Browsing by Subject "climate change"
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Item Open Access A Policy Analysis to Reduce Climate Risk in Chicago’s Most Vulnerable Communities(2015-04-22) Gallagher, EileenThis master’s project compares policy options that will most effectively reduce climate risk, specifically flooding, in Chicago’s most vulnerable communities. Chicago is expected to receive heavier and more frequent precipitation due to climate change, increasing upwards to 20 to 30 percent more by the end of the century (Hayhoe, et al, 2010). Unfortunately, over the past several decades, the City’s century-old combined sewer system has failed to protect communities from flooding (Hayhoe, et al, 2010). The City’s sewer system carries sewage and stormwater in the same underground pipe, and it often exceeds its threshold of 2.5 inches of rainfall per day (USGCRP, 2009). Beyond that, the untreated waste and stormwater overflow into the Chicago River and Lake Michigan – the City’s source of drinking water – or onto city streets and into basements (City of Chicago, n.d.b). The City has been investing in infrastructure to combat the increasing frequency of flooding. In 1972, the City unveiled the Tunnel and Reservoir Plan (TARP) to reduce flooding, but several challenges have delayed phases of execution, and it is not expected to be completed until 2029. Until a more sophisticated sewer system is constructed, green and other gray infrastructure can mitigate flooding risks by capturing stormwater. Recognizing this, City of Chicago established the Green Stormwater Infrastructure Strategy in 2014 and plans to release a Citywide Stormwater Management Plan in 2015. The Strategy designates $50 million to fund green stormwater infrastructure projects over five years for existing and planned capital improvement projects, but these projects are not specifically assigned to communities that are the most vulnerable. Although flooding is pervasive throughout Chicago, the most vulnerable populations are most at risk. Vulnerability is described as “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected… including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt” (IPCC, 2014). Experts increasingly recognize that adapting to climate change, and repairing or rebuilding homes and neighborhoods after extreme weather events, will place an additional stress on vulnerable communities. Vulnerability can be measured by the Hardship Index, a collection of six socioeconomic indictors, assessing poverty, crowded housing, unemployment, level of education, age (or dependency), and per capita income (City of Chicago, 2014). In 2014, the City of Chicago evaluated its 77 communities using the Hardship Index, finding that there is an unequal distribution of hardship among different racial and ethnic demographics within the City. This inequitable divide suggests that communities that are majority minority are the most vulnerable, and therefore will likely struggle the most to adapt to climate change. But to date, existing policies do not adequately protect vulnerable communities from climate change. To remedy these challenges, the City of Chicago must institute a sound policy that aims to reduce its climate risk, protect its economy and ensure environmental justice of its most vulnerable communities. Leveraging existing city plans, state initiatives, U.S. presidential executive orders or federal regulations, this project outlines and analyzes three policy options to address the problem in Chicago: 1. Affirmative Action for Vulnerable Communities would encourage the City to “engage in good faith efforts” (UVA EOP, 2012) to proactively assign climate adaptation projects under the Green Stormwater Infrastructure Strategy and Citywide Stormwater Management Plan for vulnerable communities, improving conditions for populations that have historically been discriminated against. 2. Community-based Adaptation for Environmental Justice would localize federal and state environmental justice acts to mandate financing for vulnerable communities, which are often underrepresented in policymaking, to identify the adaptation project of their choosing, thereby strengthening their capacity to adapt to climate change. 3. Discounted Premiums for the Poor expands the existing subsidies offered by the National Flood Insurance Program to cover not only homeowners located in high-risk flood zones but also homeowners under the federal poverty line. The optimal policy should not exacerbate hardship but rather reduce communities’ vulnerability to flooding. Therefore, the three policy options in addition to the status quo are measured against the following goals: 1. Effectiveness: The frequency and volume of flooding should decline, measured by whether the number of flood insurance claims will decrease in the most vulnerable communities as identified by the Hardship Index. 