Browsing by Subject "Water resources"
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Item Open Access A Climate and Operational Vulnerability Assessment of the Water Company in Salamanca, Chile(2017-04-28) Gochicoa, Pedro I.; Eastman, Lucas B.The present master’s project is an analysis of the future vulnerability of the water company (Aguas del Valle) in Salamanca, Chile to potential changes in population, per capita water use, leakage, and climate. Scenario modelling and sensitivity analyses were carried out in Excel and Stella. We find that under a business as usual scenario, the water company will reach maximum production capacity according to its current water rights in the year 2030. In the most pessimistic scenario, the company will reach maximum capacity in year 2025 and need to produce nearly 13 million m3 in 2050, while in the most optimistic scenario, it will not reach maximum capacity before the year 2050, and will only need to produce 510,000 m3 yearly. A detailed sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was the principal driver of water production for the future of the water company. A Monte Carlo analysis showed that there is a 60% probability that production will be 3.4 million m3 or less in year 2050. We recommend that the company reduce leakage, which has averaged 34% over the past 10 years. We also recommend that the company invest in demand management as well as an increase in storage of the system from the 9 hours of current consumptive volume to at least 24 hours of emergency storage.Item Open Access Changing Waters: Trends in Central Appalachian Streamflow in the Presence of Mountaintop Mining(2016-04-29) Knowlton, MeaganMountaintop mining (MTM) became popular in the 1970s in Central Appalachia and today remains the dominant form of coal mining in the region (Ross et al., 2016). Approximately 6-7% of the Appalachian Coalfield Region in West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee is covered by mountaintop mining operations (Lindberg et. al, 2011). MTM involves stripping mountain surfaces by up to 300 vertical meters of rock material (“overburden”) to gain access to thin coal seams (Lindberg et al., 2011; Palmer et al., 2010). The overburden is then deposited in adjacent valleys as so-called “valley fills,” often burying headwater streams that originate in the mountains. These valley fills increase a watershed’s storage potential to an unknown degree. Hydrologic processes play significant roles in species habitats, aquatic chemistry and ecology, and overall aquatic ecosystem health (e.g., Miller & Zégre, 2014). The impacts of human activities and climate variability may cause hydrologic regimes to change, threatening the processes by which streams support ecosystem and human health. MTM research, especially in Central Appalachia, has largely focused on the effects of MTM on water chemistry and aquatic ecosystem health (Bernhardt et al., 2012; Palmer et al., 2010; Bernhardt & Palmer, 2011; Lindberg et al., 2011). This study contributes a regional-scale examination of hydrologic alterations in the presence of changing climate and land cover conditions to the field of hydrology. One of the possible effects of topographic change from MTMVF could be a change in flow duration curves. I expected to see increases in low flows due to increased storage in the new MTM systems; during a storm, the valley fills likely increase the storage potential of the area. Furthermore, I hypothesized that any possible effect of MTM on hydrology will increase with an increase in the watershed area affected by MTM. For this study I performed both time series analysis on precipitation and streamflow data as well as spatial analysis of MTM extent. First, I compiled streamflow and precipitation data from twelve watersheds in West Virginia and tested for trends in hydrologic and precipitation indices for the full periods of record. Second, I compared the trends in the post-mining time period (post-1976) with the pre-mining record, to test for trends in streamflow related to MTM. Third, I used four snapshots over time of MTM coverage data to characterize each study watershed by the percent land area covered by MTM, and compared these coverages with the magnitude of hydrologic trends, where trends existed. Comparing streamflow and precipitation totals between pre- and post-mining time blocks produced a few significant results, indicating that only two of the watersheds violated the assumption of stationarity from pre- to post-mining. I found some significant trends when considering metrics other than annual totals of daily-resolution data; minima and runoff ratios demonstrated some presence of trend in some watersheds, though not across all watersheds. Minima were more sensitive to time series analysis than annual totals. Sites 10 and 6 had the highest and third-highest amount of MTM, respectively (Table 2), and both had increasing minima over all years of data. The trends in minima in these watersheds could be associated with the high amounts of MTM. Increasing minima support the hypothesis that MTM increases the amount of storage in the landscape and provides more steady inputs of baseflow from storage sources. Site 10 demonstrates some of the characteristics expected of a watered affected by MTMVF. The late summer streamflow, or the low flows, appear to be increasing at Site 10. Runoff ratios overall