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Item Open Access A Comprehensive Measurement of the Local Value of the Hubble Constant with 1 km/s/Mpc Uncertainty from the Hubble Space Telescope and the SH0ES TeamRiess, Adam G; Yuan, Wenlong; Macri, Lucas M; Scolnic, Dan; Brout, Dillon; Casertano, Stefano; Jones, David O; Murakami, Yukei; Breuval, Louise; Brink, Thomas G; Filippenko, Alexei V; Hoffmann, Samantha; Jha, Saurabh W; Kenworthy, W D'arcy; Mackenty, John; Stahl, Benjamin E; Zheng, WeikangWe report observations from HST of Cepheids in the hosts of 42 SNe Ia used to calibrate the Hubble constant (H0). These include all suitable SNe Ia in the last 40 years at z<0.01, measured with >1000 orbits, more than doubling the sample whose size limits the precision of H0. The Cepheids are calibrated geometrically from Gaia EDR3 parallaxes, masers in N4258 (here tripling that Cepheid sample), and DEBs in the LMC. The Cepheids were measured with the same WFC3 instrument and filters (F555W, F814W, F160W) to negate zeropoint errors. We present multiple verifications of Cepheid photometry and tests of background determinations that show measurements are accurate in the presence of crowding. The SNe calibrate the mag-z relation from the new Pantheon+ compilation, accounting here for covariance between all SN data, with host properties and SN surveys matched to negate differences. We decrease the uncertainty in H0 to 1 km/s/Mpc with systematics. We present a comprehensive set of ~70 analysis variants to explore the sensitivity of H0 to selections of anchors, SN surveys, z range, variations in the analysis of dust, metallicity, form of the P-L relation, SN color, flows, sample bifurcations, and simultaneous measurement of H(z). Our baseline result from the Cepheid-SN sample is H0=73.04+-1.04 km/s/Mpc, which includes systematics and lies near the median of all analysis variants. We demonstrate consistency with measures from HST of the TRGB between SN hosts and NGC 4258 with Cepheids and together these yield 72.53+-0.99. Including high-z SN Ia we find H0=73.30+-1.04 with q0=-0.51+-0.024. We find a 5-sigma difference with H0 predicted by Planck+LCDM, with no indication this arises from measurement errors or analysis variations considered to date. The source of this now long-standing discrepancy between direct and cosmological routes to determining the Hubble constant remains unknown.Item Open Access A Reference Survey for Supernova Cosmology with the Nancy Grace Roman Space TelescopeRose, BM; Baltay, C; Hounsell, R; Macias, P; Rubin, D; Scolnic, D; Aldering, G; Bohlin, R; Dai, M; Deustua, SE; Foley, RJ; Fruchter, A; Galbany, L; Jha, SW; Jones, DO; Joshi, BA; Kelly, PL; Kessler, R; Kirshner, RP; Mandel, KS; Perlmutter, S; Pierel, J; Qu, H; Rabinowitz, D; Rest, A; Riess, AG; Rodney, S; Sako, M; Siebert, MR; Strolger, L; Suzuki, N; Thorp, S; Dyk, SD Van; Wang, K; Ward, SM; Wood-Vasey, WMThis note presents an initial survey design for the Nancy Grace Roman High-latitude Time Domain Survey. This is not meant to be a final or exhaustive list of all the survey strategy choices, but instead presents a viable path towards achieving the desired precision and accuracy of dark energy measurements using Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). We describe a survey strategy that use six filters (RZYJH and F) and the prism on the Roman Wide Field Instrument. This survey has two tiers, one "wide" which targets SNe Ia at redshifts up to 1 and one "deep" targeting redshifts up to 1.7; for each, four filters are used (with Y and J used in both tiers). We propose one field each in the north and south continuous viewing zones, and expect to obtain high-quality distances of $\sim$12,000 SNe Ia with $\sim$5,000 at z > 1. We propose a wide-tier area of $\sim$19 deg$^2$ and a deep tier of $\sim$5 deg$^2$. Exposure times range from 100 s to 900 s for imaging and 900 s to 3600 s for the prism. These exposure times would reach $\sim$25.5 mag and $\sim$26.5 mag for the wide and deep tiers respectively, with deep co-add stacks reaching $\sim$28 mag and $\sim$29 mag. The total survey spans two years, with a total allocation time of six months, and a cadence of $\sim$5 days.Item Open Access Binning is Sinning (Supernova Version): The Impact of Self-Calibration in Cosmological Analyses with Type Ia SupernovaeBrout, D; Hinton, SR; Scolnic, DRecent cosmological analyses (e.g., JLA, Pantheon) of Type Ia Supernova (SNIa) have propagated systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix and either binned or smoothed the systematic vectors in redshift space. We demonstrate that systematic error budgets of these analyses can be improved by a factor of $\sim1.5\times$ with the use of unbinned and unsmoothed covariance matrices. To understand this, we employ a separate approach that simultaneously fits for cosmological parameters and additional self-calibrating scale parameters that constrain the size of each systematic. We show that the covariance-matrix approach and scale-parameter approach yield equivalent results, implying that in both cases the data can self-calibrate certain systematic uncertainties, but that this ability is hindered when information is binned or smoothed in redshift space. We review the top systematic uncertainties in current analyses and find that the reduction of systematic uncertainties in the unbinned case depends on whether a systematic is consistent with varying the cosmological model and whether or not the systematic can be described by additional correlations between SN properties and luminosity. Furthermore, we show that the power of self-calibration increases with