2. Equity: Stakeholders are not unfairly burdened, measured by (1) whether insurance companies will face surmounting financial pressure due to an increasing number of claims and (2) whether neighboring communities will receive excess stormwater runoff as a result of the policy. 3. Political feasibility: Stakeholders support or minimally oppose the policy, measured by (1) whether homeowners in vulnerable communities will tolerate temporary disturbances to install stormwater infrastructure and (2) whether the municipal government will accept budgetary changes. 4. Efficiency: Costs to vulnerable communities are minimized, measured by whether costs exceed the moderate amount of flood insurance premiums. After careful analysis of the three policy alternatives measured against the four aforementioned goals, the City should implement Affirmative Action for Vulnerable Communities to address its climate and socioeconomic challenges. By selecting vulnerable communities as recipients of the committed $50 million for green stormwater infrastructure, the City can curtail flooding in vulnerable communities without additional costs to homeowners. And with improved stormwater management infrastructure, the number of flood insurance claims and runoff into neighboring communities will decrease. There are several other actions the City should take to achieve and maintain political feasibility under this policy. A community-specific needs assessment and a cost-benefit analysis will help to prioritize which stormwater management projects to execute in which of the vulnerable communities. And collaborative stakeholder engagement from municipal departments, nonprofits and community residents is critical to successfully execute the policy. Finally, the City must continue to monitor for climate risk and vulnerability as well as evaluate the policy’s progress. The municipal government should take an adaptive management approach to administrating the policy, which can connect continuous learning with policy implementation and guide administrators to adjust management processes for maximum impact (Williams et al, 2009). Properly managing and ultimately enhancing vulnerable communities’ ability to adapt to a changing climate is critical for the City’s economic, environmental and human wellbeing.Item Open Access “All My Relations” An Ecological Reading of Threefold Christian Scripture to imagine faithful action in a time of climate crisis.(2024) McGlothlin, Jaime LeeThis Doctor of Ministry thesis seeks to address the misapplication of Christian Scripture and its contribution to the climate crisis in which we find ourselves. Ellen Davis calls the Christian duty to delineate a responsible vision of what participation in the renewal of creation might mean the most essential theological task of this generation. This is but one small offering. The solution this thesis proposes is the recovery of the life, death, and resurrection of Jesus as the story of everything, a metanarrative which holds together God and all God has made. This ecological (relational) reading of Scripture finds all of Holy Scripture and reality to follow a threefold wisdom pattern of Creation/Uncreation/New Creation. Recovery of this lens allows us to name the time we are living in and imagine what faithful ecological participation in the larger story might look like.
The methodology used in this paper is narrative theology. Such a theology is advocated by Kavin Rowe and can also be seen in Richard Hays’ reading of New Testament texts as echoes of earlier narratives. NT Wright also suggests the metanarrative of the Resurrection of Christ in framing all ethical action and mission of the Church. Agrarian theological readings of Scripture, such as those offered by Ellen Davis, Wendell Berry, and Norman Wirzba, have also formed my understanding and hearing of Holy Scripture. I also have been shaped by the writing of Orthodox theologian Alexander Schmemann, who explores the liturgy of the Church in worship as the great cosmic story; Christ and the Church are offered “for the life of the world.”
It is this world which is the theme and concern of this thesis, and which much contemporary Christian theology has left behind. It is time to recover the story of a God who so loved the world to bring heaven down to dwell with us.
