Browsing by Subject "global warming"

Scientists expect temperatures on Earth to get substantially warmer over the course of the 21st century, causing storm systems to intensify and sea-level rise to accelerate--these changes will likely have dramatic impacts on how the coastlines of tomorrow will evolve. Humans are also playing an increasingly important role in shaping Earth's coastal systems. Coastal scientists have only a general understanding of how these three factors--humans, storms, and sea-level rise--will alter the evolution of coastlines over the coming century, however. I conduct numerical modeling experiments to shed light on the relative importance of these factors on the evolution of coastline geomorphology.

In a series of experiments using a numerical model of large-scale (1 to 100's km) and long-term (years to centuries) coastline evolution that results from gradients in alongshore sediment transport, I explore how the patterns and rates of shoreline erosion and accretion are affected by shifts in 'wave climate' (the mix of influences on alongshore sediment transport of waves approaching from different directions) induced by intensified storm systems and the direct manipulation of the shoreline system by humans through beach nourishment (periodically placing sand on an eroding beach). I use a cuspate-cape coastline, similar to the Outer Banks, North and South Carolina, USA, as an important case study in my experiments. I observe that moderate shifts in the wave climate can alter the patterns of shoreline erosion and accretion, potentially increasing migration rates by several times that which we see today, and nearly an order-of-magnitude larger than sea-level rise-related erosion alone. I also find that under possible wave climate futures, beach nourishment may also induce shoreline change on the same order of magnitude as does sea-level rise.

The decision humans make whether or not to nourish their beach often depends upon a favorable economic outcome in the endeavor. In further experiments, I couple a cost-benefit economic model of human decision making to the numerical model of coastline evolution and test a hypothetical scenario where two communities (one 'rich' and one 'poor') nourish their beaches in tandem, under different sets of economic and wave climate parameters. I observe that two adjacent communities can benefit substantially from each other's nourishment activity, and these effects persist even if the two communities are separated by several tens of kilometers.

In a separate effort, I employ techniques from dynamic capital theory coupled to a physically-realistic model of coastline evolution to find the optimum time a community should wait between beach nourishment episodes ('rotation length') to maximize the utility to beach-front property owners. In a series of experiments, I explore the sensitivity of the rotation length to economic parameters, including the discount rate, the fixed and variable costs of beach nourishment, and the benefits from beach nourishment, and physical parameters including the background erosion rate and the exponential rate at which both the cross-shore profile and the plan-view coastline shape re-adjusts following a beach nourishment episode ('decay rate' of nourishment sand). Some results I obtained were expected: if property values, the hedonic value of beach width, the baseline retreat rate, the fixed cost of beach nourishment, and the discount rate increase, then the rotation length of nourishment decreases. Some results I obtained, however, were unexpected: the rotation length of nourishment can either increase or decrease when the decay rate of nourishment sand varies versus the discount rate and when the variable costs of beach nourishment increase.

Ice shelf coverage in Antarctica is declining due to recent global warming. The northern part of Larsen Ice Shelf, the Larsen A in the Weddell Sea, has been decreasing since the 19th century and in 2000 finally disappeared. Ice shelf coverage decrease should dramatically enhance biological productivity in surface water and organic matter flux to the seafloor. This dissertation examines sources of organic matter to sediments, indicators of labile organic matter flux increase due to the ice-shelf collapse, and potential subsequent impacts of changing ocean productivity on the sedimentary microbial community in the sediment cores taken across a 170-year chronoseries of ice-shelf loss, five-transect stations. Characterizing lipid biomarkers, phytoplankton (rather than terrestrially derived organic material) was identified as the major source of organic matter in the sediments, as previously found in other nearshore Antarctic regions. The predominance of C16, C18, and C20 fatty acids, 24-methylenecholesterol, sitosterol, and 13C-enriched sea-ice diatom biomarker (C25:2 HBIs) indicate the importance of organic matter inputs from sea-ice diatom communities that become more dominant as the prevalence of sea ice coverage once the ice shelf disappears. Bacterial and Archaeal lipids were second and third largest lipid sources. These lipids could be sourced from the water column and in situ production as well as former ice shelf and ice-rafted debris. Using the vertical lipid distributions, diagenetic models were applied to estimate the pelagic lipid flux before and after the ice shelf collapse. The results suggest that the rapid increase in flux due to the ice shelf disintegration, but further characterization of degradation rates need to be undertaken to increase confidence in the magnitude of this increased flux. Lipid flux increase may induce a shift in the microbial community structure in the sediments. Multivariate analyses identified that the organic matter content and δ13CTOC values, relative abundances of labile and recalcitrant lipid biomarkers, and concentrations of nitrogen species are important factors that correlate with downcore and cross-shelf microbial community composition. Enriched organic matter content (electron donor) may influence the microbial community through the decreased availability of electron acceptors in the sediments. The quality of the organic matter may also influence the microbial community: microbes that use recalcitrant organic matter shift to phytodetritus degraders as more-labile organic matter is delivered to the seabed following ice-shelf collapse. These results will offer a new perspective on the potential impacts of the ice-shelf disintegration to the subseafloor environment. Further investigations are needed to quantify the flux increase and microbial degradation rates of organic matter to expand the knowledge on influences of glacier melt on biogeochemical cycle.