the size of the dataset, which presents a tremendous opportunity for upcoming analyses of photometrically classified samples, like those of Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (NGRST). However, to take advantage of self-calibration in large, photometrically-classified samples, we must first address the issue that binning is required in currently-used photometric methodologies.Item Open Access Cosmic Distances Calibrated to 1% Precision with Gaia EDR3 Parallaxes and Hubble Space Telescope Photometry of 75 Milky Way Cepheids Confirm Tension with LambdaCDMRiess, AG; Casertano, S; Yuan, W; Bradley Bowers, J; Macri, L; Zinn, JC; Scolnic, DWe present an expanded sample of 75 Milky Way Cepheids with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) photometry and Gaia EDR3 parallaxes which we use to recalibrate the extragalactic distance ladder and refine the determination of the Hubble constant. All HST observations were obtained with the same instrument (WFC3) and filters (F555W, F814W, F160W) used for imaging of extragalactic Cepheids in Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) hosts. The HST observations used the WFC3 spatial scanning mode to mitigate saturation and reduce pixel-to-pixel calibration errors, reaching a mean photometric error of 5 millimags per observation. We use new Gaia EDR3 parallaxes, vastly improved since DR2, and the Period-Luminosity (PL) relation of these Cepheids to simultaneously calibrate the extragalactic distance ladder and to refine the determination of the Gaia EDR3 parallax offset. The resulting geometric calibration of Cepheid luminosities has 1.0% precision, better than any alternative geometric anchor. Applied to the calibration of SNe~Ia, it results in a measurement of the Hubble constant of 73.0 +/- 1.4 km/sec/Mpc, in good agreement with conclusions based on earlier Gaia data releases. We also find the slope of the Cepheid PL relation in the Milky Way, and the metallicity dependence of its zeropoint, to be in good agreement with the mean values derived from other galaxies. In combination with the best complementary sources of Cepheid calibration, we reach 1.8% precision and find H_0=73.2 +/- 1.3 km/sec/Mpc, a 4.2 sigma difference with the prediction from Planck CMB observations under LambdaCDM. We expect to reach ~1.3% precision in the near term from an expanded sample of ~40 SNe Ia in Cepheid hosts.Item Open Access Cosmological model insensitivity of local $H_0$ from the Cepheid distance ladderDhawan, S; Brout, D; Scolnic, D; Goobar, A; Riess, AG; Miranda, VThe observed tension ($\sim 9\%$ difference) between the local distance ladder measurement of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, and its value inferred from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) could hint at new, exotic, cosmological physics. We test the impact of the assumption about the expansion history of the universe ($0.01Item Open Access Cosmology with the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope -- Multi-Probe StrategiesEifler, Tim; Miyatake, Hironao; Krause, Elisabeth; Heinrich, Chen; Miranda, Vivian; Hirata, Christopher; Xu, Jiachuan; Hemmati, Shoubaneh; Simet, Melanie; Capak, Peter; Choi, Ami; Doré, Olivier; Doux, Cyrille; Fang, Xiao; Hounsell, Rebekah; Huff, Eric; Huang, Hung-Jin; Jarvis, Mike; Kruk, Jeffrey; Masters, Dan; Rozo, Eduardo; Scolnic, Dan; Spergel, David N; Troxel, Michael; von der Linden, Anja; Wang, Yun; Weinberg, David H; Wenzl, Lukas; Wu, Hao-YiWe simulate the scientific performance of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) High Latitude Survey (HLS) on dark energy and modified gravity. The 1.6 year HLS Reference survey is currently envisioned to image 2000 deg$^2$ in multiple bands to a depth of $\sim$26.5 in Y, J, H and to cover the same area with slit-less spectroscopy beyond z=3. The combination of deep, multi-band photometry and deep spectroscopy will allow scientists to measure the growth and geometry of the Universe through a variety of cosmological probes (e.g., weak lensing, galaxy clusters, galaxy clustering, BAO, Type Ia supernova) and, equally, it will allow an exquisite control of observational and astrophysical systematic effects. In this paper we explore multi-probe strategies that can be implemented given WFIRST's instrument capabilities. We model cosmological probes individually and jointly and account for correlated systematics and statistical uncertainties due to the higher order moments of the density field. We explore different levels of observational systematics for the WFIRST survey (photo-z and shear calibration) and ultimately run a joint likelihood analysis in N-dim parameter space. We find that the WFIRST reference survey alone (no external data sets) can achieve a standard dark energy FoM of >300 when including all probes. This assumes no information from external data sets and realistic assumptions for systematics. Our study of the HLS reference survey should be seen as part of a future community driven effort to simulate and optimize the science return of WFIRST.Item Open Access Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cluster Abundances and Weak LensingAbbott, TMC; Aguena, M; Alarcon, A; Allam, S; Allen, S; Annis, J; Avila, S; Bacon, D; Bechtol, K; Bermeo, A; Bernstein, GM; Bertin, E; Bhargava, S; Bocquet, S; Brooks, D; Brout, D; Buckley-Geer, E; Burke, DL; Carnero Rosell, A; Carrasco Kind, M; Carretero, J; Castander, FJ; Cawthon, R; Chang, C; Chen, X; Choi, A; Costanzi, M; Crocce, M; da Costa, LN; Davis, TM; De