had more significant results than the other streamflow metrics. Runoff ratio provides information as to whether the relationship between streamflow and precipitation is changing. Based on runoff ratios in summer and winter months, I assessed whether trends were detectable in high flow and low flow periods. The only watershed with a detectable upward trend in annual summer runoff ratios over time was Site 10. These above results indicate that baseflow in the streams of the Sites 6 and 10 watersheds may be increasing over time. Based on the results of this study, I conclude that some aspects of regional streamflow regimes do not meet the assumption of stationarity in the face of MTM; the characteristics where trends are most detectable include streamflow minima and seasonal runoff ratios. Future research could increase the scale of hydrologic regime analysis to more watersheds throughout the coalfield region. Studies of this nature can support informed decision making and understanding of the trade-offs between the benefits of altering land cover for economic growth and the possible negative impacts of environmental degradation (Defries & Eshleman, 2004). Policy decisions regarding MTM will need to evaluate scientific data on the impacts of MTM in order to make the best choices to protect human, wildlife, and economic health.Item Open Access Demand Management Strategies of North Carolina Public Water Systems(2008-04-22T19:18:30Z) Childs, RushThe traditional approach to water resources management in the Southeastern United States does not take full advantage of economic tools for managing scarcity. It fails to prevent economically inefficient uses of water, imposes additional costs to downstream users, and degrades the natural environment. The recent drought in the Southeastern United States reveals these shortcomings and indicates that water supply planners should be aware of the role of demand management in reducing waste and misallocation during times of water stress. This analysis draws on data from the State of North Carolina’s Local Water Supply Plan Database. In the absence of statewide standards for technical and economic efficiency, it examines the decision of public water systems to voluntarily adopt demand management practices. An empirical model of water use is then estimated to determine the effectiveness of current demand management strategies, as employed by North Carolina public water systems. Results of the analysis confirm the view held by experts; individual demand management strategies are context-specific and should be adopted with careful attention to local conditions. In North Carolina, the degree of demand management pursued by public systems reflects a policy choice of system managers, customers, and decision makers. River basin planning is also shown to positively affect the degree of demand management pursued by public systems. A model estimating overall system demand shows that conservation pricing can be effective at reducing levels of water use; however, estimating the effectiveness of demand management strategies is complicated by a lack of criteria for determining systems’ program participation.Item Embargo Digital Hydraulics Simulation in Mathematica on Sudden Expansion Flows(2023) Frechette, AugustIn this work, we offer readers the ability to numerically simulate flow through a sudden expansion themselves. We choose to study the sudden expansion due to its prevalence in engineered and natural water distribution networks (i.e., pipes and rivers, respectively). The simulation is written in the Wolfram Language, also known as Mathematica. The symbolic nature of this programming language enables readers to implement physical theory directly, resulting in a highly readable numerical flow solver; a stark contrast with commonplace commercial flow solvers, which operate like “black box” technologies, and low-level programming languages, which require an advanced level of syntax knowledge and programming proficiency. Upon completion of this laboratory exercise, users should be able to: (i) describe the main principles underpinning the numerical simulation of non-linear models, (ii) apply numerical models to investigate the accuracy of simplified analytical models, (iii) demonstrate a beginner-level understanding of Mathematica and, more broadly, symbolic coding environments, (ii) and most generally, (iv) understand the proper context for physical and numerical experimentation. The novelty of this work is attributed to the fact that no such simulation tool is detailed and provided in the literature for readers to utilize and alter at their discretion.
This work was developed and undertaken in collaboration with my co-authors, Dr. Anil Ganti (A.G.), and Dr. Zbigniew Kabala (Z.J.K), my master’s advisor. Author contributions are as follows: conceptualization, Z.J.K.; methodology, A.H.F, A.G. and Z.J.K.; software, A.H.F and A.G.; validation, A.H.F, A.G. and Z.J.K.; formal analysis, A.H.F; investigation, A.H.F, A.G. and Z.J.K.; resources, Z.J.K; data curation, A.H.F, A.G. and Z.J.K.; writing—original draft preparation, A.H.F and Z.J.K.; writing—review and editing, A.H.F, A.G. and Z.J.K.; visualization, A.H.F.; supervision, Z.J.K.; project administration, A.H.F and Z.J.K.
Partial funding for this project has been received from Duke University Undergraduate Program Enhancement Fund (UPEF) grant 399-000226.
