Browsing by Subject "ecological niche modeling"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Exploring Past and Future Distributions of the Rare Appalachian Oak Fern Using MaxEnt Modeling
    (American Fern Journal, 2023-06-16) Hay, NM; Akinwuntan, JV; Cai, V; Windham, MD; Pryer, KM
    Abstract . Anthropogenic climate change is projected to have an especially negative impact on the survival of plants that are dependent on limited microclimatic refugia or that already reside at their climatic extreme. Gymnocarpium appalachianum is a narrowly endemic fern restricted to cold mountaintops and algific vents in the central and southern Appalachian region of eastern North America. It is the much rarer of the two documented diploid parents of the circumboreal allotetraploid G. dryopteris - one of the most widespread fern species on the planet. Gymnocarpium appalachianum is a good case study for forecasting how evolutionarily significant, but rare, species might survive on a warming planet. We utilize an ecological niche modeling approach (MaxEnt) to explore the projected distribution of G. appalachianum under past (Last Glacial Maximum) and future climate models. All known verified herbarium records of G. appalachianum were georeferenced, for a total of 70 occurrence points. Nineteen standard bioclimatic variables extracted from WorldClim were used to model near-current climate projections; representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) were used for future climate projections (2070). The temperature annual range, mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of driest month, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean diurnal range were identified as the key variables for shaping the distribution of G. appalachianum. An unanticipated result from our analyses is that G. appalachianum has past and current projected habitat suitability in Alaska. Because this overlaps with the current range of G. disjunctum, the other diploid parent of G. dryopteris, it suggests a possible region of origin for this circumboreal tetraploid descendent of G. appalachianum - a research avenue to be pursued in the future. Our study envisions a dire fate for G. appalachianum; its survival will likely require an urgent contingency plan that includes human-mediated population relocation to cooler, northern locations. Understanding the long-term sustainability of narrowly endemic plants such as G. appalachianum is critical in decisions about their management and conservation.
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.
    (Ecol Evol, 2015-03) Brown, Jason L; Yoder, Anne D
    Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.