Vicente, J; DeRose, J; Desai, S; Diehl, HT; Dietrich, JP; Dodelson, S; Doel, P; Drlica-Wagner, A; Eckert, K; Eifler, TF; Elvin-Poole, J; Estrada, J; Everett, S; Evrard, AE; Farahi, A; Ferrero, I; Flaugher, B; Fosalba, P; Frieman, J; García-Bellido, J; Gatti, M; Gaztanaga, E; Gerdes, DW; Giannantonio, T; Giles, P; Grandis, S; Gruen, D; Gruendl, RA; Gschwend, J; Gutierrez, G; Hartley, WG; Hinton, SR; Hollowood, DL; Honscheid, K; Hoyle, B; Huterer, D; James, DJ; Jarvis, M; Jeltema, T; Johnson, MWG; Johnson, MD; Kent, S; Krause, E; Kron, R; Kuehn, K; Kuropatkin, N; Lahav, O; Li, TS; Lidman, C; Lima, M; Lin, H; MacCrann, N; Maia, MAG; Mantz, A; Marshall, JL; Martini, P; Mayers, J; Melchior, P; Mena-Fernández, J; Menanteau, F; Miquel, R; Mohr, JJ; Nichol, RC; Nord, B; Ogando, RLC; Palmese, A; Paz-Chinchón, F; Plazas, AA; Prat, J; Rau, MM; Romer, AK; Roodman, A; Rooney, P; Rozo, E; Rykoff, ES; Sako, M; Samuroff, S; Sánchez, C; Sanchez, E; Saro, A; Scarpine, V; Schubnell, M; Scolnic, D; Serrano, S; Sevilla-Noarbe, I; Sheldon, E; Smith, J Allyn; Smith, M; Suchyta, E; Swanson, MEC; Tarle, G; Thomas, D; To, C; Troxel, MA; Tucker, DL; Varga, TN; von der Linden, A; Walker, AR; Wechsler, RH; Weller, J; Wilkinson, RD; Wu, H; Yanny, B; Zhang, Y; Zhang, Z; Zuntz, J; Collaboration, DESWe perform a joint analysis of the counts and weak lensing signal of redMaPPer clusters selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 dataset. Our analysis uses the same shear and source photometric redshifts estimates as were used in the DES combined probes analysis. Our analysis results in surprisingly low values for $S_8 =\sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}= 0.65\pm 0.04$, driven by a low matter density parameter, $\Omega_{\rm m}=0.179^{+0.031}_{-0.038}$, with $\sigma_8-\Omega_{\rm m}$ posteriors in $2.4\sigma$ tension with the DES Y1 3x2pt results, and in $5.6\sigma$ with the Planck CMB analysis. These results include the impact of post-unblinding changes to the analysis, which did not improve the level of consistency with other data sets compared to the results obtained at the unblinding. The fact that multiple cosmological probes (supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB anisotropies), and other galaxy cluster analyses all favor significantly higher matter densities suggests the presence of systematic errors in the data or an incomplete modeling of the relevant physics. Cross checks with X-ray and microwave data, as well as independent constraints on the observable--mass relation from SZ selected clusters, suggest that the discrepancy resides in our modeling of the weak lensing signal rather than the cluster abundance. Repeating our analysis using a higher richness threshold ($\lambda \ge 30$) significantly reduces the tension with other probes, and points to one or more richness-dependent effects not captured by our model.Item Open Access Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Clustering and Weak Lensing(arXiv e-prints, 2021-05) Collaboration, DES; Abbott, TMC; Aguena, M; Alarcon, A; Allam, S; Alves, O; Amon, A; Andrade-Oliveira, F; Annis, J; Avila, S; Bacon, D; Baxter, E; Bechtol, K; Becker, MR; Bernstein, GM; Bhargava, S; Birrer, S; Blazek, J; Brandao-Souza, A; Bridle, SL; Brooks, D; Buckley-Geer, E; Burke, DL; Camacho, H; Campos, A; Carnero Rosell, A; Carrasco Kind, M; Carretero, J; Castander, FJ; Cawthon, R; Chang, C; Chen, A; Chen, R; Choi, A; Conselice, C; Cordero, J; Costanzi, M; Crocce, M; da Costa, LN; da Silva Pereira, ME; Davis, C; Davis, TM; De Vicente, J; DeRose, J; Desai, S; Di Valentino, E; Diehl, HT; Dietrich, JP; Dodelson, S; Doel, P; Doux, C; Drlica-Wagner, A; Eckert, K; Eifler, TF; Elsner, F; Elvin-Poole, J; Everett, S; Evrard, AE; Fang, X; Farahi, A; Fernandez, E; Ferrero, I; Ferté, A; Fosalba, P; Friedrich, O; Frieman, J; García-Bellido, J; Gatti, M; Gaztanaga, E; Gerdes, DW; Giannantonio, T; Giannini, G; Gruen, D; Gruendl, RA; Gschwend, J; Gutierrez, G; Harrison, I; Hartley, WG; Herner, K; Hinton, SR; Hollowood, DL; Honscheid, K; Hoyle, B; Huff, EM; Huterer, D; Jain, B; James, DJ; Jarvis, M; Jeffrey, N; Jeltema, T; Kovacs, A; Krause, E; Kron, R; Kuehn, K; Kuropatkin, N; Lahav, O; Leget, P-F; Lemos, P; Liddle, AR; Lidman, C; Lima, M; Lin, H; MacCrann, N; Maia, MAG; Marshall, JL; Martini, P; McCullough, J; Melchior, P; Mena-Fernández, J; Menanteau, F; Miquel, R; Mohr, JJ; Morgan, R; Muir, J; Myles, J; Nadathur, S; Navarro-Alsina, A; Nichol, RC; Ogando, RLC; Omori, Y; Palmese, A; Pandey, S; Park, Y; Paz-Chinchón, F; Petravick, D; Pieres, A; Plazas Malagón, AA; Porredon, A; Prat, J; Raveri, M; Rodriguez-Monroy, M; Rollins, RP; Romer, AK; Roodman, A; Rosenfeld, R; Ross, AJ; Rykoff, ES; Samuroff, S; Sánchez, C; Sanchez, E; Sanchez, J; Sanchez Cid, D; Scarpine, V; Schubnell, M; Scolnic, D; Secco, LF; Serrano, S; Sevilla-Noarbe, I; Sheldon, E; Shin, T; Smith, M; Soares-Santos, M; Suchyta, E; Swanson, MEC; Tabbutt, M; Tarle, G; Thomas, D; To, C; Troja, A; Troxel, MA; Tucker, DL; Tutusaus, I; Varga, TN; Walker, AR; Weaverdyck, N; Weller, J; Yanny, B; Yin, B; Zhang, Y; Zuntz, JWe present the first cosmology results from large-scale structure in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) spanning 5000 deg$^2$. We perform an analysis combining three two-point correlation functions (3$\times$2pt): (i) cosmic shear using 100 million source galaxies, (ii) galaxy clustering, and (iii) the cross-correlation of source galaxy shear with lens galaxy positions. The analysis was designed to mitigate confirmation or observer bias; we describe specific changes made to the lens galaxy sample following unblinding of the results. We model the data within the flat $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM cosmological models. We