Item Open Access Applying machine learning to investigate long-term insect-plant interactions preserved on digitized herbarium specimens.(Applications in plant sciences, 2020-06) Meineke, Emily K; Tomasi, Carlo; Yuan, Song; Pryer, Kathleen MPremise:Despite the economic significance of insect damage to plants (i.e., herbivory), long-term data documenting changes in herbivory are limited. Millions of pressed plant specimens are now available online and can be used to collect big data on plant-insect interactions during the Anthropocene. Methods:We initiated development of machine learning methods to automate extraction of herbivory data from herbarium specimens by training an insect damage detector and a damage type classifier on two distantly related plant species (Quercus bicolor and Onoclea sensibilis). We experimented with (1) classifying six types of herbivory and two control categories of undamaged leaf, and (2) detecting two of the damage categories for which several hundred annotations were available. Results:Damage detection results were mixed, with a mean average precision of 45% in the simultaneous detection and classification of two types of damage. However, damage classification on hand-drawn boxes identified the correct type of herbivory 81.5% of the time in eight categories. The damage classifier was accurate for categories with 100 or more test samples. Discussion:These tools are a promising first step for the automation of herbivory data collection. We describe ongoing efforts to increase the accuracy of these models, allowing researchers to extract similar data and apply them to biological hypotheses.Item Open Access Balancing Cost and Emissions Certainty: An Allowance Reserve for Cap-and-Trade(2008-07-15) Murray, BC; Newell, RG; Pizer, WAItem Open Access Climate Change Is Here, but Who Is Paying for It?(2020-06-24) Mulderrig, Conor; Profeta, Timothy; Thompson, ElizabethIn an era of increased political polarization and decreased confidence in national institutions, many bold initiatives have stalled or met an untimely end. This abdication of federal responsibility is no more evident than the ongoing response to COVID-19. Strategic response to the pandemic has largely shifted from the White House to governors’ mansions. A renewed era of federalism is beginning to take shape, and it is important to consider potential ramifications in other pressing areas—specifically climate change. State and local governments have advanced their own initiatives on climate change when faced with a failure of federal leadership. States have launched climate strategies to combat this growing threat both individually and in coalition. However, in order to mitigate and develop resiliency to climate change, much more needs to be done. This analysis will look at one aspect of the challenge: understanding costs. Resource management for states with ever-thin operational budgets is already logistically daunting without the massive investment in preventative measures needed to meaningfully combat climate change. Where do they start? Do states across the board have the technical capacity to understand what impacts they have already been facing? The resounding answer at this current moment is no.Item Open Access Co-occurring woody species have diverse hydraulic strategies and mortality rates during an extreme drought.(Plant Cell Environ, 2018-03) Johnson, Daniel M; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Carter Berry, Z; Schwantes, Amanda M; McCulloh, Katherine A; Woodruff, David R; Wayne Polley, H; Wortemann, Remí; Swenson, Jennifer J; Scott Mackay, D; McDowell, Nate G; Jackson, Robert BFrom 2011 to 2013, Texas experienced its worst drought in recorded history. This event provided a unique natural experiment to assess species-specific responses to extreme drought and mortality of four co-occurring woody species: Quercus fusiformis, Diospyros texana, Prosopis glandulosa, and Juniperus ashei. We examined hypothesized mechanisms that could promote these species' diverse mortality patterns using postdrought measurements on surviving trees coupled to retrospective process modelling. The species exhibited a wide range of gas exchange responses, hydraulic strategies, and mortality rates. Multiple proposed indices of mortality mechanisms were inconsistent with the observed mortality patterns across species, including measures of the degree of iso/anisohydry, photosynthesis, carbohydrate depletion, and hydraulic safety margins. Large losses of spring and summer whole-tree conductance (driven by belowground losses of conductance) and shallower rooting depths were associated with species that exhibited greater mortality. Based on this retrospective analysis, we suggest that species more vulnerable to drought were more likely to have succumbed to hydraulic failure belowground.Item Open Access Community-scale changes to landfast ice along the coast of Alaska over 2000-2022(Environmental Research Letters, 2024-02-01) Cooley, SW; Ryan, JCLandfast sea ice that forms along the Arctic coastline is of great importance to coastal Alaskan communities. It provides a stable platform for transportation and traditional activities, protects the coastline from erosion, and serves as a critical habitat for marine mammals. Here we present a full assessment of landfast ice conditions across a continuous 7885 km length of the Alaska coastline over 2000-2022 using satellite imagery. We find that the maximum landfast ice extent, usually occurring in March, averaged 67 002 km2 during our study period: equivalent to 4% of the state’s land area. The maximum extent of landfast ice, however, exhibits considerable interannual variability, from a minimum of 29 