Browsing by Subject "wildfire"
Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
- Results Per Page
- Sort Options
Item Open Access Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment(Environmental Research Letters, 2016-03-07) Abbott, BW; Jones, JB; Schuur, EAG; Chapin, FS; Bowden, WB; Bret-Harte, MS; Epstein, HE; Flannigan, MD; Harms, TK; Hollingsworth, TN; Mack, MC; McGuire, AD; Natali, SM; Rocha, AV; Tank, SE; Turetsky, MR; Vonk, JE; Wickland, KP; Aiken, GR; Alexander, HD; Amon, RMW; Benscoter, BW; Bergeron, Y; Bishop, K; Blarquez, O; Bond-Lamberty, B; Breen, AL; Buffam, I; Cai, Y; Carcaillet, C; Carey, SK; Chen, JM; Chen, HYH; Christensen, TR; Cooper, LW; Cornelissen, JHC; De Groot, WJ; Deluca, TH; Dorrepaal, E; Fetcher, N; Finlay, JC; Forbes, BC; French, NHF; Gauthier, S; Girardin, MP; Goetz, SJ; Goldammer, JG; Gough, L; Grogan, P; Guo, L; Higuera, PE; Hinzman, L; Hu, FS; Hugelius, G; Jafarov, EE; Jandt, R; Johnstone, JF; Karlsson, J; Kasischke, ES; Kattner, G; Kelly, R; Keuper, F; Kling, GW; Kortelainen, P; Kouki, J; Kuhry, P; Laudon, H; Laurion, I; MacDonald, RW; Mann, PJ; Martikainen, PJ; McClelland, JW; Molau, U; Oberbauer, SF; Olefeldt, D; Paré, D; Parisien, MA; Payette, S; Peng, C; Pokrovsky, OS; Rastetter, EB; Raymond, PA; Raynolds, MK; Rein, G; Reynolds, JF; Robards, M; Rogers, BM; Schdel, C; Schaefer, K; Schmidt, IK; Shvidenko, A; Sky, J; Spencer, RGM; Starr, G; Striegl, RG; Teisserenc, R; Tranvik, LJ; Virtanen, T; Welker, JM; Zimov, SAs the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.Item Open Access Powering the Future, Restoring the Past: An ecological assessment of long-term woody biomass utilization for energy in the McCloud watershed of Northern California(2013-04-26) Garland, JustinThe forests of the Klamath-Cascade region of California are some of the most diverse and productive coniferous forests in the world. However, decades of fire suppression threaten the region's ecological complexity and the ability of forests to adapt to a changing climate. A biomass power plant sited in the McCloud River watershed could drive forest restoration efforts while leveraging clean and efficient power generation technologies. A successful ecologically-driven comprehensive restoration and management plan for the McCloud watershed could reduce wildfire threat, develop local energy independence and drive regional economic development. U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data were extrapolated across the public lands within the watershed using geospatial stand-level data provided by the U.S. Forest Service Region 5. Stands where biomass harvesting was deemed impractical or ecologically harmful were removed from the analysis. The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) was used to model two different small-diameter stem removal treatments. Over the anticipated 40-year project horizon of a woody biomass power plant, the model predicts an average of between 11,828 to 23,768 bone dry tons (BDT) of biomass could be removed from the watershed annually, providing sufficient fuel to operate a 2.29 to 4.61 megawatt power plant. Such a program would reduce the threat of fire moving into the canopy, but would do little to lessen the forest's ability to sustain a fire once in the canopy. The modeling shows high levels of uncertainty. The causes of this uncertainty, as well as suggestions for future research, are discussed.Item Open Access Quantification of the Health Impacts Associated with Fine Particulate Matter due to Wildfires(2008-04-24T16:18:09Z) Douglass, Rachel L.Wildfires can be devastating to property and the ecological landscape; they also have a substantial impact on human health and welfare. Wildfires emit a variety of air pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM2.5), coarse particulate matter (PM10), volatile organic compounds, as well as nitrogen and sulfur oxides. Fine particles (PM2.5) have been linked to many cardiovascular and respiratory problems such as premature death, heart attacks, asthma exacerbation, and acute bronchitis. This project focuses on quantifying the incidence and monetary value of adverse human health impacts resulting from wildfire emissions of PM2.5 in the Pacific Northwest during the summer of 2007. Using a combination of tools, including geospatial analysis and a benefits assessment tool developed by U.S. EPA (BenMAP), this project investigates the changes in incidence of certain health outcomes resulting from the change in air quality attributable to wildfire. The changes in incidence can then be given a dollar value using valuation functions to highlight the magnitude of the health effects caused by PM2.5 wildfire emissions. In light of current climate change predictions, PM2.5 wildfire emissions may be expected to increase in the future.Item Open Access Quantifying the Economic Risk of Wildfires and Power Lines in San Diego County(2014-04-25) Johnson, JesseSan Diego Gas & Electric Company has proposed retrofits to seven of its transmission lines to reduce the lines’ potential for igniting fires and to increase their ability to withstand damage from wildfires. Since the company’s ratepayers will ultimately pay for the cost of these retrofits through electricity rates, the benefit of the projects in terms of wildfire risk reduction is a matter of public policy interest. This study estimates the range of potential monetary losses that the company could incur due to wildfires and compares those losses to the costs of the transmission line retrofits as a means of evaluating their risk reduction benefit. The study uses a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the losses for the company from wildfires in a given year. The model outputs the number of ignitions from the transmission lines, the acreage of the resulting wildfires, the property damage caused by those fires, the length of transmission line damaged by wildfires, and the costs of repairing those lines. The model is parameterized using empirical observations of transmission lines ignitions, wildfire sizes, and property values for San Diego County. Results suggest that although the expected value of losses is not large enough to justify the investment in the retrofits, the high risk of losses (driven by rare but extremely damaging events) may justify the investment. The transmission lines in closest proximity to populated areas are the best candidates for retrofits. The study provides a possible framework for regulators and electric utilities to discuss the public benefit of safety-related infrastructure investments as part of the regulatory process.