find consistent cosmological results between the three two-point correlation functions; their combination yields clustering amplitude $S_8=0.776^{+0.017}_{-0.017}$ and matter density $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.339^{+0.032}_{-0.031}$ in $\Lambda$CDM, mean with 68% confidence limits; $S_8=0.775^{+0.026}_{-0.024}$, $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.352^{+0.035}_{-0.041}$, and dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w=-0.98^{+0.32}_{-0.20}$ in $w$CDM. This combination of DES data is consistent with the prediction of the model favored by the Planck 2018 cosmic microwave background (CMB) primary anisotropy data, which is quantified with a probability-to-exceed $p=0.13$ to $0.48$. When combining DES 3$\times$2pt data with available baryon acoustic oscillation, redshift-space distortion, and type Ia supernovae data, we find $p=0.34$. Combining all of these data sets with Planck CMB lensing yields joint parameter constraints of $S_8 = 0.812^{+0.008}_{-0.008}$, $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.306^{+0.004}_{-0.005}$, $h=0.680^{+0.004}_{-0.003}$, and $\sum m_{\nu}<0.13 \;\mathrm{eV\; (95\% \;CL)}$ in $\Lambda$CDM; $S_8 = 0.812^{+0.008}_{-0.008}$, $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}} = 0.302^{+0.006}_{-0.006}$, $h=0.687^{+0.006}_{-0.007}$, and $w=-1.031^{+0.030}_{-0.027}$ in $w$CDM. (abridged)Item Open Access First Cosmology Results using Type Ia Supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey: The Effect of Host Galaxy Properties on Supernova LuminositySmith, M; Sullivan, M; Wiseman, P; Kessler, R; Scolnic, D; Brout, D; D'Andrea, CB; Davis, TM; Foley, RJ; Frohmaier, C; Galbany, L; Gupta, RR; Gutiérrez, CP; Hinton, SR; Kelsey, L; Lidman, C; Macaulay, E; Möller, A; Nichol, RC; Nugent, P; Palmese, A; Pursiainen, M; Sako, M; Swann, E; Thomas, RC; Tucker, BE; Vincenzi, M; Carollo, D; Lewis, GF; Sommer, NE; Abbott, TMC; Aguena, M; Allam, S; Avila, S; Bertin, E; Bhargava, S; Brooks, D; Buckley-Geer, E; Burke, DL; Rosell, AC; Kind, MC; Costanzi, M; da Costa, LN; de Vicente, J; Desai, S; Diehl, HT; Doel, P; Eifler, TF; Everett, S; Flaugher, B; Fosalba, P; Frieman, J; García-Bellido, J; Gaztanaga, E; Glazebrook, K; Gruen, D; Gruendl, RA; Gschwend, J; Gutierrez, G; Hartley, WG; Hollowood, DL; Honscheid, K; James, DJ; Krause, E; Kuehn, K; Kuropatkin, N; Lima, M; MacCrann, N; Maia, MAG; Marshall, JL; Martini, P; Melchior, P; Menanteau, F; Miquel, R; Paz-Chinchón, F; Plazas, AA; Romer, AK; Roodman, A; Rykoff, ES; Sanchez, E; Scarpine, V; Schubnell, M; Serrano, S; Sevilla-Noarbe, I; Suchyta, E; Swanson, MEC; Tarle, G; Thomas, D; Tucker, DL; Varga, TN; Walker, ARWe present improved photometric measurements for the host galaxies of 206 spectroscopically confirmed type Ia supernovae discovered by the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN) and used in the first DES-SN cosmological analysis. Fitting spectral energy distributions to the $griz$ photometric measurements of the DES-SN host galaxies, we derive stellar masses and star-formation rates. For the DES-SN sample, when considering a 5D ($z$, $x_1$, $c$, $\alpha$, $\beta$) bias correction, we find evidence of a Hubble residual `mass step', where SNe Ia in high mass galaxies ($>10^{10} \textrm{M}_{\odot}$) are intrinsically more luminous (after correction) than their low mass counterparts by $\gamma=0.040\pm0.019$mag. This value is larger by $0.031$mag than the value found in the first DES-SN cosmological analysis. This difference is due to a combination of updated photometric measurements and improved star formation histories and is not from host-galaxy misidentification. When using a 1D (redshift-only) bias correction the inferred mass step is larger, with $\gamma=0.066\pm0.020$mag. The 1D-5D $\gamma$ difference for DES-SN is $0.026\pm0.009$mag. We show that this difference is due to a strong correlation between host galaxy stellar mass and the $x_1$ component of the 5D distance-bias correction. To better understand this effect, we include an intrinsic correlation between light-curve width and stellar mass in simulated SN Ia samples. We show that a 5D fit recovers $\gamma$ with $-9$mmag bias compared to a $+2$mmag bias for a 1D fit. This difference can explain part of the discrepancy seen in the data. Improvements in modeling correlations between galaxy properties and SN is necessary to determine the implications for $\gamma$ and ensure unbiased precision estimates of the dark energy equation-of-state as we enter the era of LSST.Item Open Access It's Dust: Solving the Mysteries of the Intrinsic Scatter and Host-Galaxy Dependence of Standardized Type Ia Supernova BrightnessesBrout, Dillon; Scolnic, DanielThe use of Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) as cosmological tools has motivated significant effort to: understand what drives the intrinsic scatter of SN Ia distance modulus residuals after standardization, characterize the distribution of SN Ia colors, and explain why properties of the host galaxies of the SNe correlate with SN Ia distance modulus residuals. We use a compiled sample of $\sim1450$ spectroscopically confirmed, photometric light-curves of SN Ia and propose a solution to these three problems simultaneously that also explains an empirical 11$\sigma$ detection of the dependence of Hubble residual scatter on SN Ia color. We introduce a physical model of color where intrinsic SN Ia colors with a relatively weak correlation with luminosity are combined with extrinsic dust-like colors ($E(B-V)$) with a wide range of extinction parameter values ($R_V$). This model captures the observed trends of