Item Open Access Environmental Water Markets: Growth, Trends & Opportunities(2020-04-23) David, BryanThis Masters Project examined the growth and trends in environmental water market activity in the western United States between 2008-18. This study demonstrated how state laws do and do not shape markets, along with how markets have continued to expand in both overall volume and market value. Three factors shape this expansion and maturation: 1) regulatory requirements, as 84% of transfers are based on a federal or state program; 2) innovation and maturation of markets with the inclusion of new types of payments and tools to conserve water; and 3) NGO purchasing power being stronger than that of federal or state agencies. Finally, the report concluded with an examination of future growth opportunities. This included reducing transaction costs, creating open exchanges and encouraging private investment to leverage improving environmental conditions.Item Open Access Evaluating Need for Adaptation for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Wilmington District Reservoirs(2016-04-29) Tchamkina, MaryThe U.S. Army Corps of Engineers owns and operates over 500 reservoirs in the U.S., the majority of which are 50 years old. As the agency looks to the future, it is crucial for it to understand which reservoirs continue to meet design and operational goals. This report examines the Corps’ reservoir policy and historic operations to assess the reservoirs’ need for adaptation, focusing on the Wilmington District in Southeastern U.S. Four metrics are developed using Corps data and documentation. The metrics are synthesized via a model that presents 5 Wilmington reservoirs as a system. The model helps visualize concepts of operational flexibility and thresholds of adaptation, though reliable estimates of the latter could not be gleaned from Corps documentation. The report concludes that the agency's wide discretion is at odds with the establishment of thresholds for adaptation. This disincentive may undermine the Corps' ability to prepare for climate challenges of the 21st century.Item Open Access Identifying water contamination from fossil fuel development using geochemical and isotopic fingerprints(2017) Harkness, JenniferFossil fuels continue to be a major component of the energy economies in North America, accounting for 60% of electricity generation in the U.S. Recent incidences (i.e. spills) and limited regulation of the fossil fuel industry has generated public concern about the risks fossil fuel development pose to water resources. Previous studies have identified negative impacts on water quality associated with the storage and disposal of coal combustion residuals, oil sands process-affected water, and oil and gas wastewater, as well as leaking of methane to groundwater in areas of hydraulic fracturing. In addition, contamination of water resources from natural (geogenic) sources has also been observed in many of the areas associated with fossil fuel development. Since naturally occurring saline water is common in some regions associated with fossil fuel explorations, delineating the effects of anthropogenic contamination sources is a major challenge for evaluating the impact of fossil fuel development on water quality.
This thesis investigates the geochemical and isotopic characteristics of wastewater from coal combustion residual storage ponds, unconventional oil and gas exploration, and oil sands mining, in an attempt to evaluate the use of geochemical and isotopic tracers to identify fossil fuel-associated wastewaters in the environment. This includes the investigation of (1) halogen (Br, I) and ammonium contents of oil and gas wastewater (OGW);(2) the lithium isotope ratios in OGW and coal combustion residuals; and (3) the inorganic geochemistry and boron, strontium and lithium isotope ratios of oil sands processed-affected water (OSPW). In three case studies, these geochemical and isotopic tools were integrated into comprehensive geochemical frameworks that investigated the (1) leaking of coal ash ponds to surface and groundwater in the southeastern United Sates; (2) geochemistry of groundwater in an area of shale gas development in West Virginia through time and space; and (3) evaluation of the sources of molybdenum in contaminated groundwater in southeastern
Wisconsin and possible links to coal ash surface disposal. These investigations illustrate a range of situations in which isotopic fingerprinting provided a unique geochemical tool that can successfully identify fossil fuel-related wastewater in the environment. These studies have also demonstrated the environmental impact upon releasing of fossil fuels wastewater to the environment. The case studies support the use of geochemical and isotope tools as robust methods to not only identify contamination of water resources by fossil fuel-related activities, but also to distinguish wastewater contamination from naturally occurring contamination in areas of fossil fuel development. These studies highlight the benefit of using a suite of geochemical tools when investigating water quality impacts.
Item Open Access Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought(2016) Hodes, JaredPeriods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.