871 km2 in 2019 to a maximum of 87 571 km2 in 2010. Likewise, the landfast ice edge position averages 22.9 km from the coastline but, at the community-scale, can range from 2.8 km (in Gambell) to 71.1 km (in Deering). Landfast ice breakup date averages 2 June but also varies considerably both between communities (3 May in Quinhagak to 24 July in Nuiqsut) and interannually. We identify a strong control of air temperature on breakup timing and use this relationship to project future losses of ice associated with Paris Climate Agreement targets. Under 2 °C of global air temperature warming, we estimate the average Alaskan coastal community will lose 19 days of ice, with the northernmost communities projected to lose 50 days or more. Overall, our results emphasize the highly localized nature of landfast ice processes and the vulnerability of coastal Arctic communities in a warming climate.Item Open Access Creating Data as a Service for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Reservoirs(2018-01-11) Patterson, Lauren; Doyle, Martin; Kuzma, SamanthaItem Open Access Defining Extreme Heat as a Hazard: A Review of Current State Hazard Mitigation Plans(2023-04-20) Ward, Ashley; Clark, JordanHeat is the leading cause of weather-related death in the United States. Each US state must have a FEMA-approved state hazard mitigation plan (SHMP) to be eligible for certain non-emergency disaster funds and funding for mitigation projects. Many US states are in the process of updating their plans; however, a review of each SHMP as it exists now reveals the challenge states face in adequately incorporating heat as a hazard. This report assesses the treatment and definition of heat as a hazard in each state’s plan. Furthermore, it offers supplemental information for states in parallel with the latest FEMA guidance for SHMPs that went into effect April 19, 2023. This analysis found that the importance of extreme heat is often understated in plans. Only 25 states had a dedicated section for extreme heat, with 18 having heat combined with cold or drought. Current FEMA guidelines for SHMPs would be strengthened by further modernization of existing risk identification processes. This is critical for extreme heat since it is rarely defined by discrete events and is instead chronic and subtle. The latest FEMA guidance is more specific in requiring climate change to be factored into hazard identification. However, current state plans do not adequately incorporate climate change when addressing extreme heat. This report offers four specific recommendations that provide a roadmap for states to adequately assess the effects of extreme heat: ⋅ Defining heat as a hazard by combining climate and health outcome data ⋅ Accounting for the hazard-specific vulnerabilities of their population ⋅ Incorporating climate change ⋅ Developing appropriate and feasible mitigation strategiesItem Open Access Department of the Interior Nature-Based Solutions Roadmap(2023-12-11) Warnell, Katie; Mason, Sara; Siegle, Aaron; Merritt, Melissa; Olander, LydiaThis comprehensive resource, created in collaboration with the US Department of the Interior, is a first-of-its-kind reference for implementing nature-based solutions (NBS). Nature-based solutions are actions to protect, sustainably manage, or restore natural or modified ecosystems to address societal challenges—including climate change—in ways that help people and the environment. Examples cited in the Roadmap range from urban stormwater and runoff management to prescribed burns to living shorelines to restoration of various ecosystems. Nature-based solutions require planning and design specific to each site and strategy being employed, but some principles and considerations apply in every case. The first section of the Roadmap offers information on these cross-cutting principles and considerations, including community engagement, application of Indigenous Knowledges, equity and environmental justice, funding sources, and common barriers. The bulk of the nearly 500-page Roadmap is devoted to details 29 individual NBS strategies. Each strategy summary contains these elements: * A list of likely benefits, including climate threat reduction, socioeconomic and ecological benefits * Example projects from throughout the United States * Links to additional tools, training and resources for project planning, implementation and monitoring * Details about site suitability, how the strategy is implemented on the ground, and operations and maintenance needs This living document is part of the Nature-Based Solutions project at the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability. Explore more NBS content, including fact sheets on each of the strategies in the Roadmap.Item Open Access Ecological restoration of rich fens in Europe and North America: from trial and error to an evidence-based approach.(Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc, 2015-02) Lamers, Leon PM; Vile, Melanie A; Grootjans, Ab P; Acreman, Mike C; van Diggelen, Rudy; Evans, Martin G; Richardson, Curtis J; Rochefort, Line; Kooijman, Annemieke M; Roelofs, Jan GM; Smolders, Alfons JPFens represent a large array of ecosystem services, including the highest biodiversity found among wetlands, hydrological services, water purification and carbon sequestration. Land-use change and drainage has severely damaged or annihilated these services in many parts of North America and Europe; restoration plans are urgently needed at the landscape level. We review the major constraints on the restoration of rich fens and fen water bodies in agricultural areas in Europe and disturbed landscapes in North America: (i) habitat quality problems: drought, eutrophication, acidification, and toxicity, and (ii) recolonization problems: species pools, ecosystem fragmentation and connectivity, genetic variability, and invasive species; and here provide possible solutions. We discuss both positive and negative consequences of restoration measures, and their causes. The restoration of wetland ecosystem functioning and services has, for a long time, been based on a trial-and-error approach. By presenting research and practice on the restoration of rich fen ecosystems within agricultural areas, we demonstrate the importance of biogeochemical and ecological knowledge at different spatial scales for the management and restoration of biodiversity, water quality, carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services, especially in a changing climate. We define target processes that enable scientists, nature managers, water managers and policy makers to choose between different measures and to predict restoration prospects for different types of deteriorated fens and their starting conditions.Item Open Access Elasticity of population growth with respect to the intensity of biotic or abiotic driving factors(ECOLOGY, 2017-04) Lee, Charlotte TItem Open Access Encouraging clean energy investment in developing countries: what role for aid?(Climate Policy, 2014-10-10) Buntaine, MT; Pizer, WAA large portion of foreign assistance for climate change mitigation in developing countries is directed to clean energy facilities. To support international mitigation goals, however, donors must make investments that have effects beyond individual facilities. They must reduce barriers to private-sector investment by generating information for developers, improving relevant infrastructure, or changing policies. We examine whether donor agencies target financing for commercial-scale wind and solar facilities to countries where private investment in clean energy is limited and whether donor investments lead to more private investments. On average, we find no positive evidence for these patterns of targeting and impact. Coupled with model results that show feed-in tariffs increase private investment, we argue that donor agencies should reallocate resources to improve policies that promote private investment in developing countries, rather than finance individual clean energy facilities.Item Open Access Environmental and Technology Policy Options in the Electricity Sector: Interactions and Outcomes(2014-04-14) Fischer, Carolyn; Newell, Richard G; Preonas, LouisItem Open Access Environmental Impact Investing in Real Assets: What Environmental Measures Do Fund Managers Consider?(2017-06-30) Spence, Liz; Copp, Belton; Kent, Xander; Vermeer, Dan; Doyle, MartinAs concerns over climate change and natural resource depletion grow, investors have begun seeking opportunities for generating both market-rate financial returns and quantifiable environmental gains. Investing with the objectives of social or environmental return is often referred to as impact investing. Measuring and reporting the environmental impact of such investing is becoming of greater interest to environmental managers and investors. This report presents findings from interviews of investment fund managers of environmental real assets—defined here as real assets that rely on ecological systems to generate cash flows (e.g., timber, agriculture, fisheries, water rights). The interviews reveal little consistency in how environmental returns are measured and reported. Importantly, most of the environmental metrics are not designed to allow for evaluation of funds’ environmental performance. Hence, investors are unable to distinguish among funds in terms of environmental returns. Moreover, investors are also generally uninterested in such information. In short, impact investors seek environmental impact funds so long as they have risk-adjusted, market-rate returns regardless of environmental performance. To better evaluate the environmental returns of impact investments, whether real assets or other types of investments, fund managers and investors should directly engage the environmental science and operations management community. That community could offer insights to help ensure that investments are