Hubble residual scatter and indicates that the dominant component of SN Ia intrinsic scatter is from variation in $R_V$. We also find that the recovered $E(B-V)$ and $R_V$ distributions differ based on global host-galaxy stellar mass and this explains the observed correlation ($\gamma$) between mass and Hubble residuals seen in past analyses as well as an observed 4.5$\sigma$ dependence of $\gamma$ on SN Ia color. This finding removes any need to prescribe different intrinsic luminosities to different progenitor systems. Finally we measure biases in the equation-of-state of dark energy ($w$) up to $|\Delta w|=0.04$ by replacing previous models of SN color with our dust-based model; this bias is larger than any systematic uncertainty in previous SN Ia cosmological analyses.Item Open Access No Evidence for Type Ia Supernova Luminosity Evolution: Evidence for Dark Energy is RobustRose, BM; Rubin, D; Cikota, A; Deustua, SE; Dixon, S; Fruchter, A; Jones, DO; Riess, AG; Scolnic, DMType Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful standardized candles for constraining the cosmological model and provided the first evidence of accelerated expansion. Their precision derives from empirical correlations now measured from $>1000$ SNe Ia between their luminosities, light curve shapes, colors and most recently a modest relationship with the mass of their host galaxy. As mass correlates with other host properties, these have been investigated to improve SN Ia standardization though none have been shown to significantly alter the determination of cosmological parameters. We re-examine a recent claim, based on 34 SN Ia in nearby passive host galaxies, of a 0.05 mag/Gyr dependence of standardized SN Ia luminosity on host age which if extrapolate to higher redshifts, might accrue to 0.25 mag challenging the inference of dark energy. We reanalyze this sample of hosts using both the original method and a Bayesian Hierarchical Model and find after a fuller accounting of the errors the significance for a dependence on age to be $\leq2\sigma$ and $\sim1\sigma$ after removal of a single poorly-measured SN. To test the claim that a trend seen in old stellar populations can be applied to younger ages, we extend our analysis to a larger sample which includes young hosts. We find the residual dependence of host age (after all standardization typically employed for cosmological measurements) to be $0.0011\pm0.0018$ mag/Gyr ($0.6\sigma$) for 254 SNe Ia from the Pantheon sample, consistent with no trend and strongly ruling out the large but low significance trend claimed from the passive hosts.Item Open Access SALT3: An Improved Type Ia Supernova Model for Measuring Cosmic DistancesKenworthy, WD; Jones, DO; Dai, M; Kessler, R; Scolnic, D; Brout, D; Siebert, MR; Pierel, JDR; Dettman, KG; Dimitriadis, G; Foley, RJ; Jha, SW; Pan, Y-C; Riess, A; Rodney, S; Rojas-Bravo, CA spectral-energy distribution (SED) model for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is a critical tool for measuring precise and accurate distances across a large redshift range and constraining cosmological parameters. We present an improved model framework, SALT3, which has several advantages over current models including the leading SALT2 model (SALT2.4). While SALT3 has a similar philosophy, it differs from SALT2 by having improved estimation of uncertainties, better separation of color and light-curve stretch, and a publicly available training code. We present the application of our training method on a cross-calibrated compilation of 1083 SNe with 1207 spectra. Our compilation is $2.5\times$ larger than the SALT2 training sample and has greatly reduced calibration uncertainties. The resulting trained SALT3.K21 model has an extended wavelength range $2000$-$11000$ angstroms (1800 angstroms redder) and reduced uncertainties compared to SALT2, enabling accurate use of low-$z$ $I$ and $iz$ photometric bands. Including these previously discarded bands, SALT3.K21 reduces the Hubble scatter of the low-z Foundation and CfA3 samples by 15% and 10%, respectively. To check for potential systematic uncertainties we compare distances of low ($0.01Item Open Access SNIa-Cosmology Analysis Results from Simulated LSST Images: from Difference Imaging to Constraints on Dark EnergySánchez, B; Kessler, R; Scolnic, D; Armstrong, B; Biswas, R; Bogart, J; Chiang, J; Cohen-Tanugi, J; Fouchez, D; Gris, Ph; Heitmann, K; Hložek, R; Jha, S; Kelly, H; Liu, S; Narayan, G; Racine, B; Rykoff, E; Sullivan, M; Walter, C; Wood-Vasey, M; Collaboration, The LSST Dark Energy ScienceThe Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to process ${\sim}10^6$ transient detections per night. For precision measurements of cosmological parameters and rates, it is critical to understand the detection efficiency, magnitude limits, artifact contamination levels, and biases in the selection and photometry. Here we rigorously test the LSST Difference Image Analysis (DIA) pipeline using simulated images from the Rubin Observatory LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge (DC2) simulation for the Wide-Fast-Deep (WFD) survey area. DC2 is the first large-scale (300 deg$^2$) image simulation of a transient survey that includes realistic cadence, variable observing conditions, and CCD image artifacts. We analyze ${\sim}$15 deg$^2$ of DC2 over a 5-year time-span in which artificial point-sources from Type Ia Supernovae (SNIa) light curves have been overlaid onto the images. We measure the detection efficiency as a function of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and find a $50\%$ efficiency at $\rm{SNR}=5.8$. The magnitude limits for