Item Open Access Minimization of Third-Party Injury in Multi-Party Water Right Transfers in Colorado(2017-04-28) Hamilton, Andrew LIn the western United States, prior appropriation is the dominant form of water rights. In times of scarcity, the most senior water rights are given priority. Water right transfers can increase economic efficiency by moving water toward higher value uses, but the parties involved must prove that transfers do not reduce water availability for third-party users. In this study, prior appropriation and water right transfers were studied using the Upper Gunnison River Basin in Colorado as a test case. Streams and diversion structures were combined into a simplified network object in the R language. A flow allocation model was then developed to solve for the set of withdrawals and streamflows consistent with mass balance constraints and prior appropriation. The first objective of this work was to explore the drivers on water availability under prior appropriation. Specifically considered were the effects of spatial and temporal hydrologic variability, as well as the set of upstream and downstream priorities, on water availability for a given water right holder. Additionally, the effects of these drivers on water right transfers and third-party injuries were explored. Next, a number of case studies were developed which showcase strategies for using carefully constructed water right transfers for various ends. Multi-party overlapping water right transfers were considered as a solution to the problem of third-party injury. Multi-party water right transfers were also suggested as a means to reduce transaction costs in water right transfers. Symmetric, bilateral water right transfers were considered as a way of transferring hydrologic risk. Lastly, downstream water right transfers were suggested as a strategy for increasing instream flows in vulnerable reaches. In addition to these heuristic case studies, a web-based tool was developed which allows users to explore water rights within the Upper Gunnison River Basin and test the effects of multi-party transfers on third-parties and instream flows. I hope that this tool will be useful for water managers, regulators, and educators who would like to develop a better understanding of prior appropriation rules and the effects of water right transfers.Item Open Access Reclaimed Water and Integrated Water Management in North Carolina(2009-04-24T20:41:58Z) Merriman, LindseyTraditionally, water has been considered a highly reliable resource, but population growth, climate change, and water quality concerns are proving otherwise. The southwestern US has utilized an integrated water resource management strategy heavily dependent upon wastewater reuse for decades as a means to supplement their waning freshwater resources. In the southeastern US, on the other hand, water resources have been historically more abundant leaving little cause for the region to incorporate more stringent water resource management strategies. Water scarcity, however, is an emerging concern for the region and integrated water resource management strategies utilizing reclaimed wastewater should be considered. This master’s project focuses on the feasibility of using reclaimed water in North Carolina as a component of an integrated water resource management plan (IWRM). Through literature review and web research, this study will highlight the importance of reclaimed water and the merits of an IWRM plan which can be seen throughout the country. The bulk of this project, however, looks specifically at the costs and benefits of providing reclaimed water as a non-potable water supply for operation of the steam plant, chilled water plants 1 and 2, and for all irrigation purposes at Duke University. I examined three reclaimed water supply scenarios for Duke University including: (1) Continuing campus water usage as usual, (2) Constructing a direct distribution line from Durham’s Regional reclamation facility, (3) Establishing an on campus membrane bioreactor (MBR) reclamation system. By comparing the net present values of each alternative, I illustrate the economic implications of replacing potable city water with reclaimed water in facility operations and discuss the financial feasibility of these alternatives for the University. I further demonstrate the merits of reclamation systems by identifying other non-quantifiable benefits this resource presents for both the University and the City of Durham. Utilizing the outcome of this analysis in conjuncture with other examples of reclamation and reuse in the state, I also offer recommendations that demonstrate potential environmental, social, and educational benefits that effective water reuse policy could have for future conservation throughout North Carolina.Item Open Access Tools for Comprehensive Proactive Planning: Backcasting Long-Term Water Supply Scenarios for a Large Southeastern River(2014-04-25) Perry, MargaretApproaches to water planning are increasingly collaborative, watershed-scale, and focused on adaptive management. Such approaches are difficult to implement under the conditions of low certainty and control that typify large watersheds over long time horizons. To achieve comprehensive proactive planning, a toolbox of techniques is needed that can help incorporate new information into plans as the appropriate implementation, framing, and context of management shifts. This study investigated backcasting as one such complementary technique to current water planning strategies. Backcasting is a planning technique in which participants reconstruct sequences of events that connect future scenarios to near-term actions. This process helps managers to consider a range of possible system futures, links future scenarios to present actions, and understand the policy changes needed. To test this technique, I designed and facilitated a backcasting workshop using participatory methods modified from those used in a similar, larger process in the European Union. I conducted the workshop once with graduate students and once with policy and management experts in the Cape Fear River basin of North Carolina. The participants used backcasting to articulate several plausible trajectories for water supply in the basin over a 60 year time horizon. Each backcasted trajectory began with a different endpoint scenario for the basin economy and patterns of land use in 2075. Results confirm that backcasting is useful for identifying priority actions and potential obstacles to desirable outcomes, and suggest that it is a good way to reveal decision-makers’ underlying assumptions about system dynamics and the purposes of planning. Backcasting is an important addition to the toolbox of U.S. water planning techniques. Use of this technique has great potential to strengthen collaborative watershed-scale adaptive management of water resources.