Browsing by Subject "Vulnerability assessment"

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    A Climate and Operational Vulnerability Assessment of the Water Company in Salamanca, Chile
    (2017-04-28) Gochicoa, Pedro I.; Eastman, Lucas B.
    The present master’s project is an analysis of the future vulnerability of the water company (Aguas del Valle) in Salamanca, Chile to potential changes in population, per capita water use, leakage, and climate. Scenario modelling and sensitivity analyses were carried out in Excel and Stella. We find that under a business as usual scenario, the water company will reach maximum production capacity according to its current water rights in the year 2030. In the most pessimistic scenario, the company will reach maximum capacity in year 2025 and need to produce nearly 13 million m3 in 2050, while in the most optimistic scenario, it will not reach maximum capacity before the year 2050, and will only need to produce 510,000 m3 yearly. A detailed sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was the principal driver of water production for the future of the water company. A Monte Carlo analysis showed that there is a 60% probability that production will be 3.4 million m3 or less in year 2050. We recommend that the company reduce leakage, which has averaged 34% over the past 10 years. We also recommend that the company invest in demand management as well as an increase in storage of the system from the 9 hours of current consumptive volume to at least 24 hours of emergency storage.
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    Application of a Novel Climate Adaptation Tool for Prioritization of Historic Structures in Coastal National Parks
    (2024-04-26) Craddock, Everett
    Climate change poses a threat to future resource management in National Parks. For coastal parks, cultural resources such as historic structures are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change-related threats such as sea level rise and hurricane storm surge. In the summer of 2023, a novel tool was created at Cape Hatteras National Seashore to provide a simple methodology for prioritizing historic structures for climate adaptation based on physical vulnerability and historic significance metrics. The goal of this Master's Project is to assess the transferability of the novel climate change adaptation prioritization tool and compare the outputs of this tool to the most common climate change vulnerability assessment protocol used in coastal National Parks. The novel tool transferability assessment was conducted by applying the tool to historic structures in Cape Cod National Seashore and concluded that the current iteration of the tool requires modification for application in other parks due to inconsistencies of data applicability and availability and challenges in interpretation of the tool outputs. The comparison between the novel tool and the vulnerability assessment protocol revealed significant disparities between the assessment methodology and recommendations produced, and analysis of the outputs from both tools revealed substantial added value from significance metrics in the novel tool. Lessons learned from this analysis were used to produce recommendations for the National Park Service in development of climate change adaptation guidelines.
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    Were the Post-Sandy Staten Island Buyouts Successful in Reducing National Vulnerability?
    (2017-04-28) McGhee, Devon
    An increasingly common post-disaster mitigation approach, home buyout programs are generally intended to reduce vulnerability to future disasters. However, to date, there has been no quantitative evaluation of whether or not coastal buyout programs are successful in reducing vulnerability. Through a change in vulnerability analysis, this study quantifies the success of the Staten Island buyout program in reducing the nationwide vulnerability of people and property to coastal flood hazards. Results show an increase in overall vulnerability, which includes exposure and social vulnerability, for 99% of the buyout participants studied. Buyout participants tend to relocate within five miles of their origin addresses, move to areas with higher levels of poverty, higher population density and greater percentages of individuals over 65. This analysis concludes that significant uncertainty remains with respect to whether or not the Staten Island buyout program met its objective of reducing the vulnerability of people and property to coastal flood hazards.