each filter are: $u=23.66$, $g=24.69$, $r=24.06$, $i=23.45$, $z=22.54$, $y=21.62$ $\rm{mag}$. The artifact contamination is $\sim90\%$ of detections, corresponding to $\sim1000$ artifacts/deg$^2$ in $g$ band, and falling to 300 per deg$^2$ in $y$ band. The photometry has biases $<1\%$ for magnitudes $19.5 < m <23$. Our DIA performance on simulated images is similar to that of the Dark Energy Survey pipeline applied to real images. We also characterize DC2 image properties to produce catalog-level simulations needed for distance bias corrections. We find good agreement between DC2 data and simulations for distributions of SNR, redshift, and fitted light-curve properties. Applying a realistic SNIa-cosmology analysis for redshifts $z<1$, we recover the input cosmology parameters to within statistical uncertainties.Item Open Access Supernova Siblings: Assessing the Consistency of Properties of Type Ia Supernovae that Share the Same Parent GalaxiesScolnic, D; Smith, M; Massiah, A; Wiseman, P; Brout, D; Kessler, R; Davis, TM; Foley, RJ; Galbany, L; Hinton, SR; Hounsell, R; Kelsey, L; Lidman, C; Macaulay, E; Morgan, R; Nichol, RC; Möller, A; Popovic, B; Sako, M; Sullivan, M; Thomas, BP; Tucker, BE; Abbott, TMC; Aguena, M; Allam, S; Annis, J; Avila, S; Bechtol, K; Bertin, E; Brooks, D; Burke, DL; Rosell, AC; Carollo, D; Kind, MC; Carretero, J; Costanzi, M; Da Costa, LN; De Vicente, J; Desai, S; Diehl, HT; Doel, P; Drlica-Wagner, A; Eckert, K; Eifler, TF; Everett, S; Flaugher, B; Fosalba, P; Frieman, J; Garciá-Bellido, J; Gaztanaga, E; Gerdes, DW; Glazebrook, K; Gruen, D; Gruendl, RA; Gschwend, J; Gutierrez, G; Hartley, WG; Hollowood, DL; Honscheid, K; James, DJ; Kuehn, K; Kuropatkin, N; Lewis, GF; Li, TS; Lima, M; Maia, MAG; Marshall, JL; Menanteau, F; Miquel, R; Palmese, A; Paz-Chinchón, F; Plazas, AA; Pursiainen, M; Sanchez, E; Scarpine, V; Schubnell, M; Serrano, S; Sevilla-Noarbe, I; Sommer, NE; Suchyta, E; Swanson, MEC; Tarle, G; Varga, TN; Walker, AR; Wilkinson, RWhile many studies have shown a correlation between properties of the light curves of Type Ia SN (SNe Ia) and properties of their host galaxies, it remains unclear what is driving these correlations. We introduce a new direct method to study these correlations by analyzing `parent' galaxies that host multiple SNe Ia 'siblings'. Here, we search the Dark Energy Survey SN sample, one of the largest samples of discovered SNe, and find 8 galaxies that hosted two likely Type Ia SNe. Comparing the light-curve properties of these SNe and recovered distances from the light curves, we find no better agreement between properties of SNe in the same galaxy as any random pair of galaxies, with the exception of the SN light-curve stretch. We show at $2.8\sigma$ significance that at least 1/2 of the intrinsic scatter of SNe Ia distance modulus residuals is not from common host properties. We also discuss the robustness with which we could make this evaluation with LSST, which will find $100\times$ more pairs of galaxies, and pave a new line of study on the consistency of Type Ia supernovae in the same parent galaxies. Finally, we argue that it is unlikely some of these SNe are actually single, lensed SN with multiple images.Item Open Access Synergies between Vera C. Rubin Observatory, Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and Euclid Mission: Constraining Dark Energy with Type Ia SupernovaeRose, BM; Aldering, G; Dai, M; Deustua, S; Foley, RJ; Gangler, E; Gris, Ph; Hook, IM; Kessler, R; Narayan, G; Nugent, P; Ponder, S Perlmutte KA; Racine, B; Rubin, D; Sánchez, BO; Scolnic, DM; Wood-Vasey, WM; Brout, D; Cikota, A; Fouchez, D; Garnavich, PM; Hounsell, R; Sako, M; Tao, C; Jha, SW; Jones, DO; Strolger, L; Qu, HWe review the needs of the supernova community for improvements in survey coordination and data sharing that would significantly boost the constraints on dark energy using samples of Type Ia supernovae from the Vera C. Rubin Observatories, the \textit{Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope}, and the \textit{Euclid} Mission. We discuss improvements to both statistical and systematic precision that the combination of observations from these experiments will enable. For example, coordination will result in improved photometric calibration, redshift measurements, as well as supernova distances. We also discuss what teams and plans should be put in place now to start preparing for these combined data sets. Specifically, we request coordinated efforts in field selection and survey operations, photometric calibration, spectroscopic follow-up, pixel-level processing, and computing. These efforts will benefit not only experiments with Type Ia supernovae, but all time-domain studies, and cosmology with multi-messenger astrophysics.Item Open Access The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Cosmological biases from supernova photometric classificationVincenzi, M; Sullivan, M; Möller, A; Armstrong, P; Bassett, BA; Brout, D; Carollo, D; Carr, A; Davis, TM; Frohmaier, C; Galbany, L; Glazebrook, K; Graur, O; Kelsey, L; Kessler, R; Kovacs, E; Lewis, GF; Lidman, C; Malik, U; Nichol, RC; Popovic, B; Sako, M; Scolnic, D; Smith, M; Taylor, G; Tucker, BE; Wiseman, P; Aguena, M; Allam, S; Annis, J; Asorey, J; Bacon, D; Bertin, E; Brooks, D; Burke, DL; Rosell, A Carnero; Carretero, J; Castander, FJ; Costanzi, M; Costa, LN da; Pereira, MES; Vicente, J De; Desai, S; Diehl, HT; Doel, P; Everett, S; Ferrero, I; Flaugher, B; Fosalba, P; Frieman, J; García-Bellido, J; Gerdes, DW; Gruen, D; Gutierrez, G; Hinton, SR; Hollowood, DL; Honscheid, K; James, DJ; Kuehn, K; Kuropatkin, N; Lahav, O; Li, TS; Lima, M; Maia, MAG; Marshall, JL; Miquel, R; Morgan, R; Ogando, RLC; Palmese, A; Paz-Chinchón, F; Pieres, A; Malagón, AA