delivering and reporting on promise and that capital is being steered toward effective projects and opportunities.Item Open Access Exploring Past and Future Distributions of the Rare Appalachian Oak Fern Using MaxEnt Modeling(American Fern Journal, 2023-06-16) Hay, NM; Akinwuntan, JV; Cai, V; Windham, MD; Pryer, KMAbstract . Anthropogenic climate change is projected to have an especially negative impact on the survival of plants that are dependent on limited microclimatic refugia or that already reside at their climatic extreme. Gymnocarpium appalachianum is a narrowly endemic fern restricted to cold mountaintops and algific vents in the central and southern Appalachian region of eastern North America. It is the much rarer of the two documented diploid parents of the circumboreal allotetraploid G. dryopteris - one of the most widespread fern species on the planet. Gymnocarpium appalachianum is a good case study for forecasting how evolutionarily significant, but rare, species might survive on a warming planet. We utilize an ecological niche modeling approach (MaxEnt) to explore the projected distribution of G. appalachianum under past (Last Glacial Maximum) and future climate models. All known verified herbarium records of G. appalachianum were georeferenced, for a total of 70 occurrence points. Nineteen standard bioclimatic variables extracted from WorldClim were used to model near-current climate projections; representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) were used for future climate projections (2070). The temperature annual range, mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of driest month, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean diurnal range were identified as the key variables for shaping the distribution of G. appalachianum. An unanticipated result from our analyses is that G. appalachianum has past and current projected habitat suitability in Alaska. Because this overlaps with the current range of G. disjunctum, the other diploid parent of G. dryopteris, it suggests a possible region of origin for this circumboreal tetraploid descendent of G. appalachianum - a research avenue to be pursued in the future. Our study envisions a dire fate for G. appalachianum; its survival will likely require an urgent contingency plan that includes human-mediated population relocation to cooler, northern locations. Understanding the long-term sustainability of narrowly endemic plants such as G. appalachianum is critical in decisions about their management and conservation.Item Open Access Federal Grants to States: Opportunities for Climate Change Assessment, Planning, Programs, and Information Exchange(2020-06-24) Profeta, Timothy; Symons, JeremyThe COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the critical relationship between the federal and state governments’ response to nationwide crisis. More than anything else, the ability of state leaders to respond ably and nimbly to the specific challenges of their jurisdictions has come to the fore and probably reoriented the federal/state relationship for years to come. The lessons we learn from the mobilization in response to the COVID disaster should be applied as we prepare for another disaster that is putting increasing demands on state and federal resources: climate change. With states and the federal government all having essential roles to fulfill in the response to national disasters, an effective federal-state partnership should be at the heart of a nationwide climate strategy. This partnership should have many components. In this policy brief, we focus on one critical component that can and should be moved on quickly as part of any federal program to address climate change: the expansion of federal/state grant programs that support state governments in climate change assessment, planning, programs, and information exchange. This conversation is particularly apt as the nation considers what types of public investment will help spur the economy into recovery from impact of the COVID pandemic.Item Open Access Genomic characterization of the evolutionary potential of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis facing ocean acidification.(Genome Biol Evol, 2017-01-12) Runcie, Daniel E; Dorey, Narimane; Garfield, David A; Stumpp, Meike; Dupont, Sam; Wray, Gregory AOcean acidification (OA) is increasing due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and poses a threat to marine species and communities worldwide. To better project the effects of acidification on organisms' health and persistence an understanding is needed of (1) the mechanisms underlying developmental and physiological tolerance, and (2) the potential populations have for rapid evolutionary adaptation. This is especially challenging in non-model species where targeted assays of metabolism and stress physiology may not be available or economical for large-scale assessments of genetic constraints. We used mRNA sequencing and a