006; Walther 2010; Pau et al. 2011). Understanding the temperature-dependent biological mechanisms that lead to such changes is a major priority: only with such understanding can we hope to make a concerted effort to mitigate the effects of continuing climatic change.

There are three general biological mechanisms by which organisms can respond to, and potentially buffer themselves from, the direct effects of climate change: 1) physiological plasticity, 2) behavior, and 3) evolution. Here, I refer to physiological plasticity as changes in thermal reaction norms, which include sensitivity to thermal change and tolerance for thermal extremes (Huey & Stevenson 1979). These plastic responses can be reversible (acclimation) or be fixed by developmental or cross-generational non-genetic processes (West-Eberhard 2003; Ghalambor et al. 2007; Angilletta 2009). There appear to be global patterns of plasticity in thermal physiology, as temperate ectotherms tend to be more plastic than tropical ectotherms (Feder 1978; Tsuji 1988; Ghalambor et al. 2006). This difference is hypothesized to result from differences in seasonality: temperate ectotherms can experience a much wider range of thermal conditions than tropical ectotherms, and thus temperate environment might select for plasticity to track changing conditions. If physiological plasticity can buffer organisms from warming (Stillman 2003; Somero 2010), then tropical ectotherms may be at a disadvantage in the face of climate change (Huey et al. 2009).

In general, behavioral responses to thermal challenges can be thought of as occurring on either local or regional scales. At the local scale ectotherms can engage in behavioral thermoregulation, seeking out thermally suitable microhabitats within their home ranges (Bogert 1949; Huey et al. 2003; Kearney et al. 2009). At the regional scale, organisms may shift their ranges by migrating along elevation or latitudinal thermal gradients (usually up or north, respectively) to escape warming (Buckley et al. 2013). The degree to which local- and regional-scale behavioral responses can buffer populations from warming depends on numerous factors. For example, behavioral thermoregulation requires fine-scale thermal variation within the environment. However, habitats such as heavily shaded tropical forests have little thermal heterogeneity, precluding behavioral thermoregulation as an effective buffering mechanism (Huey et al. 2009). On the other hand, range shifts can be hindered by factors such as inherent mobility and natural and man-made barriers (Forero‐Medina et al. 2011). Both behavioral thermoregulation and migration can be hindered by the presence of competitors or antagonistic species such as predators or parasites in thermally favorable locations (Araújo & Luoto 2007).

Most work on the evolution of thermal physiology focuses on the evolution of thermal tolerance limits (i.e., the lower and upper lethal temperature thresholds) (Stillman & Somero 2000; Angilletta et al. 2007; Barrett et al. 2011). Broad-scale comparative analyses have demonstrated that upper thermal limits vary less than lower thermal limits, suggesting that upper thermal limits may be evolutionarily constrained (Kellermann et al. 2012; Araújo et al. 2013; Grigg & Buckley 2013). This pattern is particularly strong looking over terrestrial latitudinal gradients; cold tolerance increases with latitude, but heat tolerance does not change appreciably (Sunday et al. 2012). Artificial selection experiments have demonstrated that the upper thermal tolerances of animals can evolve, but there may be limits to how much they can change (Huey et al. 1991; Loeschcke & Krebs 1996).

Physiology, behavior, and evolution are of course not mutually exclusive mechanisms. As noted above, physiological traits such as tolerance to extreme temperature can evolve, as can behavioral mechanisms. In addition, behavior may promote or inhibit the evolution of physiology. For example, behavioral thermoregulation can potentially inhibit the evolution of thermal physiology because it allows organisms to buffer themselves from thermal change (Huey et al. 2003). Furthermore, the physiological state of an organism can dictate how it behaviorally responds to a given stimulus (Atkins-Regan 2005). For example, lizards that are dehydrated seek out cooler microclimates (Crowley 1987).

My dissertation focuses on the physiological, behavioral, and evolutionary axes of organismal response to climatic challenges, and their interactions, using the arboreal Caribbean lizard Anolis cristatellus as a model system. The general approach that I take throughout each chapter is to consider climatic data and organismal responses to climate at a fine-scale. A recent review and meta-analysis of climate change studies found that, on average, researchers consider climatic data at a scale 10,000X larger then the animals they study (Potter et al. 2013). In other words, we frequently consider the climatic environment very coarsely relative to our focal organisms. Such an approach can yield broad patterns of warming vulnerability over large geographic scales. Nonetheless, much of the climatic variation important to organisms occurs at the scale of meters rather than kilometers (Helmuth et al. 2010). Similarly, broad-scale studies must typically make assumptions about how organisms respond to climatic variation, rather than actually measuring responses. Throughout, I highlight the benefits of working at the scale of the organism.

Chapter 1 is the only chapter that does not deal directly with thermal biology. In it, I investigate whether or not A. cristatellus from mesic and xeric habitats differ in their water loss rates, and ask whether the differences that I observe can be explained by plasticity (Gunderson et al. 2011). In the second chapter, I explore the vulnerability of A. cristatellus to climate warming by integrating behavior and physiology with fine-scale measurements of the thermal environment (Gunderson & Leal 2012). In the third chapter, I investigate the ability of thermal tolerance limits to evolve rapidly in response to climatic change using the recent introduction of A. cristatellus to Miami from Puerto Rico (Leal & Gunderson 2012). In the final chapter, I focus solely on behavior and use A. cristatellus to ask how well current models of thermal constraint on activity predict observed patterns at a fine scale in the field (Gunderson and Leal, in review).

Road accidents are the leading cause of death within the 15-29 years age range worldwide and the risk of death for motorcyclists is 20 times that of car occupants. As such, 31% of over 10,250 annual road traffic deaths in Uganda are due to either 2 or 3-wheeler motorists’ accidents. Another study in Uganda revealed that 71% of its motorcycle crash victims sustained a head injury while more research shows that helmets can reduce risk of death by 37% and risk of head injury by 69% in the event of a crash. Unfortunately, helmet-use compliance is 30.8% and 1% compliance for riders and passengers respectively in Uganda. Market research by Design without Borders and the Uganda Helmet Vaccine Initiative, attributes this low helmet-use to discomfort, poor helmet ventilation and the prohibitive price of the helmets. A large part of the prohibitive helmet price is due to onerous performance requirements which drive up the development and manufacturing costs. One such requirement is ensuring the helmet's optimal performance in temperatures as low as -20o Celsius which are atypical in tropical climate regions. Another is that the helmet withstands multiple identical impacts at exactly the same location which is extremely rare in a crash. This Masters research is concerned with investigating the effect of continuity and thickness of motorcycle helmet shells on performance. Helmeted head impacts were simulated at three impact points using two different impact surfaces while varying shell thicknesses and continuity using LS DYNA, a Finite Element Analysis software. Increase in shell thickness reduced motorcycle helmet performance while splitting the shell in halves did not significantly affect motorcycle helmet performance. Insights from this research will inform and guide the engineering design of affordable market approved, better ventilated motorcycle helmets under 10 USD that will be suited for the Tropics.