Plazas; Reil, K; Roodman, A; Sanchez, E; Schubnell, M; Serrano, S; Sevilla-Noarbe, I; Suchyta, E; Tarle, G; To, C; Varga, TN; Weller, J; Wilkinson, RDCosmological analyses of samples of photometrically-identified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) depend on understanding the effects of 'contamination' from core-collapse and peculiar SN Ia events. We employ a rigorous analysis on state-of-the-art simulations of photometrically identified SN Ia samples and determine cosmological biases due to such 'non-Ia' contamination in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year SN sample. As part of the analysis, we test on our DES simulations the performance of SuperNNova, a photometric SN classifier based on recurrent neural networks. Depending on the choice of non-Ia SN models in both the simulated data sample and training sample, contamination ranges from 0.8-3.5 %, with the efficiency of the classification from 97.7-99.5 %. Using the Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) framework and its extension 'BEAMS with Bias Correction' (BBC), we produce a redshift-binned Hubble diagram marginalised over contamination and corrected for selection effects and we use it to constrain the dark energy equation-of-state, $w$. Assuming a flat universe with Gaussian $\Omega_M$ prior of $0.311\pm0.010$, we show that biases on $w$ are $<0.008$ when using SuperNNova and accounting for a wide range of non-Ia SN models in the simulations. Systematic uncertainties associated with contamination are estimated to be at most $\sigma_{w, \mathrm{syst}}=0.004$. This compares to an expected statistical uncertainty of $\sigma_{w,\mathrm{stat}}=0.039$ for the DES-SN sample, thus showing that contamination is not a limiting uncertainty in our analysis. We also measure biases due to contamination on $w_0$ and $w_a$ (assuming a flat universe), and find these to be $<$0.009 in $w_0$ and $<$0.108 in $w_a$, hence 5 to 10 times smaller than the statistical uncertainties expected from the DES-SN sample.Item Open Access The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Modelling selection efficiency and observed core collapse supernova contaminationVincenzi, M; Sullivan, M; Graur, O; Brout, D; Davis, TM; Frohmaier, C; Galbany, L; Gutiérrez, CP; Hinton, SR; Hounsell, R; Kelsey, L; Kessler, R; Kovacs, E; Kuhlmann, S; Lasker, J; Lidman, C; Möller, A; Nichol, RC; Sako, M; Scolnic, D; Smith, M; Swann, E; Wiseman, P; Asorey, J; Lewis, GF; Sharp, R; Tucker, BE; Aguena, M; Allam, S; Avila, S; Bertin, E; Brooks, D; Burke, DL; Rosell, AC; Kind, MC; Carretero, J; Castander, FJ; Choi, A; Costanzi, M; Da Costa, LN; Pereira, MES; De Vicente, J; Desai, S; Diehl, HT; Doel, P; Everett, S; Ferrero, I; Fosalba, P; Frieman, J; Garciá-Bellido, J; Gaztanaga, E; Gerdes, DW; Gruen, D; Gruendl, RA; Gutierrez, G; Hollowood, DL; Honscheid, K; Hoyle, B; James, DJ; Kuehn, K; Kuropatkin, N; Maia, MAG; Martini, P; Menanteau, F; Miquel, R; Morgan, R; Palmese, A; Paz-Chinchón, F; Plazas, AA; Romer, AK; Sanchez, E; Scarpine, V; Serrano, S; Sevilla-Noarbe, I; Soares-Santos, M; Suchyta, E; Tarle, G; Thomas, D; To, C; Varga, TN; Walker, AR; Wilkinson, RDThe analysis of current and future cosmological surveys of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at high-redshift depends on the accurate photometric classification of the SN events detected. Generating realistic simulations of photometric SN surveys constitutes an essential step for training and testing photometric classification algorithms, and for correcting biases introduced by selection effects and contamination arising from core collapse SNe in the photometric SN Ia samples. We use published SN time-series spectrophotometric templates, rates, luminosity functions and empirical relationships between SNe and their host galaxies to construct a framework for simulating photometric SN surveys. We present this framework in the context of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year photometric SN sample, comparing our simulations of DES with the observed DES transient populations. We demonstrate excellent agreement in many distributions, including Hubble residuals, between our simulations and data. We estimate the core collapse fraction expected in the DES SN sample after selection requirements are applied and before photometric classification. After testing different modelling choices and astrophysical assumptions underlying our simulation, we find that the predicted contamination varies from 5.8 to 9.3 per cent, with an average of 7.0 per cent and r.m.s. of 1.1 per cent. Our simulations are the first to reproduce the observed photometric SN and host galaxy properties in high-redshift surveys without fine-tuning the input parameters. The simulation methods presented here will be a critical component of the cosmology analysis of the DES photometric SN Ia sample: correcting for biases arising from contamination, and evaluating the associated systematic uncertainty.Item Open Access The Foundation Supernova Survey: Photospheric Velocity Correlations in Type Ia SupernovaeDettman, Kyle G; Jha, Saurabh W; Dai, Mi; Foley, Ryan J; Rest, Armin; Scolnic, Daniel M; Siebert, Matthew R; Chambers, KC; Coulter, DA; Huber, ME; Johnson, E; Jones, DO; Kilpatrick, CD; Kirshner, RP; Pan, Y-C; Riess, AG; Schultz, ASBThe ejecta velocities of type-Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), as measured by the Si II $\lambda 6355$ line, have been shown to correlate with other supernova properties, including color and standardized luminosity. We