quantitative genetics breeding design to study mechanisms underlying genetic variability and tolerance to decreased seawater pH (-0.4 pH units) in larvae of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis We used a gene ontology-based approach to integrate expression profiles into indirect measures of cellular and biochemical traits underlying variation in larval performance (i.e., growth rates). Molecular responses to OA were complex, involving changes to several functions such as growth rates, cell division, metabolism, and immune activities. Surprisingly, the magnitude of pH effects on molecular traits tended to be small relative to variation attributable to segregating functional genetic variation in this species. We discuss how the application of transcriptomics and quantitative genetics approaches across diverse species can enrich our understanding of the biological impacts of climate change.Item Open Access Getting Humans Off Monkeys' Backs: Using Primate Acclimation as a Guide for Habitat Management Efforts.(Integrative and comparative biology, 2020-05-29) Thompson, Cynthia L; Williams, Susan H; Glander, Kenneth E; Teaford, Mark F; Vinyard, Christopher JWild primates face grave conservation challenges, with habitat loss and climate change projected to cause mass extinctions in the coming decades. As large-bodied Neotropical primates, mantled howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata) are predicted to fare poorly under climate change, yet are also known for their resilience in a variety of environments, including highly disturbed habitats. We utilized ecophysiology research on this species to determine the morphological, physiological, and behavioral mechanisms howlers employ to overcome ecological challenges. Our data show that howlers at La Pacifica, Costa Rica are capable of modifying body size. Howlers displayed reduced mass in warmer, drier habitats, seasonal weight changes, frequent within-lifetime weight fluctuations, and gradual increases in body mass over the past four decades. These within-lifetime changes indicate a capacity to modify morphology in a way that can impact animals' energetics and thermodynamics. Howlers are also able to consume foods with a wide variety of food material properties by altering oral processing during feeding. While this capability suggests some capacity to cope with the phenological shifts expected from climate change and increased habitat fragmentation, data on rates of dental microwear warns that these acclimations may also cost dental longevity. Lastly, we found that howlers are able to acclimate to changing thermal pressures. On shorter-term daily scales, howlers use behavioral mechanisms to thermoregulate, including timing activities to avoid heat stress and utilizing cool microhabitats. At the seasonal scale, animals employ hormonal pathways to influence heat production. These lines of evidence cumulatively indicate that howlers possess morphological, physiological, and behavioral mechanisms to acclimate to environmental challenges. As such, howlers' plasticity may facilitate their resilience to climate change and habitat loss. While habitat loss in the tropics is unlikely to abate, our results point to a potential benefit of active management and selective cultivation to yield large, interconnected forest fragments with targeted phenology that provides both a complex physical structure and a diversity of food sources. These steps could assist howlers in using their natural acclimation potential to survive future conservation threats.Item Open Access Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers(Environmental Research Letters, 2022-01-01) Parsons, LA; Masuda, YJ; Kroeger, T; Shindell, D; Wolff, NH; Spector, JTHumid heat impacts a large portion of the world's population that works outdoors. Previous studies have quantified humid heat impacts on labor productivity by relying on exposure response functions that are based on uncontrolled experiments under a limited range of heat and humidity. Here we use the latest empirical model, based on a wider range of temperatures and humidity, for studying the impact of humid heat and recent climate change on labor productivity. We show that globally, humid heat may currently be associated with over 650 billion hours of annual lost labor (148 million full time equivalent jobs lost), 400 billion hours more than previous estimates. These differences in labor loss estimates are comparable to losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Globally, annual heat-induced labor productivity losses are estimated at 2.1 trillion in 2017 PPP$, and in several countries are equivalent to more than 10% of gross domestic product. Over the last four decades, global heat-related labor losses increased by at least 9% (>60 billion hours annually using the new empirical model) highlighting that relatively small changes in climate (<0.5 C) can have large impacts on global labor and the economy.