Browsing by Subject "semimartingale"

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    Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Accuracy Using High Frequency Data
    (Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper, 2013-07-06) Li, J; Patton, AJ
    This paper provides a general framework that enables many existing inference methods for predictive accuracy to be used in applications that involve forecasts of latent target variables. Such applications include the forecasting of volatility, correlation, beta, quadratic variation, jump variation, and other functionals of an underlying continuous-time process. We provide primitive conditions under which a "negligibility" result holds, and thus the asymptotic size of standard predictive accuracy tests, implemented using a high-frequency proxy for the latent variable, is controlled. An extensive simulation study verifies that the asymptotic results apply in a range of empirically relevant applications, and an empirical application to correlation forecasting is presented.
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    Data-Driven Jump Detection Thresholds for Application in Jump Regressions
    (Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID), 2015-09-17) Tauchen, GE; Davies, R
    This paper develops a method to select the threshold in threshold-based jump detection methods. The method is motivated by an analysis of threshold-based jump detection methods in the context of jump-diffusion models. We show that over the range of sampling frequencies a researcher is most likely to encounter that the usual in-fill asymptotics provide a poor guide for selecting the jump threshold. Because of this we develop a sample-based method. Our method estimates the number of jumps over a grid of thresholds and selects the optimal threshold at what we term the “take-off” point in the estimated number of jumps. We show that this method consistently estimates the jumps and their indices as the sampling interval goes to zero. In several Monte Carlo studies we evaluate the performance of our method based on its ability to accurately locate jumps and its ability to distinguish between true jumps and large diffusive moves. In one of these Monte Carlo studies we evaluate the performance of our method in a jump regression context. Finally, we apply our method in two empirical studies. In one we estimate the number of jumps and report the jump threshold our method selects for three commonly used market indices. In the other empirical application we perform a series of jump regressions using our method to select the jump threshold.