investigate these results using the Foundation Supernova Survey, with a spectroscopic data release presented here, and photometry analyzed with the SALT2 light-curve fitter. We find that the Foundation data do not show significant evidence for an offset in color between SNe Ia with high and normal photospheric velocities, with $\Delta c = 0.005 \pm 0.014$. Our SALT2 analysis does show evidence for redder high-velocity SN Ia in other samples, including objects from the Carnegie Supernova Project, with a combined sample yielding $\Delta c = 0.017 \pm 0.007$. When split on velocity, the Foundation SN Ia also do not show a significant difference in Hubble diagram residual, $\Delta HR = 0.015 \pm 0.049$ mag. Intriguingly, we find that SN Ia ejecta velocity information may be gleaned from photometry, particularly in redder optical bands. For high-redshift SN Ia, these rest-frame red wavelengths will be observed by the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. Our results also confirm previous work that SN Ia host-galaxy stellar mass is strongly correlated with ejecta velocity: high-velocity SN Ia are found nearly exclusively in high-stellar-mass hosts. However, host-galaxy properties alone do not explain velocity-dependent differences in supernova colors and luminosities across samples. Measuring and understanding the connection between intrinsic explosion properties and supernova environments, across cosmic time, will be important for precision cosmology with SNe Ia.Item Open Access The Impact of Observing Strategy on Cosmological Constraints with LSSTLochner, Michelle; Scolnic, Dan; Almoubayyed, Husni; Anguita, Timo; Awan, Humna; Gawiser, Eric; Gontcho, Satya Gontcho A; Gris, Philippe; Huber, Simon; Jha, Saurabh W; Jones, R Lynne; Kim, Alex G; Mandelbaum, Rachel; Marshall, Phil; Petrushevska, Tanja; Regnault, Nicolas; Setzer, Christian N; Suyu, Sherry H; Yoachim, Peter; Biswas, Rahul; Blaineau, Tristan; Hook, Isobel; Moniez, Marc; Neilsen, Eric; Peiris, Hiranya; Rothchild, Daniel; Stubbs, ChristopherThe generation-defining Vera C. Rubin Observatory will make state-of-the-art measurements of both the static and transient universe through its Legacy Survey for Space and Time (LSST). With such capabilities, it is immensely challenging to optimize the LSST observing strategy across the survey's wide range of science drivers. Many aspects of the LSST observing strategy relevant to the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration, such as survey footprint definition, single visit exposure time and the cadence of repeat visits in different filters, are yet to be finalized. Here, we present metrics used to assess the impact of observing strategy on the cosmological probes considered most sensitive to survey design; these are large-scale structure, weak lensing, type Ia supernovae, kilonovae and strong lens systems (as well as photometric redshifts, which enable many of these probes). We evaluate these metrics for over 100 different simulated potential survey designs. Our results show that multiple observing strategy decisions can profoundly impact cosmological constraints with LSST; these include adjusting the survey footprint, ensuring repeat nightly visits are taken in different filters and enforcing regular cadence. We provide public code for our metrics, which makes them readily available for evaluating further modifications to the survey design. We conclude with a set of recommendations and highlight observing strategy factors that require further research.Item Unknown The Pantheon+ Analysis: Dependence of Cosmological Constraints on Photometric-Zeropoint Uncertainties of Supernova SurveysBrownsberger, Sasha; Brout, Dillon; Scolnic, Daniel; Stubbs, Christopher W; Riess, Adam GType Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) measurements of the Hubble constant, H$_0$, the cosmological mass density, $\Omega_M$, and the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, $w$, rely on numerous SNe surveys using distinct photometric systems across three decades of observation. Here, we determine the sensitivities of the upcoming SH0ES+Pantheon+ constraints on H$_0$, $\Omega_M$, and $w$ to unknown systematics in the relative photometric zeropoint calibration between the 17 surveys that comprise the Pantheon+ supernovae data set. Varying the zeropoints of these surveys simultaneously with the cosmological parameters, we determine that the SH0ES+Pantheon+ measurement of H$_0$ is robust against inter-survey photometric miscalibration, but that the measurements of $\Omega_M$ and $w$ are not. Specifically, we find that miscalibrated inter-survey systematics could represent a source of uncertainty in the measured value of H$_0$ that is no larger than $0.2$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. This modest increase in H$_0$ uncertainty could not account for the $7$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ "Hubble Tension" between the SH0ES measurement of H$_0$ and the Planck $\Lambda$CDM-based inference of H$_0$. However, we find that the SH0ES+Pantheon+ best-fit values of $\Omega_M$ and $w$ respectively slip, to first order, by $0.04$ and $-0.17$ per $25$ mmag of inter-survey calibration uncertainty, underscoring the vital role that cross-calibration plays in accurately measuring these parameters. Because the Pantheon+ compendium contains many surveys that share low-$z$ Hubble Flow and Cepheid-paired SNe, the SH0ES+Pantheon+ joint constraint of H$_0$ is robust against inter-survey photometric calibration errors, and such errors do not represent an impediment to jointly using SH0ES+Pantheon+ to measure H$_0$ to 1% accuracy.